Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

[2952-0-0]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Maybe that shift was due to Ukrainians coming to view Russia as their mortal enemy. If Putin was so concerned about Transnistria, he should have thought of it when he made the decision to invade Ukraine.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Ukraine used to allow Russian troops through because Ukraine used to have a pro-Russian government. Ukraine stopped having a pro-Russian government, and stopped supporting Russia’s control over Transnistria. This is a pretty simple concept.

Ukraine and Russia are not “equally guilty” lmao. The occupying country is obviously much more guilty than the country which once allowed support for the occupier.

[Woody]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Ukraine used to allow Russian troops through because Ukraine used to have a pro-Russian government. Ukraine stopped having a pro-Russian government, and stopped supporting Russia’s control over Transnistria. This is a pretty simple concept.

Ukraine and Russia are not “equally guilty” lmao. The occupying country is obviously much more guilty than the country which once allowed support for the occupier.

That's 100% not true.

Every leader from post-1991 independence from Kravchuk, to even Yushchenko, and to Poroshenko was heavily tilted towards helping Russia there. They continued hosting Transnistrian officials to the country, diplomatic relations with Transnistria, and let Russian battalions freely travel there. They ignored EU's pleas to close the border and most of Transnistria's economy is heavily dependent on Ukrainian businesses. Even Poroshenko who was then Secretary of National Security/Defense was heavily accused of trying to lobby Yushchenko's administration towards a more favorable settlement for Transnistria. Ukrainian nationalist battalions were also heavily involved in the fighting against Moldovans.

They only stopped Russians from crossing their land in the summer of 2015 - and that was because of Crimea and the separatists (only when the Russians started targeting them). Two decades of enabling Russian aggression here.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Ukraine used to allow Russian troops through because Ukraine used to have a pro-Russian government. Ukraine stopped having a pro-Russian government, and stopped supporting Russia’s control over Transnistria. This is a pretty simple concept.

Ukraine and Russia are not “equally guilty” lmao. The occupying country is obviously much more guilty than the country which once allowed support for the occupier.

That this situation has changed is yet another example of how much of a self-inflicted problem Russia's Ukraine policy has been over the past few decades, especially since 2014. If Russia had simply allowed Maidan to happen, the new government would inevitably have become unpopular and been replaced with an Eastern-elected pro-Russian one, as repeatedly happened between independence and 2014, or possibly even the actual invasion in 2022, if one considers Poroshenko losing to Zelensky, the de facto Eastern Canadidate, as a continuation of this trend. Indeed, Ukraine's economic problems and issues with corruption were so severe that every new government would inevitably become unpopular and lose to the other side after one term, which paradoxically was a big part of what prevented a Putin or Lukashenko-type figure from rising to power and creating an authoritarian state around them. But now Russia has shown that it will not accept Ukraine as an independent state, causing many Ukrainians who used to regard it favorably to change their opinion. Of course, removing the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine from the country didn't help either.

Ukraine in its pre-2014 form was never going to join NATO: NATO membership was unpopular in every poll before then, and other NATO members - notably Germany - would have blocked it. Many, if not most, Ukrainians still held favorable views of Russia. EU membership was also very far off, and by the time it might have been feasible, Russia in this alternate reality might have been contemplating membership in the EU itself, as was indeed semi-seriously talked about in the early 2000s, albeit as something very far off.

[Virginiá]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Moldova itself coordinating with Ukraine to deal with the persistent efforts of Russia to destabilize Moldova and prop up breakaway regions like they have in other countries they have invaded is not...violating "Moldova's sovereignty." I would be against Ukraine using military force against Transnistria unless the forces stationed there started attacking Ukraine, or unless Moldova requested their assistance. I do not respect the legitimacy of Russian-origin separatist movements created and propped up for the sole reason of destabilizing countries that Russia will later wish to annex by force or install puppet regimes in.

Also, I don't care what happened before regarding Ukraine and other countries dealings with Transnistria. Lots of mistakes were made over the past 3 decades. That doesn't excuse Russia's imperialist ambitions and their attempts to sew discord in Europe and reconstitute their previous sphere of influence.

You seem to prefer national sovereignty unless Russia is involved, in which case whatever Russia says is what it must be, right?

[jaichind]

Interesting take by Russian milbloggers - Why launch an offensive overall this spring? Let the grind continue, keep setting up defensive fortifications and trenches. Maybe push one part of the front, and continue wearing down the Ukrainian manpower and Western armaments.

This was probably the idea Surovikin had in mind, until the MoD stepped in.

My theory has also been the large Russian offensive will be in the Summer at the earliest.  My idea is that Russia needs to clear the Donbas first before launching its broad offensive.  The issue here is the newly mobilized needs to be trained.  So should they be trained for fighting in urban fortified areas or out in the open?  It seems that given longer-term goals the Russians would want to focus on training their new units in combat in open areas.  If so then it is not wise to deploy these units until the fighting in the very urban Donbas is over. 

I figure the Russians are gambling that without throwing in the newly mobilized forces they can clear Donba.  But the reality is that if that is their plan then with their limited forces it will take months for this to occur.  So I think the path of fighting over the next 4-5 months is Russia slowly clearing out Donbas followed by a more broad offensive by the newly mobilized forces which had a lot of training on fighting in the open.  Of course, a plan does not mean reality.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-steps-up-hostilities-deplete-ukraines-forces-kyiv-2023-02-23/

Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov said Russia had set the goal of capturing all the territory it does not control in the two regions that make up the industrial Donbas area of eastern Ukraine by summer.

It seems this Ukraine general has the same view I have on the likely course of what Russia is planning. Namely Russia will focus on Donbas and try to clear out Donbas the Summer.

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/others/ukraine-fines-kharkiv-mayor-for-using-russian-language-on-social-media-posts/ar-AA17PG00

"Ukraine fines Kharkiv mayor for using Russian language on social media posts"

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1628670203855880192?s=20

[Woody]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Moldova itself coordinating with Ukraine to deal with the persistent efforts of Russia to destabilize Moldova and prop up breakaway regions like they have in other countries they have invaded is not...violating "Moldova's sovereignty." I would be against Ukraine using military force against Transnistria unless the forces stationed there started attacking Ukraine, or unless Moldova requested their assistance. I do not respect the legitimacy of Russian-origin separatist movements created and propped up for the sole reason of destabilizing countries that Russia will later wish to annex by force or install puppet regimes in.

Also, I don't care what happened before regarding Ukraine and other countries dealings with Transnistria. Lots of mistakes were made over the past 3 decades. That doesn't excuse Russia's imperialist ambitions and their attempts to sew discord in Europe and reconstitute their previous sphere of influence.

You seem to prefer national sovereignty unless Russia is involved, in which case whatever Russia says is what it must be, right?

??

..I don't?

Okay, so you don't respect the 'legitimacy of Russian-origin' (Which Ukraine aided) separatist movements and think Russia should severely be punished, but when it comes to Ukrainian imperialism in Moldova it's just "Eh, whatever happened, happened". It's because of Ukrainian assistance that Russia had the ability to make Moldova deal with this puppet entity and imperialism in the first place. So that means that they were complicit, helping Russia do more imperialism and destabilization that you just complained about.

So when and if Moldova requests Ukrainians to step in to take Transnistria, it will be an alliance because of pure convenience, not because of morality. If Crimea and this war didn't happen, Ukraine would have still continued to actively support Transnistria, regardless of the UA President's political-leaning.

[Virginiá]

So when and if Moldova requests Ukrainians to step in to take Transnistria, it will be an alliance because of pure convenience, not because of morality. If Crimea and this war didn't happen, Ukraine would have still continued to actively support Transnistria, regardless of the UA President's political-leaning.

So what? I've already stated I don't care about what happened before. To me, this is about dealing with one of many potential future threats (in the near and long term) to Ukraine and in a broader sense, the idea of pushing corrosive Russian influence out of Europe.

You just keep going on about "but muh Ukraine helping Transnistria years ago." Ukraine made lots of mistakes over the past generation, and plenty of Ukrainians themselves have been pretty forthright about this. I've gotten over it. If you want to keep banging on that drum, feel free, but your incessant whataboutism really isn't accomplishing anything here. Doesn't change anything about the need to deal with Transnistria now. But I'm glad to hear you are very concerned about Moldovan sovereignty and Holding Ukraine Accountable!

[jaichind]

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/crimean-bridge-repaired-and-reopened-six-months-ahead-of-schedule-26-01-2023/

"Crimean Bridge repaired and reopened six months ahead of schedule"

I think as of today all 4 car lanes have resumed traffic which restores the state before the explosion.

I think that would be a good strategy by Ukraine.  Ukraine should do to Russia what Russia is doing to Ukraine in terms of the energy infrastructure.    Namely hit it, let the other side spend a lot of energy to repair it and then hit it again to maximize the total cost on the other side.  I think it is a smart move by Russia to do that to the Ukraine energy infrastructure and I think it would be smart for Ukraine to do do the same to Russia road/communications infrastructure. 

[Storr]

The sunk cost fallacy in action:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1628747549933723648?s=20

The article Oliver Carroll is referencing:

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1628649421142478848?s=20

[Woody]

So when and if Moldova requests Ukrainians to step in to take Transnistria, it will be an alliance because of pure convenience, not because of morality. If Crimea and this war didn't happen, Ukraine would have still continued to actively support Transnistria, regardless of the UA President's political-leaning.

"but muh Ukraine helping Transnistria years ago." Ukraine made lots of mistakes over the past generation, and plenty of Ukrainians themselves have been pretty forthright about this.

Yeah, sure.

Anyways, there is no threat from Transnistria, the grouping of forces there consisted of 2-3 battalions. And the contracts of those soldiers recently expired, with most of those refusing to renew it. The arsenal in Cobasna is also old, unstable and unreliable which is the reason Moldova wanted Russians to evacuate it, so it wouldn't help the Ukrainian effort one bit.

It's a made up issue by Sandu because of the recent domestic and political fallings her party is experiencing.

Moldova has the right to ask Ukraine to assist them, but that doesn't mean they are innocent from their past dealings. Just because you don't care, doesn't erase numerous wealth and potential Moldova lost all those years

[Virginiá]

Moldova has the right to ask Ukraine to assist them, but that doesn't mean they are innocent from their past dealings. Just because you don't care, doesn't erase numerous wealth and potential Moldova lost all those years

Doesn't mean I don't care about the effect it had or that it happened, it just means that the previous Ukrainian/Moldovan relationship with regards to Transnistria is immaterial to concerns now and in the future. Trying to say here that you repeatedly pointing this past history out does not refute (in my eyes) the need to deal with all Russian forces in the region now.

Not really much else to say here. You have taken lead on making sure everyone knows Transnistria didn't exist without support in a vacuum for all those years, So, uh, again, good to know.

[Woody]

Moldova has the right to ask Ukraine to assist them, but that doesn't mean they are innocent from their past dealings. Just because you don't care, doesn't erase numerous wealth and potential Moldova lost all those years

Trying to say here that you repeatedly pointing this past history out does not refute (in my eyes) the need to deal with all Russian forces in the region now.

There is almost no Russian forces there lol. It would fall within hours.

[jaichind]

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1733982/one-year-on-huge-majority-of-ukrainians-confident-of-victory

"One year on, a huge majority of Ukrainians confident of victory"

Some 95 percent of Ukrainians are confident of their country’s victory against invading Russian forces

Seventeen percent of respondents said they had lost a loved one in the war, nearly doubling from 9 percent six months ago.

At least one-third of the working population lost their jobs, the survey said.

[Storr]

"...the Russian command shows a high tolerance for losses and continues to push its troops forward, prepared or not. After this current offensive ends, it may be obvious to Russian leaders that the military cannot overcome its lack of trained crews, noncommissioned officers, junior officers, logisticians and other specialists who were casualties of the war’s early days. The transmission in the Russian Army’s engine has broken. Flooring the gas pedal with barely trained men and old tanks cannot force a shift into a higher gear."

"Yet for now, Mr. Putin shows no signs of abandoning this war. He seems willing to sacrifice the lives of Russian men and mortgage Russia’s future to achieve what he can. For Ukraine, in need of urgent and sustained support, it is a deadly commitment."

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1628811845363462144?s=20

[GALeftist]

I really fail to see why Transnistria looks like it might get roped into this mess. I mean, none of this is logical, but still. Transnistria is a landlocked nation with no airports, it is essentially out of luck when it comes to being supplied by Russia; the forces stationed there could probably effectively combat the Armed Forces of Moldova, which are woefully unprepared for a serious conflict, but if Ukraine gets involved (and it will) there just will be zero contest. Bad from the Russian perspective. It also seems bad from the Ukrainian perspective, since it will open another front, however briefly. I guess it might be good from the Moldovan perspective if you squint, but even if everything goes perfectly, they'd still be getting bailed out by a larger neighbor, which seems suboptimal.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I really fail to see why Transnistria looks like it might get roped into this mess. I mean, none of this is logical, but still. Transnistria is a landlocked nation with no airports, it is essentially out of luck when it comes to being supplied by Russia; the forces stationed there could probably effectively combat the Armed Forces of Moldova, which are woefully unprepared for a serious conflict, but if Ukraine gets involved (and it will) there just will be zero contest. Bad from the Russian perspective. It also seems bad from the Ukrainian perspective, since it will open another front, however briefly. I guess it might be good from the Moldovan perspective if you squint, but even if everything goes perfectly, they'd still be getting bailed out by a larger neighbor, which seems suboptimal.

This issue of Transnistria is directly linked with the fact that there was/is a Russian scam in place to overthrow the Moldova government as was reported 3 weeks ago. So Moldova and Ukraine probably feel if they can go in quick and clear this place out then it probably secures the Moldova government

[Woody]

I really fail to see why Transnistria looks like it might get roped into this mess. I mean, none of this is logical, but still. Transnistria is a landlocked nation with no airports, it is essentially out of luck when it comes to being supplied by Russia; the forces stationed there could probably effectively combat the Armed Forces of Moldova, which are woefully unprepared for a serious conflict, but if Ukraine gets involved (and it will) there just will be zero contest. Bad from the Russian perspective. It also seems bad from the Ukrainian perspective, since it will open another front, however briefly. I guess it might be good from the Moldovan perspective if you squint, but even if everything goes perfectly, they'd still be getting bailed out by a larger neighbor, which seems suboptimal.

This issue of Transnistria is directly linked with the fact that there was/is a Russian scam in place to overthrow the Moldova government as was reported 3 weeks ago. So Moldova and Ukraine probably feel if they can go in quick and clear this place out then it probably secures the Moldova government

[Storr]

When it comes to Transnistria, I personally doubt anything will happen. Everything that's been released all seems like information messaging, probably from intelligence services.

[Woody]

Berkhivka has fallen. Not a surprise as Wagner held the hills overlooking the village. Most of the fighting is now going on in Yahidne, and to a lesser extent Dubovo-Vasylivka (AFU is experiencing the same issue as they did in Berkhivka, as the Wagner highground extends here too, so it will probably fall this week).

In relation; I heard the last supply road to Bakhmut, through Khromove, was reportedly hit by a few mortar-shells as some medics and a few cars belonging to the AFU were passing through. So Wagner might soon in the next few days establish proper fire-control on the road as they move more equipment, but mostly mortars and such, since Berkhivka has fallen, and couple of assault infantry moving through the small dirt roads/treeline just north of the supply road.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1628842732633423872

[Hindsight was 2020]

I really fail to see why Transnistria looks like it might get roped into this mess. I mean, none of this is logical, but still. Transnistria is a landlocked nation with no airports, it is essentially out of luck when it comes to being supplied by Russia; the forces stationed there could probably effectively combat the Armed Forces of Moldova, which are woefully unprepared for a serious conflict, but if Ukraine gets involved (and it will) there just will be zero contest. Bad from the Russian perspective. It also seems bad from the Ukrainian perspective, since it will open another front, however briefly. I guess it might be good from the Moldovan perspective if you squint, but even if everything goes perfectly, they'd still be getting bailed out by a larger neighbor, which seems suboptimal.

This issue of Transnistria is directly linked with the fact that there was/is a Russian scam in place to overthrow the Moldova government as was reported 3 weeks ago. So Moldova and Ukraine probably feel if they can go in quick and clear this place out then it probably secures the Moldova government

If you want to deny what the Moldova and Ukraine‘s government have been reporting that’s fine (and in character) but to act like this wasn’t reported is ridiculous

[Hindsight was 2020]

In other news a article today in the economist is confirming the failed attacks out of Kreminna and the ones on Vuhledar are in fact the hyped Russian offensive
https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1628839391312347136
https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1628840839165222916