2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Minnesota Mike]

Where are the remaining votes from TX-28 coming from?

What remaining votes? As far as I know all the votes are in. Barring a tabulation error it's probably over.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Where are the remaining votes from TX-28 coming from?

Provisionals I presume.

Open question as to the counties.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's nothing notable outstanding is my perception. TX Law does allow Cisneros to demand a recount though.

[Minnesota Mike]

Where are the remaining votes from TX-28 coming from?

Provisionals I presume.

Open question as to the counties.

I think Provisionals are a very small number. In Bexar county for example there are only 11 total and TX-28 is a small part of Bexar.

https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/33883/May-24-2022-Primary-Runoff---Election-Reconciliation---Official-Totals---Democrat?bidId=

[Canis]

Where are the remaining votes from TX-28 coming from?

Provisionals I presume.

Open question as to the counties.

Yeah just Provisionals left. Cisnero's won those in 2020 and 4 weeks ago. Cuellar when he was first elected to the house in 2004 won his primary by a recount where he was down originally by a near-identical margin (148) than Cisnero's is now (177 Which will likely go down a bit once provisional are in).  This will definitely go to a recount.

Cuellar was a massive overperformed while Schrader was just annoying

Also Schrader's primary opponent is much more of a normie Dem, and even though she is definitely to the left of the typical voter in the district, she actually seems to be more in touch with that district and not running a race in rural Texas while campaigning as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco like Cisneros

Not really. McLeod-Skinner is just a bog standard liberal. She’s no more to the left than any other mainstream Democrat, which seems like right at the median for a D+3ish district.

Unless we are gonna say literally every Republican is to the right of their district because they don’t substantially break with their party, we really need to drop this framing.

By this definition everyone to the left of Joe Manchin is a left wing crazy. It’s tiring.

Yeah if you look at Skinner's issues page on her website she's running on a near identical platform as Biden ran on in 2020 (Free community college, Student Debt Relief etc) Only issue shes on the left of him on is she doesn't accept corporate pac money. She's definitely a major improvement to Schrader but shes not a progressive shes just a standard Dem.

[The Mikado]

So many crimes, so little time. Is the article below out of date?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/henry-cuellar-texas-representative-not-fbi-investigation-target/

You're the fancy law man, you should know better than any of the rest of us that "not target of the investigation" does not necessarily = "will not be indicted," especially if the FBI did a surprise raid of your house.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

[jdk]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

[Zaybay]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

She very much did not run in rural TX. But neither did Cuellar. The district is barely rural and is really just two urban centers (San Antonio and Laredo) strung together by barely populated territory. San Antonio went to Cisneros, whereas Laredo went to Cuellar. Laredo had slightly greater sway than San Antonio, and so Cuellar won.

If we want to talk rural TX, the 4th most depopulated county in TX is located in this seat; McMullen. Cisneros won that county's vote.

You can certainly make the argument that Cisneros did not appeal to Rio Grande Hispanics, though the literal reverse argument, that Cuellar did not appeal at all to San Antonio Hispanics, could also be made. But arguing about who appealed to rural Dems is a fool's errand in a seat where almost none of the voting population lives in a rural area.

[Torie]

So many crimes, so little time. Is the article below out of date?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/henry-cuellar-texas-representative-not-fbi-investigation-target/

You're the fancy law man, you should know better than any of the rest of us that "not target of the investigation" does not necessarily = "will not be indicted," especially if the FBI did a surprise raid of your house.

I didn't actually. I was not of the world of high level "prosecutorial" investigations. If the "not under investigation" statement does not have much informational value as to  odds of ending up being prosecuted, then that is interesting, particularly if done intending to deceive, or relaxed about the issue of drawing false inferences for those not savvy to the code.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I mean, if not technically the target of n investigation, when you home gets raided in an investigation it’s safe to say you were involved at some level.

[Torie]

I mean, if not technically the target of n investigation, when you home gets raided in an investigation it’s safe to say you were involved at some level.

Which came first, the raid, or the alleged time that the FBI told the alleged target that he was not a "subject of investigation?" If the the raid was subsequent to the "no target" comment, then yes, something called the tectonic plates to move.

[Badger]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

That might make an ounce of sense if in fact Sanders didn't win nearly all of the RGV counties 2 years ago. But why let facts and statistics get in the way of a good screed?

[UncleSam]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

That might make an ounce of sense if in fact Sanders didn't win nearly all of the RGV counties 2 years ago. But why let facts and statistics get in the way of a good screed?

Doesn’t change the fact Cisneros was never going to be a congresswoman regardless of the outcome of this primary. Only difference is we get Cuellar instead of an R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also so much for "Moderate Suburban Cobb" as Greene still won a majority of the priamry vote there (though noticeable less so than other counties in her district).

[NOVA Green]

Held off posting last night out of deference to primary night, but for anyone interested since in CD-05-DEM PRIM results, since the race has not been called yet by any of the reputable news outlets (Wasserman and Atlas pundits don't count).   

Clackamas County has had a few dumps and is now up to 13,048 TOT VOTES in that election (+6,250):

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,952     (47.2%)
Schrader:             + 3,263     (52.2%)             +5.0%       +311 Votes

*** NOTE- NYT hasn't yet updated to reflect and looks to be about 5k behind official figures. Assuming their estimates of 21k remaining DEM ballots from ClackCo were accurate that number would then shrink to only ~ 16k.  ***

Deschutes County added another 1,448 DEM Votes about 1 1/2 hrs ago:

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 932     (64.4%)            +29.5%       +427 Votes
Schrader:             + 505     (34.9%) 

*** NYT is updated and shows and estimated 3k remaining, but again I don't totally trust these numbers. Interestingly enough Mcleod-Skinner's margin went down. ***

Jefferson County     makes it first appearance with a grand total of (1) total DEM vote for Mcleod-Skinner.

** NYT is estimating (100) total DEM PRIM voters remaining. We shall see... haven't checked how many REG DEMs are in the one precinct in CD-05 ***

Linn County added a few more votes since my last update (+786)

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 396     (50.4%)            +2.4%       +19 Votes
Schrader:             + 377     (48.0%) 

*** NYT is updated. They estimate <1,000 votes remaining. Even if Schrader were to get a decent closing here (Which isn't really how things have been trending) can't imagine that he bags more than a couple hundred extra votes. ***

Marion County had a small update since my last posting  (+ 213 Votes).

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 78     (36.6%)           
Schrader:             +132     (62.0%)       +25.4%       +54 Votes

*** NYT is updated. Pretty decent Schrader % here! NYT is estimating <1k ballots, so might be a couple hundred more for Schrader out there best case scenario for his campaign ***

Multnomah County: has a trickle more in (+ 65 Total Votes)

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 38   (58.5%)       +18,5%       +8 Votes         
Schrader:             + 26    (40.0%)       

*** NYT is updated and shows an estimated 1k votes remaining. Call me slightly skeptical. ***

Overall one of the frustrating things about this election not just the giant SNAFU in ClackCo, but is also that we don't have a very good handle on estimated votes remaining. Unless the NYT is actually calling up the various County Election Offices and getting updates, I suspect many of their estimated votes remaining are just math algorithms based upon some type of statistical modelling rather than actual hard data.

 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

That might make an ounce of sense if in fact Sanders didn't win nearly all of the RGV counties 2 years ago. But why let facts and statistics get in the way of a good screed?

Doesn’t change the fact Cisneros was never going to be a congresswoman regardless of the outcome of this primary. Only difference is we get Cuellar instead of an R.

Firstly, I think the argument that Bernie won many of the RGV counties is quite weak. In the Dem primary, most of these counties had extremely low turnout, Bernie only got about 30% of the vote due to a fractured primary, he just won the counties cause Biden did really bad. Also winning a county ina  primary isn't indicative of Pres performance, hell Bernie won Denton County and Williamson County even though Biden was a better fit in the GE for both.

It's also possible a lot of dissaffected Dems voted for Bernie in the primary as a protest vote, similar to what we've seen in WV Dem primaries.

As a Dem who's not a fan of Cueller, I was personally rooting for him in this one. Cisneros had the opportunity to modify her campaign message to be a better fit for the district; running to the left of Cueller doesn't mean being a squad member in a Biden + 7 district. Conservative Dems in South Texas resounded rejected her for this reason. She had the chance to become stronger and she didn't. Furthermore, her toxicity for this part of the state would make her significantlly electorally worse than Cueller in the GE; even if Cueller does slightly worse in parts Bexar than she would've done, he wouldn't lose as much support as she would've lost in RGV. Cueller is prolly gonna retire or lose relatively soon anyways, but I would support a Dem primary from a more progressive candidate who can connect with the whole district.

The GOP was smart to combine 2 very distinct Hispanic communities into a single district even if it made the district slightly bluer. They knew it'd lead to fractioning of Dems

[JM1295]

It really does fascinate me how Cuellar, a near 10-term incumbent, can squeak by in primary wins two cycles in a row and the argument then becomes "wow Cisneros is weak/bad candidate" and Cuellar representing his district well as opposed to Cuellar being a very vulnerable incumbent. Getting 48+% of the vote two primary cycles in a row clearly means being resoundly rejected, right?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

[Joseph Cao]

I wonder if Bee Nguyen can be considered a slight favorite over Raffensperger for SoS this fall since there's a good chance a lot of Republican primary voters might skip his part of the ballot because they're disenfranchised by him... kind of in a similar fashion to the 2021 Georgia runoffs.

These voters who feel that way – didn't they just renominate him to do the same job in which he disenfranchised their feelings? It took pretty substantial R dropoff to get the Georgia runoffs result, Warnock's encore performance this time will be a much better indicator of how the statewide races go.

He barely made it over the threshold to avoid a runoff, and almost all of the votes the other candidates got were cast in the intention of voting AGAINST Raff as a protest. It's very likely that a significant number of those voters aren't going to be there for him in Novermber. Also, keep in mind that a lot of the votes that he got were from Democrats who probably have no intention of supporting him in the general election.

The Kemp and Walker and LG-nominee and Carr voters who show up in November are not going to skip Raffensperger's part of the ballot en masse unless there is a concerted effort by prominent Republicans to encourage it. Nobody is interested in spearheading that. Trump sounded pretty burned by the results and seems to prefer quietly letting people forget about his fiasco at this point.

And there's no evidence of a substantial part of Raff's vote being Democrats crossing over. The Democratic SoS primary raw vote totals are tracking very close to those for Warnock's primary while both races are lagging the Abrams vote totals slightly, on the order of a few thousand votes in the first case and a larger gap in the second.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I wonder if Bee Nguyen can be considered a slight favorite over Raffensperger for SoS this fall since there's a good chance a lot of Republican primary voters might skip his part of the ballot because they're disenfranchised by him... kind of in a similar fashion to the 2021 Georgia runoffs.

These voters who feel that way – didn't they just renominate him to do the same job in which he disenfranchised their feelings? It took pretty substantial R dropoff to get the Georgia runoffs result, Warnock's encore performance this time will be a much better indicator of how the statewide races go.

He barely made it over the threshold to avoid a runoff, and almost all of the votes the other candidates got were cast in the intention of voting AGAINST Raff as a protest. It's very likely that a significant number of those voters aren't going to be there for him in Novermber. Also, keep in mind that a lot of the votes that he got were from Democrats who probably have no intention of supporting him in the general election.

The Kemp and Walker and LG-nominee and Carr voters who show up in November are not going to skip Raffensperger's part of the ballot en masse unless there is a concerted effort by prominent Republicans to encourage it. Nobody is interested in spearheading that. Trump sounded pretty burned by the results and seems to prefer quietly letting people forget about his fiasco at this point.

And there's no evidence of a substantial part of Raff's vote being Democrats crossing over. The Democratic SoS primary raw vote totals are tracking very close to those for Warnock's primary while both races are lagging the Abrams vote totals slightly, on the order of a few thousand votes in the first case and a larger gap in the second.

With how primary voting works in America, what you pointed out doesn't necessarily prove what you are trying to prove. Voters have to pick either a democratic primary ballot or a republican primary ballot, and then vote for the same party's primary for each race. It's simply impossible to say vote for Abrams and then cross over to vote for Raffensperger at the primary level because you don't have access to both parties ballots. If you cross over for one thing, you're crossing over for everything.

Yes, in the general you can be an Abrams-Warnock-Raffensperger voter, and I expect to see some. But the system doesn't allow one to do that on the primary ballot.

[Greedo punched first]

Henry Cuellar is the man!

[jdk]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

[Greedo punched first]

Would Cisneros lose to Garcia?

[jdk]

Would Cisneros lose to Garcia?

Without a shred of uncertainty, yes.   There's no question that in that district, Garcia would have defeated Cisneros in a head to head matchup, but is very unlikely to defeat Cuellar.   But of course the fake progressive left can't fathom why Democratic house leadership would rather have someone who would likely win in the general and vote with them 96% of the time over someone who would be guaranteed to lose in the general to someone who would vote against them 100% of the time.