2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling:

Ag. Commissioner
Rep.   
Miller* 59%
White 31%
52%   

8 Rep.   
Luttrell 54%
Collins 22%
82%

[Minnesota Mike]

Cuellar is down by 4 with 44.5% in. This will likely be close, but I expect that he loses to Jessica Cisneros

Nothing in yet from Starr or Zapata, Cuellar should do very well there. Probably goes to a runoff, if not is a Cuellar win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just cashed out my Cisneros shares on PredictIt and flipped to Cueller. It sucks but Cueller should win big in those two border counties that are still out and NY Times says there's only about 3000 votes left in Bexar County. If that follows the current patterns it'll give her about a ~1300 vote lead on top of her ~1500 lead. But NYT estimates 9000 votes in those two counties, and 5000 still in Webb, to lose that by just about 2800 votes she'd have to hold Cueller to under 60%.

Bleh. But who knows, maybe she'll get another chance in the 2023 special election after Cueller heads to federal prison.

[Roll Roons]

Based on what I can see from DDHQ, it actually seems like Taylor will probably avoid a runoff by the skin of his teeth. They have 86% reporting.

86% reporting with Van Taylor at 51% and his % going down every time its updated... idk will be close either way

Taylor is holding steady with 96% now in. I think he's got this, but he got a real scare and he's very lucky that the affair rumors didn't come out earlier.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DDHQ is showing much more reporting than other sites. Is DDHQ just that much ahead of everyone or do they estimate less outstanding votes than others?

EDIT: Was there an error with DDHQ? A lot of races just changed to show less reporting. E.g. TX-08 was at >99% reporting but now it's at 90% reporting.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDHQ is showing much more reporting than other sites. Is DDHQ just that much ahead of everyone or do they estimate less outstanding votes than others?

I think it's a bit of both.

Small part of it is NYT does not declare 100% in anymore, >95% is the highest they go.

[Roll Roons]

It also looks like incumbent Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian will get held to a runoff, probably with Sarah Stogner, who (in)famously went topless in an ad.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cuellar closing the gap, less than 1k separates him now. I don't think there's enough of Bexar County out to save Cisneros. However if she holds him to a runoff she's probably favored.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proceeds to Runoff:

21 Dem.

Claudia Zapata
11,733   45.4%
Ricardo Villarreal
7,447   28.8%
Coy Branscum
2,302   8.9%
66%

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

TX-03 % of reporting in DDHQ was 97%, then down to 90%, and now 87%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-03 % of reporting in DDHQ was 97%, then down to 90%, and now 87%.

I use NYT for a reason.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proceeds to Runoff:

28 R
Cassy Garcia
6,674    30.3%   
Sandra Whitten
3,350   15.2%
Steven Fowler
2,651   12.0%
92%

[Sestak]

Don’t think Taylor is out of the woods yet.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Don’t think Taylor is out of the woods yet.

I think he's favored right now, but for him to lose means he needs to lose the remaining ballots by about a 5-4 ratio. Possible, but I'm not exactly sure where these ballots are coming from so I don't know which way they're likely to lean.
Either way imo Van Taylor doing so poorly is a really bad sign for other incumbents who don't subscribe to Trump's election fraud stuff.

[Roll Roons]

Don’t think Taylor is out of the woods yet.

Yeah, it's coming down to the wire. Pure tossup as to whether or not he avoids a runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling:

23 Dem.
Lira 58%
Golden 42%
64%

What I have not called:

Att. Gen. D & R
Lt. Gov. D
Comptroller D
Land Commissioner D & R
Railroad Commissioner R
---Districts:
3 R
5 D
7 R
14 D
15 D
24 D
28 D
29 R
30 D
32 R
35 R
37 R
38 R

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's worth noting that if Van Taylor gets dragged into a runoff, he's guaranteed to lose.
He got less than 50% of the vote now with only his vote to certify and create a Jan 6 commission being points against him (which won't be going away), but if he's in a runoff he'll have to deal with Trump likely endorsing his challenger and the scandal that broke yesterday about his affair with a literal ISIS bride.

[GALeftist]

Pretty sure TX-28 will be a Cuellar-Cisneros runoff at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's worth noting that if Van Taylor gets dragged into a runoff, he's guaranteed to lose.
He got less than 50% of the vote now with only his vote to certify and create a Jan 6 commission being points against him (which won't be going away), but if he's in a runoff he'll have to deal with Trump likely endorsing his challenger and the scandal that broke yesterday about his affair with a literal ISIS bride.

He’ll be very close to 50 even if he gets a runoff and needs just a few votes of the other candidates to make it through.

[Roll Roons]

What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

VAN TAYLOR AT 49.3% WITH 100% REPORTING ACCORDING TO NYT

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

I honestly don't know why. The most outspokenly anti-Trump/moderate Republican representative in Texas is Crenshaw and his challenger didn't even break 20%.

[Xing]

TX-28 is definitely going to a run-off. Cuellar will probably narrowly eke it out because of course he will.

[Ferguson97]

What's the PVI of the new TX-28? Does either nominee risk losing the general?

[lfromnj]

What's the PVI of the new TX-28? Does either nominee risk losing the general?

Clinton +19, biden +7, Hegar +6. Cuellar is definetely at risk if the FBI Scandal expands, Cisneros might be a bit green and also risk the district.