UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

[Torrain]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

Aye - think they hit 9% on an Omnisis poll today. Will be interesting to see whether there's any momentum here - particularly in upcoming by-elections, or whether it's a mirage caused by disgruntled Tory base voters.

[TheTide]

Tice is probably a better media performer than Farage. The problem for him is that he can't get any media coverage.

[YL]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

Aye - think they hit 9% on an Omnisis poll today. Will be interesting to see whether there's any momentum here - particularly in upcoming by-elections, or whether it's a mirage caused by disgruntled Tory base voters.

I don't think either City of Chester or Stretford & Urmston is the best sort of seat for them, but even so if they're really on 8% or 9% nationally (which I doubt) they ought to make some sort of showing.

[CumbrianLefty]

West Lancashire might actually be a slightly better prospect for them than either of those.

(but I still wouldn't go overboard)

[Joe Republic]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

But why?  They went from being a single-issue pro-Brexit party to a single-issue anti-lockdown party, to... what next?

[Tintrlvr]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

But why?  They went from being a single-issue pro-Brexit party to a single-issue anti-lockdown party, to... what next?

Some right-wing Tory voters who feel put off by the stitch-up for Sunak, perhaps.

[Torrain]

But why?  They went from being a single-issue pro-Brexit party to a single-issue anti-lockdown party, to... what next?

They've been thrashing around looking for a new identify for a while - initially coalescing around a referendum on Net-Zero carbon emissions (trying to forment anti-green sentiment, on an economic basis - and presumably get themselves some of that sweet Koch cash in the process). They're anti-green, anti-House of Lords, anti-BBC, anti-wasteful spending (but can't give clear examples), anti-immigration, and anti-tax. This week, they came out in favour of opencast coal-mining in closed Durham mines.

In short, they are trying to position themselves as the clear protest party of the Right. Unlike in 2019, they're planning to run candidates everywhere, but have recognised that Tory-held seats represent their natural constituency. They've signed up 5,000 members in the weeks since Truss resigned - which doesn't sound like much, but is significant in the scale of British party members, when the Tories only have about 140K members.

The Telegraph has a write-up of the party from the past week, and the Spectator covers them quite regularly. Both papers (on the British Right), seem fairly positive on them, and open to their campaign - although that's probably more about putting rightward pressure on the Conservatives than any meaningful change in loyalties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This week, they came out in favour of opencast coal-mining in closed Durham mines.

Who do they think that would appeal to? Opencast pits are very unpopular in the former coalfields as a rule, especially in Durham where there's been a small but clear electoral penalty for politicians who are in favour.

[JimJamUK]

It does seem a bit random that they’ve suddenly surged. Yes, Sunak polls quite poorly with a lot of more cultural conservative voters, but Truss was just hideously unpopular with everyone and it didn’t result in Reform closing in on double digits in any polls. And it’s not like Reform have suddenly gotten loads of media that led to a polling bounce. My best guess is that they’ve benefitted to some extent from the increasing focus on immigration, which like 2010-2016 sees the Conservatives bang on about it but not actually do much to solve the problems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But why?

Rishi Sunak is... aha... not particularly well-placed to appeal to a particular section of the electorate that both May and Johnson made a huge effort to win over. It isn't a large section, but it has been a useful one to them. Though some of it would also just be the base grumbling, and that's less likely to end up as 'real', I'd have thought. Anyway, it's only some very new and fairly sketchy polling outfits that have shown them in the high single digits, so it's hard to know for sure how real any of it is.

[JimJamUK]

Who do they think that would appeal to? Opencast pits are very unpopular in the former coalfields as a rule, especially in Durham where there's been a small but clear electoral penalty for politicians who are in favour.

There does seem to be some people on the right who don’t realise why coal mining was popular in coal mining communities in the first place. It was popular because it employed a large share of the community and provided an economic basis for its existence. Open cast coal mining employs a dozen commuters from Newcastle while visibly destroying the local environment. Why would there be enthusiastic support for that?

[CumbrianLefty]

Greens also seem to be going up in some recent polls - the perception (even if not massively justified in reality) that the two main parties have moved closer together again may be a factor here.

[Pericles]

As well as losing their advantage on the economy, the Tories have alienated their base by failing to stop the Channel boats and not cutting the overall levels of immigration. Now that Brexit is done, anti-immigration voters aren't getting what they hoped for from the Tories. If the Tories were going to ditch their economic promises, they at least had to be good at the culture war. That, plus all their other problems, mean there are a lot of right-wing voters who don't like the government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

As well as losing their advantage on the economy, the Tories have alienated their base by failing to stop the Channel boats and not cutting the overall levels of immigration. Now that Brexit is done, anti-immigration voters aren't getting what they hoped for from the Tories. If the Tories were going to ditch their economic promises, they at least had to be good at the culture war. That, plus all their other problems, mean there are a lot of right-wing voters who don't like the government.

[Blair]

J****n W**B of Radio 4 form fame has a rather hilariously awful about the midterms where he somehow gets two mentions in about trans rights (basically complaining the Democrats did too well and won’t now argue about these issues affecting them).

Has he always been like this?

 I’ve always hated him on Radio 4- I remember him lambasting Rachel Reeves for not supporting a domestic tax cut on short haul flights under the claim ‘well working class families fly to Scotland don’t they?- she reminded him not many of her constituents in Leeds would be spending £350 quid on flights.

[Torrain]

Obviously not the most important part of the services today - but 7 ex-PMs were present at the Cenotaph today, for the first time ever. It's going to be strange seeing Truss at all these national events for the next 40 years.

[CumbrianLefty]

J****n W**B of Radio 4 form fame has a rather hilariously awful about the midterms where he somehow gets two mentions in about trans rights (basically complaining the Democrats did too well and won’t now argue about these issues affecting them).

Has he always been like this?

 I’ve always hated him on Radio 4- I remember him lambasting Rachel Reeves for not supporting a domestic tax cut on short haul flights under the claim ‘well working class families fly to Scotland don’t they?- she reminded him not many of her constituents in Leeds would be spending £350 quid on flights.

Webb has been obnoxious for a long time, yes.

And some might contrast his seeming freedom to say whatever he wants with the recent treatment of BBC newsreader Martine Croxall after she dared to express amusement over BoJo.

[Blair]

Obviously not the most important part of the services today - but 7 ex-PMs were present at the Cenotaph today, for the first time ever. It's going to be strange seeing Truss at all these national events for the next 40 years.

Very strange to think we could easily have 9 former prime Ministers living if both Sunak & Starmer are out of office in the next decade.

[Joe Republic]

Obviously not the most important part of the services today - but 7 ex-PMs were present at the Cenotaph today, for the first time ever. It's going to be strange seeing Truss at all these national events for the next 40 years.

Very strange to think we could easily have 9 former prime Ministers living if both Sunak & Starmer are out of office in the next decade.

*** INANE TRIVIA ATLAS BRAIN ENGAGED ***

What's the record for most living former PMs?  Surely we're currently living in it?

[Lumine]

*** INANE TRIVIA ATLAS BRAIN ENGAGED ***

What's the record for most living former PMs?  Surely we're currently living in it?

1964 - after the General Election - comes to mind as coming somewhat close, as you had Atlee and four consecutive Tory PMs (Churchill, Eden, Macmillan and a recently beaten Douglas Home), but that's still only five.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if there was a higher number at some point c. 1800-1830 due to a number of short-serving (but long-lived) Prime Ministers.

[brucejoel99]

Obviously not the most important part of the services today - but 7 ex-PMs were present at the Cenotaph today, for the first time ever. It's going to be strange seeing Truss at all these national events for the next 40 years.

If she makes it 45 more, to 2067's when she'd be 92, she'll end up commemorating more Remembrance Sundays as an ex-PM than she spent days in office as the incumbent.

[YL]

*** INANE TRIVIA ATLAS BRAIN ENGAGED ***

What's the record for most living former PMs?  Surely we're currently living in it?

1964 - after the General Election - comes to mind as coming somewhat close, as you had Atlee and four consecutive Tory PMs (Churchill, Eden, Macmillan and a recently beaten Douglas Home), but that's still only five.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if there was a higher number at some point c. 1800-1830 due to a number of short-serving (but long-lived) Prime Ministers.

There are quite a few periods with five:
- several between 1976 and 1995, with some combination of Eden, Macmillan, Home, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher
- a period in the 1920s, with Rosebery, Balfour, Asquith, Lloyd George and whichever of MacDonald and Baldwin wasn't PM
- a period in the 1830s and 1840s with Addington, Goderich, Wellington, Grey and whichever of Peel and Melbourne wasn't PM.
- at the beginning of Pitt the Younger's term you had Portland, Shelburne, North, Grafton and Bute.

You could argue that there were briefly six in certain interregna in the middle two of those, e.g. on 4 November 1924 between MacDonald's resignation and Baldwin accepting office.

[CumbrianLefty]

So it was never more than five until recently? Slightly surprising if so.

It would be interesting to know the record number in, say, Australia (which had a few PMs with even shorter tenures than Liz "Jane Grey" Truss)

[Wiswylfen]

Thoughts on the North East's revised boundary proposals. Mostly about the names, because the nonsensical variation rules have to be accounted for in any criticism of boundaries themselves.

Whitley Bay and Cramlington was a monstrosity and will not be missed. The proposed Cramlington and Killingworth constituency makes a lot more sense. Backworth and Shiremoor used to be in Seaton Valley until the reorganisation of local government in the 1970s, and were in Blyth constituency until the 1983 boundary changes. I personally favour the name Seaton Valley for the seat, though it's still in use by a parish council, and have suggested changing the name to that on the Boundary Commission website.

The name of a constituency doesn't need to include every town within its boundaries, nor should it. 'X and X' constituency names are ugly and overused. Berwick-upon-Tweed is fine as it is, no need to add Morpeth to the name (let alone Alnwick as some were suggesting). "Gateshead and Whickham" is ridiculous: Whickham is in Gateshead! "Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend" gets a pass, it crosses a local authority boundary and the name was around 1997-2010. "Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West" cannot be taken seriously. The only 'central' part of the constituency is Monument ward; the rest is West End or Outer West.

Also, "Middlesbrough and Thornaby East" has six times as many electors in Middlesbrough as it does in Thornaby. Another pointless 'X and X' name.