Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1534450075786698752?s=20&t=fXEAlFPpkDQa...

[Person Man]

Hopefully Kherson becomes indefensible even if Russia completely overruns the Donbas.

[Sir Mohamed]

Russian priorities in Mariupol:

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1534076982522265600

Horrible. Hopefully Ukraine will soon be able to retake Mariupol.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Kiel Institute for World Economy, the oldest economic research institute in Germany, maintains a "Ukraine Support Tracker" that looks like this:














Website: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

I’d be interested to see what information it is using to calculate this. At least some of the deliveries are secret in quality and especially quantity, particularly when it comes to Soviet/Russian equipment that can blend in seamlessly with pre-existing Ukrainian stocks. I was initially skeptical of these deliveries happening at comparable scale to the public ones, but the delivery of an unknown number of Su-25 warplanes and allegedly Strela-10 AA systems has caused me to reassess.

I also wonder about what the relatively transparent US aid packages hide under the label of “spare parts”, and which countries are providing/relying on free or discounted backfills from allies.

[JimJamUK]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1534450075786698752?s=20&t=fXEAlFPpkDQa...

Obviously hope to be proven wrong, but I’m sceptical of any sudden significant advances for Ukraine in the Kherson area. Despite regular claims of major advances over the past couple of months, Ukrainian forces seem to have gained little ground and are still stuck around the edges of Kherson Oblast.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The time it takes for Germany to deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine is increasingly becoming an issue in German media now. Olaf Scholz himself fueled the fire a bit by publicly boasting that "nobody delivers as many weapons to Ukraine as Germany" which obviously was a politically moronic move that seems to backfire. So it goes.

[Woody]

Interesting analysis on where the Russians might have crossed the Siverskyi Donets river from Sviatohirsk:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1534537565877026816?cxt=HHwWgIC-yaXy4ssqA...

[Storr]

Strange development happening.. as mention above, Ukrainians destroyed the bridge when retreating south of Sviatohirsk.. apparently the Russians for once in their lifetimes actually managed to do a river crossing (most likely a pontoon bridge?) in the Sieversky donets:

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1534434489811841025?t=FgWUFZ8RmSh05fdan...
https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1534429309150146560
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1534439665209581568

Still waiting for confirmation.

Of course this guy didn't post the new satellite imagery that supposedly shows "no sign" of a Russian pontoon bridge.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1534590408139087872?s=20&t=ioZ3kOsyEd7ufl...

[Storr]

This video was taken from somewhere the western side of the Siverskyi Donets River, which is on higher ground than Severodonetsk.

https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1534634631517155328?s=20&t=mmE9imIO...

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1534552766831788032?s=20&t=_oa6wAZnzy74s5...

[Skill and Chance]

Russian priorities in Mariupol:

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1534076982522265600

Horrible. Hopefully Ukraine will soon be able to retake Mariupol.

It would be just, but from a practical standpoint it's closer to Russia proper than to current Ukrainian frontlines.  They would have to be winning in a total rout to advance over 200 km into enemy territory.

[Storr]

Serious A-Team vibes:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1534673855234580481?s=20&t=mmE9imIOwKm9...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Shtirlitz53/status/1534305549222875138

[Logical]

I love how CAESAR's user interface is straight out of an early 2000s strategy game.

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

"Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals"

Not sure all the stuff/numbers being said in the report are true but this is another example of the Western media trying to prepare their population for likely future positive news for Russia's military advances.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

"Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals"

Not sure all the stuff/numbers being said in the report are true but this is another example of the Western media trying to prepare their population for likely future positive news for Russia's military advances.

Quite apart from the use of the classic weasel words "up to", if Russia had anything like that sort of numerical advantage they would be making sweeping advances rather than slow incremental gains?

Even incompetence has its limits given a supremacy of such an order of magnitude.

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

"Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals"

Not sure all the stuff/numbers being said in the report are true but this is another example of the Western media trying to prepare their population for likely future positive news for Russia's military advances.

Quite apart from the use of the classic weasel words "up to", if Russia had anything like that sort of numerical advantage they would be making sweeping advances rather than slow incremental gains?

Even incompetence has its limits given a supremacy of such an order of magnitude.

It is certainly true that given the hype of the Russian armed forces their ability to plan and execute large-scale advances seems far below par.  Their recent limited success is more of a success of massive artillery bombardment much like WWI Western front battles. 

Of course, things I think one has to keep in mind should be
a) Russian military doctrine has always been about the destruction of the enemy forces versus capturing territory.  Their current strategy could be more about their self-assessment that they are less likely to destroy the professional core of the Ukraine forces if they break the front and they fall back versus keeping the front static and luring the professional core to move to the front where they can be taken out slowly with brute mass artillery
b) Russian control of the air PLUS Western allies feeding up-to-date intelligence to Ukraine just make large-scale offensive hard for both sides.  Any large concentration of Russian forces for a large-scale offensive can be detected by the West and fed to Ukraine where counter-measures can be taken.  Likewise, Russian control of the air also means they can attack a large concentration of Ukrainian forces in the open who are getting ready for the offensive.

It seems these factors are producing a protracted grind attritional war and it comes down to which sides runs out of trained troops, equipment or political will.

[Woody]

Good news as mention earlier:
https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1534788353283039232?cxt=HHwWgIC9rYX41Mw...

In Severodonetsk:
https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1534801413129240576?cxt=HHwWgICw5Zzw2sw...

[Woody]

Little discussion about PMC Wagner lately.. RU has concentrated it's forces heavily in the Bakhmut front. And rumblings in the Ukrainian sphere says that they are soon going to assault the city (UA still controls the road):

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1534771957908099072?cxt=HHwWgMC...

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

"Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals"

Not sure all the stuff/numbers being said in the report are true but this is another example of the Western media trying to prepare their population for likely future positive news for Russia's military advances.

Quite apart from the use of the classic weasel words "up to", if Russia had anything like that sort of numerical advantage they would be making sweeping advances rather than slow incremental gains?

Even incompetence has its limits given a supremacy of such an order of magnitude.

It is certainly true that given the hype of the Russian armed forces their ability to plan and execute large-scale advances seems far below par.  Their recent limited success is more of a success of massive artillery bombardment much like WWI Western front battles. 

Of course, things I think one has to keep in mind should be
a) Russian military doctrine has always been about the destruction of the enemy forces versus capturing territory.  Their current strategy could be more about their self-assessment that they are less likely to destroy the professional core of the Ukraine forces if they break the front and they fall back versus keeping the front static and luring the professional core to move to the front where they can be taken out slowly with brute mass artillery
b) Russian control of the air PLUS Western allies feeding up-to-date intelligence to Ukraine just make large-scale offensive hard for both sides.  Any large concentration of Russian forces for a large-scale offensive can be detected by the West and fed to Ukraine where counter-measures can be taken.  Likewise, Russian control of the air also means they can attack a large concentration of Ukrainian forces in the open who are getting ready for the offensive.

It seems these factors are producing a protracted grind attritional war and it comes down to which sides runs out of trained troops, equipment or political will.

Remarkable how much more this conflict resembles WWI than WWII.

[Badger]

https://www.infowars.com/posts/ukraine-to-ban-war-and-peace-from-being-taught-in-schools/

"Ukraine to Ban ‘War and Peace’ From Being Taught in Schools"

Leo Tolstoy’s ‘War and Peace’ and other classic historical novels that portray the Russian military in anything other than a negative light will be banned from being taught in Ukrainian schools, it has been announced.

Not explicitly saying this is false, but until we get a report from some Source less absolute crackpot band Infowars, caveat emptor

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1534882142072627200?s=20&t=2kfjLg...

[Logical]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

"Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals"

Not sure all the stuff/numbers being said in the report are true but this is another example of the Western media trying to prepare their population for likely future positive news for Russia's military advances.

Quite apart from the use of the classic weasel words "up to", if Russia had anything like that sort of numerical advantage they would be making sweeping advances rather than slow incremental gains?

Even incompetence has its limits given a supremacy of such an order of magnitude.

It is certainly true that given the hype of the Russian armed forces their ability to plan and execute large-scale advances seems far below par.  Their recent limited success is more of a success of massive artillery bombardment much like WWI Western front battles.  

Of course, things I think one has to keep in mind should be
a) Russian military doctrine has always been about the destruction of the enemy forces versus capturing territory.  Their current strategy could be more about their self-assessment that they are less likely to destroy the professional core of the Ukraine forces if they break the front and they fall back versus keeping the front static and luring the professional core to move to the front where they can be taken out slowly with brute mass artillery
b) Russian control of the air PLUS Western allies feeding up-to-date intelligence to Ukraine just make large-scale offensive hard for both sides.  Any large concentration of Russian forces for a large-scale offensive can be detected by the West and fed to Ukraine where counter-measures can be taken.  Likewise, Russian control of the air also means they can attack a large concentration of Ukrainian forces in the open who are getting ready for the offensive.

It seems these factors are producing a protracted grind attritional war and it comes down to which sides runs out of trained troops, equipment or political will.

Remarkable how much more this conflict resembles WWI than WWII.

Basic military theory states that you need Mass AND Firepower in order to facilitate the large scale maneuver warfare of WWII. Neither side has this. Ukraine has Mass but not Firepower, Russia has Firepower but not the Mass to exploit breakthroughs. So you end up with attrional warfare and small scale attacks as both sides try to whittle down and exhaust the other to in order to advance on limited sections of the front.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1534882142072627200?s=20&t=2kfjLg...

Ukraine doesn’t have the American MLRS yet, and will only receive them in small quantities at first. The restrictions will hurt their operations a bit, but they can reroute much larger stocks of other MLRS if they really need to use that to hit Russian territory near Kharkiv and send the American equipment to different areas.

[The Dowager Mod]

Awful.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1534897134146883584

[Sir Mohamed]

Awful.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1534897134146883584

Ugh.

I thought Russia doesn't have the death penalty?