Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Dereich]

U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time for the attack that killed Daria Dugina and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html

Is that so? Oh no. Anyways, the mobilization doesn't seem to have changed Ukrainian decisionmaking so far.

[Torie]

Russia's 2022 Q2 GDP YoY came in at -4.1%.  For 2022 Q1 which was mostly before the war it came in at 3.5%.  Given that the recent PMI numbers are coming in higher than expected it seems 2022 total GDP will be much more likely to be -4%.  The current investment banking estimate is around -5.7% as opposed to -10% back in the Spring which I expect to converge to my estimate of around -4% over time.  If so due to base effects and impact of mobilization I do expect Russia's 2024 GDP to be worse than the current expected -2.5% (more like -3% or -3.5%)

Everybody: Sharing war news, talking about potential military actions

Jaichind: Complaining about how negative GDP rates impact his long term investments

I want Jaichind to provide me with some options as a pretend POTUS to persuade Saudi Arabia that instead of decreasing oil production, it is in its best interest to push the pedal to the metal and increase oil production to the max. What "offer" do we make to SA that they cannot refuse? The US needs to go about that too in the short term. Here we have a madman running around waiving his nukes, and SA wants to increase the madman's revenue stream to finance his war crimes? That is just not acceptable, and cannot be tolerated.

[AndyHogan14]

Seeing chatter on Twitter that Russia may be looking to move from positions in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the Kherson front. Time to open up a new front from Zaporizhzhia City to Enerhodar and Melitopol?

[jaichind]

Russia's 2022 Q2 GDP YoY came in at -4.1%.  For 2022 Q1 which was mostly before the war it came in at 3.5%.  Given that the recent PMI numbers are coming in higher than expected it seems 2022 total GDP will be much more likely to be -4%.  The current investment banking estimate is around -5.7% as opposed to -10% back in the Spring which I expect to converge to my estimate of around -4% over time.  If so due to base effects and impact of mobilization I do expect Russia's 2024 GDP to be worse than the current expected -2.5% (more like -3% or -3.5%)

Everybody: Sharing war news, talking about potential military actions

Jaichind: Complaining about how negative GDP rates impact his long term investments

The entire basis of collective West sanctions are to crash the Russia economy so Russia economic numbers are very relevant to this war.  Besides this war will most likely become a long war of attrition so the economic basis of both sides to support the war effort are very relevent.

[jaichind]

I want Jaichind to provide me with some options as a pretend POTUS to persuade Saudi Arabia that instead of decreasing oil production, it is in its best interest to push the pedal to the metal and increase oil production to the max. What "offer do we make to SA that they cannot refuse? The US needs to go about that too in the short term. Here we have a madman running around waiving his nukes, and SA wants to increase the madman's revenue stream to finance his war crimes? That is just not acceptable, and cannot be tolerated.

Go on a coordinated effort with EU UK and Japan to reverse fiscal and monetary tightening.  MBS is cutting oil output not because he wants to help Putin per se but because he can tell the world economy is very likely to go into contraction next year and it is critical to cut oil output to avoid the oil market from crashing.  MBS coordinates with Putin because they have common interests as net natural resource exporters and not some personal affection for each other.     So if the top goal is to try to push up SA output then MBS has to be convinced that this current fiscal and monetary tightening will be reversed and that aggregate demand will be solid in the next couple of years.  Of course, such a policy will also mean that inflation will continue to surge and will create significant political costs for the political leaders of the USA and the rest of the collective West.  It seems relative that that goal (of not losing elections and being ousted from power) getting SA not to have policies that seem to align with Putin will likely prove that this is not important.

Another easier way is to pay SA cash.  Money talks and BS talks.   If changing SA policy is so important then Biden should ask Congress to send $100 billion in free money to SA for them to ramp up oil output.  Of course, SA will have to be convinced that this free cash will not be yanked back in the future so Biden has to get the entire USA political establishment behind it.  Again, it is about "what cost (cash) and political capital are you willing to put behind your policy."  If not much and it is all talk then it is clearly not important.  That is pretty much my answer to most questions like this "show me the money."

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wagner might be staging "mobilisation failure" videos as part of the Kadryov-Wagner-(FSB?) front against Russian MoD leadership.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577758999319089156
Kadryov got promoted to Colonel-General today by Putin.

[Torie]

If the crashing of the oil price is in the cards (color me skeptical, but preach it brother), it must be done. SA needs to do what it is told to do, or face the consequences. Enablers of the madman cannot remain on the island, and must be banned.

[DINGO Joe]

Wagner might be staging "mobilisation failure" videos as part of the Kadryov-Wagner-(FSB?) front against Russian MoD leadership.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577758999319089156
Kadryov got promoted to Colonel-General today by Putin.

Funny you should mention that

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248

Maybe they'll start killing each other.  That would be nice.

[Badger]

https://english.almanar.com.lb/1704408

"Cold Weather Warning Adds to Europe’s Gloom as It Battles Energy Crisis"

Europe may experience a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European Weather Forecast Agency, adding to the challenges facing governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Perhaps just like in 1812 and 1941 General Winter comes to help Russia? Of course, this would be totally different way than in those two years.

Please, less hyperbole in your posts here.

[jaichind]

If the crashing of the oil price is in the cards (color me skeptical, but preach it brother), it must be done. SA needs to do what it is told to do, or face the consequences. Enablers of the madman cannot remain on the island, and must be banned.

Clearly, the USA ramping up production can help toward that goal.  The USA in reality has a oil deficit that it has to make up anyway.  I have always said if stopping Putin is a goal then the USA-Canada needs to go on a hydrocarbon new deal with massive subsidies and spending to massively ramp up hydrocarbon energy production.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wagner might be staging "mobilisation failure" videos as part of the Kadryov-Wagner-(FSB?) front against Russian MoD leadership.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577758999319089156
Kadryov got promoted to Colonel-General today by Putin.

Funny you should mention that

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248
Maybe they'll start killing each other.  That would be nice.

Be careful what you wish for. It's one thing for a more extreme nationalist to replace Putin; it's another for fundamentally unserious people to do so. Rule by mercenaries and warlords is dangerous in different ways, and the outcome would almost certainly be worse for the Russian people.

[DINGO Joe]

Wagner might be staging "mobilisation failure" videos as part of the Kadryov-Wagner-(FSB?) front against Russian MoD leadership.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577758999319089156
Kadryov got promoted to Colonel-General today by Putin.

Funny you should mention that

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248
Maybe they'll start killing each other.  That would be nice.

Be careful what you wish for. It's one thing for a more extreme nationalist to replace Putin; it's another for fundamentally unserious people to do so. Rule by mercenaries and warlords is dangerous in different ways, and the outcome would almost certainly be worse for the Russian people.

Which Russian people?  Cause if you mean Moscow, then good.

[Frodo]

Thanks Putin!

Ukraine's New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons

Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say, as the Russian army left behind its heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies in a disorganized retreat.

Some Russian pieces of equipment were ready for immediate use, while others are being repaired to return to the front. Tanks, vehicles and guns too damaged to salvage are being cannibalized for spare parts. Crucially, Russia has also left behind large quantities of Soviet-standard artillery shells that had nearly run out in Ukraine.

This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region, including the town of Lyman, and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Kyiv has regained more than 4,000 square miles of land in the east over the past month, in addition to advances in the south.

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1577590711704293377?s=20&t=JESRfY...

[GeneralMacArthur]

If the crashing of the oil price is in the cards (color me skeptical, but preach it brother), it must be done. SA needs to do what it is told to do, or face the consequences. Enablers of the madman cannot remain on the island, and must be banned.

Clearly, the USA ramping up production can help toward that goal.  The USA in reality has a oil deficit that it has to make up anyway.  I have always said if stopping Putin is a goal then the USA-Canada needs to go on a hydrocarbon new deal with massive subsidies and spending to massively ramp up hydrocarbon energy production.

Not starting a y-axis at 0 = automatic BS.

[NOVA Green]

So to accentuate what a few others have posted today regarding the conditions of the newly "mobilized" Russian conscripts, here are a few snippets from The WaPo today:

Roman Starovoit, the governor of the Kursk region in western Russia, which is one of the key staging grounds for the invasion, described the state of some military units he recently toured as “awful.”

“I cannot understand how an active training unit of the Ministry of Defense can be in such a condition,” Starovoit said. “A ruined canteen, broken and rusty showers, lack of beds, and the existing ones are broken.”

“There is a lack of uniforms, the parade ground looks as if it had been bombed,” the governor added. “It is good that, at least, there is equipment and weapons.”

The problems with the mobilization announced two weeks ago have snowballed so quickly that more than 20 Russian regional governors resorted to a rare public admission that mistakes had been made, while dismissing several enlistment officers.

There have been widespread reports of men unfit to serve being called to duty, including some who are blind, deaf, disabled or elderly.

The deaths reveal deeper issues in the mobilization efforts, linked to low morale and abysmal conditions in some training centers, where mobilized men sometimes have to sleep on the floor and where the Defense Ministry apparently lacks such basic provisions as socks, adequate food and uniforms.

“Our guys need thermal underwear, warm socks, gloves, cigarettes, sugar, and canned meat,” a message read in one of the groups on Vkontakte, a social media site, organized by mothers and wives of Russian soldiers who are trying to crowdsource gear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/05/putin-annexation-retreat-ukraine-kherson/

[NOVA Green]

Thanks Putin!

Ukraine's New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons

Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say, as the Russian army left behind its heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies in a disorganized retreat.

Some Russian pieces of equipment were ready for immediate use, while others are being repaired to return to the front. Tanks, vehicles and guns too damaged to salvage are being cannibalized for spare parts. Crucially, Russia has also left behind large quantities of Soviet-standard artillery shells that had nearly run out in Ukraine.

This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region, including the town of Lyman, and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Kyiv has regained more than 4,000 square miles of land in the east over the past month, in addition to advances in the south.

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

This appears to include direct quotes from a Wall Street Journal story earlier today, which I read before going to work:

Here are a few more:

The chief of staff of a Ukrainian artillery battalion on the Kharkiv front said his unit now operates four recently captured Russian 2S19 Msta 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, alongside American-made guns, and now has abundant Soviet-caliber ammunition.

“The Russians no longer have a firepower advantage. We smashed up all their artillery units before launching the offensive, and then we started to move ahead so fast that they didn’t even have time to fuel up and load their tanks,” said the officer. “They just fled and left everything behind.”

Ukraine’s experience learning how to operate different weapons systems in a relatively short time has made it easier to repurpose the recently acquired Russian weapons, said Col. Serhiy Cherevatyi of Ukraine’s Operational Command East.

“They are of the Soviet construction school that is easy to understand for us,” he said. “If our people have managed to learn how to use the Panzerhaubitze, the Krabs and the American Paladins, it’s not at all a problem to master the Russian systems that are similar to ours.”

While Ukrainian units often keep smaller captured weapons and ammunition, big-ticket items such as tanks and artillery are usually redistributed through the military’s logistics command, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. “But, even then, they usually stay in the same area, which is only fair,” he added.

Carpathian Sich, for example, transferred to other parts of the military captured howitzers and kept tanks for which it could find crews. The battalion commander said these tanks have now been formally allocated to the unit and are regularly supplied by the military’s logistics with ammunition and fuel, and serviced by visiting crews from Ukrainian tank plants. Ukraine was a major tank manufacturer and exporter before the war

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[NOVA Green]

Not really a military update per se, but still relevant.

This is a must watch political propaganda video from the Ukrainian Gvt. for multiple audiences.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1577712375804862465?s=20&t=OkweEy...

[NOVA Green]

Dunno if the bird dropped nor the location of the video, but Russia has been using increasingly close air support in Eastern Ukraine in the past couple weeks to try to "bail out" massive Russian retreats, which make them much more vulnerable to Ukrainian Air Defense Systems.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577810553803767808?s=20&t=OkweEyv-bFI_o0...

[NOVA Green]

Naturally when looking at the story, one must look at the source(s).

Would seem strange for Ukraine to deliberately telegraph military intentions, unless disinfo.

Still, Russia might have their own interests in boosting the story...

Lean towards and cautiously skeptical this is a Ukrainian disinfo campaign targeting Russian Senior Military and Political Leaders.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577759913727631362?s=20&t=OkweEyv-...

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --The Swedish Security Service stated that the detonations caused the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline system in the country’s exclusive economic zone.
The completed investigation has “strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage,” the Security Service said in a statement.

During the investigation, certain seizures have been made from the crime scene, it added.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

(Bloomberg) --The Swedish Security Service stated that the detonations caused the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline system in the country’s exclusive economic zone.
The completed investigation has “strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage,” the Security Service said in a statement.

During the investigation, certain seizures have been made from the crime scene, it added.

"How will this effect global oil supply chains and consequently my long-term investments in European currency markets. Discuss with maps."
-Jaichind, probably

[Storr]

Ummm....would this be considered kidnapping? (Of course Russia will claim because Kherson is now part of Russia, as is Crimea, this is legal.)

https://twitter.com/niktwick/status/1577941657030377472?s=20&t=mRv0xcOqTnTNi...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ummm....would this be considered kidnapping? (Of course Russia will claim because Kherson is now part of Russia, as is Crimea, this is legal.)

https://twitter.com/niktwick/status/1577941657030377472?s=20&t=mRv0xcOqTnTNi...

If it can be done safely, it is responsible to evacuate civilians from a place which is under (threat of) siege. It's ultimately still kidnapping, because Russia is going to separate families, send people into the far reaches of Russia and has no intention of returning them.

Hopefully, this isn't a cast-iron Russian commitment to "social cleansing". It is quite possible they are using kidnapped Ukrainians as bargaining chips for negotiations, knowing full well that Ukraine isn't going to be able to march to Sakhalin any time soon.

This is one of the reasons why I think it is likely that Ukraine will not retake Crimea even if they have a decisive military edge. Giving up an uncertain campaign in a potentially hostile peninsula is probably a worthwhile trade for the return of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainians (potentially millions, by the end).

[Storr]

More Elon being Elon:

I wonder if something happened a few years after 2012 that would have led many Ukrainians in the east to change their minds regarding Russia? Hmmm....

Edit: Furthermore, the Party of Regions wasn't simply "the pro-Russia party". Yes it favored good relations with Russia, but while also making closer ties to Europe. Yanukovych pursued an Association Agreement with the EU until Putin basically blackmailed him into not signing it.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577842427897020417?s=20&t=mRv0xcOqTnTNi...

Edit: Unsurprisingly, within a few hours his tweet was on Russian state television:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1577942890000547841?s=20&t=mRv0xcOq...