2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Also just so y’all don’t get yer knickers in a twist I’ll remind you SC is a 50+1% to win primary state.  

Rice is either going to win or go to a runoff tonight. I’d be shocked if Fry (or anyone else) clears 50% with the crowded field. Arthur has been putting a lot of big ads across Horry so I wouldn’t be shocked if she got 10%.

How'd that work out for you?

DDHQ says Beaufort finally dropped and Mace won it 52-46. That should be the ballgame.

Nikki Haley campaigned for Nancy Mace A LOT in the last couple of weeks + Nikki lives in her District. That certainly helped Nancy!

Oh well, here's to getting rid of her in 2024!

Fry is like less than 2% over 50%. He'll win, but it's not an 'own'

[YE]

https://twitter.com/thenvindy/status/1536955889906618368?s=21&t=8PCFJH79h5Z2...

Lovely. Her and Merchant are going to be representing my state for at least 4 years most likely…

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like Nevada’s electoral votes will be Safe R in 2024.
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1536948765914972161?s=21

Marchand could still lose in November, even if Lombardo and Laxalt win.

https://twitter.com/thenvindy/status/1536955889906618368?s=21&t=8PCFJH79h5Z2...

Lovely. Her and Merchant are going to be representing my state for at least 4 years most likely…

Nah, I think there’s a decent chance they run behind the rest of the ticket.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NV LT GOV R for Anthony!
Calling NV-AG R for Chattah!
Calling NV-4 R for Peters!

Uncalled:

NV-1 R
SC-Superintendent D
CA-2 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-30 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-AG Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2
TX-15 D

[wbrocks67]

Welp, interesting that NV Rs chose Marchant to drag the ticket down with them!

[Unelectable Bystander]

So I've been pouring over the numbers actually think the reason Rice might have failed to get a run off comes from Jamal Campbell's challenge to Jackie "Coach" Hayes. DIllon has been trending republican, albeit slowly, for a few cycles, but tonight the democratic primary population heavily outweighed that of the republican.

No one cares about Dillon County but Dillon County. Rep. Hayes has been in since the early 2000s and is wildly popular especially among the college educated class. He's a generic moderate liberal but also the town football coach and has a lot of connections from that and just being a native.

Many of the people that voted to save Hayes from his challenger (myself and most of my direct social circle included) would have potentially or even likely crossed over to vote for Rice. No other race is competitve in a significant way to cause Democrats to vote in the primary unless they are diehards. Had this challenge not happen you could see 1,000 to maybe even 2,500 more votes in the republican primary. It's hard to say how these voters would have voted but they likely would have been more heavy then the county as a whole.

It seems small but it might have been just enough to push Fry under 50% and give Rice a snowballs chance.

And that's why the GOP on a national level needs to do what the Virginia GOP is doing by scrapping primaries and going with conventions. It's how we got Youngkin, it's how we got Hung Cao, it's how we got Bob Good. Convention systems prevent Democrats like you from sabotaging our candidate selections. I don't want Republicans to do that for Democrats so you can hold Primaries and choose your candidates and we can hold Conventions and choose our people properly.

lol most of the people I’m talking about would have voted in the Republican primary instead of the democratic one. But ya know there does exist a thing called closed primaries?

Also Republicans hold just as much power to vote in a D primary if they want. It's called being strategic with your vote.

Also by and large Republican priamries are mostly GOP voters so if they keep electing canidates you see as flawed by a large margin your party might need to look in the mirror.

Conventions imo are just anti-democratic as a whole

I see your point, but I find it more anti-democratic when somebody wins a split field with like 28% of the vote even if a majority hates the person. They should at least move to RCV with multiple rounds so the ultimate winner has to win a majority against somebody

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NV-1 R for Robertson!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What is Robertson like? I know Peters is totally insane but I don't know much about Robertson

[Nutmeg]

I don't think there's been much discussion about D.C. yet. Races to watch are for mayor, attorney general, Council chair, and Wards 1, 3, and 5.

[kwabbit]

CA returns are confusing as always, with some red shifts and some blue shifts.

The D/R margin as it stands in the competitive districts are:

CA-03: R+7, Trump +2;
CA-09: D+5, Biden + 13;
CA-13: D+1, Biden +11;
CA-22: R+12, Biden +13;
CA-26: D+8, Biden +20;
CA-27: R+3, Biden +12;
CA-40: R+18, Biden +2;
CA-41: R+5, Trump +1;
CA-45: R+14, Biden +6;
CA-47: D+3, Biden +11;
CA-49: D+3, Biden +11;

CA-26 isn't likely to be competitive but I included it because the primary was within 10 pts. Judging from these results, incumbency is very powerful in the open primary. Incumbents whose party didn't get a clear majority stand to perform more poorly in the fall. That worsens the picture for Garcia, Porter, Levin, Calvert.

I'd give the following ratings:

CA-03: Likely R;
CA-09: Lean D;
CA-13: Tossup;
CA-22: Lean R;
CA-26: Safe D;
CA-27: Tossup;
CA-40: Likely R;
CA-41: Lean R;
CA-45: Likely R;
CA-47: Tossup;
CA-49: Tossup;

CA-13 actually voted to recall Newsom last year.

[I’m not Stu]

CA returns are confusing as always, with some red shifts and some blue shifts.

The D/R margin as it stands in the competitive districts are:

CA-03: R+7, Trump +2;
CA-09: D+5, Biden + 13;
CA-13: D+1, Biden +11;
CA-22: R+12, Biden +13;
CA-26: D+8, Biden +20;
CA-27: R+3, Biden +12;
CA-40: R+18, Biden +2;
CA-41: R+5, Trump +1;
CA-42: R+14, Biden +6;
CA-47: D+3, Biden +11;
CA-49: D+3, Biden +11;

CA-26 isn't likely to be competitive but I included it because the primary was within 10 pts. Judging from these results, incumbency is very powerful in the open primary. Incumbents whose party didn't get a clear majority stand to perform more poorly in the fall. That worsens the picture for Garcia, Porter, Levin, Calvert.

I'd give the following ratings:

CA-03: Likely R;
CA-09: Lean D;
CA-13: Tossup;
CA-22: Lean R;
CA-26: Safe D;
CA-27: Tossup;
CA-40: Likely R;
CA-42: Likely R;
CA-47: Tossup;
CA-49: Tossup;

CA-13 actually voted to recall Newsom last year.

CA-42 is safe D. Robert Garcia will win in a landslide against John Briscoe.

[kwabbit]

CA returns are confusing as always, with some red shifts and some blue shifts.

The D/R margin as it stands in the competitive districts are:

CA-03: R+7, Trump +2;
CA-09: D+5, Biden + 13;
CA-13: D+1, Biden +11;
CA-22: R+12, Biden +13;
CA-26: D+8, Biden +20;
CA-27: R+3, Biden +12;
CA-40: R+18, Biden +2;
CA-41: R+5, Trump +1;
CA-42: R+14, Biden +6;
CA-47: D+3, Biden +11;
CA-49: D+3, Biden +11;

CA-26 isn't likely to be competitive but I included it because the primary was within 10 pts. Judging from these results, incumbency is very powerful in the open primary. Incumbents whose party didn't get a clear majority stand to perform more poorly in the fall. That worsens the picture for Garcia, Porter, Levin, Calvert.

I'd give the following ratings:

CA-03: Likely R;
CA-09: Lean D;
CA-13: Tossup;
CA-22: Lean R;
CA-26: Safe D;
CA-27: Tossup;
CA-40: Likely R;
CA-42: Likely R;
CA-47: Tossup;
CA-49: Tossup;

CA-13 actually voted to recall Newsom last year.

CA-42 is safe D. Robert Garcia will win in a landslide against John Briscoe.

I must’ve made a typo. I’ll edit. I meant 45, Michelle Steele’s district.

[I’m not Stu]

CA-Board of Equalization-4 slot 2 probably goes to David Dodson.

[Minnesota Mike]

I compared the 2022 CA primary Gov vote so far to the 2018 CA primary Gov vote and statewide there is very little change.

Two Party vote.

2022 63.2% D - 36.8% R
2018 63.3% D - 36.7% R

[wbrocks67]

I compared the 2022 CA primary Gov vote so far to the 2018 CA primary Gov vote and statewide there is very little change.

Two Party vote.

2022 63.2% D - 36.8% R
2018 63.3% D - 36.7% R

but I thought all of the CA Latinos/Hispanics were fleeing the party en mass, especially in places like CA?

[RI]

Simply throwing Shellenberger's votes away when there was no similar independent in 2018 skews things a bit.

[Minnesota Mike]

CA returns are confusing as always, with some red shifts and some blue shifts.

The D/R margin as it stands in the competitive districts are:

CA-03: R+7, Trump +2;
CA-09: D+5, Biden + 13;
CA-13: D+1, Biden +11;
CA-22: R+12, Biden +13;
CA-26: D+8, Biden +20;
CA-27: R+3, Biden +12;
CA-40: R+18, Biden +2;
CA-41: R+5, Trump +1;
CA-45: R+14, Biden +6;
CA-47: D+3, Biden +11;
CA-49: D+3, Biden +11;

CA-26 isn't likely to be competitive but I included it because the primary was within 10 pts. Judging from these results, incumbency is very powerful in the open primary. Incumbents whose party didn't get a clear majority stand to perform more poorly in the fall. That worsens the picture for Garcia, Porter, Levin, Calvert.

I'd give the following ratings:

CA-03: Likely R;
CA-09: Lean D;
CA-13: Tossup;
CA-22: Lean R;
CA-26: Safe D;
CA-27: Tossup;
CA-40: Likely R;
CA-41: Lean R;
CA-45: Likely R;
CA-47: Tossup;
CA-49: Tossup;

CA-13 actually voted to recall Newsom last year.

I would put CA-47 and CA-49 as lean D instead of tossup. Since Top 2 came into  effect there is normally a small shift toward the Democrats in the General.  With both already being D+3 and Porter and Levin having a fundraising advantage (Porter by an absurd amount) I think they are lean to likely D. Also watch CA-22, The primary will narrow with almost everything left in the Kern part of the district (the blue part).

[Minnesota Mike]

Simply throwing Shellenberger's votes away when there was no similar independent in 2018 skews things a bit.

It's not perfect but two party vote is IMO the best way to do comparisons. Plus there is no guarantee Shellenberger's votes would have gone Republican, he did run as a Democrat in 2018. There are also a couple of Greens who combined for 2% if we want to go down that road.

[Senator Incitatus]

What is Robertson like? I know Peters is totally insane but I don't know much about Robertson

Based only on his campaign website, I'm shocked he won.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is Robertson like? I know Peters is totally insane but I don't know much about Robertson

Based only on his campaign website, I'm shocked he won.

Can you expand on that?

[kwabbit]

I would put CA-47 and CA-49 as lean D instead of tossup. Since Top 2 came into  effect there is normally a small shift toward the Democrats in the General.  With both already being D+3 and Porter and Levin having a fundraising advantage (Porter by an absurd amount) I think they are lean to likely D. Also watch CA-22, The primary will narrow with almost everything left in the Kern part of the district (the blue part).

Those were the boldest calls maybe, I would call them Tilt D but I don't like to use tilts. Levin and Porter are definite favorites but a Lean requires too much certainty. I think they occupy maybe the most likely double digit Biden seats to go red (outside of incumbents like Garcia/Valadao). Baugh seems like a good recruit too, Maryott not as much. We've seen that Republicans with non-MAGA bona fides can quite well in SoCal. It's no coincidence that there were so many House GOP overperformances there in 2020. Right now, I'd expect a 1-2 pt win for Porter and a 2-3 pt win for Levin in the GE.

[Senator Incitatus]

What is Robertson like? I know Peters is totally insane but I don't know much about Robertson

Based only on his campaign website, I'm shocked he won.

Can you expand on that?

You can usually tell which candidates are well-funded and/or serious about running by the quality of their site. Robertson's is just poorly assembled. Not bottom-of-the-barrel but clearly he or someone close to the campaign cobbled it together with whatever tools the NRCC makes available to any candidate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling SC superintendent D for Ellis!
Calling TX-15 D for Vallejo!
Calling CA-AG Slot 2 for Hochman!
Calling CA-14 Slot 2 for Hayden!
Calling CA-30 Slot 2 for Pudlo!
Calling CA-37 Slot 2 for Perry!

Uncalled:
CA-2 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2

[free my dawg]

Lmaoooooo Garcia at 47%

Imagine seeing Smith spend 3 years reeing at anyone who disagrees with her and thinking "Damn I want me some more of that"

[I’m not Stu]

Calling SC superintendent D for Ellis!
Calling TX-15 D for Vallejo!
Calling CA-AG Slot 2 for Hochman!
Calling CA-14 Slot 2 for Wong!
Calling CA-30 Slot 2 for Pudlo!
Calling CA-37 Slot 2 for Perry!

Uncalled:
CA-2 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2

It was called for Hayden.