Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

"Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one"

Economist admits that Russia's economy can sustain a long war but now argues that for Russia to win the rise in intensity of the conflict cannot be sustained.  That is very possible but if I had to guess Russia's plans are to win a long low intensity attrition war.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

"Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one"

Economist admits that Russia's economy can sustain a long war but now argues that for Russia to win the rise in intensity of the conflict cannot be sustained.  That is very possible but if I had to guess Russia's plans are to win a long low intensity attrition war.

So the goal for the West could be to continue to increase the intensity still further and for as long as possible.

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

"Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one"

Economist admits that Russia's economy can sustain a long war but now argues that for Russia to win the rise in intensity of the conflict cannot be sustained.  That is very possible but if I had to guess Russia's plans are to win a long low intensity attrition war.

So the goal for the West could be to continue to increase the intensity still further and for as long as possible.

Correct, at least if you go with Economist's analysis.  Russia's plan seems to be drag the war out in a  low intensity conflict and wait for collective West internal politics to reduce their level of support for Ukraine.  The collective West strategy, if that is the case, has to be to up the ante as soon as possible.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

PMC Wagner will not accept take prisoners of war anymore. It's kill on sight from here on out.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1650178073436774400
https://twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1650112397179232256
Translation:

"We will never violate international laws of humanism. And the law of humanism starts from the moment you take a person prisoner. You take a prisoner - start taking care of him, treat him, don't maim him and give him back home after a while on an exchange. So we will not violate the rules of humanism. And we will just destroy everyone on the battlefield. We don't yet know the name of our guy, who was wounded and shot by Ukrainians. And we will kill everyone who are on the battlefield. Don't take any more POWs".

Do you seriously think this makes you clowns look good?

Also, I've come up with codenames a la Tokyo Rose for all of our pro-Russia clowns:

-Bakhmut Bob - Woodbury (I think Dead0 already came up with that one)
-Donetsk Dan - Shuala
-Vladivostok Victor - Jaichind
-Kherson Kim - Red Velvet
-Odessa Owen - TimTurner
-Mariupol Mark - Hollywood
-Luhansk Lucy - Cassius

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, I've come up with codenames a la Tokyo Rose for all of our pro-Russia clowns:

-Bakhmut Bob - Woodbury (I think Dead0 already came up with that one)
-Donetsk Dan - Shuala
-Vladivostok Victor - Jaichind
-Kherson Kim - Red Velvet
-Odessa Owen - TimTurner
-Mariupol Mark - Hollywood
-Luhansk Lucy - Cassius

Odessa? Is this because I'm from Texas and Odessa is also a place in Texas?
Also: the fact you still define me as pro-Russia is more of a joke than what remains of the Spetsnats. You sound an awful lot like Republicans in the 2000s!

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

"Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one"

Economist admits that Russia's economy can sustain a long war but now argues that for Russia to win the rise in intensity of the conflict cannot be sustained.  That is very possible but if I had to guess Russia's plans are to win a long low intensity attrition war.

So the goal for the West could be to continue to increase the intensity still further and for as long as possible.

Correct, at least if you go with Economist's analysis.  Russia's plan seems to be drag the war out in a  low intensity conflict and wait for collective West internal politics to reduce their level of support for Ukraine.  The collective West strategy, if that is the case, has to be to up the ante as soon as possible.

As for the fact that Russia will try to drag out the war and reduce its intensity, we could have guessed already at the very beginning of the war, simply by looking at the precedents. In all Putin's wars, the hot phase lasts two years or less, the intensity drops to embers, and there is no end. Seriously, Putin hasn't finished any of the wars he started. Even in Kadyrov's totalitarian Chechnya, guerrilla warfare is still going on.

But now, on the contrary, I am not so sure that this war will develop according to a typical scenario for Putin. Firstly, the Ukrainians can simply kick out the occupiers for several successful counteroffensives. But the most important thing is that this war turned out to be a project of the PRC, and not Putin personally. This means that it is useless to consider the Russian economy separately from the Chinese one. I heard that the Russians already call the yuan their national currency.

[Badger]

Victor Orban later retweeted something including Stoltenburg's comment with the quote "What?"

After every news about Viktor Yanukovych Orban, I ask myself the question "Why?". Why is Hungary still in the EU and NATO? The only explanation I can find is to prevent Orban from attacking neighboring countries in an attempt to build a Russian Hungarian World.

Practically speaking, its not that easy to throw a country out of either.

Plus, to quote lbj, it's better to have your enemies inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in. As horrific as Orban and his political movement are to the future of a democratic hungry, there's better chance for them reforming as part of the EU and NATO than outside. NATO long had non-democratic countries in it like greece, Spain, and yes turkey. Not optimal, but better than the alternative.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1650207056614285312

You love to see it!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1650563057326739457?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Also, I've come up with codenames a la Tokyo Rose for all of our pro-Russia clowns:

-Bakhmut Bob - Woodbury (I think Dead0 already came up with that one)
-Donetsk Dan - Shuala
-Vladivostok Victor - Jaichind
-Kherson Kim - Red Velvet
-Odessa Owen - TimTurner
-Mariupol Mark - Hollywood
-Luhansk Lucy - Cassius

Odessa? Is this because I'm from Texas and Odessa is also a place in Texas?
Also: the fact you still define me as pro-Russia is more of a joke than what remains of the Spetsnats. You sound an awful lot like Republicans in the 2000s!

Anyone who doesn't see that one party in the conflict is clearly better than the other is pro-Russia, because it means you are giving Russia the benefit of the doubt more than Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, I've come up with codenames a la Tokyo Rose for all of our pro-Russia clowns:

-Bakhmut Bob - Woodbury (I think Dead0 already came up with that one)
-Donetsk Dan - Shuala
-Vladivostok Victor - Jaichind
-Kherson Kim - Red Velvet
-Odessa Owen - TimTurner
-Mariupol Mark - Hollywood
-Luhansk Lucy - Cassius

Odessa? Is this because I'm from Texas and Odessa is also a place in Texas?
Also: the fact you still define me as pro-Russia is more of a joke than what remains of the Spetsnats. You sound an awful lot like Republicans in the 2000s!

Anyone who doesn't see that one party in the conflict is clearly better than the other is pro-Russia, because it means you are giving Russia the benefit of the doubt more than Ukraine.

Ok Senator McCarthy. If you want to call one of the most consistent supporters of our intelligence community on this forum and one of the types who talked about Ukraine needing ammunition to remain in the game pro-Russian, that's your call. I'm certainly not comprehensively anti-Russia (they've done so much good for the world, together with us...Iran nuclear deal, ISS, etc), but I'm not pro-Russia in the grand scheme of things. And I refuse to abide by your laughable framing.

As a fervent supporter of global stability, the idea that working with any and all countries as needed if that is a net good for US interests is somehow misguided, is just an impractical  point of view. And that it has a loud contingent on its behalf, name-calling people for not hewing to its senseless push for its idea of "purity", does not make it any more valid as a course of policy. Our foreign policy is decided in Washington, not Kiev.

There's a chance that deep-down, it saddens you that people who think in my vein help run the State Department and thus, the world. It's okay. Sadness is a natural human emotion. I felt it when Haddad lost in 2018 or when my uncle died in 2020.

P.S. I still like you and respect you, but it'd be nice if you stopped with these laughable nonsensicalities.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

"Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one"

Economist admits that Russia's economy can sustain a long war but now argues that for Russia to win the rise in intensity of the conflict cannot be sustained.  That is very possible but if I had to guess Russia's plans are to win a long low intensity attrition war.

So the goal for the West could be to continue to increase the intensity still further and for as long as possible.

Correct, at least if you go with Economist's analysis.  Russia's plan seems to be drag the war out in a  low intensity conflict and wait for collective West internal politics to reduce their level of support for Ukraine.  The collective West strategy, if that is the case, has to be to up the ante as soon as possible.

I don’t think the West has plans for that though. Western Europe is already significantly less hawkish on this than places in the East like Poland, they care more about showing they’re doing something but they do not want to rise costs too much and affect their economy even more in short period of time because there will be a domestic political cost.

Even in US you see this exhaustion from average people with the constant news of billions and billions being continuously sent to Ukraine with no immediate result. Not only it adds perception of Ukraine being another Afghanistan (a waste of time and money for the public), it perfect plays with the Trump “America First” motto where he uses nationalism as a fuel to be concerned about internal investments more than external. And he can also use that narrative of being the “dovish” option who would rather push for peace instead of more never-ending war, which if it translated in the real world in practice would make him a legit worthy contender for the Nobel Peace Prize since even US presidents who stimulated or continued wars won that.

But point is that if Ukraine War keeps going through 2024, it will be interesting how it will be used in the campaign circuit, if it’s something that democrats will try to hide in order to not stimulate the Trump “America First” narrative that connects strongly with average people, not just the patriots. Or if they will risk it and double down on their support for Ukraine as priority over domestic issues and try to energize their base support for this issue as something not negotiable using a moral argument even if it alienates independents.

The longer the war goes, the higher support for it to keep going drops. It’s always like this. If the West really wanted to kick Russia out, the time to go full mode against Russia was during 2022, maybe they can still do it now in 2023. But in 2024 it’s the American elections and onwards it will be too late to justify domestically an intense level of support.

This is why I think the trend from now to the future is for the most Western countries to drop the overly hawkish discourse and join the moderate talks about peace that are stimulated by Lula.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, I've come up with codenames a la Tokyo Rose for all of our pro-Russia clowns:

-Bakhmut Bob - Woodbury (I think Dead0 already came up with that one)
-Donetsk Dan - Shuala
-Vladivostok Victor - Jaichind
-Kherson Kim - Red Velvet
-Odessa Owen - TimTurner
-Mariupol Mark - Hollywood
-Luhansk Lucy - Cassius

Who dis?

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-coming-counteroffensive-hinge/

The article’s speculation is that Ukraine’s strategy is a redux of the Allies’ strategy on June 6, 1944 – get the enemy to think that you are attacking Calais, when the real target is Normandy. The date is when the ground gets hard enough.

Ukraine does not have enough for more than one big push, and it needs that push to be big. Why? Because Franco-German impatience has now metastasized across the pond to DC.

Ukrainian officials and lawmakers who were recently in Washington for Biden’s Summit for Democracy got that distinct impression — of the clock ticking — in their talks with U.S. State Department and National Security Council officials. After the meetings, Ukrainian opposition lawmaker and former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze said she was left anxious about the “continuation of the same level of U.S. support to Ukraine after this financial year” — which, for the U.S. federal budget, is September.

…
Ukraine has heard such sounds of Western fatigue, and background noise about negotiations, before, when there was fear of a stalemate last fall. But it silenced these worries with highly effective counteroffensives around Kharkiv in the north and Kherson in the south.

And Ukraine will need just as much success this time around — likely more.


If Biden really does adopt the your time is up policy, my respect for him will ... end. We're done. The thing is, is that the lack of a big success, if that is the outcome, will be due to a lack of air superiority is my surmise, and the lack of such superiority by this date, 14 months into the war, strikes me as unconscionable - shameful really.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/ee8c2ade-4f94-426f-881b-d6f9621231b8



"Allies resist US plan to ban all G7 exports to Russia"

The proposal was made by the US, according to two officials. It comes amid rising frustration in Washington with the existing system riddled with loopholes that allow Russia to continue to import western technology.
But representatives from Japan and EU countries suggested in a preparatory meeting last week that such a move would not be feasible, according to three people briefed on the discussions.

USA pushing for export ban to Russia.  Japan and EU does not seen keen

[American2020]

Russia has an Iraq War moment in term of popularity wolrdwide.

Counter to some impressions, the U.S. and its allies aren’t the only ones who care about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gallup surveys in 137 countries show Russia’s image has suffered worldwide since it began its war in Ukraine. For the first time in Gallup’s history of tracking ratings of world leaders, the majority of the world disapproves of Russia’s leadership.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/474596/russia-suffers-global-rebuke-invasion.aspx

I feel Russia will pay a very costly price for Putin's vanity.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1650761560166649857?s=20

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1650911475618267164
Politicization of ICC backfiring with South Africa now saying they will quit the international court after the warrant that obliges its members to jail Putin if he visits their territories. Instead of bringing more places to their side, the Western desperation is pushing more places away from their organizations/influence instead, openly stimulating a global divide.

Notice how the current South African president is also more pro-western than previous ones and you get an idea of how broad this feeling is.

The BRICS summit in South Africa later this year apparently cannot be stopped.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1650761560166649857?s=20

This is outrageously false/misinformation.

[Storr]

I'm not sure if this is the Russian propaganda version of a boomer moment or the finest example of:



https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1648896308445315074?s=20

Another Gurulyov boomer take:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1650887646946775040?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1650911475618267164
Politicization of ICC backfiring with South Africa now saying they will quit the international court after the warrant that obliges its members to jail Putin if he visits their territories. Instead of bringing more places to their side, the Western desperation is pushing more places away from their organizations/influence instead, openly stimulating a global divide.

Notice how the current South African president is also more pro-western than previous ones and you get an idea of how broad this feeling is.

The BRICS summit in South Africa later this year apparently cannot be stopped.

So now holding Putin accountable for f**king war crimes falls under your Global South crap?

[Red Velvet]

So now holding Putin accountable for f**king war crimes falls under your Global South crap?

My crap? I am only posting the South African president intentions, regardless if you agree or disagree with them. Read the news, they’re from Financial Times.

[Storr]

The 60 cars Kyiv will receive are recently retired Metrovagonmash (Soviet/Russian manufacturer) Warsaw Metro cars, replaced by new Skoda metro trains:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1650869130663190529?s=20

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1650869136426164224?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1650911475618267164
Politicization of ICC backfiring with South Africa now saying they will quit the international court after the warrant that obliges its members to jail Putin if he visits their territories. Instead of bringing more places to their side, the Western desperation is pushing more places away from their organizations/influence instead, openly stimulating a global divide.

Notice how the current South African president is also more pro-western than previous ones and you get an idea of how broad this feeling is.

The BRICS summit in South Africa later this year apparently cannot be stopped.

From the Financial Times article: "The plan to withdraw does not alter the dilemma that Ramaphosa faces if Putin does attend the summit while under ICC indictment, because of the time it would take to leave the court, analysts have said. ICC rules require a year’s notice."

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1650911475618267164
Politicization of ICC backfiring with South Africa now saying they will quit the international court after the warrant that obliges its members to jail Putin if he visits their territories. Instead of bringing more places to their side, the Western desperation is pushing more places away from their organizations/influence instead, openly stimulating a global divide.

Notice how the current South African president is also more pro-western than previous ones and you get an idea of how broad this feeling is.

The BRICS summit in South Africa later this year apparently cannot be stopped.

So now holding Putin accountable for f**king war crimes falls under your Global South crap?

No doubt. The concepts of "international law" and "human rights" as they're understood today are meaningless in a truly multipolar world like the one that Red Velvet so desperately wants to emerge from all this.