Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1568543924611858434

[rc18]

More on the Donetsk situation:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1568656767395176448

There were DPR conscripts sent to Kherson, who were already whining about being sent away from home. I wonder how they'd react to Ukraine retaking Donetsk...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Meanwhile pro-Russian collaborators have been rapidly fleeing, even to Russia itself.

Officials and “volunteers” working for the Russian-installed occupation administration in the Kharkiv region were retreating to the Russian border and setting up temporary camps amid the Ukrainian breakthrough, and pro-Russian officials were urging residents to flee.

The leader of Russia’s governing United Russia party, which runs quasi-government bodies in occupied Ukrainian territories, announced on Telegram that it moved its “volunteer detachment from Balakliya, Kupyansk, Izyum and Volchansk to the border with the Belgorod region.”

“Refugees arrive here, massively leaving the Kharkiv region due to increased shelling launched by Ukrainian nationalists,” the party leader, Andrei Turchak, wrote on his Telegram blog. “People are leaving with their families; there are many children. There are now more than 400 vehicles at the border.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/10/ukraine-kharkiv-russia-retreat-izyum/

Among them are the involuntarily deported. It is important for Ukraine not to give up on these people or dismiss them as collaborators.

[Isaak]

How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Status quo ante bellum at best. Russia will never pay reparations and annexing Russian territory... I mean, come one. That's not even remotely realistic (and would not be justified by international law either).

[NOVA Green]

This article is a very good read, a nice respite from the disparate twitter squibs as it pulls the bits together so that it reads like narrative of the action in a war game board game.

Aside from perhaps attempts to escape the vise and retreat, what's missing from the narrative is how Russia's military assets are now being deployed in response to Ukraine's advances. But one thing that is certain is that while we don't know, Ukraine knows in real time, thanks to spies in the sky. That is one of the subtexts of this article. As soon as a hollowed out gap appears, the first to know is Ukraine.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/09/the-ukrainian-army-is-surrounding-10000-russian-troops-in-the-east/?sh=2d48720b3b54

An interesting sidebar is the Russian air force assets are absent from the fray. A substantial notice period is required to secure specific bombing coordinates. If what is on the ground slated for bombing are on the move, those coordinates get stale. Bombing buildings is best. They don't move very much.

Addendum: Here is an almost 5 month old article on the matter of Crimea (I surmise that it has been put up before here). The author goes to close to the gates of the place of the ripe hanging fruit in characterizing it. Things didn't progress according to his schedule obviously, but it perhaps offers up some insight as to why Russia took the bait or whatever it was and redeployed military assets to Kherson. Perhaps it is true that what lies beyond is the soft underbelly of the peninsula itself.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-and-how-russian-occupied-crimea-can-fall-ukraine

Both articles were good reads... thanks for sharing!

On the Crimean Front, looks like Russia is moving assets protecting Kerch Bridge.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1568625369015586818?s=20&t=1dieeNYTM...

Link to Mr. Suttons article on the Covert Shores website:

The Kerch Bridge, built by Russia since it annexed Crimea, is of strategic importance. In June extra steps were taken to protect it from Ukrainian attack, including two target barges with radar reflectors. These have now been removed.

They were present in Sentinel 2 satellite imagery on September 5, but not on September 10.

The barges have been an enigma to analysts as it is not clear what they are supposed to achieve. Similar barges have since been used to protect bridges in Kherson. But HIMARS and other Ukrainian systems do not use radar seekers, so it has been in vain. It might be a case of comfort and image ('cope-barges').

At any rate, the ones at Kerch are currently not there.

http://www.hisutton.com/Russia-Kerch-Bridge-Decoys-Gone.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems like the predictions that if Ukraine just holds on long enough the Russian Army will just fall apart in the end could turn out to be true.

[prag_prog]

Rough last few days for Tankies

[Storr]

Clip of AFU rolling into Kupyansk:

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1568667170166677505?s=20&t=CZ4LxC7lVaz4C3...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568586398319378432

[President Johnson]

I never expected the Russians to be that incompetent. I guess not even Western intel saw such a failure coming until the summer of this year.

The West just needs to keep up military aid and deliver even more equipment and weaponry. The biggest challenge will be to keep the sanctions as long as possible. That's probably what it will come down to. Putin banks on Western leaders to surrender under inflation and an energy crisis. We shouldn't back down and instead use the opportunity to gain full energy independence by promoting and expanding renewables as much as possible.

[NOVA Green]

This is what a full blown retreat sounds like:


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568511555288944640?s=20&t=1dieeNYT...

[2952-0-0]

How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Status quo ante bellum at best. Russia will never pay reparations and annexing Russian territory... I mean, come one. That's not even remotely realistic (and would not be justified by international law either).

Over half of Russia's foreign reserves were held in western countries and were frozen in March. The western powers could hold these until Russia agrees to forward a large portion of them to fund reparations. But, more important is that any Ukrainian - adult or child - who was deported into Russia must be returned home. It's better that every Ukrainian is returned home, and Ukraine doesn't get a penny in reparations, than if Russia hands over its entire $600 billion+ reserves, but the Ukrainians aren't returned home.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1568648215582625792?s=20&t=CZ4LxC7lVaz4...

[OSR stands with Israel]

I bet Modi supporters in India are deeply triggered now.

The INC is even more pro Russia than the BJP so yah India is just bad on the issue across the board. In India there probably is a more young vs old rather than a partisan divide as young Indians are generally more pro West than old Indians

[OSR stands with Israel]

Could Ukraine even get back Crimea at this point

[President Johnson]

Could Ukraine even get back Crimea at this point

Maybe not in the coming weeks, but there's an opening in the longer run, as I understand it. Zelenskyy definitely stated that getting back Crimea is what he intends to get done, especially after Putin rejected an earlier offer to negotiate a settlement and a potential backoff from seeking NATO membership (which again proves that this whole "NATO is a threat to Russia" and "encirclement" is total nonsense, and always has been). There's also a reason Ukraine did some sabotage operation in Crimea lately, which they just recently admitted. It's all designed to weaken Russia's military capabilities here.

The only question is how far Putin is ready to go here, because losing Crimea would extremely hurt his standing in Russia, no matter how his propaganda show on the news tries to frame it.

[prag_prog]

I bet Modi supporters in India are deeply triggered now.

The INC is even more pro Russia than the BJP so yah India is just bad on the issue across the board. In India there probably is a more young vs old rather than a partisan divide as young Indians are generally more pro West than old Indians

90% of Indians don't really have some particularily strong feelings for Russia. Most of the Indians probably aren't even aware of the war going on. It's mainly some people in social media who tend to be louder when it comes to being pro-Russia

[OSR stands with Israel]

I bet Modi supporters in India are deeply triggered now.

The INC is even more pro Russia than the BJP so yah India is just bad on the issue across the board. In India there probably is a more young vs old rather than a partisan divide as young Indians are generally more pro West than old Indians

90% of Indians don't really have some particularily strong feelings for Russia. Most of the Indians probably aren't even aware of the war going on. It's mainly some people in social media who tend to be louder when it comes to being pro-Russia

Sure but I am talking about people who are generally political rather than the Normie.

[DINGO Joe]

Hey, if India still wants to buy some Russian weaponry, Ukraine might have some slightly used surplus to sell at a nice price.  And we all know how much India loves a good bargain.

[Torie]

"They are blind and we see everything ... ."

And that combined with Ukraine having long range precision weapons is why Russia can't win anymore in a war zone with vast swaths of land and relatively few troops.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1568695429658984450

[ilikeverin]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1568695429658984450

One of my college friends did Peace Corps in Balakliya and it's been heartwarming seeing her post stories like this from her friends who are in the area

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TsybulskaLiubov/status/1568699930289606657?s=20&t=w5Nev-...

[Torie]

Well Torie the arm chair general espies a possible plan for Kherson. First the black arrow pincer to the Donets, and with the bridges down, then the red noose to starve the beast. Alas, the Russians in this zone seem to have not got the memo yet to cut and run,* but then run to where? I guess they could take their uniforms off again, and pretend to be just folks wandering around the town.

* And it is up close and personal this time: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/10/ukraine-combat-videos-us-weapons/

[CumbrianLefty]

This is all great, and often incredible, stuff - but Russia (well, Putin anyway) are hardly likely going to take this lying down once they have recovered from the shock, surely?

He/they are going to try *something* - the question is what, and how much it should concern not just Ukraine but the rest of the world.