Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Source https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61742736

Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide

Mykhaylo Podolyak said Ukraine needed hundreds of Western artillery systems to level the playing field with Russia in the eastern Donbas region.

He also said Kyiv is not ready to resume peace talks with Moscow.

Ukrainian troops are under relentless bombardment as Russian forces attempt to take control of the whole of Donbas.

He repeated Ukraine's appeal for more weapons from the West, saying that the "complete lack of parity" between the Russian and Ukrainian armies was the reason for Ukraine's heavy casualty rate.

Mr Podolyak's suggestion that 100 to 200 Ukrainian soldiers are dying each day is higher than previous estimates. On Thursday, Ukraine's Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said Ukraine was losing 100 soldiers a day, and 500 more were injured.

The original figure of 50-100 casualties (not all of which were deaths) was, apparently,high. It’s possible this one is true, but it wouldn’t be the first time Ukrainian officials exaggerated the scale of a problem to stress the importance of delivering more aid.

We are not immune to information warfare.

Same thing entered my mind.

Ukraine’s salient in Luhansk could conceivably cause significantly higher Ukrainian casualties than in other battles, but if they had really ratcheted up this much, I would have expected the TikTok Chechens to be posting more clips and the Oryx lists to be growing faster. That is what gives me the most pause here.

[Woody]

Some Nazi sh*t:
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535029213862023169

[Person Man]

Some Nazi sh*t:
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535029213862023169

It’s a genocide and I prefer a large nuclear exchange to a future where this regularly happens.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not going to "regularly" happen, though - the deterrent effect of this war (which however it ends is a million miles away from the quick and easy conquest Russia totally expected) should see to that.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535173112303603713
People on the ground are reporting the Wagner Group lost 200-300 troops

[jaichind]

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy/russian-inflation-slows-after-spike-and-likely-clinches-rate-cut/

"Russian inflation slows after spike and likely clinches rate cut"

Russian May CPI MoM collapses to 0.12%   This means the Russia run rate CPI is now at low single digits while the collective West is now dealing with inflation at high single digits. 

[Person Man]

Its not going to "regularly" happen, though - the deterrent effect of this war (which however it ends is a million miles away from the quick and easy conquest Russia totally expected) should see to that.

Let’s hope they don’t become successful.

[Sir Mohamed]

Some Nazi sh*t:
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535029213862023169

This is totally what "liberators" do, right?

It's not just a form of war crimes, Russians also use psychological warfare with this kind of cr*p (just like rape etc.). I pray I'll ever get to see the day Putler appears before an international court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Some Nazi sh*t:
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535029213862023169

It’s a genocide and I prefer a large nuclear exchange to a future where this regularly happens.

No, causing the deaths of an additional millions of innocent men, women and children isn’t the way to avenge those children, either.

[jaichind]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/kremlin-declares-land-bridge-complete-between-russia-donbass-and-crimea_4518511.html

"Kremlin Declares Land Bridge Complete Between Russia, Donbass and Crimea"

This should make it easier for the Russians to resupply its troops on the Kherson front and in theory start a buildup toward a land offensive toward Odesa

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-lacks-clear-picture-ukraines-120806912.html

"U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine's War Strategy, Officials Say"

Beginning of the blame game in DC ?

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/russia-cuts-rates-pre-war-103444367.html

"Russia Rates Come Full Circle Since War, With More Cuts in Doubt"

Russian interest rates now back to levels below the war as CPI MoM falls rapidly.  But even this rate cut could not stop the rise of RUB as more money flow into Russia.  The key fact here is that Russian imports collapsed while the Russian terms of trade improved greatly due to the surge of raw material prices on the world market.  So this type of RUB surge is clearly unhealthy but it is a clear sign that inflation is under control in Russia relative to the rest of the world precisely because Russia has a surplus of items whose prices are rising the most in the world.

[jaichind]

The RUB market has turned into bizzroworld with policymakers in Moscow trying to weaken the exchange rate and traders driving it up relentlessly.  Here this Putin "gas for RUB" has a bit blown up in the face of the Russian Central Bank with a massive tidal wave of USD/EUR flooding in as a result and the Russian Central Bank trying their best to make sure the RUB does not get too high.

Looking at the actions of the Russian Central Bank it seems they want a RUB at around 60

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535173112303603713
People on the ground are reporting the Wagner Group lost 200-300 troops

There's 200-300 scalps!

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/07/yellen-us-curb-russia-oil-revenue-00037779

"Yellen: U.S. working with allies to curb Russia's oil revenue"

Next idea: inverse OPEC, a buyers cartel

Without India and PRC in it, there will be a big hole in the cartel

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1535354930285924353

[Storr]

Epic trolling:

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1535261709463592961?s=20&t=FrElKPeBLbGGlU9K...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1535125381920989185?s=20&t=FrElKPeBLb...

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1535125381920989185?s=20&t=FrElKPeBLb...

That’s really dark. Jesus. Lots of people for sure.

[Person Man]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/07/yellen-us-curb-russia-oil-revenue-00037779

"Yellen: U.S. working with allies to curb Russia's oil revenue"

Next idea: inverse OPEC, a buyers cartel

Without India and PRC in it, there will be a big hole in the cartel

There needs to be a buyers’ cartel.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/07/yellen-us-curb-russia-oil-revenue-00037779

"Yellen: U.S. working with allies to curb Russia's oil revenue"

Next idea: inverse OPEC, a buyers cartel

Without India and PRC in it, there will be a big hole in the cartel

There needs to be a buyers’ cartel.

The route to such a cartel would mean that it will not work.  The way a cartel can get its way is to show it can walk away and that it will just refuse to buy or sell unless it gets the price that it wants.  The very fact that the EU tried to create an embargo on Russian oil and pretty much failed tells Russia that the EU cannot walk away.  This pretty much means the Russians will call this buyer cartel's bluff even if it can organize itself to form such a cartel.  The best such a cartel can do is put a tariff on Russian oil but that would just be paid by EU and US consumers and not the Russians.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1535354930285924353

A lot of dead minions of Putin’s cartoon supervillains today.

[Logical]

These numbers came from the DNR 1st Army Corps only. This does not include LNR casualties and volunteer/militia units. According to official data the DNR has a total of 20k professionals in their pre war army. So they have lost at least half of their experienced forces in just 3 months of war. This matches what Russian mil bloggers and Girkin have been saying, that the separatist armies are spent as a fighting force, only conscripts and alcoholics are left in their "army".
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1535374429504405504

[Person Man]

These numbers came from the DNR 1st Army Corps only. This does not include LNR casualties and volunteer/militia units. According to official data the DNR has a total of 20k professionals in their pre war army. So they have lost at least half of their experienced forces in just 3 months of war. This matches what Russian mil bloggers and Girkin have been saying, that the separatist armies are spent as a fighting force, only conscripts and alcoholics are left in their "army".
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1535374429504405504

So half of their original standing army has been annihilated?

[Logical]

These numbers came from the DNR 1st Army Corps only. This does not include LNR casualties and volunteer/militia units. According to official data the DNR has a total of 20k professionals in their pre war army. So they have lost at least half of their experienced forces in just 3 months of war. This matches what Russian mil bloggers and Girkin have been saying, that the separatist armies are spent as a fighting force, only conscripts and alcoholics are left in their "army".
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1535374429504405504

So half of their original standing army has been annihilated?

More or less. Can't imagine the survivors are eager for another urban knuckle fight like Mariupol.