2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

Only far left radicals and those you Personaly recognize as "Democrats" deserve to be called this??? Interesting approach....

Well, yes. But if I were to romanticize about it, at least half the party wouldn't be "real Democrats". I'm talking about the actual priorities of the Democrats' agenda.

Build Back Better? He helped water it down.

Codify Roe? Against that.

Marijuana decrim? Nope.

PRO Act? Nah.

He's not as egregious as Schrader, but this guy sucks. The anti-leftists argue like he's Jared Golden! On an objective level, looking at his record, Cuellar is not a Democrat because he nearly uniquely does not support Democratic policies.

He doesn't support LIBERAL Democratic policies. He is a relatively conservative (only relatively - no comparison with really conservative Democrats of the past) Democrat. You equate "being Democrat" with "being very liberal" or even "radical". Probably - millions of Democrats will beg to differ...

Silence, Republican!

These radical Democrats are trying to not renominate Democrats that work against stated Democratic Party priorities.
How dare they engage in electoral politics!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN will follow the lead of the AP and will not call PA-SEN R in advance of formal certification of the result.

[Greedo punched first]

Will the CAGOP be so incompetent that the primary vote is split enough to make Democrat Dan O’Dowd finish second in the primary?

[Badger]

CNN finally projects McLeod-Skinner in OR-5!

That Donkey Network still claims that they are the "Most Trusted News Leader".

I have my doubts though.

When it comes US Politics they sound like an leftwing Propaganda Network it the mould of MSDNC!

Those certainly are words

[ProgressiveModerate]

One primary I'll be watching is NJ-08 which is the district in which my mom lives.

Robert Menendez, the son of a certain US senator is running in the Democratic primary to replace outgoing rep Albio sires. He faces 2 challengers: Ocampo Grajales and Roseborough-Eberhard.

Robert Menendez obviously has the name recognition and most of the national D support, but not necessarily for the better. Both of his challengers a bit more anti-establishment but not the AOC squad level.

The thing is neither of the other Ds has really run that strong of a campaign and neither is seen as the clear alternative to Menendez; they're likely to split the anti-Menendez vote.

My guess is Menendez could fall below 50% but the other 2 Ds split the vote causing Menendez to ultimately win pretty much no matter what. This will really be a test of how far endorsements by national leaders and various groups can actually go.

My mom who I've helped turn into a reliable voter will be voting against Menendez but hasn't decided which of the Dems she will vote for (and in all honestly may just check whatever box because it's not Menendez).

I could def see Menendez facing a more aggressive and organized primary threat later in the decade.

This really is a shame. NJ-08 seems like the kind of district that would be good for a rising star who'd represent a very diverse district but instead we're going to end up with a political legacy.

NJ-08 will obviously be Safe D in the GE though I am surprised the new config "only" went to Biden by 44%. This likely has to do with much of this district being pretty low turnout and Bayonne being somewhat close politically due to being White Working Class and more separate from NYC similar to Staten Island sorta.

[Senator Incitatus]

Menendez is fairly safe and I'd be surprised if he fell under 65%. His challengers aren't seriously campaigning as far as I've seen and his father isn't unpopular in that particular district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Menendez is fairly safe and I'd be surprised if he fell under 65%. His challengers aren't seriously campaigning as far as I've seen and his father isn't unpopular in that particular district.

Prolly wishful thinking on my part given I tend to not like political legacies and am not a fan of Menendez, but in the Jersey City/Hoboken area, Menendez seems like quite a notorious name. If any progressive challenger wants to knock off Menendez, their core of support likely needs to be out of this area, especially Hoboken. This issue is Menendez is likely to run up the margins everywhere else.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

NJ is REALLY unfriendly territory for primary challenges. Gottheimer's challenger was endorsed by Sanders last time and still didn't come close. Donald Payne Jr. has a hard-boiled left challenger this time, while Republican Chris Smith is being challenged by Trumpers, and neither one seems to be in any danger.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

NJ is REALLY unfriendly territory for primary challenges. Gottheimer's challenger was endorsed by Sanders last time and still didn't come close. Donald Payne Jr. has a hard-boiled left challenger this time, while Republican Chris Smith is being challenged by Trumpers, and neither one seems to be in any danger.

Can confirm. It says a lot that even after the crap he pulled, Democrats still couldn't find anyone to take on Gottheimer this cycle.

Like not even a Squad-type who would get shellacked.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Menendez could have been beaten in 2018 tbh

[Senator Incitatus]

Menendez is fairly safe and I'd be surprised if he fell under 65%. His challengers aren't seriously campaigning as far as I've seen and his father isn't unpopular in that particular district.

Prolly wishful thinking on my part given I tend to not like political legacies and am not a fan of Menendez, but in the Jersey City/Hoboken area, Menendez seems like quite a notorious name. If any progressive challenger wants to knock off Menendez, their core of support likely needs to be out of this area, especially Hoboken. This issue is Menendez is likely to run up the margins everywhere else.

If you mean relative to the rest of the district, sure, but the district as a whole is very favorable territory for the "Menendez name." His weaknesses in the rest of the state don't stick here. And I'll echo what has been said elsewhere regarding the difficulty of mounting a primary challenge in NJ.

I'd expect Menendez to stay in office for a couple decades if he wants.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/06/jessica-cisneros-ruben-ramirez-henry-cuellar-texas-recount/amp/

TX-15 D is in a recount. DDNN will not issue a call until the recount is complete.

A recount has also been requested for TX-28 D. DDNN previously called this race for Cuellar and stands by that call based on the notable vote gap in this race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling PA-SEN R for Oz.

[NOVA Green]

CNN finally projects McLeod-Skinner in OR-5!

That Donkey Network still claims that they are the "Most Trusted News Leader".

I have my doubts though.

When it comes US Politics they sound like an leftwing Propaganda Network it the mould of MSDNC!

Those certainly are words

Yeah... no idea whatever the OP was referencing in his random rant, but it is interesting that basically the new OR CD-05 effectively has shown an overwhelming Progressive DEM vote within the handful of precincts within Multnomah County combined with the Deschutes County precincts around Bend to effectively create a Progressive Majority DEM-PRIM electorate.

Clackamas County PRIM numbers were underwhelming for Schrader, most likely from predominately working and middle-class "Inner PDX 'Burbs" such as Milwaukie, Gladstone, Oak Grove (Uninc), while meanwhile I suspect wealthier PDX 'burbs voted Schrader, combined with DEMs in rural and Exurban ClackCo.

Marion County effectively has a small number of precincts and RVs compared to the old district, with much fewer DEMs now that Metro Salem has been stripped out of the district.

Linn County in theory, since basically it all went from CD-04 to CD-05 after redistricting should be a more favorable place for a conservative DEM, but reality the vast majority of reg dems in the county live in swing cities such as Albany, and even in Lebanon, not to mention a pretty solid base of REG DEM voters in "East Corvallis" precinct across the river.

DEM-PRIM doesn't tell us what OR-05 GE will look like, but as I posted previously in the '20 OR-House-GE-Thread, DeFazio's 2020 numbers in OR-04 were tracking only 1-2% above Biden numbers in many places in Linn County, so doubtful Schrader would have been able to do much better in 2022 (Quite possibly worst bcs of depressed DEM TO #s).

Regardless TO will likely be very high in 2022 in CD-05 DEM strongholds in 2022, including College educated voters in places like Bend and NW ClackCo, where you also have tons of NPA's, registered through AVR and get a chance to vote easily through VBM.

If anything one might wonder if PUB TO will be depressed w/o Trump on the ticket, with a Q-Anon nut running for OR-SEN.

The "trying to seize our guns" argument only goes so far where there are a lot of gun owners who like to hunt and do the shooting range scene who also vote DEM regularly for FED elections....

[America Needs R'hllor]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).

There are no moderate Republicans, huh

[Politician]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).

There are no moderate Republicans, huh

He could like Mastriano and still disapprove of his election conspiracy theories.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).

There are no moderate Republicans, huh

He could like Mastriano and still disapprove of his election conspiracy theories.

I may not agree with Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir on the whole ethnic cleansing of Arabs thing, but I'm gonna vote for him because he's such a good attorney!

[MT Treasurer]

If anything one might wonder if PUB TO will be depressed w/o Trump on the ticket, with a Q-Anon nut running for OR-SEN.

This again? There is absolutely no reason to expect Republican turnout to be depressed "without Trump on the ticket."

This is also what many Democrats here thought/hoped was going to happen in VA and NJ in 2021 and - surprise - the massive drop-off in R turnout never materialized because GOP voters actually care about more than Trump.

[Canis]

lots of really important primaries today. Im gonna be keeping my eye the closest CA-32 CA-29 CA-34, and CA-37. Los Angeles Mayoral, Controller and Sheriff races will also be interesting along with DA!

[Greedo punched first]

lots of really important primaries today. Im gonna be keeping my eye the closest CA-32 CA-29 CA-34, and CA-37. Los Angeles Mayoral, Controller and Sheriff races will also be interesting along with DA!

You mean city attorney?

[Canis]

lots of really important primaries today. Im gonna be keeping my eye the closest CA-32 CA-29 CA-34, and CA-37. Los Angeles Mayoral, Controller and Sheriff races will also be interesting along with DA!

You mean city attorney?

yeah lmao sorry the gascon recall has been on mind recently

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/07/us/elections/results-california-iowa-montana-new-jersey-new-mexico-south-dakota-primaries.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

For tonight^

DDNN calls will not be made until around 9:30 to 10:00 ET due to my offline obligations.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Any word on who is most likely to take the D nomination in MT-01?

[Greedo punched first]

Will Alex Padilla get a majority and avoid a runoff in the special election for CA-SEN?

[LAB-LIB]

NJ is REALLY unfriendly territory for primary challenges. Gottheimer's challenger was endorsed by Sanders last time and still didn't come close. Donald Payne Jr. has a hard-boiled left challenger this time, while Republican Chris Smith is being challenged by Trumpers, and neither one seems to be in any danger.

Can confirm. It says a lot that even after the crap he pulled, Democrats still couldn't find anyone to take on Gottheimer this cycle.

Like not even a Squad-type who would get shellacked.

The county organization ballot line is a big part of it, but it's also really hard because to get on TV, you need to pay to be on the NYC media market, the Philly media market, or in the case of a statewide race, both.