Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[WalterWhite]

I have checked, and I only even found one single mention of the Twitter account @War_Mapper on this entire forum.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm pro-Ukraine, but I don't understand the narrative that Ukraine is winning. The counteroffensive is going on at a snail's pace.

Okay so I’ll work underneath the notion this is a good faith question. The reason people would say that Ukraine is winning despite the counterattack being slow is that:
 1)Russia has failed in pretty much all of their objectives and thanks to the winter and Bakhmut campaign in particular punched themselves out of being able to launch serious offensive attacks 2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one
 3) Ukraine is still making progress in this campaign and getting closer to being able to threaten Russia’s most important logistics supply chains. For example, the reason Robotyne has seen the heaviest fighting is if Ukraine liberates it then Tokmak is in tune artillery range. Along with a different part of the front where Ukraine is pushing near Staromlynivka which when liberated hurts Russia logistics as well.
4) Ukraine is able to replace losses better than Russia between western aid and that unlike Putin, Zelensky doesn’t need to insulate huge chunks of his population from mobilization

[Hollywood]

Just came in to see how things are going. Klischiivka, Robotyne, and Andriivka are still standing despite certain users assuring me days ago it "collapsed".

Ukraine just relaunched their assault on Klischivka, and took a small low-land to the North.  I think Andriivka is proving difficult to attack from the West given the small area of space between the town the and Canal.  The Bakhmut Front may be Ukraine's best chance to get a devastating moral victory. 

Robotyne is F-ing bloodbath for the Ukrainians.  Ukrainians are advancing through numerous blasted vehicles and dead comrades.  The forested areas covering Russian dugouts between Robotyne and the Defense Line near Verbove have been cut down by Ukrainian Cluster Bombs that forced the Russians into a tactical retreat, as well as Russia Artillery and drones that easily pounded AFU soldiers unable to conceal themselves.  Many Commentators reviewing the footage from the last few days have taken notice of Ukraine's inability to conceal their artillery, tanks, and infantry in covered positions.

Meanwhile, in the Kupyansk Direction, Russians made a large advance into the fields NE of Syn'kivka.  I don't know if this is a sign that the Ukrainian Defense is loosening-up, but Russia is putting pressure on Ukraine to spread their forces by forcing Ukraine to pull them from other areas.  

[Hindsight was 2020]

I have checked, and I only even found one single mention of the Twitter account @War_Mapper on this entire forum.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper

That is true which is weird as I love war mapper. I’ll start trying to work them into my post updates

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So June was the best month since November for Ukraine. But yet they gained only 0.04% and Russia occupies 17.5%, so it looks like it'd take at least 35 years  for Ukraine to take back all the territory at this rate.


https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1686417004293464064

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

"If English is your mother tongue, you are English."

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1688424191559692289?s=20

The way she says "We, in the West" and then confuses "mother tongue" and "native language" ("tongue" and "language" are the same word in Russian), reminds me of some dictatorship-loving "Americans" on this forum.

[Hindsight was 2020]

"If English is your mother tongue, you are English."

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1688424191559692289?s=20

The way she says "We, in the West" and then confuses "mother tongue" and "native language" ("tongue" and "language" are the same word in Russian), reminds me of some dictatorship-loving "Americans" on this forum.

Not as bad as Seymour Hersh‘s “poor waif in his underwear” moment

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Just came in to see how things are going. Klischiivka, Robotyne, and Andriivka are still standing despite certain users assuring me days ago it "collapsed".

Ukraine just relaunched their assault on Klischivka, and took a small low-land to the North.  I think Andriivka is proving difficult to attack from the West given the small area of space between the town the and Canal.  The Bakhmut Front may be Ukraine's best chance to get a devastating moral victory. 

Robotyne is F-ing bloodbath for the Ukrainians.  Ukrainians are advancing through numerous blasted vehicles and dead comrades.  The forested areas covering Russian dugouts between Robotyne and the Defense Line near Verbove have been cut down by Ukrainian Cluster Bombs that forced the Russians into a tactical retreat, as well as Russia Artillery and drones that easily pounded AFU soldiers unable to conceal themselves.  Many Commentators reviewing the footage from the last few days have taken notice of Ukraine's inability to conceal their artillery, tanks, and infantry in covered positions.

Meanwhile, in the Kupyansk Direction, Russians made a large advance into the fields NE of Syn'kivka.  I don't know if this is a sign that the Ukrainian Defense is loosening-up, but Russia is putting pressure on Ukraine to spread their forces by forcing Ukraine to pull them from other areas.  

Thanks for the detailed review, Mr. Konashenkov.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Not as bad as Seymour Hersh‘s “poor waif in his underwear” moment

This is what happens when a lazy journalist hires guys from Russia or Asia as ghostwriters for a penny.

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1688590363613708294?s=20
As much as I’d love for them to be deeper into the Russian lines the ability to keep this good attrition rate during this counterattack will be helpful for UA throughout the year and beyond. Especially when the area they got hit the hardest (Bradley) already are being replaced and thankfully kept almost all the crews alive

Ukraine is on the counteroffensive and should be suffering a higher vehicle attrition rate in favor of Russia. Ukraine has the attrition factor to its advantage, Ukraine is losing 1 vehicle for every 2-3 Russian vehicles.

When the war started Russia had 3400 tanks, now they have 1400 tanks. Ukraine has more tanks on the battlefield, Ukraine has 1500 tanks.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1688621014861656065?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just came in to see how things are going. Klischiivka, Robotyne, and Andriivka are still standing despite certain users assuring me days ago it "collapsed".

Ukraine just relaunched their assault on Klischivka, and took a small low-land to the North.  I think Andriivka is proving difficult to attack from the West given the small area of space between the town the and Canal.  The Bakhmut Front may be Ukraine's best chance to get a devastating moral victory. 

Robotyne is F-ing bloodbath for the Ukrainians.  Ukrainians are advancing through numerous blasted vehicles and dead comrades.  The forested areas covering Russian dugouts between Robotyne and the Defense Line near Verbove have been cut down by Ukrainian Cluster Bombs that forced the Russians into a tactical retreat, as well as Russia Artillery and drones that easily pounded AFU soldiers unable to conceal themselves.  Many Commentators reviewing the footage from the last few days have taken notice of Ukraine's inability to conceal their artillery, tanks, and infantry in covered positions.

Meanwhile, in the Kupyansk Direction, Russians made a large advance into the fields NE of Syn'kivka.  I don't know if this is a sign that the Ukrainian Defense is loosening-up, but Russia is putting pressure on Ukraine to spread their forces by forcing Ukraine to pull them from other areas.  

Thanks for the detailed review, Mr. Konashenkov.

Oh god Hollywood is posting here again? I thought the mods banned him from this thread after calling for Zelensky to be assassinated? I also love his “Robotyne is a f-ing bloodbath for Ukraine” is right below my post that documented Ukraine’s actual attrition rate during this campaign lol

[Storr]

Shocker. Americans might be increasingly skeptical about funding Ukraine's war effort with their "hard earned tax dollars", but that doesn't mean they think it's unimportant to the US for Ukraine to win:

https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1688608859605098496?s=20

[Stranger in a strange land]

Not as bad as Seymour Hersh‘s “poor waif in his underwear” moment

This is what happens when a lazy journalist hires guys from Russia or Asia as ghostwriters for a penny.

What happened to Hersh is likely far more sinister. An FSB operative claiming to be an US official reached out to him pretending to want to leak information (that just so happened to confirm all of Hersh's ideas and suspicions), and Hersh, who's 86, was completely fooled. If "Special Agent John Martin from the IRS" calls an elderly person telling them that they owe back taxes, the fact that he has a thick Indian accent and requests payment via Western Union transfers or iTunes gift cards doesn't ring any alarm bells.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not as bad as Seymour Hersh‘s “poor waif in his underwear” moment

This is what happens when a lazy journalist hires guys from Russia or Asia as ghostwriters for a penny.

What happened to Hersh is likely far more sinister. An FSB operative claiming to be an US official reached out to him pretending to want to leak information (that just so happened to confirm all of Hersh's ideas and suspicions), and Hersh, who's 86, was completely fooled. If "Special Agent John Martin from the IRS" calls an elderly person telling them that they owe back taxes, the fact that he has a thick Indian accent and requests payment via Western Union transfers or iTunes gift cards doesn't ring any alarm bells.

I missed this whole thing. What happened exactly?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not as bad as Seymour Hersh‘s “poor waif in his underwear” moment

This is what happens when a lazy journalist hires guys from Russia or Asia as ghostwriters for a penny.

What happened to Hersh is likely far more sinister. An FSB operative claiming to be an US official reached out to him pretending to want to leak information (that just so happened to confirm all of Hersh's ideas and suspicions), and Hersh, who's 86, was completely fooled. If "Special Agent John Martin from the IRS" calls an elderly person telling them that they owe back taxes, the fact that he has a thick Indian accent and requests payment via Western Union transfers or iTunes gift cards doesn't ring any alarm bells.

I missed this whole thing. What happened exactly?

So long story short Hersh had an article in his substack of a supposedly anonymous US state department official who was saying Ukraine’s military was collapsing and Zelensky was a corrupt moron. However, people noticed that at one point in the article the official calls Zelensky “a poor waif in his underwear” which is no expression in the English language but is a rough English translation of a Russian saying

[bilaps]

2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one

And what is your source for this?

[Hindsight was 2020]

2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one

And what is your source for this?

Mainly people like Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and warspotting
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1688783615394516992?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1688900063609663489?s=12
Lol

[bilaps]

2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one

And what is your source for this?

Mainly people like Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and warspotting
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1688783615394516992?s=12

Well, those are all heavily pro Ukrainian sources. It makes no sense in reality that Ukraine is gaining so little if that is even remotely true.

[Hindsight was 2020]

2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one

And what is your source for this?

Mainly people like Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and warspotting
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1688783615394516992?s=12

Well, those are all heavily pro Ukrainian sources. It makes no sense in reality that Ukraine is gaining so little if that is even remotely true.

All three of those sources are beyond fair in their analysis despite their sympathies. Also it totally makes sense as the reason for the slow progress is Russia heavily mined everything in the area so Ukraine is deliberately going slow to avoid heavy casualties

[CumbrianLefty]

So June was the best month since November for Ukraine. But yet they gained only 0.04% and Russia occupies 17.5%, so it looks like it'd take at least 35 years  for Ukraine to take back all the territory at this rate.

Last year they made significant advances in September-November - could the same happen again?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one

And what is your source for this?

Mainly people like Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and warspotting
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1688783615394516992?s=12

Well, those are all heavily pro Ukrainian sources. It makes no sense in reality that Ukraine is gaining so little if that is even remotely true.

Oryx is about as reliable as it gets in the public domain. I'm less familiar with WarSpotting, but it seems to have a lot of the same people involved.

IIRC, Russia gained land during the Donbas offensive (and, unsustainably, during the initial debacle) with a worse equipment loss ratio than what this data suggests they're experiencing now.

Equipment losses aren't the only factors in deciding whether an army can hold or take ground (which is one of the reason's I'm bearish about this counteroffensive at the moment).

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html

"Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’"

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So June was the best month since November for Ukraine. But yet they gained only 0.04% and Russia occupies 17.5%, so it looks like it'd take at least 35 years  for Ukraine to take back all the territory at this rate.

Last year they made significant advances in September-November - could the same happen again?

It's always possible but that doesn't mean it's likely.