Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

About damn time.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1617951937877446668

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPIEGEL reports that a company (which would amount to 14 tanks) of Leopard 2A6 will be send to Ukraine by Germany, and that export requests from other countries will also be approved.

I suppose Scholz' arms are so twisted now that they have practically been pulled out of their sockets by the Greens, the FDP, the media, Poland, the Baltic states, and the U.S.

[President Johnson]

SPIEGEL reports that a company (which would amount to 14 tanks) of Leopard 2A6 will be send to Ukraine by Germany, and that export requests from other countries will also be approved.

I suppose Scholz' arms are so twisted now that they have practically been pulled out of their sockets by the Greens, the FDP, the media, Poland, the Baltic states, and the U.S.

I never understood his caution here. Haven't we still not learned that appeasement politics doesn't work with Putin? He only understands strength and determination. It was definitely no unsolvable logistical problem.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPIEGEL reports that a company (which would amount to 14 tanks) of Leopard 2A6 will be send to Ukraine by Germany, and that export requests from other countries will also be approved.

I suppose Scholz' arms are so twisted now that they have practically been pulled out of their sockets by the Greens, the FDP, the media, Poland, the Baltic states, and the U.S.

I never understood his caution here. Haven't we still not learned that appeasement politics doesn't work with Putin? He only understands strength and determination. It was definitely no unsolvable logistical problem.

Most importantly, this looks like a political defeat for Scholz now, when he could have been a leader instead.

[Virginiá]

Seems like the Abrams tanks could be a long-term initiative for Ukraine's future military, and mostly committed to now in order to placate Germany/Scholz and get them to approve Leopard 2 tank deliveries:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1617956020168589313

Quotes from the article:

U.S. officials said details are still being worked out. One official said the tanks would be bought under an upcoming Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, which provides longer-range funding for weapons and equipment to be purchased from commercial vendors.

The U.S. announcement is expected to come on Wednesday in coordination with an announcement by Germany that it will approve Poland’s request to transfer German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to one official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision has not yet been made public.

By agreeing to send the Abrams at an as-yet unspecified time under the assistance initiative, the administration is able to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s demand for an American commitment without having to send the tanks immediately.

[Estrella]

You can always count on Germans to do the right thing – after they've tried everything else.

_{And just like when Churchill said this about Americans, it's not a compliment.}

[Middle-aged Europe]

As it was to be expected, the Leopard decision received praise from representatives of CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP, mixed with some lukewarm "better late than never" comments.

AfD and Left criticized it, obviously.

I guess the SPD will be doing overtime the next couple of days spinning that Olaf Scholz always did everything right at the right time.

[Cashew]

I am not really following the armaments station that closely, so what will be left to give Ukraine by the end of next month? It seems Russia is in a boling frog situation with how western support continues to expand while Russia is content to mobilize just enough to avoid catastrophic collapse.

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1617966526212243456

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am not really following the armaments station that closely, so what will be left to give Ukraine by the end of next month?

Fighter planes, probably.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like the Abrams tanks could be a long-term initiative for Ukraine's future military, and mostly committed to now in order to placate Germany/Scholz and get them to approve Leopard 2 tank deliveries:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1617956020168589313

Quotes from the article:

U.S. officials said details are still being worked out. One official said the tanks would be bought under an upcoming Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, which provides longer-range funding for weapons and equipment to be purchased from commercial vendors.

The U.S. announcement is expected to come on Wednesday in coordination with an announcement by Germany that it will approve Poland’s request to transfer German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to one official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision has not yet been made public.

By agreeing to send the Abrams at an as-yet unspecified time under the assistance initiative, the administration is able to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s demand for an American commitment without having to send the tanks immediately.

How in God's name does it take "years"?? Seriously??? This is the f**king US military-industrial complex we're talking about here. Unless they're deliberately slow-walking this I have no idea why they couldn't get it done in a few months.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

German tanks roll into Eastern Europe in the 20th century: Libs freak out

German tanks roll into Eastern Europe in the 21st century: Libs celebrate

Watch the liberal media try to convince us these situations are different

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1615309198765527041
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1617852779527012357

[Hindsight was 2020]

German tanks roll into Eastern Europe in the 20th century: Libs freak out

German tanks roll into Eastern Europe in the 21st century: Libs celebrate

Watch the liberal media try to convince us these situations are different

G8 B8 M8 I R8 8/8

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1615309198765527041
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1617852779527012357

Yeah, this guy's going to need to be taken out and soon. By far the most depraved member of Putin's inner circle.

[Storr]

Calling Boris Pistorius, Olaf Scholz, and Annalena Baerbock Nazis is so ridiculous, I can't help but find humor in it.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1618010872995270657?s=20&t=B3kid9gs...

[Torie]

Calling Boris Pistorius, Olaf Scholz, and Annalena Baerbock Nazis is so ridiculous, I can't help but find humor in it.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1618010872995270657?s=20&t=B3kid9gs...

This guy is team Zelensky's wet dream.

[HillGoose]

ohhhh yeahhhhhh leopards !!

[NOVA Green]

Change in Switzerland regarding re-export rules that previously hindered delivery of much needed ammunition and weapons to Ukraine?

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/wende-bei-waffen-exporten-schweiz-ld.1722731

Such statements and the images of the badly destroyed country are now causing a rethink: the Security Policy Commission of the National Council passed a motion on Tuesday that would allow other countries to re-export armaments from Switzerland in certain cases: namely in conflicts that the UN - Security Council or two-thirds of the UN General Assembly judged to be contrary to international law. In the case of the Ukraine war, the General Assembly has already decided accordingly.

The Federal Council must now examine whether Switzerland will include corresponding exception clauses in the War Material Act and thus be able to react more flexibly to requests from third countries. The Security Policy Committee of the National Council has adopted a motion by 14 to 11 votes. Since the Commission's initiative has broad support, the political knot in arms exports could be resolved relatively quickly. A parliamentary initiative with a similar thrust should even be declared urgent and come into force before the end of this year. This only relates to the Ukraine war and would be limited to the end of 2025.

This turnaround in Swiss foreign policy was made possible by a change of opinion in the SP, which has already become apparent in the past few days. At the weekend, SP co-president Cédric Wermuth told Radio SRF that in the light of the current situation, what was right in terms of neutrality policy had to be assessed. The SP National Councilor Eric Nussbaumer also acknowledged a change of heart: "I hesitated, but now it's clear: the re-export of ammunition and other armaments must be approved for our neighbors on a case-by-case basis in Ukraine."

(Snippets provided via google translate)

So, not been following all of the ins and outs about different weapons systems from various countries, but honest question--- what exactly does Switzerland have that might be helpful to Ukraine?

[Virginiá]

How in God's name does it take "years"?? Seriously??? This is the f**king US military-industrial complex we're talking about here. Unless they're deliberately slow-walking this I have no idea why they couldn't get it done in a few months.

The way I'm looking at it is that the US doesn't want to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine right now because it remains committed to the belief that the ability of Ukraine to sustain the Abrams fleet in addition to Leopards and Soviet tanks is not possible under such an expedited time frame, but is doing so under the USAI funding appropriations just to give Germany the cover they've been demanding before allowing the delivery & use of German tanks in Ukraine.

Personally, I'd rather the US just provide 1:1 Abrams replacements for any country that sends their own Leopard 2A4 or better tanks to Ukraine. It's easier for Ukraine if they have a single modern tank to deal with, and the Leo is a reasonable choice. But for whatever reason that hasn't been happening (yet).

[Virginiá]

So, not been following all of the ins and outs about different weapons systems from various countries, but honest question--- what exactly does Switzerland have that might be helpful to Ukraine?

Primarily the specialized 35mm ammunition the Gepard flakpanzers use. These systems have turned out to be very effective for Ukraine in countering the Iranian drones Russia is using, in addition to cruise missiles. But Switzerland was the producer of much of the ammunition Germany has and refused to allow Germany to export it, so this addresses that issue. It also makes viable future attempts to acquire more Gepards from countries willing to sell theirs to Ukraine, although Rheinmetall was starting production of this anyway by Summer 2023, so the shortage was bound to be solved eventually.

There are some other things Switzerland has blocked other countries from donating, but not quite as important as Gepard ammo.

[NOVA Green]

So meanwhile the US Military Industrial Complex looks to be moving towards some future gains for anybody interested in investing...

In this case production of artillery shells to increase 500% within the next two years.

The Pentagon is racing to boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years, pushing conventional ammunition production to levels not seen since the Korean War as it invests billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls caused by the war in Ukraine and to build up stockpiles for future conflicts.

The effort, which will involve expanding factories and bringing in new producers, is part of “the most aggressive modernization effort in nearly 40 years” for the U.S. defense industrial base, according to an Army report.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the U.S. Army’s production of 14,400 unguided shells a month had been sufficient for the American military’s way of war. But the need to supply Kyiv’s armed forces prompted Pentagon leaders to triple production goals in September, and then double them again in January so that they could eventually make 90,000 or more shells a month.

The howitzer shells currently in production — essentially large steel bullets filled with explosives — cannot be made as quickly as many consumer goods. Although the way they are built is slowly changing with increasing automation and newer technologies, the heart of the process — cutting, heating, forging and bending steel into shape — remains largely unchanged.

The Defense Department will fund new facilities to make artillery ammunition and is spending roughly $1 billion a year over the next 15 years to modernize government-owned ordnance production facilities in an effort to increase automation, improve worker safety and ultimately make munitions more quickly. Just since August, Congress has allocated $1.9 billion to the Army for the effort.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html

[NOVA Green]

Forgot to mention the package also included rounds for Russian weapons systems...

The Pentagon has also bought ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons that Ukraine had before the invasion and that still make up a large part of its arsenal: 100,000 rounds of ammunition for Russian-made tanks, 65,000 rounds of artillery ammunition and 50,000 Grad artillery rockets.

[The Mikado]

The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617531862309810185?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

A. No one is taking this seriously, but

B. Poland + Lithuania + Belarus + Ukraine is a pretty close analogue of the borders of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, a state every Ukrainian would remember as the last time most of Ukraine wasn't part of Russia (except for the eastern and southern parts which were with the Crimean Khanate and went directly into Russia).

[NOVA Green]

WSJ provides slightly more context regarding background negotiations between the US and Germany and tanks... also differences in perspectives within US GVT organizations as well...

The shift in the U.S. position follows a Jan. 17 call between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon, which thought the tanks would be too difficult for Ukraine to field and maintain.

A senior German official said the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week, which included discussions between U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his German counterpart.

Privately, U.S. officials were frustrated by Germany’s refusal to approve the provision of German-made tanks and have debated how to persuade Berlin to change its stance.

Some State Department and White House officials, however, had been open to meeting the German demands on the Abrams to avoid a diplomatic rupture among Ukraine’s backers and to expedite the delivery of more armor. Some Democratic lawmakers close to the White House, such as Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, have also urged that some Abrams be provided.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492?mod=hp_lead_pos6