Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

Kings and Generals

Medieval Origins of Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uyHWEOoPnM

Rise of the Cossacks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQ_ocyTRRIE

These guys are getting pretty good at explaining history with maps.

[NOVA Green]

On another note, it appears that Iranian drones gifted to Russia are already experiencing significant quality control issues.

Russian cargo planes have quietly picked up the first of scores of Iranian-made combat drones for use against Ukraine, U.S. officials said, in a move that underscores deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran while also highlighting Russia’s struggles to supply its overstretched military.

Transport planes departed Iran on Aug. 19 hauling at least two types of unmanned aerial vehicles, both capable of carrying munitions for attacks on radars, artillery and other military targets, according to intelligence gathered by U.S. and other spy agencies.

But while the weapons could provide a significant boost for Russia’s war effort against Ukraine, the transfer has been marred by technical problems, security officials from the United States and an allied government said in interviews. In early tests by the Russians, the Iranian drones experienced numerous failures, the officials said.

“There are a few bugs in the system,” said an allied security official whose government closely monitored the transfer. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity and that his nationality not be revealed to discuss sensitive intelligence. “The Russians are not satisfied,” the official said.

In interviews, the U.S. and allied security officials said Russian planes flew to an Iranian military facility to pick up the drones over several days in mid-August. The allied security official said the initial shipment included two models of Shahed drones, the Shahed-129 and Shahed-191, as well as the Mohajer-6. All are considered to be among Iran’s top-of-the-line military drones, designed for attacks as well as surveillance.

The deal was negotiated over several months by a team led by Brig. Gen. Seyed Hojjatollah Qureishi, the chief of the supply and logistics division of Iran’s Defense Ministry, and Russia’s military attache in Tehran, the security official said. Under the arrangement, Iranian technical experts traveled to Russia to help set up the systems, and Russian military officers underwent training in Iran, the official said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/29/iran-drones-russia-ukraine-war/

[NOVA Green]

And another update from the WSJ for those you either interested in and/or following the US weapons inventory issues and supplies of weaponry to Ukraine.

As someone who works in the MFG sector this certainly makes sense, that it can be difficult to easily and quickly expand mfg capacity to meet product demand, even if you have backup lines which can be relatively easily converted from one product to another to meet a dramatic increase in demand, or to cover contingencies if there are significant issues causes disruptions from "large scale MFG lines" based out of Asia-Pacific region, and convert hybrid R&D and MFG lines to full scale 24x7 production models.

One of the most lethal weapons the Pentagon has sent are howitzers that fire high-explosive 155mm ammunition weighing about 100 pounds each and able to accurately hit targets dozens of miles away. As of Aug. 24, the U.S. military said it had provided Ukraine with up to 806,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition. The U.S. military has declined to say how many rounds it had at the start of the year.

In recent weeks, the level of 155mm combat rounds in U.S. military storage have become “uncomfortably low,” one defense official said. The levels aren’t yet critical because the U.S. isn’t engaged in any major military conflict, the official added. “It is not at the level we would like to go into combat,” the defense official said.

The Army said the military is now conducting “an ammunitions industrial base deep dive” to determine how to support Ukraine while protecting “our own supply needs.” The Army said it also asked Capitol Hill for $500 million a year in upgrade efforts for the Army’s ammunition plants. Meanwhile, the service is relying on existing contracts to increase production of ammunition, but it hasn’t signed new contracts to account for the higher amounts it will need to replenish its stocks, according to Army officials.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley has been conducting monthly reviews of the U.S. arsenal to determine whether the readiness levels are still appropriate given the needs for the ammunition in Ukraine, according to U.S. military officials. The U.S. last week provided Ukraine with a different size howitzer ammunition, 105mm, a reflection, in part, of the concern about its stocks of 155mm ammunition, the officials said.

Dormant supply lines often can’t be switched on overnight, and surging production of active lines can take time. Companies are already producing 155mm ammunition, but not at the capacity yet that the Pentagon will need to replenish its stocks.

In the U.S., it takes 13 to 18 months from the time orders are placed for munitions to be manufactured, according to an industry official. Replenishing stockpiles of more sophisticated weaponry such as missiles and drones can take much longer.

Even a yearlong delay is a problem precisely because ammunition shortages can pop up quickly given the rate they can be drawn down in a conflict.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188?mod=hp_lead_pos6

[Virginiá]

And another update from the WSJ for those you either interested in and/or following the US weapons inventory issues and supplies of weaponry to Ukraine.

As someone who works in the MFG sector this certainly makes sense, that it can be difficult to easily and quickly expand mfg capacity to meet product demand, even if you have backup lines which can be relatively easily converted from one product to another to meet a dramatic increase in demand, or to cover contingencies if there are significant issues causes disruptions from "large scale MFG lines" based out of Asia-Pacific region, and convert hybrid R&D and MFG lines to full scale 24x7 production models.

[...]

True, but this quote kind of rings out as well, and I remember reading quotes from industry officials about this months ago:

“This was knowable. It was foreseeable. It was forewarned, including from industry leaders to the Pentagon. And it was easily fixable,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington.

[...]

But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, industry officials have complained that the Pentagon hasn’t always communicated those requirements, which often change, creating delays, and leaving defense contractors unable to prepare for more production.

Honestly, the US should have started this at least 5 months ago. I feel like after a month of fighting, they should have had the foresight to quickly begin this process. US officials clearly knew early on that if the war wasn't quick, Ukraine was eventually going to need large quantities of 155mm artillery systems & ammunition. There also isn't a financial problem at hand given the amount of money flowing into this conflict from the US alone.

I won't speak to the intricacies of how quick the US could technically expand production if they threw lots of money at it, since I don't really know, but lines like this are quite frustrating:

Speaking on an earnings call July 19, Jim Taiclet, chief executive of Lockheed Martin Corp., said the Pentagon has yet to put the contracts in place or coordinate with industry to buy more supplies, a process that often takes two to three years.

We might never know what is possible because apparently the US has made little to no effort to get new contracts going, let alone "speed up" production. This sucks for Ukraine but quite honestly doesn't make the DoD look very competent.

Amazing!

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1564435855900655618

[The Dowager Mod]

And another update from the WSJ for those you either interested in and/or following the US weapons inventory issues and supplies of weaponry to Ukraine.

As someone who works in the MFG sector this certainly makes sense, that it can be difficult to easily and quickly expand mfg capacity to meet product demand, even if you have backup lines which can be relatively easily converted from one product to another to meet a dramatic increase in demand, or to cover contingencies if there are significant issues causes disruptions from "large scale MFG lines" based out of Asia-Pacific region, and convert hybrid R&D and MFG lines to full scale 24x7 production models.

[...]

True, but this quote kind of rings out as well, and I remember reading quotes from industry officials about this months ago:

“This was knowable. It was foreseeable. It was forewarned, including from industry leaders to the Pentagon. And it was easily fixable,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington.

[...]

But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, industry officials have complained that the Pentagon hasn’t always communicated those requirements, which often change, creating delays, and leaving defense contractors unable to prepare for more production.

Honestly, the US should have started this at least 5 months ago. I feel like after a month of fighting, they should have had the foresight to quickly begin this process. US officials clearly knew early on that if the war wasn't quick, Ukraine was eventually going to need large quantities of 155mm artillery systems & ammunition. There also isn't a financial problem at hand given the amount of money flowing into this conflict from the US alone.

I won't speak to the intricacies of how quick the US could technically expand production if they threw lots of money at it, since I don't really know, but lines like this are quite frustrating:

Speaking on an earnings call July 19, Jim Taiclet, chief executive of Lockheed Martin Corp., said the Pentagon has yet to put the contracts in place or coordinate with industry to buy more supplies, a process that often takes two to three years.

We might never know what is possible because apparently the US has made little to no effort to get new contracts going, let alone "speed up" production. This sucks for Ukraine but quite honestly doesn't make the DoD look very competent.

Amazing!

Fearmongering at it's finest, the DOD has a hard line that they won't cross as far as depleting stocks, they know what they need to hold back.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1564341780769824768

If Ukraine liberates Kherson, they should move into Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia Oblast afterwards. Russia wants to illegally annex these regions, so they should be the first to be liberated.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1559923712174051328

[Oryxslayer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1564341780769824768

If Ukraine liberates Kherson, they should move into Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia Oblast afterwards. Russia wants to illegally annex these regions, so they should be the first to be liberated.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1559923712174051328

I mean the dream that many Military analysts are suggesting right now is that Ukrainian forces move fast and try to trap the Kherson forces between the Dnieper and their hammer, and in doing so try to use geography and destruction of infrastructure to create a pocket. Even if the men can get out severing the bridges would mean that all equipment would need to be abandoned. This is the type of speedy action that could start a panic spiral and mass route if performed effectively, but we won't know what will happen for a while if secrecy  is maintained.

[Frodo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1564341780769824768

If Ukraine liberates Kherson, they should move into Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia Oblast afterwards. Russia wants to illegally annex these regions, so they should be the first to be liberated.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1559923712174051328

I mean the dream that many Military analysts are suggesting right now is that Ukrainian forces move fast and try to trap the Kherson forces between the Dnieper and their hammer, and in doing so try to use geography and destruction of infrastructure to create a pocket. Even if the men can get out severing the bridges would mean that all equipment would need to be abandoned. This is the type of speedy action that could start a panic spiral and mass route if performed effectively, but we won't know what will happen for a while if secrecy  is maintained.

A 21st century version of Operation Uranus, with Kherson as Stalingrad, and the occupying Russian forces there as von Paulus' Sixth Field and Fourth Panzer armies?  If only the Ukrainian military were capable of an offensive of that size, magnitude, and complexity.    

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The plot thickens.....
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1561384191040065536

Update: Came across this youtube video. You might find what this man said interesting.

[Person Man]

A more serious question:
How will the second battle of Technohouse unfold?

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1564531464527544320


Maybe there's a collaborator convention in Russia but the appointed head of Kherson is doing his "there's nothing to worry about" speeches from 1000 mi away.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1564531464527544320

Maybe there's a collaborator convention in Russia but the appointed head of Kherson is doing his "there's nothing to worry about" speeches from 1000 mi away.

Here is a bit more chat about the matter and alleged action in and around Kherson, and who claims to have killed who.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-kherson-counteroffensive-kirill-stremousov-fled-russia-1738042

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1564674317127933958

[jaichind]

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/granholm-wants-refiners-to-export-less-fuel-amid-domestic-infrastructure-constraints/

"Granholm Wants Refiners to Export Less Fuel Amid Domestic Infrastructure Constraints"

In a letter publicized by media outlets and on social media but not by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently urged domestic refiners to curb their global fuel exports to build domestic inventories.

Another great example of the solidarity of the grand anti-Putin mother of all alliances

[NOVA Green]

Apparently something was going on in Kherson City earlier today.

Video circulating on social media Tuesday and verified by The Washington Post shows smoke and gunfire in the southern city of Kherson, which has been occupied by Russian forces since early in the war. Other videos posted online in recent days and verified by The Post show signs of damage to infrastructure and residential life in the region, including smoke near the strategic Antonovsky Bridge, destruction to a market, as well as bodies and burned military vehicles near the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/30/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[NOVA Green]

A little bit more:


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1564731009131765761?s=20&t=_9ffKc...

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1564568855464366080?s=20&t=_9ffKcjN...

https://twitter.com/AGrusanskij/status/1564709063732101127?s=20&t=_9ffKcjNHT...

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1564600554625634305?s=20&t=_9ffKcjN...

[NOVA Green]

Here is a clip reportedly from KC earlier today where gunfire is clearly audible.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1564486362052661248?s=20&t=_9ffKcjNHT...

and another...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1564486362052661248?s=20&t=_9ffKcjNHT...

[NOVA Green]

According to the WSJ Ukrainian Armor crossed the Inhulets River and established a beachhead...

After a crescendo of long-range strikes on Russian military facilities and bridges in the dark of night early Monday, Ukrainian forces launched a southern offensive with attacks along the front lines.

Ukrainian armor crashed over the Inhulets River and established a bridgehead, the main gains that Kyiv has made in two days of fighting.

“Ukrainians can sense that momentum is shifting in their favor,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. “This will make it much more feasible for Ukraine’s supporters, as well as Ukrainians, to envision the recovery of Ukraine. It will continue to remove the idea that Russian victory is inevitable.”

Thousands of Russian troops on the western bank of the Dnipro River are now all but trapped, with Ukraine saying it had damaged bridges across the river sufficiently to prevent any heavy vehicles from crossing.

“They haven’t been properly resupplied,” said Gen. Hodges. “Their chances of getting out of there are not good.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-tries-to-make-southern-offensive-a-turning-point-in-war-11661890321?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[jaichind]

https://nypost.com/2022/08/25/germany-says-weapons-stocks-depleted-amid-support-for-ukraine/

"Germany says weapons stocks depleted amid support for Ukraine"

Russia clearly has not succeeded yet in its goal of "de-militarizing" Ukraine but seems to be making good progress on "de-militarizing" the EU.

[jaichind]

Russian narrative of Ukraine Kherson counteroffensive

Namely, counterattacks in 1 and 2 were mostly contained.    Counterattacks 3 were completely repulsed and counterattacks in 4 have Ukraine making some progress and there is heavy fighting.  In the meantime, the Russian advance toward Nikolayev continues.



Clearly, until the fog of war clears but it is not clear what progress Ukraine will make and at what cost.  Overall it does not seem like a good idea for Ukraine to attack like this when they are weaker in terms of air control and artillery power.  In such a situation Ukraine should want to Russians to attack them in fortified positions where Russian air power and artillery advantages are mitigated versus trying to advance in the open.

[Lord Halifax]

Overall it does not seem like a good idea for Ukraine to attack like this when they are weaker in terms of air control and artillery power.  In such a situation Ukraine should want to Russians to attack them in fortified positions where Russian air power and artillery advantages are mitigated versus trying to advance in the open.

that logic doesn't really apply when the Russians are cut off on the west side of the Dnieper.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1564843163839258624
Ukraine has pushed the front line in Kherson back ‘some distance’ in latest reports from British intelligence

Edit: also Russia has claimed to of destroyed 100+ tanks and killed 1k Ukraine soldiers in the counterattack so far so any claims they are making should be taken with massive skepticism

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1564969689587007488

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-special-military-operation-counter-terrorist-mission-eliminate-zelensky-1738444

LOL, like this is going to frighten the world's biggest gigachad.