2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)
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Author Topic: 2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)  (Read 85183 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1500 on: June 07, 2022, 09:54:28 PM »
In MS-3 I am predicting a Guest vs Cassidy Runoff where Guest will lose.
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #1501 on: June 07, 2022, 09:55:14 PM »
Guest now at 51.2% with 76% in. He should hold on.

Palazzo otoh is probably DOA in the runoff.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1502 on: June 07, 2022, 09:55:20 PM »
Guest losing would really be a reflection how cultish much of the GOP has become.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1503 on: June 07, 2022, 09:55:24 PM »
Guest*: 22,277 (51.2%)
Cassidy: 19,025 (43.7%)
77% IN
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1504 on: June 07, 2022, 09:55:47 PM »
Quote from: Unelectable Bystander on June 07, 2022, 09:52:58 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on June 07, 2022, 09:14:35 PM


While it’s certainly hilarious to see a D incumbent be labeled lean R, what is he seeing here that makes Nunn some kind of titan?
Right on cue! Thanks mate see my Post above!
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7,052,770
Harry
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« Reply #1505 on: June 07, 2022, 09:56:40 PM »
Quote from: Fremont MP theflyingmongoose on June 07, 2022, 09:55:24 PM
Guest*: 22,277 (51.2%)
Cassidy: 19,025 (43.7%)
77% IN

Oh cool
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1506 on: June 07, 2022, 09:59:05 PM »
Axne's seat was probably Lean R no matter who the nominee was. It's an R district with a not-at-all strong incumbent.
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1507 on: June 07, 2022, 10:00:13 PM »
Quote from: bunkerposter on June 07, 2022, 09:59:05 PM
Axne's seat was probably Lean R no matter who the nominee was. It's an R district with a not-at-all strong incumbent.
Axne barely won in 2020 in a D-Friendly Environment!
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1508 on: June 07, 2022, 10:00:42 PM »
Are the Passaic results on NYT accurate? Can't imagine Selen is actually only getting 3% there, even though DeGroot should win the county in the end.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1509 on: June 07, 2022, 10:00:44 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on June 07, 2022, 09:55:47 PM
Quote from: Unelectable Bystander on June 07, 2022, 09:52:58 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on June 07, 2022, 09:14:35 PM


While it’s certainly hilarious to see a D incumbent be labeled lean R, what is he seeing here that makes Nunn some kind of titan?
Right on cue! Thanks mate see my Post above!

Tbf it is a narrow Trumps seat which really doesn't bode well for Axne.

However representing a narrow Trump seat in the State Senate isn't anything particuarly impressive. Both Axne and Nunn are a bit overrated electorally IMO but just given the nature of the seat and the year Lean R seems fair.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1510 on: June 07, 2022, 10:05:10 PM »
Fun fact: "Maryland Matt" Rosendale's 'main' primary challenger was born in the same town as Jon Tester (Havre) and also grew up on a farm in that area!
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Shilly
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« Reply #1511 on: June 07, 2022, 10:05:35 PM »
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #1512 on: June 07, 2022, 10:11:06 PM »
The Iowa Senate D map is really weird. Fink winning the far east, west and north, Franken everywhere else. Something to do with media markets?
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Matty
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« Reply #1513 on: June 07, 2022, 10:14:26 PM »
Holy sh**t!

Asif mahmoud is at an astounding 47.6% of the vote '

young kim at 32

raths at 19
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1514 on: June 07, 2022, 10:15:03 PM »
Quote from: Matty on June 07, 2022, 10:14:26 PM
Holy sh**t!

Asif mahmoud is at an astounding 47.6% of the vote '

young kim at 32

raths at 19

Apparently this is just absentees. Should get more Republican as more votes are counted.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #1515 on: June 07, 2022, 10:15:23 PM »
Quote from: Matty on June 07, 2022, 10:14:26 PM
Holy sh**t!

Asif mahmoud is at an astounding 47.6% of the vote '

young kim at 32

raths at 19

Does Kim have a path still?

Oh I get it, that’s a democrat
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1516 on: June 07, 2022, 10:16:33 PM »
Quote from: Horus on June 07, 2022, 10:11:06 PM
The Iowa Senate D map is really weird. Fink winning the far east, west and north, Franken everywhere else. Something to do with media markets?

Finks district was in the Northeast region of the state so that could explain those counties, the Eastern part of the state is much more polarized so the average Dem primary voter is likely more liberal and younger in that area. The most interesting region to me is the Southeast corner where Fink is winning quite a few counties, my main theory is because it's very simillar area to much of what she represented in her district.

Frankens base of strongest support seems to be concentrated around the greater Des Moines media market
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1517 on: June 07, 2022, 10:19:34 PM »
Instacall for Newsom lol
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1518 on: June 07, 2022, 10:22:48 PM »
Young Kim has already an 8,000 Vote lead over Raths from the Orange County Absentees. I've a hard time seeing how she could not be in the Top 2.

Calling this for Mahmoud & Kim!
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1519 on: June 07, 2022, 10:24:40 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on June 07, 2022, 10:22:48 PM
Young Kim has already an 8,000 Vote lead over Raths from the Orange County Absentees. I've a hard time seeing how she could not be in the Top 2.

Calling this for Mahmoud & Kim!

Tbf we don't know where those absentees are coming from in her district which is very diverse. I'd say that seems most likely as of now though but I tend to be cautious with these Cali districts.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #1520 on: June 07, 2022, 10:25:18 PM »
It looks like the CA-SEN special won't have a runoff.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1521 on: June 07, 2022, 10:25:25 PM »
Quote from: bunkerposter on June 07, 2022, 09:59:05 PM
Axne's seat was probably Lean R no matter who the nominee was. It's an R district with a not-at-all strong incumbent.

Yeah, Lean R is a totally fair rating but the rationale here is stupid. It's not like they're going to move Malinowski to Lean D just because he won his primary with 95% of the vote.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1522 on: June 07, 2022, 10:26:13 PM »
Calling CA-GOV for Newsom and Dahle!
Calling CA-SOS for Weber and Bernosky!
Calling CA-SEN for Padilla and Meuser!
Calling CA-LT GOV for Kounalakis and Jacobs!


Uncalled:

CA-AG
CA-Controller
CA-Insurance Commissioner
CA-Superintendent
CA-Treasurer
All Contested CA U.S. House
IA-Auditor R
MT-1 R
MT-2 L
NM-Attorney General D
NM-LT Gov. R
NM-Auditor D
NM-Treasurer D
NJ-5 R
NJ-11 R
MS-2 R
MS-3 R
MS-4 R Slot 2
TX-15 D
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1523 on: June 07, 2022, 10:26:38 PM »
One thing to look out for is if Rs get any significant chunk of the vote in very very hyper blue LA and Bay Area districts.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1524 on: June 07, 2022, 10:28:35 PM »
Very little is in but Valadao could be in trouble. If he loses the primary Rs are in real trouble in this district.
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