2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Do we know when a run-off officially gets called.

Also too, can someone remind the RGV voters that Cuellar is about to get arrested.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't think Luttrell is safe yet. He's only at 52.7% with 84% reporting, and the outstanding ballots don't favor him. Harris contains the vast majority of uncounted votes and so far it's not been favorable territory for him, and every other county is >99% in.
It's a tossup imo.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Figures the only day I was away from Atlas in quite a while, is Texas primary day...how ironic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

He's getting a fair bit of new territory I think, plus A-tier challenger, also he's not really entrenched? I guess that's the best explanation I can gather.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

He's getting a fair bit of new territory I think, plus A-tier challenger, also he's not really entrenched? I guess that's the best explanation I can gather.

Funnily enough the person who he's facing in the runoff (Collin County Judge Keith Self) is the person who swore him into Congress when he first was elected.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

He's getting a fair bit of new territory I think, plus A-tier challenger, also he's not really entrenched? I guess that's the best explanation I can gather.

Funnily enough the person who he's facing in the runoff (Collin County Judge Keith Self) is the person who swore him into Congress when he first was elected.

Hah, that is quite funny.

[ElectionsGuy]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

[Tekken_Guy]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

If that’s the case, De La Cruz is pretty much a lock to win in November and Garcia may win even if Cuellar is the D nominee and is clearly favored if it’s Cisneros. I wouldn’t even count out Flores upsetting Gonzalez.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Something interesting to note here is just how anti-establishment primary voters were today. While (as expected) popular Trump-endorsed Governor Abbott cruised to renomination with over 60% of the vote (still his worst performance), representatives didn't do as well.
In 2020, only 2 incumbent Republican Texan representatives won less than 80% of their primary vote. In 2022 10 did.

Dan Crenshaw, Van Taylor, Pat Fallon, Jake Ellzey, Kay Granger, Pete Sessions, Tony Gonzales, Michael Burgess, Michael Cloud and John Carter all won less than 80% of their primary vote, 5 won less than 70, 2 less than 60 and one (Taylor) failed to reach a majority.
This might actually be a record, either way though clearly Republican voters are in a much more anti-establishment mood than usual. I think this could bare very well for other primary challengers to incumbents.

[ElectionsGuy]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

If that’s the case, De La Cruz is pretty much a lock to win in November and Garcia may win even if Cuellar is the D nominee and is clearly favored if it’s Cisneros. I wouldn’t even count out Flores upsetting Gonzalez.

Notably, here's the turnout for TX-15 (which was redistricted to be slightly more Republican, keep in mind, but still)

2020: 26,329 R vs 44,444 D
2022: about 30K R, between 34-37K D

Also, Abbott is doing well in the R primary there, getting between 70-85% in these counties, compared to 67% statewide.

[GregTheGreat657]

The Attorney General R primary is headed to a runoff between Paxton and Bush

[GALeftist]

Pretty good night overall; Casar is going to the House, Cisneros makes the runoff, and Crockett seems heavily favored in the runoff.

However, THE CUELLAR CRIME FAMILY IS STEALING THIS ELECTION THE MEDIA'S COVERING IT UP

/s obv

[wbrocks67]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

So we went from R+20 in 2018 to R+28 last night, which is... not good. I mean, given the environment in 2018 and 2020, it's not *terrible*, but still not what you want to see if Dems want to make *any* inroads in TX

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

So we went from R+20 in 2018 to R+28 last night, which is... not good. I mean, given the environment in 2018 and 2020, it's not *terrible*, but still not what you want to see if Dems want to make *any* inroads in TX

I will say though, that a shift 8 points to the right from 2018 to 2022 means it is trending left pretty rapidly compared to the national environment.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Further Calls

Att. Gen. D, FIRST SPOT - Garza
Att. Gen. R - Paxton, Bush Runoff
Lt. Gov. D - Collier, Beckley Runoff
Comptroller D - Dudding, Vega Runoff
Land Commissioner D - Martinez, Kleberg Runoff
Land Commissioner R - Buckingham, Westley Runoff
Railroad Commissioner R, FIRST SPOT - Christian
---Districts:
3 R - Taylor, Self Runoff
5 D - Hill
7 R - Teague, Stroud Runoff
15 D, FIRST SPOT - Ramirez
24 D - McDowell, Gay Runoff
28 D - Cuellar, Cisneros Runoff
30 D - Crockett, Hamilton Runoff
32 R - Swad, Webb Runoff
35 R - McQueen, Rodriguez Runoff
37 R - Sharon, Lingsch Runoff
38 R - Hunt
------------------

Still not called: Att. Gen. D spot 2, Railroad Commissioner R Spot 2, 14 D, 15 D Spot 2, 29 R

[Real Texan Politics]

At this rate it seems like Luttrell is favored to barely survive a runoff.

Was hoping I wouldn't have another neocon as my congressman, yet here we are...

[Canis]

What's the PVI of the new TX-28? Does either nominee risk losing the general?

Clinton +19, biden +7, Hegar +6. Cuellar is definetely at risk if the FBI Scandal expands, Cisneros might be a bit green and also risk the district.

Yup due to the trends in the district and the National environment this race is a tossup regardless of the nominee probably Tilt D for now but definitely, one R's could grab. I really hope Cisnero's wins the runoff though Cuellar is a corrupt DINO who helped fundraise for Republicans and honestly might be weaker than Cisnero's in the GE depending on how the Corruption scandal develops. Cisnero's is an awesome candidate in line with my ideology and just a great person. If I have time to spare before the runoff I might go to a phone banking shift or 2 for her but my schedule is nuts as is so we'll see.

[Real Texan Politics]

In other news, Keith Self is now the nominee for TX-03, as Van Taylor has suspended his campaign after admitting to infidelity (yes, relating to the ISIS bride scandal).
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1499134727147696129?s=20&t=Q5anuTuz...

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling Railroad Commissioner R Spot 2 for Stogner

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DDHQ shows TX-08 at only 89% in with Luttrell at 52.1%. The only ballots left to count according to them come from Harris County, where Luttrell is performing terribly. If this is right there's a chance this could still be a runoff. However all the other sites are showing near 100% of the vote in. Why the discrepancy?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDHQ shows TX-08 at only 89% in with Luttrell at 52.1%. The only ballots left to count according to them come from Harris County, where Luttrell is performing terribly. If this is right there's a chance this could still be a runoff. However all the other sites are showing near 100% of the vote in. Why the discrepancy?

Possibly they stopped updating at some point last night.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DDHQ shows TX-08 at only 89% in with Luttrell at 52.1%. The only ballots left to count according to them come from Harris County, where Luttrell is performing terribly. If this is right there's a chance this could still be a runoff. However all the other sites are showing near 100% of the vote in. Why the discrepancy?

Possibly they stopped updating at some point last night.

Upon looking further that doesn't seem to be true. DDHQ has more votes counted than other sites. They might be predicting more votes left than others?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDHQ shows TX-08 at only 89% in with Luttrell at 52.1%. The only ballots left to count according to them come from Harris County, where Luttrell is performing terribly. If this is right there's a chance this could still be a runoff. However all the other sites are showing near 100% of the vote in. Why the discrepancy?

Possibly they stopped updating at some point last night.

Upon looking further that doesn't seem to be true. DDHQ has more votes counted than other sites. They might be predicting more votes left than others?

Maybe...honestly I just don't really trust them. I know they rely on their own sources rather than the 'pool' that the real news networks use, which just sort of seems to open them [DDHQ] up to error. They've also made some pretty stunning wrong calls in the past. I'd recommend just not paying attention to whatever they put out.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling 29 R for Schafranek and Garza (Runoff)

[2016]

The TX Primary was a very big Night for Donald Trump at the Congressional & State Level. Correct me if I am wrong but every Candidate he backed WON!