India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

INC ad.  Note how INC tries to reclaim the legacy of Sardar Patel, Ambedkar, Subhas Chandra Bose, Lal Bahadur Shastri, and Narasimha Rao.  All of them had had various run-ins with the Nehru-Gandhi clan and some of them had left INC because of it.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/delhi-dy-chief-minister-manish-sisodia-arrested-in-excise-policy-case-kejriwal-slams-dirty-politics-1195271.html

"Delhi Dy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia arrested in excise policy case, Kejriwal slams 'dirty politics'"

Delhi AAP DCM arrest for corruption.  AAP cries foul.

[OSR stands with Israel]

INC ad.  Note how INC tries to reclaim the legacy of Sardar Patel, Ambedkar, Subhas Chandra Bose, Lal Bahadur Shastri, and Narasimha Rao.  All of them had had various run-ins with the Nehru-Gandhi clan and some of them had left INC because of it.

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

[jaichind]

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

Well, if your family is from Gujarat then, of course, they are going to say that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

Well, if your family is from Gujarat then, of course, they are going to say that.

Yes they are but they think if Patel was the first PM then India may not have gone as much down in the socialist direction and would not be anywhere near nepotistic.

[jaichind]

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

Well, if your family is from Gujarat then, of course, they are going to say that.

Yes they are but they think if Patel was the first PM then India may not have gone as much down in the socialist direction and would not be anywhere near nepotistic.

Well, as someone from the Right of course I would prefer Patel over Nehru.  I actually think the real point of diversion was the sudden death of Shastri in 1966.  Had he lived then he would have avoided Indira Gandhi's 1970s left-wing shift as well as the installation of the Gandhi clan as a permanent leader of INC.

[jaichind]

Voting over in Nagaland and Meghalaya.  Jan Ki Baat claims they will have exit polls for all 3 NE states soon.

[jaichind]

Axis My India Tripura Exit Poll - BJP retains power.  Looking at seat count it seems they have BJP sweeping Bengali seats and holding their own in tribal seats

BJP        36-45(45%)
LEFT+     6-11(32%)
TIPRA     9-16(20%)

[jaichind]

Meghalaya Zee news - Matrize exit polls

NPP : 21-26
AITC : 8-13
BJP : 6-11
INC : 3-6
OTH : 10-19

Looks pretty close to my prediction but with BJP outperforming and UDP underperforming

[jaichind]

Axis My India Meghalaya  Exit Pol

NPP : 18-24
BJP : 4-8
INC : 6-12
AITC  5-9
OTH : 4-8

They have INC totally outperforming and AITC and UDP underperforming

[jaichind]

Nagaland Zee news - Matrize exit polls. NDPP-BJP landslide was not as big as expected.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat is pretty close to their pre-election poll for Tripura  I call BS.  If the Left Front-INC vote share is similar to BJP-IPFT then given the low vote share of Left Front-INC in tribal areas then it would be a Left Front-INC sweep in Bengali areas which are now what the seat count shows.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for Meghalaya.  NPP underperforms.  INC overperforms  

[jaichind]

Axis My India for all 3 NE states

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for Nagaland

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Lok Poll has it closer in Tripura
https://twitter.com/LokPoll/status/1630212911800147969

But anti-BJP Democracy Times has BJP-IPFT with clear majority
https://twitter.com/TimesDemocracy/status/1630209553861345282

[jaichind]

Times Now exit poll for Tripura does have BJP-IPFT short of a majority

BJP-IPFT          21-27
Left Front-INC  18-24
TIPRA              12-17
Others               1-2

[jaichind]

Times Now exit poll for Meghalaya

NPP       18-26     24.7% 
AITC       8-14     16.09%
UDP        8-14     14.02%
BJP         3-6       12.08%
INC        ?      12.01%
PDF       ?        6.01%
VPPP     ?        1.06%

[jaichind]

The general sense from exit polls

a) BJP-IPFT is a bit better than expected in Tripura with a good chance at majority. Still exit polls tend to overestimate incumbents so not clear that this is a lock
b) NDPP-BJP mega landslide in Nagaland failed to materialize.  They will get the majority but there is clear opposition on the ground even if scattered
c) NPP most likely underperformed in Meghalaya which means even if NPP forms the government it will be messy

[jaichind]

Pro-INC anti-BJP Lok poll exit polls for Meghalaya and Nagaland

https://twitter.com/LokPoll/status/1630274232746934274
https://twitter.com/LokPoll/status/1630253008222322688

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times exit poll for Meghalaya

https://twitter.com/TimesDemocracy/status/1630257131281850368

[jaichind]

Axis My India Tripura Exit Poll - BJP retains power.  Looking at seat count it seems they have BJP sweeping Bengali seats and holding their own in tribal seats

BJP        36-45(45%)
LEFT+     6-11(32%)
TIPRA     9-16(20%)

More detailed version

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of exit polls

Tripura (60)
BJP+             32
Left-INC        15
TIPRA            12
Others              1

Nagaland (60)
NDPP-BJP      42
NPF                6
INC                1
Others          11

Meghalaya (60)
NPP             20
AITC           11
UDP            10
BJP              6
INC               6
Others          7

[jaichind]

Detailed Axis My India exit poll for Nagaland

[jaichind]

Detailed Axis My India exit poll for Meghalaya