Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Berkhivka will fall soon. Wagner occupies the hills to the north of the town, and it's small road to the city was cut overnight.

The left bank of Bakhmut is now rapidly deteriorating for the Ukrainian Army. Wagner/RuAF are taking several blocks and micro-districts. Unsure if AFU might finally have decided to start withdrawal to the west of Bakhmutivka river & from East Bakhmut, or just that the Russians are genuinely pushing in.

Clock is ticking as everyday the city might come under encirclement and the 1 year anniversary is coming.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627405291288494080?cxt=HHwWgIC8za6f2pUtA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1627311415303233536?cxt=HHwWgICzgYjHr5UtA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1627409162731651073?cxt=HHwWgoCwjduA3JUtA...

[Woody]

The lines south of Bakhmut and Ivanivkse are stable. The real problem is to the north.

After Soledar fell the AFU had a hard time containing the Russians from crossing the M-03 Sloviansk highway.

[jaichind]

https://www.corriere.it/esteri/23_febbraio_19/zelensky-intervista-italia-meloni-ucraina-48025496-b080-11ed-bbef-91b6ba0d81d3.shtml

First signs from Zelensky that Bakhmut might not be held at all costs in an interview with Italian media

"It is important for us to defend it, but not at any price and for everyone to die. We will fight until it is reasonable,"

[Torie]

This is ominous.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world/europe/us-china-weapons-russia-ukraine.html

U.S. Warnings to China on Arms Aid for Russia’s War Portend Global Rift

“Mr. Blinken confronted China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, when the two met on Saturday night on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference,” … and “warned him” that would have “serious consequences” to the US-China relationship. What does that mean in practice? Well, after noting that the US does not have much in the way of cards to play here, the NYT article moved on to more trivial pursuits. So perhaps not much, unless it’s time for another trade war.

China is not Russia. While relations with China go down the drain, and Xi flexes his muscles, there remains a huge and interdependent trading relationship. How is that going to work out?  I have not read much on that issue - China and NATO fighting a proxy war in Ukraine while doing trillions of dollars of business together. What lethal stuff can China give to Russia? Details matter. Where is the damn press when you need it? Where are the scholarly articles? Who is going to ask the tough questions of the right people (that means Blinken and Austin, not Biden or the most unimpressive joint chiefs guy)?

Pathetic. Perhaps it’s time to dial back one’s expectations as to their Western standard of living going forward. I mean it.

[jaichind]

Everyone knew this last year. WTF were they doing all this time? I can't even count how many times I've seen an EU/American official talk about shortages and long production times and how this and that needs to be done, and then those governments proceed to do absolutely nothing. Either these people just don't care as much as they say or the amount of bureaucracy in the west is so gargantuan and so calcified that we are just hopeless.

I think this has to do with aligning spending with military doctrine.  To produce ammunition at a rate to match Russia would require long-term investment in production capacity.   Arms manufacturers need to make a profit and would need to lock in spending on ammunition on that scale for a long period to justify the capital investment needed to expand capacity.  This sort of decision calls into question the USA military doctrine and I can for sure see the Navy pushing back on any doctrinal shift toward spending away from spending needed to deal with a rising PLA in the Pacific.

GOP senator Hawley gave a speech recently that pretty much argued that limited USA resources should be shifted toward dealing with PRC and de-escalation against Russia would make sense.   It was always a difficult move for the USA to try to take on two Great Powers at once and in the end, it will make the make choices in a world of limited resources and competing domestic and foreign spending priorities.

[Hollywood]

The lines south of Bakhmut and Ivanivkse are stable. The real problem is to the north.

After Soledar fell the AFU had a hard time containing the Russians from crossing the M-03 Sloviansk highway.

If they get to the ridge across from from the Russian artillery on the high ground to the N/NE of Berkhivka and Yahidne, they can stabilize the the line west of Bakhmut, and counter-attack Russian forces from the West.  This ridge extents all the way down to Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, which is why the line is more stable outside of Bakhmut.  The Ridge extends north across the M-O3, and Wagner can't extend their until they capture Bakhmut.  

https://twitter.com/BattleHardErika/status/1627241798954528768

[jaichind]

The real battle for Donbas will be the fight for the high ground between Bakhmut and Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka which is the battle yet to come.

[lfromnj]

Everyone knew this last year. WTF were they doing all this time? I can't even count how many times I've seen an EU/American official talk about shortages and long production times and how this and that needs to be done, and then those governments proceed to do absolutely nothing. Either these people just don't care as much as they say or the amount of bureaucracy in the west is so gargantuan and so calcified that we are just hopeless.

I think this has to do with aligning spending with military doctrine.  To produce ammunition at a rate to match Russia would require long-term investment in production capacity.   Arms manufacturers need to make a profit and would need to lock in spending on ammunition on that scale for a long period to justify the capital investment needed to expand capacity.  This sort of decision calls into question the USA military doctrine and I can for sure see the Navy pushing back on any doctrinal shift toward spending away from spending needed to deal with a rising PLA in the Pacific.

GOP senator Hawley gave a speech recently that pretty much argued that limited USA resources should be shifted toward dealing with PRC and de-escalation against Russia would make sense.   It was always a difficult move for the USA to try to take on two Great Powers at once and in the end, it will make the make choices in a world of limited resources and competing domestic and foreign spending priorities.

This would imply that Russia is a Great Power.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1627436320912994310

[Hollywood]

Everyone knew this last year. WTF were they doing all this time? I can't even count how many times I've seen an EU/American official talk about shortages and long production times and how this and that needs to be done, and then those governments proceed to do absolutely nothing. Either these people just don't care as much as they say or the amount of bureaucracy in the west is so gargantuan and so calcified that we are just hopeless.

I think this has to do with aligning spending with military doctrine.  To produce ammunition at a rate to match Russia would require long-term investment in production capacity.   Arms manufacturers need to make a profit and would need to lock in spending on ammunition on that scale for a long period to justify the capital investment needed to expand capacity.  This sort of decision calls into question the USA military doctrine and I can for sure see the Navy pushing back on any doctrinal shift toward spending away from spending needed to deal with a rising PLA in the Pacific.

GOP senator Hawley gave a speech recently that pretty much argued that limited USA resources should be shifted toward dealing with PRC and de-escalation against Russia would make sense.   It was always a difficult move for the USA to try to take on two Great Powers at once and in the end, it will make the make choices in a world of limited resources and competing domestic and foreign spending priorities.

This would imply that Russia is a Great Power.

Yes.  They are capable of exerting their influence on a global scale.  If the US didn't exist, they would be they'd be the most influential nation in Europe, and we saw the potential of that power when they were supplying energy through the NordStream Pipeline.   They also wield power in South American, African, and ME countries through weapons sales and military cooperation.  

However, China is a rising Great Power that is building their military capabilities to wield influence over its neighbors, and project their desires across the globe through more than just trade.  They lack the technological ingenuity of the US, Israel, SK, and Japan.  They spent the 2010s hacking the US Intelligence and Military looking to steal military technologies and strategies.  They specifically went after the US Navy to obtain top secret US strategies in the Pacific in response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Korea or SE Asia. 

[2952-0-0]

“Mr. Blinken confronted China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, when the two met on Saturday night on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference,” … and “warned him” that would have “serious consequences” to the US-China relationship. What does that mean in practice? Well, after noting that the US does not have much in the way of cards to play here, the NYT article moved on to more trivial pursuits. So perhaps not much, unless it’s time for another trade war.

China is not Russia. While relations with China go down the drain, and Xi flexes his muscles, there remains a huge and interdependent trading relationship. How is that going to work out?  I have not read much on that issue - China and NATO fighting a proxy war in Ukraine while doing trillions of dollars of business together. What lethal stuff can China give to Russia? Details matter. Where is the damn press when you need it? Where are the scholarly articles? Who is going to ask the tough questions of the right people (that means Blinken and Austin, not Biden or the most unimpressive joint chiefs guy)?

Pathetic. Perhaps it’s time to dial back one’s expectations as to their standard of living going forward. I mean it.

If that were to happen, the US and the EU would have a perfect excuse to enact sanctions against China's military industrial complex, and any of its suppliers (i.e. vast numbers of companies that might also export to foreign markets). Xi had previously made it a national priority to replace imported technologies with homegrown alternatives, and there was some progress made. But, much of the allocated funding ended up in the pockets of various officials. Earlier this year, he ordered a "pause" on new semiconductor investments, just as the US has just enacted the Chips Act, and the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all ramping up investment plans. That was a major setback, but didn't get nearly as much attention as it deserved. Simply put, China's industrial base is critically dependent on irreplaceable western technologies, and lacks the ability to change that fact despite its best efforts. The only vulnerability the other way was China's near-monopoly on rare earth metals, but alternatives are gradually coming on stream. In other words, there's nothing that the world needs that is only available from China.

Private companies are already voting with their feet, and it seems like every week, another company announces plans to move production away from China to friendlier shores. A ramp up of geopolitical tensions will only hasten this process even more. The trade statistics indicate that China's exports are falling. Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia are all reporting a boom in exports. There's definitely an understanding from the technocratic level about the danger this poses to China's domestic situation, but Xi himself can't stop causing more trouble. He *can* make a U-turn when he's convinced that his current path is creating unnecessary risk for himself (see how he instantly u-turned on the COVID lockdowns), so we'll have to see if he does so here.

Anyway, if it really got to the point where China is sending vast quantities of low-tech artillery or other ammo to Russia, at that point, there will be calls for the western powers to send Flying Tiger-style volunteers, at least as a stop-gap measure until Ukraine's own western fighter jets are ready for action.

As for your final point about Chinese living standards, I don't think Xi cares if his actions cause living standards among the Chinese people to stagnate or even decline. His own propaganda machine has been building a narrative about how living standards can be sacrificed for the Party's benefit. Falling living standards can also be used as a way to strengthen his domestic power, as has been the case in Cuba, Iran, Russia, and other countries. But, what Xi genuinely is worried about, is mass unemployment. He can ill afford to do anything which would cause yet more job losses. But, if he was really pressed, he could replace $500/month trinket-making jobs, with $300/month ditch-digging jobs.

[Torie]

“Mr. Blinken confronted China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, when the two met on Saturday night on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference,” … and “warned him” that would have “serious consequences” to the US-China relationship. What does that mean in practice? Well, after noting that the US does not have much in the way of cards to play here, the NYT article moved on to more trivial pursuits. So perhaps not much, unless it’s time for another trade war.

China is not Russia. While relations with China go down the drain, and Xi flexes his muscles, there remains a huge and interdependent trading relationship. How is that going to work out?  I have not read much on that issue - China and NATO fighting a proxy war in Ukraine while doing trillions of dollars of business together. What lethal stuff can China give to Russia? Details matter. Where is the damn press when you need it? Where are the scholarly articles? Who is going to ask the tough questions of the right people (that means Blinken and Austin, not Biden or the most unimpressive joint chiefs guy)?

Pathetic. Perhaps it’s time to dial back one’s expectations as to their standard of living going forward. I mean it.

If that were to happen, the US and the EU would have a perfect excuse to enact sanctions against China's military industrial complex, and any of its suppliers (i.e. vast numbers of companies that might also export to foreign markets). Xi had previously made it a national priority to replace imported technologies with homegrown alternatives, and there was some progress made. But, much of the allocated funding ended up in the pockets of various officials. Earlier this year, he ordered a "pause" on new semiconductor investments, just as the US has just enacted the Chips Act, and the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all ramping up investment plans. That was a major setback, but didn't get nearly as much attention as it deserved. Simply put, China's industrial base is critically dependent on irreplaceable western technologies, and lacks the ability to change that fact despite its best efforts. The only vulnerability the other way was China's near-monopoly on rare earth metals, but alternatives are gradually coming on stream. In other words, there's nothing that the world needs that is only available from China.

Private companies are already voting with their feet, and it seems like every week, another company announces plans to move production away from China to friendlier shores. A ramp up of geopolitical tensions will only hasten this process even more. The trade statistics indicate that China's exports are falling. Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia are all reporting a boom in exports. There's definitely an understanding from the technocratic level about the danger this poses to China's domestic situation, but Xi himself can't stop causing more trouble. He *can* make a U-turn when he's convinced that his current path is creating unnecessary risk for himself (see how he instantly u-turned on the COVID lockdowns), so we'll have to see if he does so here.

Anyway, if it really got to the point where China is sending vast quantities of low-tech artillery or other ammo to Russia, at that point, there will be calls for the western powers to send Flying Tiger-style volunteers, at least as a stop-gap measure until Ukraine's own western fighter jets are ready for action.

As for your final point about Chinese living standards, I don't think Xi cares if his actions cause living standards among the Chinese people to stagnate or even decline. His own propaganda machine has been building a narrative about how living standards can be sacrificed for the Party's benefit. Falling living standards can also be used as a way to strengthen his domestic power, as has been the case in Cuba, Iran, Russia, and other countries. But, what Xi genuinely is worried about, is mass unemployment. He can ill afford to do anything which would cause yet more job losses. But, if he was really pressed, he could replace $500/month trinket-making jobs, with $300/month ditch-digging jobs.

I mean the standard of living in the West, if large scale trade with China is greatly reduced because of its foreign policy and ambitions, and becoming basically a member in good standing of the axis of evil to over simplify it. I was not as clear as I should have been. I have no illusions about how much of a factor the standard of living of his own people weighs on Xi's mind. It is probably about as much a factor as it is in Putin's mind vis a vis Russians.

I assume that large scale trade with China means cheaper goods for consumers in the West. I guess it is an empirical question as to whether China could successfully be switched out for other East Asian nations, or even that other somewhat problematical nation these days, India.
It would be really bad news if India joined the axis of evil, but I do have trouble getting my mind around India and China being members of the same bad boy club. India's emerging autocratic tendencies are however concerning, beyond its opportunistic bottom feeding of Russian oil when the chips are down, which they are at present.

That is the other thing about Western standards of living, if it needs to go green at an accelerated rate for geopolitical reasons.

[2952-0-0]

I mean the standard of living in the West, if large scale trade with China is greatly reduced because of its foreign policy and ambitions, and becoming basically a member in good standing of the axis of evil to over simplify it. I was not as clear as I should have been. I have no illusions about how much of a factor the standard of living of his own people weighs on Xi's mind. It is probably about as much a factor as it is in Putin's mind vis a vis Russians.

I assume that large scale trade with China means cheaper goods for consumers in the West. I guess it is an empirical question as to whether China could successfully be switched out for other East Asian nations, or even that other somewhat problematical nation these days, India.
It would be really bad news if India joined the axis of evil, but I do have trouble getting my mind around India and China being members of the same bad boy club. India's emerging autocratic tendencies are however concerning, beyond its opportunistic bottom feeding of Russian oil when the chips are down, which they are at present.

That is the other thing about Western standards of living, if it needs to go green at an accelerated rate for geopolitical reasons.

We'll see how much this shift in supply chains away from China contributes to inflation. But, the trend is happening now, regardless of official government edicts. Interestingly, China is alone in being the only major economy where inflation is too low. It's also notable that, while China's exports are down, its trade surplus is at a record level, thanks to even worse import numbers. That indicates that China's domestic consumption sector is suffering badly.

As for India, its democracy suffered far worse when Indira Gandhi declared her emergency, so there are plenty of feedback mechanisms to hold its leaders accountable. There's nothing to fear about its opportunistic buying of discounted Russian oil - it's being sold at a loss, anyway. It's doubtful that it could be anywhere near as efficient as China in becoming the world's factory for cheap trinkets, anyway.

You're right that Greenpeace should give Putin an award for accelerating the shift to clean energy.

[Virginiá]

I think this has to do with aligning spending with military doctrine.  To produce ammunition at a rate to match Russia would require long-term investment in production capacity.   Arms manufacturers need to make a profit and would need to lock in spending on ammunition on that scale for a long period to justify the capital investment needed to expand capacity.  This sort of decision calls into question the USA military doctrine and I can for sure see the Navy pushing back on any doctrinal shift toward spending away from spending needed to deal with a rising PLA in the Pacific.

GOP senator Hawley gave a speech recently that pretty much argued that limited USA resources should be shifted toward dealing with PRC and de-escalation against Russia would make sense.   It was always a difficult move for the USA to try to take on two Great Powers at once and in the end, it will make the make choices in a world of limited resources and competing domestic and foreign spending priorities.

At the same time, the US ended up making many of the same investments in scaling up production anyway, except much later than they needed to for Ukraine's sake, and as such will have ramifications of its own. This is my point. In some ways, the administration is not doing that great of a job planning for the future of this conflict. The US is simultaneously making itself responsible for keeping Ukraine supplied while also neglecting to or dragging their feet on doing what it needs to do to keep those supplies going over the long-run.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/19/ukraine-war-over-unless-eu-boosts-military-support-says-top-diplomat

"Ukraine war ‘over’ unless EU boosts military support, says top diplomat"

They're essentially admitting that Kremlin is pumping out weapons and ammunition, and Ukraine will not be able to compete unless EU countries can combine forces to match Russia's Wartime Production.  Basically, the point I and others have made countless times.  But I suppose the EU Members are merely brainwashed Putin Puppets that are spreading Russian propaganda.  

Also, US Officials believe China may start providing lethal weapons to Russia, in addition to non-lethal military supplies that the US believes are already supplying.  
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-considering-providing-lethal-support-aid-russia-invasion-ukraine-antony-blinken-says/

Then it sounds like it's time for NATO to ramp up production to wartime levels as well, bcuz if the russkis win they will not stop at Ukraine. This is the chance to stop them now!

Russia is a poor petro state with a economy the same size as Italy, it would be like Italy trying to take over the world. Canada with a population of only 38 million has a bigger economy then Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1627515748112384001
Disgusting

[2952-0-0]

Russia is a poor petro state with a economy the same size as Italy, it would be like Italy trying to take over the world. Canada with a population of only 38 million has a bigger economy then Russia.

We can't just look at economic might alone. Iran has a complete basketcase economy, with a GDP less than even Hong Kong, yet is still able to exert its influence far beyond its borders. It even has the ability to disrupt the Ukrainian power grid. Japan is a technological world leader and hosts the (free) world's second largest economy, yet until very recently barely had any military power. So, while a basketcase Russia might be incapable of being a global superpower, it can still find ways to exert its influence at a low cost, especially if its leadership believe it's necessary for their internal security.

[Woody]

Joe Brandon is in Kyiv right now.

[jaichind]

Joe Brandon is in Kyiv right now.

New Palestine should rename itself Kyiv to get a Biden visit and financial aid.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-president-biden-visits-war-time-kyiv-ahead-invasion-anniversary-2023-02-20/

"U.S. President Biden pledges military aid during Kyiv visit"

The new military aid package will be $500 million

[jaichind]

Russia is a poor petro state with a economy the same size as Italy, it would be like Italy trying to take over the world. Canada with a population of only 38 million has a bigger economy then Russia.

In PPP terms Russia's economy is only a bit below Germany

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-china-stranglehold-world-food-000026443.html

"Russia and China Have a Stranglehold on the World’s Food Security"

Bloomberg article points out that Russia and Belorus's key role in providing fertilizers to the Global South is a significant tool in their toolbox to win the battle in support within the Global South.  This was pointed out last year as well but it seems the position of most Global South states in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to confirm this assertion.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/mystery-money-financed-half-of-turkey-s-2022-current-account-gap

"Mystery Money Financed Half of Turkey’s 2022 Current-Account Gap"

In 2020 Trukey's trade data had "Errors and omissions" of over $24 billion.  Most of this is about the parallel imports into Russia to get around sanctions.  The amount gives one a sense of the scale of these sanction avoidance operations.

The Turkish economic was in big trouble by late 2021 in terms of the balance of payments.  The war saved Turkey.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-president-biden-visits-war-time-kyiv-ahead-invasion-anniversary-2023-02-20/

"U.S. President Biden pledges military aid during Kyiv visit"

The new military aid package will be $500 million

That:s a huge amount of money.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is indeed if taken at face value, but always check the small print first.