2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Minnesota Mike]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling IN-4 D for Day
Calling IN-6 D for Wirth
Calling IN-9 D for Fyfe

[Horus]

While Trump endorsed Vance, Mike Flynn endorsed Mandel. That stuck out to me. MAGA world is very divided here.

[Pink Panther]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

You know, I remember someone linking an article about how Trump, Cruz, and Paul were competing for influence with this race. Can you imagine if all three's backed candidates lost and the ramifications?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I do not see a path for Mandel here. It's Vance or Dolan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based on what's out I'd bet on Dolan honestly.

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance jumping up to 85¢ on PredictIt.

edit: 91¢

[Brother Jonathan]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Vance jumping up to 85¢ on PredictIt.

edit: 91¢

Yeah I just bet against him. I can see maybe arguing he has the advantage, but definitely not that high. If I'm right I win big bucks and if I'm wrong I'm only out $10.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Based on what's out I'd bet on Dolan honestly.

Isnt Hamilton supposed to be Vance's area

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521645836731572225

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Based on what's out I'd bet on Dolan honestly.

Isnt Hamilton supposed to be Vance's area

No, Hamilton is Cincinnati.  Vance is from Butler County (to the north) the way Hillary Clinton is "from" Arkansas.

[2016]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

Trumps Endorsement of Vance was supposed to give Vance an Early Vote Boost BUT he's only up 3 Points. So much for that Trump Endorsement.

And there is one guy who will be pretty happy if Dolan wins and that is former NC Governor McCrory seeing what's unfolding in Ohio.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I do not see a path for Mandel here. It's Vance or Dolan.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521645836731572225

And just like that...Mandel back in Second

[Matty]

Why is predictit not closer to 70-30?

What are they seeing.

[Brother Jonathan]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

Yeah, that too. I mean I was suspicious of the "Dolan surge" narrative at first but he really did seem to get a late bump, and you started seeing it across polls. Now the results are bearing it out too.

Granted, 21-24% of the vote is not a whole lot, but relative to where he had been it really is an impressive showing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is predictit not closer to 70-30?

What are they seeing.

PredictIt overreacts. Seize the opportunity.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

Trumps Endorsement of Vance was supposed to give Vance an Early Vote Boost BUT he's only up 3 Points. So much for that Trump Endorsement.

And there is one guy who will be pretty happy if Dolan wins and that is former NC Governor McCrory seeing what's unfolding in Ohio.

Yah Vance isnt anywhere near the strong candidate as he seems on paper.

[GALeftist]

Does the market know something I don't? Dolan at 5 cents seems absurdly low

[Matty]

Vance doing well on Election Day

[Benjamin Frank]

I do not see a path for Mandel here. It's Vance or Dolan.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521645836731572225

And just like that...Mandel back in Second

A 'moderate Republican' is somebody who likes Mussolini but not Hitler.

[Senator Incitatus]

[Wasserman tweet]

A few candidates have lost this way: Luther Strange, Russ Fagg, Nick Freitas.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think this race is Likely Vance at this moment