UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

The likes of Braverman can never fail, only be failed. Remember that and it all falls into place.

So what you’re saying is - true communism Brexit Braverman has never been tried?

[Blair]

With the mid-terms coming up did anyone see the hilarious take on Twitter.com about how the US democrats would somehow dominate UK Politics?

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics, or more hilariously UK politicos going over to the US*- a lib dem by-election team would cause carnage.


*Fun fact- it was a British TU official who helped get the Romney 47% comment tape out there...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The complete horrified surprise at quite how effective leaflet-bombing different lines to different parts of the district being contested would be would be quite special, I think.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

With the mid-terms coming up did anyone see the hilarious take on Twitter.com about how the US democrats would somehow dominate UK Politics?

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics, or more hilariously UK politicos going over to the US*- a lib dem by-election team would cause carnage.


*Fun fact- it was a British TU official who helped get the Romney 47% comment tape out there...

I mean a certain tory MP worked the Mcgovern campaign and came up with the line "we won the argument". There's always been a certain amount of political flow between the countries.

[TheTide]

Gavin Williamson almost certainly has the Caro LBJ collection in the drawers next to his bed. That's about the only sentence in which it's appropriate to mention both him and LBJ.

[brucejoel99]

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics

Jim Messina & David Axelrod c. 2015 certainly can.

[Silent Hunter]

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics

Jim Messina & David Axelrod c. 2015 certainly can.

Messina succeeded too - Cameron won an overall majority, the first for the Tories since 1992. Axelrod for Labour saw their near-complete wipeout in Scotland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Messina also worked on Theresa May's campaign in 2017...

[EastAnglianLefty]

Stan Greenberg worked for Blair in 2001 and apparently had a freakout we were going to lose Shepherd's Bush because he saw the morning turnout figures. We won it with a 10,000 majority and I suspect the only reason he'd been sent there was to keep him out of the way.

[CumbrianLefty]

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics

Jim Messina & David Axelrod c. 2015 certainly can.

Messina succeeded too - Cameron won an overall majority, the first for the Tories since 1992. Axelrod for Labour saw their near-complete wipeout in Scotland.

I recall Labour complaints at the time that Axelrod's commitment to the task was rather perfunctory.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, the "honeymoon" was fun while it lasted I guess.

[Blair]

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics

Jim Messina & David Axelrod c. 2015 certainly can.

In the case of Axelrod he certainly wasn’t involved in the day to day at all- he offered some vague advice around messaging!

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, the "honeymoon" was fun while it lasted I guess.

Another poll shows the Tories "only" 18 points behind.

I do suspect they were hoping for slightly better all told.

[Silent Hunter]

In other news, David Icke has been banned from the Schengen Area.

[Torrain]

Gavin Williamson resigns as Minister Without Portfolio, with a classic ‘I’ve become a distraction’ non-apology:

Williamson becomes the 80th minister to leave the government via resignation/dismissal in 2022.

I presume PMQs will still end up leaning into a discussion of Sunak’s claims about restoring ‘integrity’ to government.

[Torrain]

It strikes me that today's been a rather good day for Christian Wakeford:

• He's been confirmed as the Labour candidate for Bury South at the next election.
• He's on track to be the only Red Wall MP who'll survive the next election, if current polling holds.
• Gavin Williamson, who harassed Wakeford hard enough he crossed the floor, has been fired, and faces several formal investigations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good whipping is applied sociopathy, not applied evil. Williamson, quite obviously, has never been able to tell the difference.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some sad news: Sir David Butler, Britain's leading postwar psephologist and famous for being the numbers and analysis man on the BBC's election coverage for many decades, has died. He was 98.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not a terribly comfortable PMQs for Sunak today after last night's developments.

He might just recall the old saying about dogs and fleas right now.

[Zinneke]

He surely doesn't have the political capital to survive a budget full of bad news, the hapless Home Secretary and an NHS winter crisis?

[Torrain]

Guardian reports Sunak was briefed on the Williamson allegations:

Rishi Sunak is facing scrutiny over whether he knew about Gavin Williamson’s alleged bullying of a senior civil servant whom he told to “cut your throat” before reappointing him to government.

Two sources claimed the prime minister had been alerted to Williamson’s “credible and substantiated bad behaviour” while defence secretary when he drew up his cabinet.

One of them said Sunak was given a “general description” of the alleged bullying incident at the Ministry of Defence but gave Williamson a job regardless.

Sunak made a specific point to say he was unaware of “specific” allegations against Williamson in the Commons today - but if there’s weight to this, I’d expect the SNP and Lib Dems to pivot into “the PM misled the House” mode.

[CumbrianLefty]

He surely doesn't have the political capital to survive a budget full of bad news, the hapless Home Secretary and an NHS winter crisis?

But they can't change their PM *again*, surely. Not until early 2024, if then - getting yet somebody else in not long before a GE that year could be the final "Hail Mary" pass for the Tories.

[Joe Republic]

Some sad news: Sir David Butler, Britain's leading postwar psephologist and famous for being the numbers and analysis man on the BBC's election coverage for many decades, has died. He was 98.

He died the day after Leslie Phillips, also 98.

[Torrain]

A number of polls (R&W, Deltapoll, etc) have been released over the last few days - general assumption seems to be that the national picture is stabilising.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1590792858961084419
I'm sure the Autumn Statement will end up making waves in a week's time, but any Sunak honeymoon really does seem to have faded - along with the 30 point Truss polling deficit cut to a mere 20 points. Guess it remains to be seen whether the Government will be rewarded or punished in the polls for the "tough decisions" we keep hearing will have to be made...