2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Tekken_Guy]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

[Greedo punched first]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

I was thinking about replacement via winning an election after Feinstein retires and/or primarying her out.

Also, London Breed is up there too,

[Greedo punched first]

Feinstein probably retires or dies in office.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow this is a complete mess.

California always is because of its reliance on mail-ins and late acceptance thereof, plus the dynamics of the top two in and of itself. It's always been "Just call what's obvious on election night, and then check back in a couple weeks for the rest."

[MT Treasurer]

Right now, Olszewski is leading Zinke 49-28 or approx. 2.5K votes in Flathead County. Olszewski can’t afford that margin to shrink given what’s still out in some Zinke-friendly territory like Missoula or even Ravalli (Olszewski really needed to perform a little better in the latter county in particular to feel good about his chances).

Still a humiliation for Zinke even if he scrapes by, of course (he is not and never has been a "stronger candidate" than Matt Rosendale).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wow. Who came up with the 'Bonta will lose' theory? He's outperforming several elected officials.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL at Mike Garcia being at 42.8%

Looks like Levin will stay above 50%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling CA-Controller Slot 2 for Cohen!


Uncalled:

CA-2 Slot 2
CA-4 Slot 2
CA-6 Slot 2
CA-11 Slot 2
CA-12 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-16 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-23 Slot 2
CA-25 Slot 2
CA-30 Slot 2
CA-33 Slot 2
CA-35 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-39 Slot 2
CA-40 Slot 2
CA-43 Slot 2
CA-46 Slot 2
CA-49 Slot 2
CA-AG Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2
CA-Treasurer Slot 2
MT-1 R
NJ-11 R
MS-3 R
TX-15 D

[Morning in Atlas]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

Yeah, London B(R)eed is inevitable.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

LOL at Mike Garcia being at 42.8%

Looks like Levin will stay above 50%

About that..

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1534460606182400001?t=kLxFRdueM5vUqcViasy...

And with every vote dump he's increasing.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

LOL at Mike Garcia being at 42.8%

Looks like Levin will stay above 50%

About that..

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1534460606182400001?t=kLxFRdueM5vUqcViasy...

And with every vote dump he's increasing.

And if Republicans all unite behind him, he'll win 53.4%-46.6%, a 6.8% (nearly 7%) margin. If only David Giglio won too. Maybe 2024.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

LOL at Mike Garcia being at 42.8%

Looks like Levin will stay above 50%

About that..

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1534460606182400001?t=kLxFRdueM5vUqcViasy...
And with every vote dump he's increasing.

And if Republicans all unite behind him, he'll win 53.4%-46.6%, a 6.8% (nearly 7%) margin. If only David Giglio won too. Maybe 2024.

Primary performance isn't a exact science for predicting margins for the general..

But it's definitely positive for Garcia that Repubs are out voting Dems in a Biden +12 district.

[Agafin]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

Wait, why the hell would  Newsom make such a stupid pledge? African-American women are only ~3% of California's population.

[Sol]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

Wait, why the hell would  Newsom make such a stupid pledge? African-American women are only ~3% of California's population.

People in the California Black political establishment were upset that Harris was replaced by Padilla.

[Agafin]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

Wait, why the hell would  Newsom make such a stupid pledge? African-American women are only ~3% of California's population.

People in the California Black political establishment were upset that Harris was replaced by Padilla.

Honestly that is pretty ridiculous. A Hispanic American had never been senator of California despite them making up 40% of the state's population so if you are going for representation, Padilla was certainly a good pick. And anyway, I don't think Newsom pledged to nominate a Latino person, it just happened. That is honestly a better, controversy-free way of doing it, even if you always intended to nominate a [insert minority] person.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Tony Thurmond a weak incumbent or something?

[Nyvin]

Potential (extremely likely) lockout in SD-4 in CA.   Incumbent R was term limited in a Trump+5 seat in northern CA.   Most likely going to be a D vs D race.  Second place Dem ahead by about 3.5k votes.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1534417543837917184

[Greedo punched first]

Robert Garcia is safe in CA-42.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1534521850780336128

[Unelectable Bystander]

Potential (extremely likely) lockout in SD-4 in CA.   Incumbent R was term limited in a Trump+5 seat in northern CA.   Most likely going to be a D vs D race.  Second place Dem ahead by about 3.5k votes.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1534417543837917184

This guy is saying it’ll be an R +15 with two Dems in the runoff lol. That’s a stupid rule and a stupid California GOP

[MT Treasurer]

Unfortunately, Lincoln County still hasn’t reported any votes due to a "technical issue" — we can probably expect about 4K votes to have been cast in the GOP primary there. Zinke winning it or losing it by less than 10 points (which seems likely) would basically seal the deal.

In other news, Republican-endorsed candidates for Supreme Court seat #2 managed to hold Justice Ingrid Gustafson below 50%, which is fairly unusual for a Court race in which the incumbent is running again (see: Just. Rice annihilating his lone opponent by a 76-24 margin for seat #1). Now it’s Gustafson ("non-partisan" D) vs. Brown ("non-partisan" R) in November.

[Greedo punched first]

Todd Spitzer wins another term for Orange County DA without a runoff.

[MT Treasurer]

Primary turnout numbers in MT are one giant yikes for Democrats:

MT-1 (Trump +7.1)* -

GOP - 79,198 - 60%
DEM - 53,614 - 40%

MT-2 (Trump +27.5) -

GOP - 94,994 - 72%
DEM - 36,695 - 28%

Statewide (MT-1 & MT-2 R/D vote totals added up) -

GOP - 174,192 - 66%
DEM - 90,309 - 34%

For comparison and some context, MT-AL (D) 2018 & MT-SEN (R) 2018:

GOP - 152,483 - 58%
DEM - 110,883 - 42%

(a 16-point shift to the GOP since 2018)

*This is without deep-red Lincoln County reporting, which will widen the GOP's lead when it comes in (although I expect it to end up very close to 60/40 when everything is tallied).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-4 Slot 2 - Brock
CA-6 Slot 2 - Hamilton
CA-11 Slot 2 - Dennis
CA-12 Slot 2 - Slauson
CA-25 Slot 2 - Hawkins
CA-35 Slot 2 - Cargile
CA-40 Slot 2 - Kim
CA-43 Slot 2 - Navarro
CA-49 Slot 2 - Maryott
NJ-11 R - DeGroot
MS-3 R - Cassidy, Guest RUNOFF

Uncalled:

CA-2 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-16 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-23 Slot 2
CA-30 Slot 2
CA-33 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-39 Slot 2
CA-46 Slot 2
CA-AG Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2
CA-Treasurer Slot 2
MT-1 R
TX-15 D

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Missoula just dumped some more ballots and I think only Lincoln is left outstanding. Zinke currently leading by just under 1200 votes.

Is it possible Olszewski can take the lead from Lincoln? All the surrounding counties voted for him.