Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

I never said "you can never infer someone's beliefs". I said "you can't necessarily tell someone's beliefs based purely off shibboleths". Woodbury has said, multiple times, he is supportive of Ukraine, so it would be quite unfair to him if I didn't take that into account either.
Please, either use the full scope of your mental facilities, or keep your mouth shut. Instead of valid argumentation, you just said stuff that is neither here nor there.
P.S. I would rather die as a moderate than permanently become an extremist.

Your adherence to centrism is itself extreme.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

But again his compliant about aid is only a part of the picture the more general way he raises suspicion is stuff like hyping any Russian progress in Bakmut but downplaying Ukraine progress in Kherson or Kharkiv. Also quite frankly if you go all the way to the start of the thread and what he was posting it paints a picture of a person hoping Ukraine fall so they can lay the blame on Biden and own the libs

Well, it might be possible he could be driven by "own the libs" sort of thinking, deep down, and that legitimately would be the cause for some criticism. But if that is proven, that doesn't prove much by itself, nor does it inherently prove anything - anymoreso than you being firmly opposed to the right and wanting them to lose inherently taints your analysis likewise.
On a sidenote, the duality between you and him helps increase the "completeness" of this thread imo. Please don't stop whatever it is you are doing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

I never said "you can never infer someone's beliefs". I said "you can't necessarily tell someone's beliefs based purely off shibboleths". Woodbury has said, multiple times, he is supportive of Ukraine, so it would be quite unfair to him if I didn't take that into account either.
Please, either use the full scope of your mental facilities, or keep your mouth shut. Instead of valid argumentation, you just said stuff that is neither here nor there.
P.S. I would rather die as a moderate than permanently become an extremist.

Your adherence to centrism is itself extreme.

It's as if you forgot that I explained my ideology to you in PM, specifically September 24, 2022. Please, go through your PM inbox again and read this PM before you go back to me on this.
In any case, this is all I feel it is worth saying (publicly) on the subject for the time being.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But again his compliant about aid is only a part of the picture the more general way he raises suspicion is stuff like hyping any Russian progress in Bakmut but downplaying Ukraine progress in Kherson or Kharkiv. Also quite frankly if you go all the way to the start of the thread and what he was posting it paints a picture of a person hoping Ukraine fall so they can lay the blame on Biden and own the libs

Well, it might be possible he could be driven by "own the libs" sort of thinking, deep down, and that legitimately would be the cause for some criticism. But if that is proven, that doesn't prove much by itself, nor does it inherently prove anything - anymoreso than you being firmly opposed to the right and wanting them to lose inherently taints your analysis likewise.
On a sidenote, the duality between you and him helps increase the "completeness" of this thread imo. Please don't stop whatever it is you are doing.

My feelings on Ukraine have nothing to do with domestic politics and more to do with the images of mass graves of unarmed civilians shot in the back of the head I saw or the images of children who were killed due Putin’s ordered missile strikes on civilian hospitals and schools.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

It is certainly a bold prediction. Let's see where things stand when the time comes.

It seems less likely than not, but at one point it was also considered a "bold" prediction to say that Ukraine would last longer than four days after the Russian invasion began.

Of course, there are things that change the ballgame. US intelligence assistance stopped Russia from taking Kiev and thus stopped Ukraine from losing early.
It seems we are reaching a point where now both sides have the relative strength needed to weather a long-term stalemate. As you noted, Ukraine taking the land bridge can still possibly happen.
If Ukraine's offensive is doing as well as the Ukrainian funeral business, it certainly can.
We just shouldn't assume that the side we support will win, or take what any side says uncritically. Exaggerating casualty counts and various equally truthful things have been a thing since time immemorial, and "fog of war" exists as a phrase for a very good reason.

In the spring and summer of 2022, the Ukrainians bled out the Russians in the Donbas. The Russians suffered high casualties in the battles of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russia had to pause its offensives for a long time after to replenish.

It lead to the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv in September, which took back more land then Russia has taken since April.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1626355688430501889
Anyway getting the thread back on track

[Virginiá]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1626355688430501889
Anyway getting the thread back on track

This wouldn't be the worst idea if they had any idea what they were doing and were able to effectively target Ukrainian air defenses along the front line, but they have proven to be pretty inept at that. They are also choosing to do this as even more air defense systems are set to be transferred to Ukraine at some point in the next couple months.

I have a feeling Russia is going to reconsider and regret this once they start losing double-digit CAS jets worth ten(s) of millions each and practically irreplaceable in Russia's current war economy.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1626315713202819072?s=20

[Storr]

"I began to see the Donbas as it truly was." "Its landscape varies dramatically, wide and flat and seemingly boundless one moment, verdant with rolling hills the next. There were sprawling fields of sunflowers turned up to the cobalt sky, the living embodiment of the Ukrainian flag."


"But here, I struggled to understand what people said, including Nikolai. His speech was 90 per cent Russian, but peppered with Ukrainian words and softer pronunciations. They spoke surzhyk, the Ukrainian word for a mix of wheat and rye flour used to describe this mash-up of Russian and Ukrainian."

"And there was a sense that Kyiv didn’t care much about people in the east or see them as true Ukrainians. Their view of Moscow was similar. In fact, when I asked people about their identities, many said they identified first as people of the Donbas. Not surprising, given this land once ruled by the Cossacks has a long history of rebelling against rulers in both Moscow and Kyiv."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1626209605645742081?s=20

[jaichind]

Italy is doing a good deal better than Germany in finding alternative sources of energy for Russia while still taking in some Russian energy while Germany has gone cold turkey and now seeing a much lower rate of energy imports.

[Woody]

The Russian Army has been probing the last few weeks in Kharkiv Oblast. They occupied the rest of Dvorichne's outskirts, and now occupy Hryanykivka - Ukrainian garrison might have withdrawn behind the Oskil river.

Meanwhile back in Bakhmut: Paraskoviivka is around 2/3 occupied. Wagner pushed south of the town's hospital/eastern outskirts. Unsure if Ukrainians are withdrawing or just generally Wagner pushing them out. Next defensive line is Berkhivka:
https://deepstatemap.live/#6/49.438/32.053
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1626506939545841664?cxt=HHwWgMCzxb...

[Woody]

Better view of Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/newsmap_pl/status/1626534938370613249

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1626277998453293058?cxt=HHwWhIC8vaTO2ZEtAAA...
https://twitter.com/DerLionHeart/status/1626330450867154944

[Woody]

There was another Russian assault on Vuhledar recently.. and they died. That's it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1626597836094840834

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1626611968495722499
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1626628420409909249
A continued running theme has been that Ukraine reports on Russian causalities are conservatives compared to Western intelligence

[CumbrianLefty]

B-but.....Woody says that Russia are winning the war!

[Alben Barkley]

Another mysterious case of a Russian military official "falling" out a window:

https://www.businessinsider.com/top-russian-military-official-dies-fall-window-high-rise-2023-2

[Torie]

This behind the paywall article is about an emerging theme. Far right people really relate to Putin's "far right" Russia in every sense of the word*, and are the most apt to betray their country to spy for him.  This guy worked for the German security network, and before and during the course of the Ukraine War was spilling his guts to Putin,a and seemingly more for ideological reasons rather than monetary ones. Yes, he also had access to CIA intelligence.

Just before he was caught, he was promoted into personnel, an excellent place to give Russia the best prospects to turn into more spies.

It's quite a mess.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/world/europe/germany-russia-spies.html

*One wonders how much of this is driven by the culture wars, since Putin when it comes to culture warriors is the primus inter pares guy so far as I can tell, with Russia perhaps among more advanced nations, the most culturally conservative place on the planet these days.

[Sol]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

I never said "you can never infer someone's beliefs". I said "you can't necessarily tell someone's beliefs based purely off shibboleths". Woodbury has said, multiple times, he is supportive of Ukraine, so it would be quite unfair to him if I didn't take that into account either.
Please, either use the full scope of your mental facilities, or keep your mouth shut. Instead of valid argumentation, you just said stuff that is neither here nor there.
P.S. I would rather die as a moderate than permanently become an extremist.

lol

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1626625310903894030?s=20

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1626579098272403456?s=20

[Woody]

B-but.....Woody says that Russia are winning the war!

Well, yeah. They're gaining land, isn't that what winning is?

[Woody]

And just as I was talking about Paraskoviivka, Wagner has captured most, if not all of the town today. All settlements to the north of Bakhmut is now under Russian control:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1626637051494821888
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1626629048704139264

Map:
https://twitter.com/FahrettinAltay_/status/1626630806767816704

[Woody]

Livemap: https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/17-february-mercenaries-of-pmc-wagner-have-reportedly-captured

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1626646767658799128

[Storr]

"Who were these people? The Donbas elite — the Donetskiye — was (and is to this day) made up of high-ranking people from the Soviet bureaucracy, former Soviet industrial managers known as “red directors,” and the most successful crime bosses. The first two groups established an authoritarian leadership style in the region. The third group imparted penchants for unscrupulous methods for achieving their goals and the use of physical force. At the hands of all three groups, the Donbas in the 1990s became one of the most dangerous parts of Ukraine — local businessmen and politicians were frequently assassinated or killed in showdowns."

"The Donetskiye captured the region’s industrial power and became a serious political force. After considerable efforts to plunder the region’s resources and set up a shadow economy around those resources, the Donetskiye laid all the blame for the ensuing economic crisis at the feet of the authorities in Kyiv, suggesting that Ukraine’s new independence was at the heart of the region’s problems. “The Donbas feeds all of Ukraine, but meanwhile goes hungry,” they said, during the period when the Donbas fed, chiefly, the Donetskiye themselves."

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1626616256513327111?s=20