Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

A solution is to give Ukraine ballistic missiles and let Ukraine blow up buildings in Moscow and St. Petersburg every day until the end of the war.

That way, regular Russians aren't insulated from the war.

Interesting idea.
I don't see Washington doing it least because it has a controlling attitude with its arms (the Russians are much more lenient in that department). If it really had to be done I guess we could give them to Ukraine and tell them how to use it.

I disagree the reason Washington wouldn’t do it is there are too many people in the administration like Jake Sullivan who are convinced Russia will drop a nuke if Ukraine starts really striking their territory

That could be an additional reason, probably is. But clearing the hurdle that is the controlling attitude with its arms is a prerequisite that makes it unlikely even if said sense Russia would start dropping nukes wasn't there.

[smoltchanov]

Money will always find a way.

Exactly what happens. I was repeatedly told (including by my own superiors): "we can buy everything as usual now, only with a price to be 1/3 higher. Via Kyrgyzstan". And i think - not only Kyrgyzstan.... So, the REAL effect of "sanctions" isn't that great..... May be - even minimal... But for us, who need (for example, as i do) to buy a book on Amazon, and can't (not because of money, but becase our credit cards are NOT excepted anymore) - yes, WE feel "sanctions effect". State - almost no...

[Hollywood]

Somewhat comical chart of German exports to Kazakhstan.  I wonder what happened in 2022.


Of course, if you look at German exports to Russia+Central Asia you can see the drop


I bet if one were to add Turkey and the Caucasus states the German drop in exports to Russia + proxies will be even smaller than the chart above.  This sort of explains why the total economic impact of sanctions on Russia and Germany ended up being less than expected.  Money will always find a way.

I did chuckle as soon as I saw the chart, because I knew the departure between export and import  with Krygystan was measured in millions.  Anyone that actually got an education can see what's happening.  Imports to Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Belarus from Germany rapidly increasing alongside exports to Russia.  There is an influx of oil, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, fertilizer, food products, machinery, and metals moving through Azerbaijan, which has recently signed a contract with the EU to double Oil exports, as well as agreed to import a billion barrels from Russia in February. Australia is ramping up imports of refined oils from China and India (Russian Origin), and China responded by terminating tariffs on Australian barely. These sanctions has become a boom for Russia's allies, and Russia's oil exports are now back to pre-war levels.  

Essentially, Biden has lost Azerbaijan as an ally by criticizing their treatment of the Armenian people.  US statements on Armenia has also pissed off the Turks, and Erdogan is obviously pissed that Biden backed his opposition.  Turkey has also increased trade between Russia and Europe  The Biden Administration needs to stop interfering with foreign elections.  Even Netanyahu hates Biden for giving his opposition a win right before the vote, but Israel can't leave the relationship.  They can only screw with the US.  

If the US wins this war, it will be in spite of Biden's foreign policy mishaps.  I doubt he can raise Ukraine as an election, because the public is starting to sour on it.  55% of Americans think the US should stop funding Ukraine, and 32% of the remainder don't want to send weapons.  61% of Democrats, 39% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans support sending weapons.  Independents are the largest group (55%) that think the US has done enough for Ukraine.  Only 43% approve of Biden's handling of Russia, and 45% support his handling of Ukraine.  
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html  

[smoltchanov]

The people of former Soviet republics (minus Baltics) are still connected in billion ways with Russia, and the same generally true for their governments as well (weapons, oil & gas, myriads of former economic ties, migrants, and so on). You can't to "sanction" one of them (in this case - Russia) and continue normal trade relation with other. As a result - you "sanction" Russian PEOPLE (yes, including oligarchs, but it's them, who usually find a way around), not russian GOVERNMENT...

[Hollywood]

The people of former Soviet republics (minus Baltics) are still connected in billion ways with Russia, and the same generally true for their governments as well (weapons, oil & gas, myriads of former economic ties, migrants, and so on). You can't to "sanction" one of them (in this case - Russia) and continue normal trade relation with other. As a result - you "sanction" Russian PEOPLE (yes, including oligarchs, but it's them, who usually find a way around), not russian GOVERNMENT...

I disagree.  I think Putin had a game plan for dealing with the sanctions, and he cultivated the right relationships while Biden insulted and snubbed important allies that he viewed as 'pariahs'.  He even swayed Israel towards a more neutral stance, and Russia recently held a meeting between Turkey,  Syria, and Iran to dissuade the latter from acquiring nukes.  Turkey and Azerbaijan will allow Israel to fly over their territory, and they've already accomplished that goal.  Russia allowed it to happen as they did in Syria.  Russia didn't say a word.  They know how to keep a secret.  At this point, there is no reason to antagonize Israel when their clandestine military prowess could shift the balance in Ukraine. 

In contrast, Biden's policy towards Israel is demented.  They are constantly leaking Israeli Intelligence, interfering in Israeli politics, and almost blew-up the ME 'Peace' deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.  His Administration, along with Zelensky's, abstained from voting at the Un Security Council. Recently leaked documents showed that the US had contacts with a secret group within Mossad that was attempting to start a revolt against Netanyahu.  They met with the Mossad leader in Washington to discuss the plan. The DOJ is still wondering who leaked the documents.  It was Israel.  They also released Information exposing spies in the Russian Ministry. 
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/us/politics/spyware-blacklist-israel-us.html

As far as Israel is concerned, the Biden Administration just declared war on their country by attacking the head of state. 

[smoltchanov]

The people of former Soviet republics (minus Baltics) are still connected in billion ways with Russia, and the same generally true for their governments as well (weapons, oil & gas, myriads of former economic ties, migrants, and so on). You can't to "sanction" one of them (in this case - Russia) and continue normal trade relation with other. As a result - you "sanction" Russian PEOPLE (yes, including oligarchs, but it's them, who usually find a way around), not russian GOVERNMENT...

I disagree.  I think Putin had a game plan for dealing with the sanctions, and he cultivated the right relationships while Biden insulted and snubbed important allies that he viewed as 'pariahs'.  He even swayed Israel towards a more neutral stance, and Russia recently held a meeting between Turkey,  Syria, and Iran to dissuade the latter from acquiring nukes.  Turkey and Azerbaijan will allow Israel to fly over their territory, and they've already accomplished that goal.  Russia allowed it to happen as they did in Syria.  Russia didn't say a word.  They know how to keep a secret.  At this point, there is no reason to antagonize Israel when their clandestine military prowess could shift the balance in Ukraine. 

In contrast, Biden's policy towards Israel is demented.  They are constantly leaking Israeli Intelligence, interfering in Israeli politics, and almost blew-up the ME 'Peace' deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.  His Administration, along with Zelensky's, abstained from voting at the Un Security Council. Recently leaked documents showed that the US had contacts with a secret group within Mossad that was attempting to start a revolt against Netanyahu.  They met with the Mossad leader in Washington to discuss the plan. The DOJ is still wondering who leaked the documents.  It was Israel.  They also released Information exposing spies in the Russian Ministry. 
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/us/politics/spyware-blacklist-israel-us.html

As far as Israel is concerned, the Biden Administration just declared war on their country by attacking the head of state. 

I don't see too much disagreements in your post. Russia leaders knew perfectly well, that they mostly can count at least on Kazakhstan and former Soviet republics of Central Asia plus at least one between Armenia and Azerbaijan as "trade intermediaries". To avoid most of the sanction effects that's more then enough (even if Baltic states, Georgia and Moldavia will observe them).

[bilaps]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

A solution is to give Ukraine ballistic missiles and let Ukraine blow up buildings in Moscow and St. Petersburg every day until the end of the war.

That way, regular Russians aren't insulated from the war.

So, war crimes against Russian people will make Russian people turn against Russian regime. Makes sense.

[smoltchanov]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

A solution is to give Ukraine ballistic missiles and let Ukraine blow up buildings in Moscow and St. Petersburg every day until the end of the war.

That way, regular Russians aren't insulated from the war.

So, war crimes against Russian people will make Russian people turn against Russian regime. Makes sense.

Not for me...

[jaichind]

http://

Money will always find a way.

Exactly what happens. I was repeatedly told (including by my own superiors): "we can buy everything as usual now, only with a price to be 1/3 higher. Via Kyrgyzstan". And i think - not only Kyrgyzstan.... So, the REAL effect of "sanctions" isn't that great..... May be - even minimal... But for us, who need (for example, as i do) to buy a book on Amazon, and can't (not because of money, but becase our credit cards are NOT excepted anymore) - yes, WE feel "sanctions effect". State - almost no...

The impact of sanctions tends to be greater for those higher up on the income scale as they are the ones who are more likely to buy imported products.  The Russian government seems to prioritize limiting impact for people lower down on the income scale.  This war shows Putin's base is the rural and suburban lower middle class and not the oligarchs.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I recently heard about this weird but fun theory that tries to explain how power and mentality in different societies work through this constant division between 3 groups of power.

- The Warrior
- The Merchant
- The Sage

In each society you would have a dominant power that defines the purpose and main goals of the society, assuming power with the assistance of the secondary power, which exists more as a means toll to ensure the goals of the dominant power. Together, these two (Dominant and Secondary powers) subjugate and repress the Third Group, whose goals end up seen as a threat for the dominance of the two main groups who define what the national identity means.

The US is obviously mainly a Merchant society (more like a corporation tbh), sustained by the Warrior group. The military power exists as a means to ensure the economic advantage and profits over competitors. The Sage are repressed.

China is a Sage society, sustained by the Merchant group. Commerce and Trade exist as a means to sustain the ideological concepts and goals of the intelectual communist elites. The Warrior are repressed.

While Russia is a Warrior society, sustained by the Sage group. The intelectual concepts are used as a mean to ensure the Warrior (military) dominance. The Merchant are repressed and the ones who see the consequences of the Warrior-Sage alliance.

That means, it’s possible to notice where each society “weakness” is based on the group that’s repressed, as they’re the ones capable of creating a dissonance within the established order in order to create some sort of break. But for that, you depend on creating a break within the two groups in power.

Usually more liberal societies are defined by the Merchant group dominance, regardless of who is the supporting power. Whenever this group isn’t the main dominant, societies tend to become more closed.

The sanctions on Russia had this hope of targeting Merchant group in hopes of stimulating an upheaval against Putin, but Russian history has always been one of the Sage-Warrior taking turns as the dominant power, while the Merchant have always been repressed.

In USSR days you had the Sage group as the dominant one with the Warrior as a secondary, which was a break with Russian Empire days when Warrior dominated and Sage supported it, logic that has only returned post the fall of USSR.

This was indeed the case, but the Marxist PRC, like all Marxist states, is a militaristic type.

Russia has always been militaristic, you are right, and the Bolsheviks raised the level of this militarism to some megalomaniac level.

The USA is full of militarists, but because of the complex political system, they're balanced in politics.

In general, a very beautiful reflection, you should write poetry.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1688095623000547328?s=20

One huge issue that would have to be solved before Ukraine could get EU membership is the funding formula. States get funds based off how much agricultural land they have and how poor they are. (Relatively) dirt poor Ukraine would make every other state in the EU a net loser under EU funding formulas.

Indeed. In addition, the only country the EU has added since 1989 that's as populous as Ukraine (or larger) is Poland. Even if Ukraine's post-war population is 25 million, that would still hold true. It seems likely that the most influential EU countries (France and Germany) will be very wary of adding a country with such a large and poor (for European standards) population.

It's one thing if you add Albania or North Macedonia to the EU, with their small populations. Even with their relatively low costs based on the existing EU funding formula, those countries have faced an agonizingly slow EU accession process. It's a whole different level of financial commitment when it's a country like Ukraine.

Ukraine has a great intellectual potential, at least it had until the Russians began to exterminate the Ukrainians, kidnap them and force them to emigrate. If Ukraine is helped to recover and rid it of Russian sabotage, then fueled by economic and cultural ties with Europe, it will easily replace Russia for the world. Since Russia decided to become Xinjiang 2.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Imagine if American and British "political technologists" were as powerful as Russian propaganda claims they are:

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1688026905847758848?s=20

Considering that almost all the accusations that the ruscists make against the West are their own projection, I am afraid to even imagine what is happening in the Russian army...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1688526272857583616https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1688520603198767104

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1688518745407242240

[Storr]

Russia is a parody of itself:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1688420341717090304?s=20

[Red Velvet]

Robin Brooks has already said it: Though Germans decreased their exports to Russia since war began, they largely increased exports to Belarus; Kazakhstan and Central Asia since the same event happened.

And yet these same people who sustain the Russian war machine have the NERVE to demand other people to boycott Russia. It’s all a bunch of theatrics.

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1688574632066957312

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1688552386464186369

[Storr]

"If English is your mother tongue, you are English."

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1688424191559692289?s=20

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1688575978245656576

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1688590363613708294?s=20
As much as I’d love for them to be deeper into the Russian lines the ability to keep this good attrition rate during this counterattack will be helpful for UA throughout the year and beyond. Especially when the area they got hit the hardest (Bradley) already are being replaced and thankfully kept almost all the crews alive

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1688554661450506240

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1688615926667653120

[Hollywood]

Ukraine is losing multiple troops for each Russian they kill in the counter-offensive.  Russia is cleaning-up Howitzers, Tanks, and Armored Vehicles.  UFA Troops were ditching their vehicles to advance towards covered positions that were scattered with mines, as their artillery unloaded a barrage of shells and cluster bombs.  The Russians simply left those positions, and shelled the Ukrainians that attempted to hold those very same positions.  In some of the videos below, you can see uncovered dugouts that are surrounded by completely leveled forests.  Their offensive force is starting to unravel as they are constantly attempting to retake positions that has become a graveyard of bodies and vehicles, as Russians fire artillery and drones.  

This first video kind exemplifies the chaos among AFU Troops on the Zaporizhzhia front. One Russian tank destroys 8 armored vehicles, and Ukrainians can't tell from which direction cause they scatter thinking its a mine or artillery strikes.  https://rumble.com/v354w26-details-of-epic-one-on-eight-armored-battle-denazificationmilitaryqperation.html

https://rumble.com/v35edfg--ukraine-russia-war-45th-oabr-destroy-howitzer-and-spgs-with-artillery-clus.html

https://rumble.com/v35eieq--ukraine-russia-war-russia-drones-strike-2-spgs-brave-crews-fight-fires-to-.html

https://rumble.com/v3214fy-russian-soldiers-show-off-graveyard-of-u.s.-bradleys.html

https://rumble.com/v3179xh-another-graveyard-of-nato-vehicles-in-zaporozhye.html

https://rumble.com/v35efts--ukraine-russia-war-russian-ka-52-alligator-destroys-moving-ua-vehicle-guid.html

https://rumble.com/v3328rd-ukrainian-nato-armor-graveyard-at-vremyevsky.html

https://rumble.com/v35eh8c--ukraine-russia-war-russia-lancet-strikes-on-swedish-cv-90-and-dutch-ypr-76.html

https://rumble.com/v3352w9-zaporozhye-front-orekhovskoe-direction-near-rabotino-settlement.html

https://rumble.com/v2ucxj6-disturbing-footage-uncovered-bodies-of-ukrainian-soldiers-expose-harsh-real.html

[Woody]

Just came in to see how things are going. Klischiivka, Robotyne, and Andriivka are still standing despite certain users assuring me days ago it "collapsed".

[SnowLabrador]

I'm pro-Ukraine, but I don't understand the narrative that Ukraine is winning. The counteroffensive is going on at a snail's pace.

[pppolitics]

I'm pro-Ukraine, but I don't understand the narrative that Ukraine is winning. The counteroffensive is going on at a snail's pace.

You are not fooling anyone.