2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Would Cisneros lose to Garcia?

Without a shred of uncertainty, yes.   There's no question that in that district, Garcia would have defeated Cisneros in a head to head matchup, but is very unlikely to defeat Cuellar.   But of course the fake progressive left can't fathom why Democratic house leadership would rather have someone who would likely win in the general and vote with them 96% of the time over someone who would be guaranteed to lose in the general to someone who would vote against them 100% of the time.  

Pictured voting with them 90% of the time:

https://www.nolabels.org/the-unbreakable-nine-pulled-off-what-just-days-ago-seemed-unimaginable/

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD-05-DEM
:
Another decent sized Clackamas County dump since Yesterday posted on their county website a half-hour ago, so not updated on OR SoS or NYT of 5,876 additional votes:

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,818      (48.0%)
Schrader:             + 3,031      (51.6%)             +3.6%       +213 Votes

Needless to say if the NYT's estimates of 15k votes remaining from ClackCo were accurate that now leaves only about 9k remaining in that county.

If Mr. Schrader has not yet started writing his concession speech now might be an opportune time to start.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OR-CD-05-DEM
:
Another decent sized Clackamas County dump since Yesterday posted on their county website a half-hour ago, so not updated on OR SoS or NYT of 5,876 additional votes:

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,818      (48.0%)
Schrader:             + 3,031      (51.6%)             +3.6%       +213 Votes

Needless to say if the NYT's estimates of 15k votes remaining from ClackCo were accurate that now leaves only about 9k remaining in that county.

If Mr. Schrader has not yet started writing his concession speech now might be an opportune time to start.

Looks like NYT has that now. Remaining Estimates:

Deschutes      3,000
Clackamas      9,000
Multnomah      1,000
Linn              <1,000
Marion    <1,000
Jefferson    100

Total Votes so far:

Jamie McLeod-Skinner
37,467   +57.1%57.1%   
Kurt Schrader*
28,101   +42.9%42.9   
Total reported
65,568

Probably still best for Skinner to not declare victory, there's been a ton of very weird things going on with this race and I would not be surprised one bit if Clackamas suddenly published 20,000 votes with all of them being for Schrader.

[OBD]

Think it's reasonably possible that JMS actually wins Clackamas, which would be quite the twist (later votes seem to tilt towards her, and there's still a good bit of the county out).

[Greedo punched first]

Does Schrader actually lose Clackamas?

[OBD]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/27/us/politics/oregon-kurt-schrader-jamie-mcleod-skinner.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=US%20Politics

NYT calls it for JMS.

[Xing]

Does Schrader actually lose Clackamas?

My guess would be no, though I think he could end up with only 51-52% once all the votes are counted. I'm thinking McLeod-Skinner probably wins by about 10% when all is said and done.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OR-5 D for Skinner

[2016]

Rep. Kurt Schrader becomes the 1st sitting Member of the Oregon Congressional Delegation to lose renomination since 1980 folks. That is saying something.

[Roll Roons]

Rep. Kurt Schrader becomes the 1st sitting Member of the Oregon Congressional Delegation to lose renomination since 1980 folks. That is saying something.

Steve King and Scott Tipton were also the first House members from their respective states to lose their primaries in forever.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It really does fascinate me how Cuellar, a near 10-term incumbent, can squeak by in primary wins two cycles in a row and the argument then becomes "wow Cisneros is weak/bad candidate" and Cuellar representing his district well as opposed to Cuellar being a very vulnerable incumbent. Getting 48+% of the vote two primary cycles in a row clearly means being resoundly rejected, right?

It fascinates me a lot too. 200 votes is literally the difference between "Cuellar was a sh*t incumbent" or "Cisneros was a sh*t candidate"

[NOVA Green]

Does Schrader actually lose Clackamas?

My guess would be no, though I think he could end up with only 51-52% once all the votes are counted. I'm thinking McLeod-Skinner probably wins by about 10% when all is said and done.

So although I tend to also suspect Schrader will hold Clackamas I thought it might be interesting to take a bit of a peek at the 2018 DEM PRIM House Precinct results from ClackCo to see WHERE the DEM vote Share in DEM Non-GE PRIMs come from.

In 2018 there were a total of 36,937 DEM ballots cast for US House races in the May Primary in all of Clackamas County.

Oregon City-  2.5k
Gladstone-    1.2k
Milwaukee-    2.5k
Molalla-         0.8k
Portland-       
Canby-         1.2k
West Linn-    3.2k
Lake Oswego- 4.7k
Wilsonville-    1.8k
Sandy-         
Tualatin-        0.3k

Difficult trying to translate precinct results by municipality between '18 / '20 and new precinct lines, and although there are many areas around Happy Valley now absorbed into CD-03, it's still pretty clear that even among DEM voters in the current CD-05 that relatively wealthy PDX burbs such as Lake Oswego and possibly even places such as West Linn might be Schrader Country, while meanwhile likely JMS heavy margins in places such as Milwaukee, Oregon City, and even Uninc areas around Oak Grove.

My general assumption is that Schrader did pretty decent within the "Exurban" and "Rural Dem" areas around places like Sandy & Canby.

Wilsonville is a bit of a question mark in my mind when it comes to DEM PRIM votes.

So obviously missing quite a bit of numbers from the '18 votes in my brief presentation, but truth be told many of those not listed are either in the current OR-CD-03 or heavily RUR or UNINC.

[NOVA Green]

Got distracted and turns out Clackamas County is getting closer to closing as of their update a couple hours ago.

Chance of Clackamas County flipping starts to become increasingly slimmer for anybody placing odd bets.

Very much looking forward to looking at precinct results once all of the dust has settled down...

As I posted previously some earlier precinct maps from the Multnomah County sections of the district, looks like upper-income PDX DEMs in the 'Burbs likely backed Schrader by moderate margins but he got hit hard in more traditional Working and Middle-Class PDX burbs.



+ 4,708 new votes for OR-CD-05-DEM-PRIM

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,273    (48.3%)
Schrader:             + 2,418    (51.4%)             +3.1%       +145 Votes

[politicallefty]

I didn't think Schrader was going to survive based on early returns and it looks like that was right. I didn't know there was that serious of a challenge. That made my night. I haven't forgotten his attempt at trying to prevent Pelosi's return to the Speakership, not to mention the multitude of issues that he attempted or voted to derail. Good riddance. If we lose this seat, the House is long gone, but we'll at least be able to get someone better in a better year. It's really quite amazing how many of her enemies that Pelosi has managed to outlast.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

And you'd rather have someone who regularly fights the Democratic Party than someone who doesn't. Anti-BBB, anti-PRO Act, anti-marijuana reform, anti-Democrat. This clown is closer to Susan Collins than Joe Manchin!

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

[jdk]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

And you'd rather have someone who regularly fights the Democratic Party than someone who doesn't. Anti-BBB, anti-PRO Act, anti-marijuana reform, anti-Democrat. This clown is closer to Susan Collins than Joe Manchin!

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

So because Cuellar isn't enough of a Democrat, you support a full on Republican like Cassy Garcia, like she won't fight the Democratic party or support any of things you said? make that make sense.

BTW, Cuellar voted for BBB, and to say he is closer to Collins than Manchin is just another stupid statement considering that Manchin votes against the party about twice as often as Cuellar (who, while we're on the same subject, votes with the GOP less often than anybody on the Squad)

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

And you'd rather have someone who regularly fights the Democratic Party than someone who doesn't. Anti-BBB, anti-PRO Act, anti-marijuana reform, anti-Democrat. This clown is closer to Susan Collins than Joe Manchin!

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

So because Cuellar isn't enough of a Democrat, you support a full on Republican like Cassy Garcia, like she won't fight the Democratic party or support any of things you said? make that make sense.

BTW, Cuellar voted for BBB, and to say he is closer to Collins than Manchin is just another stupid statement considering that Manchin votes against the party about twice as often as Cuellar (who, while we're on the same subject, votes with the GOP less often than anybody on the Squad)

More indifference than support. Despite your DAE LE RURAL TX circlejerk, there's a big chunk of suburban Texas that will probably flip this back in 2024. I'd rather have a real Democrat in 2024 or 2026 than a fake one in 2022.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

And you'd rather have someone who regularly fights the Democratic Party than someone who doesn't. Anti-BBB, anti-PRO Act, anti-marijuana reform, anti-Democrat. This clown is closer to Susan Collins than Joe Manchin!

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

So because Cuellar isn't enough of a Democrat, you support a full on Republican like Cassy Garcia, like she won't fight the Democratic party or support any of things you said? make that make sense.

BTW, Cuellar voted for BBB, and to say he is closer to Collins than Manchin is just another stupid statement considering that Manchin votes against the party about twice as often as Cuellar (who, while we're on the same subject, votes with the GOP less often than anybody on the Squad)

After he was sure that his gambit to kill it was complete.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

And you'd rather have someone who regularly fights the Democratic Party than someone who doesn't. Anti-BBB, anti-PRO Act, anti-marijuana reform, anti-Democrat. This clown is closer to Susan Collins than Joe Manchin!

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

So because Cuellar isn't enough of a Democrat, you support a full on Republican like Cassy Garcia, like she won't fight the Democratic party or support any of things you said? make that make sense.

BTW, Cuellar voted for BBB, and to say he is closer to Collins than Manchin is just another stupid statement considering that Manchin votes against the party about twice as often as Cuellar (who, while we're on the same subject, votes with the GOP less often than anybody on the Squad)

After he was sure that his gambit to kill it was complete.

The comparison is just bad overall because Manchin is an actually decisive vote in the Senate whereas the House doesn't really matter cause if it's not passing the House it's not passing the Senate and Dems have a few seat majority in the House anyways.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling GA LT GOV R for Jones!

Uncalled:
TX-15 D
PA-SEN R

[smoltchanov]

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

Only far left radicals and those you Personaly recognize as "Democrats" deserve to be called this??? Interesting approach....

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

Only far left radicals and those you Personaly recognize as "Democrats" deserve to be called this??? Interesting approach....

Well, yes. But if I were to romanticize about it, at least half the party wouldn't be "real Democrats". I'm talking about the actual priorities of the Democrats' agenda.

Build Back Better? He helped water it down.

Codify Roe? Against that.

Marijuana decrim? Nope.

PRO Act? Nah.

He's not as egregious as Schrader, but this guy sucks. The anti-leftists argue like he's Jared Golden! On an objective level, looking at his record, Cuellar is not a Democrat because he nearly uniquely does not support Democratic policies.

[smoltchanov]

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

Only far left radicals and those you Personaly recognize as "Democrats" deserve to be called this??? Interesting approach....

Well, yes. But if I were to romanticize about it, at least half the party wouldn't be "real Democrats". I'm talking about the actual priorities of the Democrats' agenda.

Build Back Better? He helped water it down.

Codify Roe? Against that.

Marijuana decrim? Nope.

PRO Act? Nah.

He's not as egregious as Schrader, but this guy sucks. The anti-leftists argue like he's Jared Golden! On an objective level, looking at his record, Cuellar is not a Democrat because he nearly uniquely does not support Democratic policies.

He doesn't support LIBERAL Democratic policies. He is a relatively conservative (only relatively - no comparison with really conservative Democrats of the past) Democrat. You equate "being Democrat" with "being very liberal" or even "radical". Probably - millions of Democrats will beg to differ...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

Only far left radicals and those you Personaly recognize as "Democrats" deserve to be called this??? Interesting approach....

Well, yes. But if I were to romanticize about it, at least half the party wouldn't be "real Democrats". I'm talking about the actual priorities of the Democrats' agenda.

Build Back Better? He helped water it down.

Codify Roe? Against that.

Marijuana decrim? Nope.

PRO Act? Nah.

He's not as egregious as Schrader, but this guy sucks. The anti-leftists argue like he's Jared Golden! On an objective level, looking at his record, Cuellar is not a Democrat because he nearly uniquely does not support Democratic policies.

He doesn't support LIBERAL Democratic policies. He is a relatively conservative (only relatively - no comparison with really conservative Democrats of the past) Democrat. You equate "being Democrat" with "being very liberal" or even "radical". Probably - millions of Democrats will beg to differ...

Silence, Republican!

[2016]

CNN finally projects McLeod-Skinner in OR-5!

That Donkey Network still claims that they are the "Most Trusted News Leader".

I have my doubts though.

When it comes US Politics they sound like an leftwing Propaganda Network it the mould of MSDNC!