2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Tekken_Guy]

It's worth noting that if Van Taylor gets dragged into a runoff, he's guaranteed to lose.
He got less than 50% of the vote now with only his vote to certify and create a Jan 6 commission being points against him (which won't be going away), but if he's in a runoff he'll have to deal with Trump likely endorsing his challenger and the scandal that broke yesterday about his affair with a literal ISIS bride.

He’ll be very close to 50 even if he gets a runoff and needs just a few votes of the other candidates to make it through.

[Tekken_Guy]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

If that’s the case, De La Cruz is pretty much a lock to win in November and Garcia may win even if Cuellar is the D nominee and is clearly favored if it’s Cisneros. I wouldn’t even count out Flores upsetting Gonzalez.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does Oz have it in the bag at this point, or can McCormick come back?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

Republicans definitely could win the district but it’s hard to see how Democrats are not still favored to hold it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Just occurred to me that Cawthorn being ousted means AOC will be the youngest House member again, correct?

There are a couple possible candidates who are younger - Bo Hines in NC-13, Matthew Foldi in MD-06 and Karoline Leavitt in NH-01.

I don’t know how old Cassy Garcia is, but she might be younger too.

Madison Gesiotto is also younger. As is Colin Schmitt in NY. So is Alek Skarlatos, though he’s a long shot.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Malia Cohen wins the battle for CA controller (which looks very likely), might we be looking at Feinstein's successor?

Yes.

I think that’s gonna be Katie Porter TBH.

Newsom said an African-American woman.

I was thinking about replacement via winning an election after Feinstein retires and/or primarying her out.

Also, London Breed is up there too,

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like Nevada’s electoral votes will be Safe R in 2024.
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1536948765914972161?s=21

Marchand could still lose in November, even if Lombardo and Laxalt win.

https://twitter.com/thenvindy/status/1536955889906618368?s=21&t=8PCFJH79h5Z2...

Lovely. Her and Merchant are going to be representing my state for at least 4 years most likely…

Nah, I think there’s a decent chance they run behind the rest of the ticket.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only thing I can really say about last night's primaries is that I am very disappointed that Eva Braun won the primary in IL-15. Watch Paladino win in New York now. We're so polarized in this country that we can't even agree that praising Hitler in any way=unacceptable anymore.

Miller won because Davis was seen as very moderate. If she was up against a more solid conservative she might have lost. Paladino‘a main opponent is chairman Nick Langworthy who hasn’t alienated the MAGA crowd the way Davis has.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only thing I can really say about last night's primaries is that I am very disappointed that Eva Braun won the primary in IL-15. Watch Paladino win in New York now. We're so polarized in this country that we can't even agree that praising Hitler in any way=unacceptable anymore.

Miller won because Davis was seen as very moderate. If she was up against a more solid conservative she might have lost. Paladino‘a main opponent is chairman Nick Langworthy who hasn’t alienated the MAGA crowd the way Davis has.

Yes, however Paladino is an institution in WNY unlike Miller. I mean look at the map for NY-GOV in 2010, Paladino got destroyed statewide but got Assad-like margins in WNY/Buffalo area.
And he's got a Trump-like ability where he has so many controversies people sort of ignore them.

Paladino was seen as a fairly normal Republican in 2010. It wasn’t until long after that race he went off the deep end.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only thing I can really say about last night's primaries is that I am very disappointed that Eva Braun won the primary in IL-15. Watch Paladino win in New York now. We're so polarized in this country that we can't even agree that praising Hitler in any way=unacceptable anymore.

Miller won because Davis was seen as very moderate. If she was up against a more solid conservative she might have lost. Paladino‘a main opponent is chairman Nick Langworthy who hasn’t alienated the MAGA crowd the way Davis has.

Yes, however Paladino is an institution in WNY unlike Miller. I mean look at the map for NY-GOV in 2010, Paladino got destroyed statewide but got Assad-like margins in WNY/Buffalo area.
And he's got a Trump-like ability where he has so many controversies people sort of ignore them.

Paladino was seen as a fairly normal Republican in 2010. It wasn’t until long after that race he went off the deep end.

LOL Paladino was NOT a "fairly normal Republican" in 2010. His race had constant scandals and controversies.

He literally said he wanted Obama to die of mad cow disease late in 2016!!!

That doesn't disprove my point. He said just as crazy insane things during his 2010 run. Look it up if you don't believe me. He's always been like this and no one seemed to care.

They got way less publicity at the time. The mad cow disease stuff made national headlines. I think suburban Buffalo Republicans may have been turned off by him since. Also Langworthy will have a huge advantage in the southern tier.

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like Meijer has to work at the grocery store next year.

And where will Gibbs work? Only - don't tell me, that in US House of Representatives...

What was Gibbs doing before this?

He worked in the Trump administration and he was a software engineer at some point.

Though I doubt he'll be a congressman.

He's kind of a goofy nerd but it's not like this is Valadao losing. He still has a very good shot.

Sorry, I just don’t see it. Biden+8 is a steep hill to climb.

[Tekken_Guy]

Larkin beating Dunn basically guarantees Schrier will win re-election.

What’s wrong with Larkin?

[Tekken_Guy]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

If anyone's going to bring down Trump, it's going to be an heir to his movement like Ron DeSantis, not a anti-Trumper like Cheney.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

The new NY-22 also features a lot of Obama-Trump/Trumpish Republican voters in the Utica area (it likely has significantly more of such primary voters than MI-03), which Katko also never represented in Congress/doesn't have an incumbency advantage. I don't think the odds would be on his side.

Would Trump have gotten Tenney to run there or would she still carpetbag to safer territory like she did in real life?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the odds that the U.S. House primary and the U.S. House special election in Alaska deliver different results?

100 % will have different Results although given the recent Events (re Mar-a-Lago) I expect Palin to win the Special as well as come out on top in the Regular Primary.

We have seen how Republican Turnout spiked in the wake of that Search Warrant (see Tim Michels Victory in WI). Kleefisch Campaign was hoping of 500-550K but we almost got 700K in the Republican Primary.

Are you saying Kleefisch would have won had the search never happened?

[Tekken_Guy]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

Insane take. Getting Liz Cheney out of Congress has dramatically reduced the probability of another such event. Getting her out of the country would be agreeable as well.

Supporting a cult of personality (and one that attempts to overturn the government) is one of the most antithetical viewpoints in opposition to the values established by the Constitution. It is tantamount to treason.

There is no good alternative in the Republican Party. We tried Romney in 2012, WWC stayed home costing Romney OH, WI, MI, PA.

I know OSR doesn't like to hear it but Romney also lost it because of his fraudulent Mormon Faith.

The Evangelical Base in the South never warmed up to him evident that he got considerable less of the White Evangelical Base Vote compared to Trump or even GWB in 2000 & 2004.

The moment Romney lost Republican Primaries and Caucuses like Missouri, Colorado, Mississippi, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia, South Carolina to Santorum & Gingrich I knew this wouldn't end up very well in November.

There actually is a palatable atlernative to Trump, and that's Ron DeSantis.