Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s actually amazing to put everything into perspective as if you go back to the start of this thread the general consensus was that Russia would conquer the entire eastern half of the country and the question is if a successful puppet government in Lyiv could be set up while helping militas wage a decade long guerrilla resistance to Russia ala Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead we are in month 4 of the invasion and Kyiv is safe, the north is safe, Mariupol still hasn’t officially fallen, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet is at the bottom the Black Sea, Russia lost more men than we did in Iraq and Afghanistan combined, and they are on the verge of a collapse in their Donbas offensive. To say this invasion was been a military disaster for Russia is an understatement

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1521957444913668101?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Useful info, not a useful infographic

all things considered a fairly terrible graphic. Why is the M777 line in the middle of the arc? Is there some significance to that?

if the M777 info was smashed all up next to the French gun it would be so much more confusing.

[NOVA Green]

Perhaps not "new news", for much of us actually following the nuances, but on top of all of the Russian military issues, underestimating the ability of the EU and NATO to effectively align with the US on both Military, Political, and Economic responses there is perhaps an even greater strategic underestimation of the Ukrainian Public Opinion, especially in the South and East, when it came to their concept that they would be welcomed as "liberators" as opposed to "occupiers".

Per NYT and good long read:

Russia’s Grave Miscalculation: Ukrainians Would Collaborate

KRYVYI RIH, Ukraine — The solicitation to commit treason came to Oleksandr Vilkul on the second day of the war, in a phone call from an old colleague.

Mr. Vilkul, the scion of a powerful political family in southeastern Ukraine that was long seen as harboring pro-Russian views, took the call as Russian troops were advancing to within a few miles of his hometown, Kryvyi Rih.

“He said, ‘Oleksandr Yurivich, you are looking at the map, you see the situation is predetermined,’” Mr. Vilkul said, recalling the conversation with a fellow minister in a former, pro-Russian Ukrainian government.

“Sign an agreement of friendship, cooperation and defense with Russia and they will have good relations with you,” the former colleague said. “You will be a big person in the new Ukraine.”

On the eve of the war, Mr. Vilkul was most likely the Russian-leaning politician in Ukraine with the broadest popular support. “I was alone on this level,” he said. He was also viewed by Moscow as a promising potential convert to its side when it invaded Ukraine.

On the first days of the invasion, Mr. Vilkul ordered the region’s mining companies to park heavy equipment on the runway of the city’s airport, thwarting an airborne assault, and on approach roads, slowing tank columns. The tires were then popped and engines disabled.

“If we fight the Russians,” he said, “were we ever really pro-Russian, in essence?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/07/world/europe/russia-putin-ukraine-politicians.html

[Woody]

Huge news from the frontlines. Popasna has fallen to Russia:

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1523090542900355073?cxt=HHwWgoCppe6...

[Woody]

Confirmation by the Governor of Luhansk, UA forces have withdrawn from Popasna to "stronger positions" (Possibly as far back as Bakhmut)

https://t.me/serhiy_hayday/6369

Next in line for the Russians is the road to Bakhmut. A city that is across the Luhansk-Donetsk border and has a population a little over 70,000 people... either that or go up north and try to isolate/encircle Severodonetsk

In the Izyum front Russians have reached to northern outskirts of Shandryholove village. Lyman is surrounded by RU forces to it's south and east.

https://t.me/ukrinform_news/68970

[Woody]

All the civilians in Azovstal have been evacuated from Azovstal according to Zelensky.

“We took all civilians out of the Azovstal plant and are now preparing for the second stage of the evacuation mission to evacuate those who are wounded and medics,” he said. “Of course, we are working on evacuating our military, all the heroes who are defending Mariupol.”

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/8/russia-ukraine-war-all-women-children-evacuated-from-azovstal

Russia unlikely to let the few remaining Azov fighters leave.

[BlueSwan]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-russian-oil-ban-hits-131311689.html

Hungary looks set to put a stop to the European Union’s ban on Russian oil imports after leader Viktor Orbán compared the proposal to an atomic bomb.

Screw the EU then and each nation should unilaterally implement their sanctions .

Better yet. Kick Hungary out of the EU. It's high time. What a mistake that there are no official provisions for doing so.

[Logical]

This is a modern day slave raid.
https://twitter.com/deankirby_/status/1522853991314509826

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosa46/status/1523293046183383041https://twitter.com/katierogers/status/1523295321245163521

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1523307225485352965

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosa46/status/1523293046183383041

that actually seemed like a genuine moment those two had, those are rare in this kind of thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Another Ukraine poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another Ukraine poll.

Encouraging to see that anti-Russian sentiment is that low in spite of all Ukraine has suffered.

[Cassius]

Another Ukraine poll.

Encouraging to see that anti-Russian sentiment is that low in spite of all Ukraine has suffered.

The anti-Russian option has an overwhelming majority on three of the six questions, whilst the opposition to dismantling World War II monuments is hardly surprising given the contribution made by Ukrainians during that conflict. As for the literary question, to have only 30% opposing such a move is a pretty low one given the contribution to world literature made by the Russian literary canon (especially when you consider how many Ukrainians have read or have had to read elements of that canon at some point).

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but the point is its still not a blanket rejection of everything "Russian".

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1523228717564440576

[dead0man]

What is the sense exactly in posting the above?

sarcasm?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1523307225485352965
https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1523310950912126978

[CumbrianLefty]

What is the sense exactly in posting the above?

sarcasm?

Maybe not with that poster though.

[Storr]

One unlucky Russian tank crew:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523290805762686976?s=20&t=vPT5H4WFwKDt...

[Storr]

This guy is a thing...evidently.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1523364027929272320?s=20&t=WcayDeDofgKTA966...

According to his bio on the "Peace and Freedom Party: California's Feminist Socialist Political Party" website he's currently a candidate in the June primary for US Senate. I'll admit it's a unique way to campaign, but I guess you can't fight the corrupt corporate oligarchy by simply making speeches.

https://www.peaceandfreedom.us/news/elections-campaigns/primary-election-2022-john-parker-for-u-s-senate

Here's his commentary on the war, which is about as brain dead as you'd expect:

https://www.peaceandfreedom.us/positions/pfp-chair-statements/pfp-statements-war-russia-ukraine-nato

"We Must Remain on the Correct Side of History

War drives present avalanches of biased information, making difficult the discernment of reality vs what is simply war propaganda. Our corporate media, as in all war drives, switched gears from seemingly objective reporting to robotic allegiance to one narrative of the U.S. No person or organization wants to lose friends and support taking stands for truth in such an environment.

But if we don’t, who will highlight the alternative media sources in Ukraine reporting a totally different story? Corporate media reruns lies of the Gulf of Tonkin, babies thrown from incubators, etc., to allow, this time, the most dangerous threat to humanity: NATO’s continued expansion. This expansion has nearly doubled NATO in 20 years.

In that time, we’ve seen its aggressive nation-destroying power cause the death of millions, a worldwide refugee crisis and the creation and enabling of terrorist organizations from ISIS to the rise of neo-Nazis now officially in the Ukrainian government. Neo-Nazi military organizations, funded with billions of dollars and training from the U.S. government, led the war crimes against the people of Donbass for the last eight years, killing 14,000.

Last November’s appointment by President Zelensky of Nazi leader Dmitro Yarosh as adviser to Commander of Ukrainian Armies explains why Luhansk and Donetsk, now independent republics, had every right to ask for Russia’s help. And it was also Russia’s right to stop an existential threat on its borders – including the real possibility of a Nazi-led, white supremacist military possessing NATO weaponry.

This war will only stop and not escalate when the U.S. is forced to end the expansion. We must target the root cause of this war – U.S. imperialism – and expose the rise of fascism, not cower and promote excuses they so desperately need to justify their proxy war. We must remain on the correct side of history.

–written by John Parker

John Parker is a leading member of the Socialist Unity Party and a longtime member of PFP. He is the PFP candidate for U.S. Senate in Election 2022."

[Omega21]

Yes, but the point is its still not a blanket rejection of everything "Russian".

Tbf supporting a ban on Tolstoy & co. is just plain russophobia, full stop.

The Jews went through a lot worse, but I don't really remember them being up in arms about blanket banning/removing "German literature".

It's very low IQ, and should be called out as such without excuses, especially considering many of the prominent authors would be disgusted by what's happening now, much like we are.

[Omega21]

This guy is a thing...evidently.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1523364027929272320?s=20&t=WcayDeDofgKTA966...

According to his bio on the "Peace and Freedom Party: California's Feminist Socialist Political Party" website he's currently a candidate in the June primary for US Senate. I'll admit it's a unique way to campaign, but I guess you can't fight the corrupt corporate oligarchy by simply making speeches.

https://www.peaceandfreedom.us/news/elections-campaigns/primary-election-2022-john-parker-for-u-s-senate

Here's his commentary on the war, which is about as brain dead as you'd expect:

https://www.peaceandfreedom.us/positions/pfp-chair-statements/pfp-statements-war-russia-ukraine-nato

"We Must Remain on the Correct Side of History

War drives present avalanches of biased information, making difficult the discernment of reality vs what is simply war propaganda. Our corporate media, as in all war drives, switched gears from seemingly objective reporting to robotic allegiance to one narrative of the U.S. No person or organization wants to lose friends and support taking stands for truth in such an environment.

But if we don’t, who will highlight the alternative media sources in Ukraine reporting a totally different story? Corporate media reruns lies of the Gulf of Tonkin, babies thrown from incubators, etc., to allow, this time, the most dangerous threat to humanity: NATO’s continued expansion. This expansion has nearly doubled NATO in 20 years.

In that time, we’ve seen its aggressive nation-destroying power cause the death of millions, a worldwide refugee crisis and the creation and enabling of terrorist organizations from ISIS to the rise of neo-Nazis now officially in the Ukrainian government. Neo-Nazi military organizations, funded with billions of dollars and training from the U.S. government, led the war crimes against the people of Donbass for the last eight years, killing 14,000.

Last November’s appointment by President Zelensky of Nazi leader Dmitro Yarosh as adviser to Commander of Ukrainian Armies explains why Luhansk and Donetsk, now independent republics, had every right to ask for Russia’s help. And it was also Russia’s right to stop an existential threat on its borders – including the real possibility of a Nazi-led, white supremacist military possessing NATO weaponry.

This war will only stop and not escalate when the U.S. is forced to end the expansion. We must target the root cause of this war – U.S. imperialism – and expose the rise of fascism, not cower and promote excuses they so desperately need to justify their proxy war. We must remain on the correct side of history.

–written by John Parker

John Parker is a leading member of the Socialist Unity Party and a longtime member of PFP. He is the PFP candidate for U.S. Senate in Election 2022."

I am sorry, but no American can beat the Balkan triangle in the game of crazy.

Mustafa Golubić

Following the outbreak of the Balkan Wars, he joined the Chetniks of Vojislav Tankosić. During World War I, he joined the Royal Serbian Army and later visited Russia to gather recruits for the Balkan Front.

In 1920, after allegedly making death threats against Alexander, he relocated to Vienna, where in 1923, he began writing for a Soviet-linked publication. He was later recruited by the Soviets as an agent and carried out assassinations of Soviet adversaries abroad on behalf of the NKVD.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Golubi%C4%87

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A Wagner Group-affiliated Telegram channel is claiming that Russia has lost Snake Island after video and satellite evidence showed a series of expensive losses there in the past few days. Prior to this, but only after the destruction of the Moskva, Russia moved anti-aircraft systems onto the island - presumably, they were hoping to compensate for the lost flagship’s AA capabilities, among other things.

It’s perfectly plausible that the island has been completely abandoned; most of its buildings have been destroyed, and the only people who used to live there full-time were families of the Ukrainian security forces. This doesn’t mean Ukraine can or will retake the island, or that Russia won’t attempt another landing - but it should loosen the Russian naval blockade a bit and strengthen Ukrainian air superiority in the west of the country.

[NOVA Green]

Could have sworn I saw somebody on this thread post Russian propaganda about how they shot down four Ukrainian Fighter Jets, four Ukrainian Choppers and (3) TB2 drones outside of snake island.

Looks like Russia might be doing a bit of "Baghdad Bob" action...

If true might well be a Russian Mi-8 chopper.

Regardless still not a confirmed kill, although it is increasingly appearing probably that Russia has lost both Naval, Air, and Drone superiority over the island...

Honestly it makes the whole Marakov Frigate getting hit story appear more and more plausible after all the recent activity around "Snake Island".

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1523333059348676609?s=20&t=zV-InDf4bS...