2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Do we know when a run-off officially gets called.

Also too, can someone remind the RGV voters that Cuellar is about to get arrested.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So I’m looking at the AP numbers, are these just Allegheny so far?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

And Kenyatta finally got a bump in the last dump, up to 12%. Fetterman still over 50 and Lamb right at 33

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Are we just gonna ignore that North Carolina has a "Transylvania County"?

(Real cutting-edge primary election night commentary from PQG, I know.)

Seriously though, NC-11 will be super interesting to watch. 

Their’s also a Transylvania University in Kentucky

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don’t know if I missed it, but NYT has officially called for Fetterman, Lamb has just barely fallen below 30

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Honestly, it doesn't look like a Barnette win is happening tonight. She's not doing strong enough with EDay votes.

Really hope you're wrong as a Barnette candidacy is the only way Fetterman can win.

Oz is under water with Republicans. Barnette will also likely go on the offensive against him as the GOP nominee. He is a phony. I am not as worried about Oz’s candidacy as others are.

Same here.

Imagine what his favorability rating with independents is if he can't even hold his head above water with his own party. I'm eager to see a poll.

How many times have we seen a primary win by a guy underwater with his party?

It’s really unusual, even in brutal primaries typically all the prominent candidates have very high same party favs.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526741238803836928

The prudes win again. Sad to see.

Edwards will keep his mouth shut about the ocaineyay orgiesay.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Does anyone know why there are so many more votes out in OR-5, where AP has 50% reporting than everywhere else where they have 80ish% reporting?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I should also note that Schrader was already an under-performer to begin with even before he was doing stuff like calling Trump’s second impeachment “a lynching” and voting against BBB.

This is good to note. He underperforms Statewide and National Dems.
People see Blue Dog and assume electoral titan when there is no evidence that a generic Dem wouldn’t do better in this case.

Also, did some back of the table math, I’m seeing estimates of 55% in and McLeod-Skinner up by about 9,000 votes. If those numbers are accurate Schader would need to win 64% of outstanding votes to win here. It’s not impossible but doesn’t look great for him.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

This is the most competitive district in Oregon, if Republicans were going to make any gains in the state it'd be here.

The problem is both Bend and the Portland Suburbs in the district are zooming left really fast.

OR-5 seems like a 2022 R Flip, potentially D flip in 2024 or 2026 if she’s lucky.

If it flips it’s strictly down to national environment and would have happened to Schrader as well and a likely two year rental. In a neutral year, the new district is likely D.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don’t know where the idea that conservative Democrats must be electoral titans comes from anyway.
Schrader has historically done either marginally better or marginally worse than national and statewide Dems in his district. There is no evidence that being a giant headache for his colleagues has actually netted him any votes.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don’t know where the idea that conservative Democrats must be electoral titans comes from anyway.
Schrader has historically done either marginally better or marginally worse than national and statewide Dems in his district. There is no evidence that being a giant headache for his colleagues has actually netted him any votes.

I'm not disagreeing with you but I'm just saying what I think is going to happen

I wasn’t disagreeing with you either, I’m saying I’m frustrated with this notion that being more conservative, or even just being performatively obstructionist, will increase electability that seems stuck in allot of the D party movers heads.

Wasserman seems to think McLeod-Skinner is the favorite at this point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526928469292195841

Hate to be that guy but I'm a little less confident in McLeod-Skinner's chances. Clackamas is Schrader's home base (and the largest county in the district to boot) and is barely in right now - if that goes badly for JMS Schrader is very much still in the game.

Not that what's in isn't encouraging, though - hopefully McLeod-Skinner can close the gap in Clackamas and secure the W.

I the NYT estimates of votes remaining (before they paywalled me) are accurate, he needs to net a hair over 9,000 votes of a remaining 31,000. That’s not impossible, but he would need to absolutely dominate Clackamas to do it.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Wasserman seems to think McLeod-Skinner is the favorite at this point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526928469292195841

I should also note that Schrader was already an under-performer to begin with even before he was doing stuff like calling Trump’s second impeachment “a lynching” and voting against BBB.

This is good to note. He underperforms Statewide and National Dems.
People see Blue Dog and assume electoral titan when there is no evidence that a generic Dem wouldn’t do better in this case.

Also, did some back of the table math, I’m seeing estimates of 55% in and McLeod-Skinner up by about 9,000 votes. If those numbers are accurate Schader would need to win 64% of outstanding votes to win here. It’s not impossible but doesn’t look great for him.

Nailed it

Where do I sign up for my job with Cook?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Are we entirely sure that McCormick barely winning on mail-in ballots and Oz and, more importantly, Trump making a big fuss about the 'stolen' election isn't the best possible scenario for Fetterman?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

OR-Cd-05:

Marion County added another small batch of votes earlier today and percentages remained effectively unchanged.

Schrader:           +1,039   (56.0)
Mcleod-Skinner:  +  815    (44.0)

TOTAL:  1,854

Clackamas County also finally released their first reports today (a Couple small batchs) early today.

Both of these had Schrader at 57% versus Mcleod-Skinner's 43%.

Still too early to say what's going on there since it is a relatively small sample and we don't really know where the votes are coming from.

Hopefully Clackamas County will speed up processing, despite the initial glitches now that the Secretary of State is turning up the heat on the local election officials.

So Clackamas only dropped 1,200 votes so I’m not sure percentages mean anything, but NYT is now showing McLeod-Skinner up 9,500 with about 38,000 left.
57% won’t do it for Schrader

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Clackamas dropped another 1,000 while I was typing.
Still 57-43

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Considering Clackamas has reported around 5800 votes in OR-5 for the GOP primary and only about 2600 for the Dem primary I have to assume most of the reported areas are more in the southeast than the northwest.   

I don’t know Oregon, but based on the pattern seen in the rest of the district, with JMS crushing Kurt in Portland and Bend and Kurt with small but comfortable leads in the smaller counties, that has to be good news right?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

Moderate Democrats: Actively worked to derail their party’s signature legislative effort on behalf of Republican donors.
Moderate Republicans: Doesn’t explicitly say they will end democracy, wears pants in public

There’s a bit of a difference here.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

They didn't even field a challenge against Gottheimer.

Realistically the only ones we can still take out are Cuellar and Bordeaux. Costa has a primary challenger but he seems more interested in #Resistance grifting and tweeting than running a campaign. Maybe Case can get a better challenger.

The local Hawaii Democrats and media seem to be all in to protect Case.
Which makes no damn sense. The only way Democrats lose his district would be a catastrophic scandal and even if you have no ideological priorities Ed Case makes running your caucus harder just by general jackassery.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Is there any reason why Oregon is taking so long to count? Feel like there haven’t been any ballots counted for OR-5 in 2 days

Apparently Clackamas has to copy all the votes onto new ballots manually.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Is there some kind of strong anti-establishment presence in Oregon?

Schrader just spend the past term very visibly fighting a Democratic administration on major policy goals and capped it off by publicly killing the prescription drug reform that has been a party campaign plank since 2006.

It doesn't take a strong anti-establishment streak to explain him losing a Democratic primary.


The open seat, OR-6, was won by a four term state senator and former Harry Reid staffer.

Everything else was incumbents.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Honestly, between this, the general incompetence of the county clerk out there, and their pattern so far of moving faster with the GOP primary votes, I’m quite concerned that a) Clackamas won’t be done counting by the deadline and b) the uncounted ballots will overwhelmingly be from liberal precincts where McLeod-Skinner should over perform the county as a whole

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

WFIW, NYT now showing 45% of Clackamas reported. 55-45 Schrader, not close to where he need to be.

EDIT: And that has to be a typo, because no way in hell are there only 14,000 Clackamas ballots

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1529119246516617216

Sorry Dave Wasserman, you are late. I was first to declare so my vote is going to count first, lol

Woohoo more gays in congress

Woohoo less Kurt Schraders in congress

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1529269375504728064

And another one down