Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

Mail ballot returns update:

States that have DEMS with better return rates:
Nebraska: D 55.9% - R 48.9%
Pennsylvania: D 59.2% - R 55.4%
New Mexico: D 54.3% - R 50.9%
Arizona: D 34.0% - R 31.2%
New Jersey: D 48.9% - D 47.0%
Kansas: D 35.3% - R 33.6%
North Carolina: D 38.7% - R 37.7%

States that are about EVEN with return rates:
Colorado: R 15.0% - D 14.9%
Maine: R 70.2% - D 70.1%
Connecticut: R 56.6% - D 56.1%

States that have REPS with better return rates:
California: R 12.7% - D 11.5%
Oregon: R 19.2% - D 16.9%
Maryland: R 47.7% - D 45.0%
Iowa: R 76.0% - D 72.3%
Florida: R 49.7% - D 43.7%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter in CA and MD Wes Moore is gonna win by a landslide

[RI]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Yeah, I'm cautious to believe the TargetSmart model, but with nearly 700K votes in, it looks nearly identical to 2020, and better than 2018...

Is there any other source of info for WA that is good?

[Pink Panther]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

[Unelectable Bystander]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

I have a question on a related topic, and pollster or anybody else with knowledge on this can jump in if they know the answer. Without giving away any proprietary info, what exactly goes into these party preference models?

My assumption is that they are classifiers which input things like age, race, geography, primary preference, and maybe other demographic items like type of home. I see many examples of states where these variables are entirely in the republicans’ favor, yet target smart has democrats over-performing based on their model. Is there a variable outside of the ones I mentioned that strongly predicts party preference which we aren’t seeing, and that strongly favors democrats right now?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1587270632454164482?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1587297202912874502?s=20&t=QIVcuG9...

Looking better for Dems in NV today. Still waiting on mail from this weekend.

[RI]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

My mom is the campaign manager for this one person who ran a couple years back for county-level office and lost but is now running for city council (which she'll likely win). Are you thinking of something like that?

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't get why people are Dooming on OH I can see FL but Sherrod Brown has to win anyways in 24 and he is campaign for Whaley and Ryan, the Polls underestimate the blk, Muslim and female vote and Sherrod Brown win in 2018 because Trump isn't on the ballot we are the Dogs but it's a difference between declaring a Dog and throw OH in the trash

We can all Doom on OH should Ryan loses but I still have Donated Center Street Pac not Tim Ryan that gives money to Fetterman, McMullin, Kelly too and they probably gonna endorse Ruben Gallego and Brown should Gallego run in 24 for Senate

Just like users like S019 Doom on WI there were multiple polls yesterday and a MQK coming out tomorrow Barnes up two Evers down 4 and then of course we got that ridiculous Johnson plus 8 number, 4 and 2 pts is MOE

That's why after 50 D seats it's called wave insurance anyways, 51 and up will help Ds solidify the S for 24 ANYWAYS

We don't have to win a single R state to win the S NH, NV, GA, AZ will give us a 51/50 Senate but UT, FL, WI, PA, NC and OH are vulnerable

We're gonna win PA and GA or WI for 51/49 Fox power rankings have that but what if OH, NC, UT come in for Da

[SnowLabrador]

Georgia

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

So in short, Warnock's probably going to lose based on the early vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Georgia

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

So in short, Warnock's probably going to lose based on the early vote.

Lol.its a Runoff state stop Dooming beforee next Tuesday, neither candidates are hitting 50 percent, it's good to be optimistic until ALL THE RACES ARE CALL ARENT YOU A RED NOT BLUE AVATAR YOU SOUND VERY MUCH LIKE S019 BUT HE IS MORE DOOMERISH

[Pink Panther]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

That sucks, but as you've alluded to yourself, you've set yourself up for any other potential offices down the line. I offer yourself good luck for your future endeavors, if that helps at all.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Is there still no Clark mail drop?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Is there still no Clark mail drop?

According to Ralston? Nope. 

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

So in short, Warnock's probably going to lose based on the early vote.

Runoff. I have internal polling from both state parties and/or adjoining committees over the past 5-10 days that show the 2 candidates within a point of each other. Can't share (yet), but we're on track for a <1-point plurality that won't decide anything until December.

[bilaps]

Small mail-in ballot batch counted in Clark County, NV

D 3,783 (51.3%)
R 1,908 (25.9%)
O 1,057 (14.3%)
= 7,376

Total to date = 148,134
Dem 73,010 (49.3%) +35,767
Rep 37,243 (25.1%)
Other 37,243 (25.1%)

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1587459365061029890

Not good for Dems. They need bigger batches and bigger margins. Their lead now is below 8% in Clark.

[It’s so Joever]

Even Ralston admits this is good for Republicans. That should tell you a lot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nc-early-voting-beating-2018-225110246.html

Early voting is beating 2018 norms and the Senate race is 44/43 Budd

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587464538831478786?s=20&t=0A7_u4j...

This looks not great, folks.

[RI]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

My mom is the campaign manager for this one person who ran a couple years back for county-level office and lost but is now running for city council (which she'll likely win). Are you thinking of something like that?

Yeah, something like that. I don't know what opportunities will come up, but I'll keep my eyes open. Maybe a city or county level position.

I've made solid allies with some traditionally left-leaning groups who want to back me going forward, so it'll just be about finding the right time and place. Until then, I'm going to work on improving my resume and community involvement.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587464538831478786?s=20&t=0A7_u4j...

This looks not great, folks.

Finally, after years of being led on it looks like things are gonna go well in NV.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587464538831478786?s=20&t=0A7_u4j...

This looks not great, folks.

Finally, after years of being led on it looks like things are gonna go well in NV.

Lots of time left before the election, I for sure wouldn’t count NV as gone for Ds.

With that being said yes the EV looks a bit better for Rs than it has historically at this point. If the EV continues to trend well for Rs then that would be a very ominous sign for Dems.