Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Looks like a likely target of Ukrainian drones in the near future...

No real camo from satellite images when the skies are clear...

Thinking more defensive in nature considering recent Ukrainian advances on the Kherson Front?

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1509222904688435200?s=20&t=rBEwSVZPI7U4d...

[Storr]

LMAO

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1509276619202043906?s=20&t=AjTCxkFXe8...

[CumbrianLefty]

Militarily doubtful to change the trajectory on the Northern Front IMHO.

Starting to appear more like a full-blown retreat than anything else from that arena...

Yes, even if its well thought out strategy these sorts of things are always risky in a war.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/status/1509498502333837313?s=20&t=Sh0EZHiC...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1509223828001464320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[Astatine]

Tensions in Georgia: Yesterday, the President of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, Anatoliy Bibilov, announced that his government will prepare legal steps to unite South Ossetia with Russia. Bibilov is up for election on 10 April.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has recalled the Georgian ambassador for failing to put up sanctions against Russia, putting the current government of the Georgian Dream (GD) party under enormous pressure. Ukraine/Russia is a very emotional issue in Georgia and - although polling is sparse - definitely sparks strong sentiments among Georgians.
President Salome Zurabishvili, who criticized the government's inaction on the matter in a speech to Parliament, is currently getting sued by GD for alleged violations of the constitution. This might backfire: Zurabishvili who broke with the opposition years ago and was seen as ineffective President until recently, saw a sharp increase in her approval rating due to her stronger stance on Ukraine. 64% of Georgians approve of her (15% disapprove), meanwhile PM Irakli Garibashvili has a mere approval rating of 41% (39% disapprove). Filing lawsuits against a popular President and ranting about how horrible the opposition is cannot be a long-term strategy for the GD in the current climate.

It should be noted that the opposition would obviously benefit from this humiliation of the GD government, and the fact that Zelenskyy was the one who restored the Ukrainian citizenship of UNM's lead figure Mikhail Saakashvili in 2019 and offered him the position of Deputy Prime Minister is noteworthy as well. Saakashvili is currently detained in Georgia and ended his 2nd hunger strike.

GD is in a tough spot: Sanctioning Russia will definitely harm the country right ahead of a possible annexation of South Ossetia and would tank the economy. Continuing the current path humiliates Georgia on the international stage and would be seen as betrayal of important allies among many Georgians. Misha is still considered the worse option for many compared to GD, but the question is: For how long?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1509036026655911936

Pretty much seems to confirm what I suggested a few days back. Russia is not really reducing military activity for diplomatic reasons or even withdrawing from Central Ukraine, they're just regrouping after heavy losses and logistical failures. And they're using "diplomatic concessions" as cover. Perhaps even a strategical move to misslead Ukraine and have their forces moved to Donbas, just for Russia to attack Kyiv later on.

May 9 is important date to keep in mind, as this is very important for Russia and Putin. It's the anniversary of victory over actual Nazis.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that: "Russia will halt active gas contracts if buyers don’t comply with its demand to pay in rubles, President Vladimir Putin says in televised remarks."

[compucomp]

Lavrov visited Beijing before and now he is visiting Delhi. At least the US is staying rhetorically consistent for now, we'll see if US actions back up their words and they reduce their engagement with India, or geopolitics/realpolitik win out and they hypocritically forgive India for this transgression to keep them in the envisioned anti-China alliance. India's actions in response to the conflict are still largely the same as China's, and India is even exploring buying Russian oil in INR to circumvent the SWIFT sanctions.

U.S. Criticizes India on Russia Talks as Lavrov Visits Delhi

The U.S. and Australia criticized India for considering a Russian proposal that would undermine sanctions imposed by America and its allies, showing a deepening rift between the emerging security partners as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Delhi for talks.

“Now is the time to stand on the right side of history, and to stand with the United States and dozens of other countries, standing up for freedom, democracy and sovereignty with the Ukrainian people, and not funding and fueling and aiding President Putin’s war,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told reporters in Washington on Wednesday. She called reports of the arrangement “deeply disappointing,” while adding that she hadn’t seen details.

Dan Tehan, Australia’s trade minister who also spoke at the briefing, said it was important for democracies to work together “to keep the rules-based approach that we’ve had since the second world war.”

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bloomberg reports that: "Russia will halt active gas contracts if buyers don’t comply with its demand to pay in rubles, President Vladimir Putin says in televised remarks."

There's apparently some growing confusion about what Putin had said exactly and maybe more importantly what he had meant with it, since both Scholz and Draghi claim to have been assured that they can continue paying gas in Euro. There's seems be a divide between what Putin says privately (to Scholz and Draghi, for instance) and what he says publicly (on Russian state TV) on the issue, possibly indicating that he continues playing the strongman who won the gas standoff on television while letting gas being paid in Euro slide in practice. This confusion is widespread apparently because after Putin's phone call to Olaf Scholz yesterday Scholz had asked to get Putin's proposals in writing before he agrees to any of it.

We'll know that the gas had stopped flowing when the gas stops flowing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1509541382544924676


https://twitter.com/brother_corvo/status/1509541234515353606

[jaichind]

I think what Putin is talking about is payment in EUR to a Russian bank that is not sanctioned then converts the EUR to RUB.  That way the Russians can say they were paid in RUB and Europeans can say that they paid in EUR.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We’ve heard a ton of contradictory claims about the airbase and towns in the area, but the US usually hasn’t been so clear on what they believe the situation is.

https://www.twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1509553376417173508

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is Spring now. There are, how shall we say, distinctly Scargillian vibes about threatening energy supply at a time of the year when usage is low. This is before we even touch on the small problem that the producer generally needs to sell their product more than the consumer needs to buy it. But he doesn't understand how these things work - he doesn't understand how many things work, really.

[compucomp]

Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

[jaichind]

It is Spring now. There are, how shall we say, distinctly Scargillian vibes about threatening energy supply at a time of the year when usage is low. This is before we even touch on the small problem that the producer generally needs to sell their product more than the consumer needs to buy it. But he doesn't understand how these things work - he doesn't understand how many things work, really.

Any leverage Putin thinks he has does not revolve around consumer heating needs but that European, especially German industry, needs Russian gas for their low-cost power needs.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Poor guys. They would have had time to realise it was the end.

https://www.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1509556792291901443
The first pic was posted as a joke (possibly even in this thread, IIRC) back when it looked like the crew might have escaped the tank, but behind most of the memes about the destruction of the Russian Army is a generation of youth that has been completely betrayed by those they were sent to fight for.

Sometimes I think about a Russian guy I used to know in uni, who said one of the reasons he studied here was to get away from his parents’ pressure to join the army (he feared he’d get deployed in Chechnya). I hope he stayed out, but most wouldn’t have been so lucky to begin with.

[jaichind]

Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

I was thinking the same thing when I read about Germany going to Qatar to buy LNG.  I thought the best way for Qatar to make a bunch of money without any work is to outsource the gas transport to Russia to send the gas to Germany via Nord Stream II and then Qatar pays Russia for the gas they sent to Germany.

[Lord Halifax]

Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

I was thinking the same thing when I read about Germany going to Qatar to buy LNG.  I thought the best way for Qatar to make a bunch of money without any work is to outsource the gas transport to Russia to send the gas to Germany via Nord Stream II and then Qatar pays Russia for the gas they sent to Germany.

I doubt Qatar would do something so extremely provocative with the FIFA World Cup coming up, it's the sort of thing that would put massive pressure on major European football associations to boycott the tournament.

[jaichind]

Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

I was thinking the same thing when I read about Germany going to Qatar to buy LNG.  I thought the best way for Qatar to make a bunch of money without any work is to outsource the gas transport to Russia to send the gas to Germany via Nord Stream II and then Qatar pays Russia for the gas they sent to Germany.

I doubt Qatar would do something so extremely provocative with the FIFA World Cup coming up, it's the sort of thing that would put massive pressure on major European football associations to boycott the tournament.

Of course not.  I thought of that idea more as a joke as clearly from a financial point of view it is one of the easiest ways to make money ever.  Then of course we have politics that get in the way of making the most money.

[Storr]

Did you know the Normandy landings were just a diversion?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1509515577357967367?s=20&t=0SiENhvtnYW...

[Helsinkian]

Did you know the Normandy landings were just a diversion?

Hitler actually thought that they were a diversion and that there would be an even larger landing near Calais. That's why he kept many of his divisions away from Normandy during the first days of the battle.

[Storr]

Very good news!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509582842308837384?s=20&t=u3tcWIU...

[Storr]

Depressing...

Danlia Sergeyevich Maloletkov
19 years 7 months and 9 days old (assuming this was from what is now yesterday in Ukraine).

from Sloboda Cheremukhovaya, Republic of Tatarstan. Population 436.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1509136674818863105?s=20&t=fZx2pEk6ou8i...

Vladimir Vasilyevich Belomestnov born April 14th, 2003

18 years 11 months and 7 days (killed on March 21st). The tweet claims he was a conscript, but the VK post says he was "under a contract". The Russian military is known to coerce and pressure conscripts to sign contracts as soon as six months into their year long mandatory term of service.

from Etytey, Zabaykalsky Krai. Population 285.

In addition to disproportionate ethic non-Russians deaths, I've noticed a large proportion of Russian soldiers killed are from very rural areas. I assume lack of opportunity, lack of resources/connections to avoid service, and poverty are factors leading to this, just as with ethnic minorities.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1509440084617142277?s=20&t=bynUwUKcZ-5...

[Person Man]

Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

I was thinking the same thing when I read about Germany going to Qatar to buy LNG.  I thought the best way for Qatar to make a bunch of money without any work is to outsource the gas transport to Russia to send the gas to Germany via Nord Stream II and then Qatar pays Russia for the gas they sent to Germany.

I doubt Qatar would do something so extremely provocative with the FIFA World Cup coming up, it's the sort of thing that would put massive pressure on major European football associations to boycott the tournament.

Of course not.  I thought of that idea more as a joke as clearly from a financial point of view it is one of the easiest ways to make money ever.  Then of course we have politics that get in the way of making the most money.

Think of being mindful of the politics as a long term investment then.