Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Хahar 🤔]

In Moscow, they are also gearing up for the 1 year anniversary of the war.

“23rd February. For Victory, For Our People, For Truth”

Something odd here that I've noticed before in official Russian graphics is "ZА" being used in place of "ЗА". I am unsure if "Z" is an accepted typographical variant of "З" (if so, I've never seen it), but I assume that this is about branding, and so it's interesting to see that the "Z" branding is still in use months after I forgot about it.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

On Russian state TV:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1627687088819691521?s=20

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1627689535197806592?s=20

Its a beautiful thing!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1627770313739063323?s=20

[Woody]

Putin's speech is going to broadcast on Russian TV, 12:00 PM Moscow time (4 AM EST) expect him to be a little late, like he always is.

I don't know what to expect.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/f41949bb-0812-4b43-8ced-e10ca24d2e91

"Western pleas over Ukraine fail to sway African and South American leaders"

Western officials said bilateral meetings on the conference sidelines revealed a much greater preoccupation with issues such as inflation, debt, higher energy prices and food security than with the war in Ukraine.

The article points out that the upcoming PRC peace proposal is most likely a move for the PRC to gain favor with the Global South and not anything that the collective West would accept.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ft.com/content/f41949bb-0812-4b43-8ced-e10ca24d2e91

"Western pleas over Ukraine fail to sway African and South American leaders"

Western officials said bilateral meetings on the conference sidelines revealed a much greater preoccupation with issues such as inflation, debt, higher energy prices and food security than with the war in Ukraine.

The article points out that the upcoming PRC peace proposal is most likely a move for the PRC to gain favor with the Global South and not anything that the collective West would accept.

PRC is the biggest winner from this war, in soft power terms at least. They are playing their cards well here.

[Woody]

Little over 3 kilometers from the last supply road if true. As long as the AFU continues to stay the future withdrawal becomes more and more dangerous.

I am a little baffled that they still are staying there. I expected that if the Russians got that far they would have been long gone (ala Lysychansk). Very unfortunate timing that this coincides with Feb. 24. If not for that, this city would have been abandoned weeks ago.

I don't think there is going to be an encirclement, but serious unnecessary degradation.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1627775068448215042

[Storr]

Putin's speech is going to broadcast on Russian TV, 12:00 PM Moscow time (4 AM EST) expect him to be a little late, like he always is.

I don't know what to expect.

What I expect:
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1627724875212128275?s=20

[Woody]

Russians are bringing a lot of equipment to the north of the city (Stupky district) and Paraskoviivka. They see a weakpoint, and at this point they're throwing all in for getting this city fast.

This week is going to be very decisive and impactful course of the war.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1627791951775817732
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627791681419345932

[TheReckoning]

Russians are bringing a lot of equipment to the north of the city (Stupky district) and Paraskoviivka. They see a weakpoint, and at this point they're throwing all in for getting this city fast.

This week is going to be very decisive and impactful course of the war.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1627791951775817732
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627791681419345932

That’s been said about pretty much every week, but the longer this drags out, the more and more perpetual this war seems.

[Woody]

The world would be better place if the Russian state was wiped off the face of the Earth. Literally an army of rabid dogs.

- Adolf Hitler, 1941

[jaichind]

On Russian state TV:

 

But I would think these images play to the Russian narrative domestically.  The "loyal opposition" in Russia should be asking "Why are we fighting a war against our Slavic brothers?"  The Putin response would be "because they have been brainwashed and are under the control of USA and NATO who are out to destroy us".  The images of Biden in Kive I would think play to the Russia narrative domestically to consolidate support for the war.

[2952-0-0]

PRC is the biggest winner from this war, in soft power terms at least. They are playing their cards well here.

Tell that to the managers of their tech companies who are seeing wave after wave of western sanctions, and the managers of their export companies who have seen a wave of cancellation of orders in the past few months.

But I would think these images play to the Russian narrative domestically.  The "loyal opposition" in Russia should be asking "Why are we fighting a war against our Slavic brothers?"  The Putin response would be "because they have been brainwashed and are under the control of USA and NATO who are out to destroy us".  The images of Biden in Kive I would think play to the Russia narrative domestically to consolidate support for the war.

TIL that pouring salt on the wound of Putin's failure to achieve his goal to take Kyiv in three days can be spun as a victory. I imagine when Allied troops were closing in on Berlin in 1945, Goebbels was able to milk it for maximum propaganda value!

[oldtimer]

The world would be better place if the Russian state was wiped off the face of the Earth. Literally an army of rabid dogs.

- Adolf Hitler, 1941

Here read it, it's a long depressing read and still a true depiction of russia:

La Russie en 1839 (the english translation)
https://archive.org/details/russiatranslated1934cust/page/n5/mode/2up?view=theater

The summary is basically that russia in 1839 is a land of tyrrany, cruelty, corruption and despair, whose expansionism is basically an effort by the population to escape their miserable country and acquire a better one.

And also that book analyses why it is what it is.

[oldtimer]

In Moscow, they are also gearing up for the 1 year anniversary of the war.

“23rd February. For Victory, For Our People, For Truth”

That picture encapsulates why russia is losing the war.
They spend more time and money on propaganda than in military production.

You can't win a great war with giant flat screen TV's.

[oldtimer]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/7439022/kyiv-security-chief-vows-ukraine-tanks-moscow/

"FIGHTING TALK Ukraine vows to end war with Russia by parking its tanks in Moscow’s Red Square"

Pretty ambitious talk.  I do admire his spunk in wanting to take the war to the enemy even if for now not realistic.

They can do it if they promise to the russian people civil rights by a pro-western Kiev government that annexes russia.

Remember the people of russia never fight for the Tsar, and I expect them to defect and greet them as liberators provided they behave as actual liberators rather than just another dictatorship.

[2952-0-0]

In Moscow, they are also gearing up for the 1 year anniversary of the war.

“23rd February. For Victory, For Our People, For Truth”

That picture encapsulates why russia is losing the war.
They spend more time and money on propaganda than in military production.

You can't win a great war with giant flat screen TV's.

Actually, the Kremlin has allocated more on its budget for this year towards internal security, than on the military. Everything else is getting cutbacks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/surge-russias-defence-security-spending-means-cuts-schools-hospitals-2023-2022-11-22/

This is especially telling:

Funding will be cut for state programmes on education, but increased by 513% from this year for "patriotic training" in schools to reflect Russia's view of current and historic events, according to Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute.

[oldtimer]

In Moscow, they are also gearing up for the 1 year anniversary of the war.

“23rd February. For Victory, For Our People, For Truth”

That picture encapsulates why russia is losing the war.
They spend more time and money on propaganda than in military production.

You can't win a great war with giant flat screen TV's.

Actually, the Kremlin has allocated more on its budget for this year towards internal security, than on the military. Everything else is getting cutbacks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/surge-russias-defence-security-spending-means-cuts-schools-hospitals-2023-2022-11-22/

This is especially telling:

Funding will be cut for state programmes on education, but increased by 513% from this year for "patriotic training" in schools to reflect Russia's view of current and historic events, according to Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute.

That is low, America spent 1/3rd of it's gdp on defence in WW2.
155$ billion is only half what the USSR spent annually in the 1980's.

[HillGoose]

The world would be better place if the Russian state was wiped off the face of the Earth. Literally an army of rabid dogs.

- Adolf Hitler, 1941

ok Tokyo Rose

[2952-0-0]

That is low, America spent 1/3rd of it's gdp on defence in WW2.
155$ billion is only half what the USSR spent annually in the 1980's.

I'm making a correction: Russia's budget for the military (4.98 trillion Rubles) is still greater than the budget for internal security (4.42 trillion). But internal security received a far greater increase in funding, and everything else except for patriotic propaganda in schools is facing cutbacks, which reveals how the Kremlin is prioritizing its resources.

That's the greatest indictment against Putin's claim that he was forced to wage the special military operation to save the country. If he truly believed that, he would have had no problem persuading the people - from the billionaire oligarchs to the pensioner in Chelyabinsk - to make a great sacrifice for the Motherland, enabling him to mobilize the entire nation for the war effort, and to do so for at least a year before starting the war. The fact that he didn't bother to do so, and only started mobilizing the nation after a series of disasters on the battlefield, indicates that he views this war through the lens of maintaining his power in the Kremlin, not out of any duty to the Russian nation.

[Frodo]

Now why would Lukashenko feel the need to do this? He has thousands of Russian troops occupying his country as well as his own standing army already.  Is he anticipating a post-war invasion by Ukraine and/or NATO? 

Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force

[2952-0-0]

Now why would Lukashenko feel the need to do this? He has thousands of Russian troops occupying his country as well as his own standing army already.  Is he anticipating a post-war invasion by Ukraine and/or NATO? 

Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force

An invasion by Ukraine or NATO isn't happening. You can't convince soldiers in a democracy to die for someone else's freedom.

A third theory, by this armchair pundit: he knows that the only reason he wasn't overthrown after stealing the 2020 election was because Putin rushed in to prop up him. If Putin loses, he will need to find another armed force to maintain his rule, and he can't rely on the military.

[Frodo]

Now why would Lukashenko feel the need to do this? He has thousands of Russian troops occupying his country as well as his own standing army already.  Is he anticipating a post-war invasion by Ukraine and/or NATO?  

Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force

An invasion by Ukraine or NATO isn't happening. You can't convince soldiers in a democracy to die for someone else's freedom.

A third theory, by this armchair pundit: he knows that the only reason he wasn't overthrown after stealing the 2020 election was because Putin rushed in to prop up him. If Putin loses, he will need to find another armed force to maintain his rule, and he can't rely on the military.

What reason does he have to think these paramilitaries will be more loyal to him?  Unless this is the Belarussian equivalent of the Nazi 'werewolves' towards the end of the Second World War in Europe.  

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now why would Lukashenko feel the need to do this? He has thousands of Russian troops occupying his country as well as his own standing army already.  Is he anticipating a post-war invasion by Ukraine and/or NATO? 

Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force

Putin might be really twisting his army to join in the war and support a Kyiv offensive and the current army would be no help.

[NOVA Green]

Now why would Lukashenko feel the need to do this? He has thousands of Russian troops occupying his country as well as his own standing army already.  Is he anticipating a post-war invasion by Ukraine and/or NATO? 

Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force

This is pretty much political street theater.

Lukashenko got summoned to Moscow to speak with the Czar just the other day and had to give a few concessions to the "Don" in exchange for continuation of cheap energy.

Russia most likely funding this force to give Mr. Belarus some domestic repression capability in case things get hairy, while also providing employment in a country which is facing major political, economic, and social challenges.

Nothing to see here folks... move along.