Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

For those interested in seeing the Russian side of the wartime propaganda:

This account has been showing a lot of surrendering UA fighters as well as a lot of destroyed/captured UA equipment.

Good to follow in order to have a balanced view of the battlefield

https://twitter.com/tounkirine/status/1508632243610308613

[Oryxslayer]

The valuable thing about formally ceding Crimea and part of the Donbass is that it allows Putin to spin this as a victory--"look at what we did"--despite Russia actually handling the war quite poorly. Being able to talk about this as a win for Russia makes peace a lot more plausible.

Hence the phrase "pyrrhic victory".

I have long thought that this war would end with the resolution of the internationally unanswered frozen conflicts of 2014 - initially in favor of Moscow but since the first 24 hours something more mutually acceptable. Putin needs something he can spin as a win and its underdiscussed but Ukraine needs to resolve its territorial issues to have a serious chance at EU membership - which is the real goal, not NATO.

Therefore, we seem to be transitioning to a phase where success in the Donbass clearly gives one side or another leverage in negotiating for that area. Moscow certainly sees that, which is why their more nebulous total integration goals have been abandoned in the face of failure.

[Storr]

For those interested in seeing the Russian side of the wartime propaganda:

This account has been showing a lot of surrendering UA fighters as well as a lot of destroyed/captured UA equipment.

Good to follow in order to have a balanced view of the battlefield

https://twitter.com/tounkirine/status/1508632243610308613

The same account already posted the video on the 26th.

(Both sides have recycled footage, occasionally even years old. But, from my perspective I've seen the tactic more frequently employed by pro-Russian accounts.)

https://twitter.com/tounkirine/status/1507672155416367104?s=20&t=3c8H5Noc6I4...

[DaleCooper]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I'm not so sure about this. In principle, I agree that I hate the idea of conceding anything to Putin, but I think the best way to put an end to this nightmare is to get Russia out of Ukraine and then immediately regroup and rearm Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. A Ukraine with a military that is armed to the teeth with western military tech (especially its air force) and prepared around the clock for an invasion from its uncivilized neighbor, similar to South Korea, would be impossible for Russia to defeat in the future. The biggest takeaway from this is that Russia's military is an absolutely joke, incapable of conquering anything. A prepared Ukraine will be able to exist just fine. It doesn't even need to be part of NATO because Russia sucks so much.

[DaleCooper]

Isn't it still possible - if not likely - Russia just pretends to negotiate and reduce miltary action to reorganize their military? And kind of reduce high alert in Ukraine before launching another push? I just don't believe a single word from Russia. Putler more than once broke his word. He and his enablers have zero credibility.

Yes, but a reorganized Russian military is still sh-t, and it will be going up against a prepared Ukraine this time. As much as I have grown to admire Zelensky's bravery, it still must be acknowledged that Ukraine was not properly prepared even though this invasion was staring them in the face for months. That almost certainly won't be the case if Russia attempts this again.

[jaichind]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I believe in might makes right and right of conquest so I really do not care about this UN charter.  I do think if the deal involves Ukraine giving up the Donetsk area is a bad idea.  It is clearly bad for Ukraine but I believe it is also bad for Russia because it creates a revanchist Ukraine.  If Putin is determined to take over that area he is better off completely overrunning Eastern Ukraine and leaving a rump Catholic Western Ukraine that is too weak to be a future threat.  By taking over the Donetsk area but leaving Ukraine intact all that means is that decades in the future in a possible period of temporary Russian weakness Ukraine will join an anti-Russian alliance to get back Donetsk.  Putin is much better off giving back Donetsk and trading that in for reversing de-Russification in Ukraine.  What Putin/Russia seems to be doing is very short-sighted in my view if they do grab Donetsk.

What does "reversing de-Russification in Ukraine" actually mean?

If it means "protecting" the Russian language, that reminds me as to what happened to the German language in the US after WWI. It "died," almost instantly. It was not by treaty, or by law, it happened organically. It was no longer a positive status symbol to embrace German culture. It became a source of embarrassment and shame and social ostracization.

I was thinking of Russia has a status in Ukraine similar to French in Canada.  I am fairly majoritarian so I totally get where Ukraine is coming from.  On PRC, for example, I always objected to the various CCP pampering of various ethnic minorities by trying to preserve some of their languages when I always felt that we should just get going with Sinicization.   Ürümqi for example used to be called 迪化 hut the CCP changed it to a Turkified 烏魯木齊.   I still hope one day it can be changed back.  Anyway, this is mostly about power.  If the PRC had a Turkic state to its Western border with a population of 4 billion I would also advise the PRC to preserve and even promote the Uyghur language in Sinkiang out of pure power politic realities.

[Mopsus]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I'm not so sure about this. In principle, I agree that I hate the idea of conceding anything to Putin, but I think the best way to put an end to this nightmare is to get Russia out of Ukraine and then immediately regroup and rearm Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. A Ukraine with a military that is armed to the teeth with western military tech (especially its air force) and prepared around the clock for an invasion from its uncivilized neighbor, similar to South Korea, would be impossible for Russia to defeat in the future. The biggest takeaway from this is that Russia's military is an absolutely joke, incapable of conquering anything. A prepared Ukraine will be able to exist just fine. It doesn't even need to be part of NATO because Russia sucks so much.

At this point I think the best deal the Ukrainians can hope for is formal cession of those lands already occupied by Russia on 2/23 plus official neutrality regarding NATO, in exchange for immediate accession to the EU, a Marshal Plan style aid package from the West, and maxed-out defensive war capabilities.

[Omega21]

Current condition in Mariupol according to the Russian side. 70-80% of Mariupol proper is now under Russian control.

Independent OSINT enthusiasts did not find much contradicting evidence to dispute the claims, so they do seem to be fairly realistic.

[Storr]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I'm not so sure about this. In principle, I agree that I hate the idea of conceding anything to Putin, but I think the best way to put an end to this nightmare is to get Russia out of Ukraine and then immediately regroup and rearm Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. A Ukraine with a military that is armed to the teeth with western military tech (especially its air force) and prepared around the clock for an invasion from its uncivilized neighbor, similar to South Korea, would be impossible for Russia to defeat in the future. The biggest takeaway from this is that Russia's military is an absolutely joke, incapable of conquering anything. A prepared Ukraine will be able to exist just fine. It doesn't even need to be part of NATO because Russia sucks so much.

I can see Zelensky conceding minor(ish) demands. Such as making Russian an official minority or regional language, making a commitment to not station foreign nuclear or "offensive missile weapons" (a nebulous term Russia uses) in Ukraine, or even giving up pursuing NATO membership.

But, under no circumstances will Ukraine give up the Donbass. There's a reason Ukrainian officials have repeatedly insisted Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable. Zelensky would immediately lose all popularity and credibility with the Ukrainian public.

[Torie]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I believe in might makes right and right of conquest so I really do not care about this UN charter.  I do think if the deal involves Ukraine giving up the Donetsk area is a bad idea.  It is clearly bad for Ukraine but I believe it is also bad for Russia because it creates a revanchist Ukraine.  If Putin is determined to take over that area he is better off completely overrunning Eastern Ukraine and leaving a rump Catholic Western Ukraine that is too weak to be a future threat.  By taking over the Donetsk area but leaving Ukraine intact all that means is that decades in the future in a possible period of temporary Russian weakness Ukraine will join an anti-Russian alliance to get back Donetsk.  Putin is much better off giving back Donetsk and trading that in for reversing de-Russification in Ukraine.  What Putin/Russia seems to be doing is very short-sighted in my view if they do grab Donetsk.

What does "reversing de-Russification in Ukraine" actually mean?

If it means "protecting" the Russian language, that reminds me as to what happened to the German language in the US after WWI. It "died," almost instantly. It was not by treaty, or by law, it happened organically. It was no longer a positive status symbol to embrace German culture. It became a source of embarrassment and shame and social ostracization.

I was thinking of Russia has a status in Ukraine similar to French in Canada.  I am fairly majoritarian so I totally get where Ukraine is coming from.  On PRC, for example, I always objected to the various CCP pampering of various ethnic minorities by trying to preserve some of their languages when I always felt that we should just get going with Sinicization.   Ürümqi for example used to be called 迪化 hut the CCP changed it to a Turkified 烏魯木齊.   I still hope one day it can be changed back.  Anyway, this is mostly about power.  If the PRC had a Turkic state to its Western border with a population of 4 billion I would also advise the PRC to preserve and even promote the Uyghur language in Sinkiang out of pure power politic realities.

Just to be clear, unlike the French speakers in Quebec, I don't think most Ukrainians will want to speak Russian anymore, even those who are fluent in Russian or as to whom Russian is a first language. It is also a bad idea strategically, since just like Hitler did, an area with Russian speakers provides an excuse however ersatz for Russia to have a most unhealthy and unwanted (not by not only non-Russian speakers by also Russian speakers now) marsupial relationship with with such areas. That is what Russia really lost that it will not be able to get back. It killed off any desire by those in Ukraine to have a cultural identity or affinity with Russia. Russia and all that it is about is now perceived as a very bad place on a visceral level.

That is my perception anyway. And that is why all this real-politick stuff that one learns in international relations classes is so misplaced here. It is much deeper than that.

[Omega21]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I'm not so sure about this. In principle, I agree that I hate the idea of conceding anything to Putin, but I think the best way to put an end to this nightmare is to get Russia out of Ukraine and then immediately regroup and rearm Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. A Ukraine with a military that is armed to the teeth with western military tech (especially its air force) and prepared around the clock for an invasion from its uncivilized neighbor, similar to South Korea, would be impossible for Russia to defeat in the future. The biggest takeaway from this is that Russia's military is an absolutely joke, incapable of conquering anything. A prepared Ukraine will be able to exist just fine. It doesn't even need to be part of NATO because Russia sucks so much.

I can see Zelensky conceding minor(ish) demands. Such as making Russian an official minority or regional language, making a commitment to not station foreign nuclear or "offensive missile weapons" (a nebulous term Russia uses) in Ukraine, or even giving up pursuing NATO membership.

But, under no circumstances will Ukraine give up the Donbass. There's a reason Ukrainian officials have repeatedly insisted Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable. Zelensky would immediately lose all popularity with the Ukrainian public.

But they have already given up the Donbas... Take a look at the map above, all that is left of a UA Donbas is a few neighborhoods of Mariupol + small villages & towns.

As Zelensky himself said:

Zelenskyy said a peace deal would not be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals. He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a “compromise” over the eastern Donbas region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014.

My thoughts on the (i)morality and who the perpetrator of this war are very clear, but that does not mean I will give into unrealistic expectations.

This war is, at the moment, a very bloody, phyric victory for Russia, but a victory nonetheless. They control a large part of Ukraine, and giving all of it up just for "neutrality" does not make any sense from their perspective.

[2952-0-0]

I was thinking of Russia has a status in Ukraine similar to French in Canada.  I am fairly majoritarian so I totally get where Ukraine is coming from.

That comparison is in complete denial of the war's impact. If France tried to conquer Canada on the pretext of protecting French-speakers, and bombed cities like Montreal and Sherbrooke into rubble, then the Quebecois people would have given up their language overnight.

The Russian language itself has become associated with the enemy. Even places named after Russian historical figures such as Pushkin and Katherine are earmarked for renaming. Ukrainians who were speaking Russian before the war switched overnight to Ukrainian, to show their loyalty to the Ukrainian nation. Putin declared that he would protect Russian-speakers wherever they are, and the Russian-speaking cities of Kharkiv and Mariupol discovered what that "protection" actually meant. So, the only way for the people of these cities to protect themselves from that "protection" is to stop speaking Russian.

[Storr]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I'm not so sure about this. In principle, I agree that I hate the idea of conceding anything to Putin, but I think the best way to put an end to this nightmare is to get Russia out of Ukraine and then immediately regroup and rearm Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. A Ukraine with a military that is armed to the teeth with western military tech (especially its air force) and prepared around the clock for an invasion from its uncivilized neighbor, similar to South Korea, would be impossible for Russia to defeat in the future. The biggest takeaway from this is that Russia's military is an absolutely joke, incapable of conquering anything. A prepared Ukraine will be able to exist just fine. It doesn't even need to be part of NATO because Russia sucks so much.

I can see Zelensky conceding minor(ish) demands. Such as making Russian an official minority or regional language, making a commitment to not station foreign nuclear or "offensive missile weapons" (a nebulous term Russia uses) in Ukraine, or even giving up pursuing NATO membership.

But, under no circumstances will Ukraine give up the Donbass. There's a reason Ukrainian officials have repeatedly insisted Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable. Zelensky would immediately lose all popularity with the Ukrainian public.

But they have already given up the Donbas... Take a look at the map above, all that is left of a UA Donbas is a few neighborhoods of Mariupol + small villages & towns.

As Zelensky himself said:

Zelenskyy said a peace deal would not be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals. He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a “compromise” over the eastern Donbas region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014.

Ukraine's position since 2014 has been that separatist held areas of Luhansk and Donetsk are "temporarily occupied" and non-recognition of the LPR and DPR.

By "giving up the Donbass", I meant Ukraine agreeing to formally cede their claims/rights to Luhansk and Donetsk as part of a ceasefire or peace agreement, likely through recognition of LPR and DPR independence.  I did not mean Ukraine losing physical (military and civil) control over the regions during conflict.

I feel the mostly likely outcome will be similar to the Winter War. A result where multiple concessions are given to the Russians, but the defending state keeps its pre-war government and independence.

[Torie]

Blinkin is as skeptical as I am that peace is breaking out:

"The U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, cast doubt on Russia’s pledge to reduce hostilities. “There is what Russia says and there’s what Russia does,” he said during a diplomatic trip to Morocco. “We’re focused on the latter. And what Russia is doing is the continued brutalization of Ukraine and its people and that continues as we speak.”

[WMS]

As usual, I look for things that haven’t been mentioned yet to post.

First, the International Red Cross has likely once again (see Haiti) engaged in questionable practices, this time aiding and abetting Russia’s forced deportations of Ukrainians into Russia:
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1507804812586500112?s=21&t=PP5AEBLN1Bq-...

Second, Russia and China are proclaiming the Russia-China-India axis opposing the West, but India is not on board with that:
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1507722499747987459?s=21&t=K68rAswnac...

Third, China is currently establishing indoctrination of Russian propaganda on Ukraine in their education system:
https://twitter.com/polijunkie_aus/status/1507443852407623680?s=21&t=ZmZT7W9...

Finally, more Russian war crimes in Mariupol:
https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1507975405571121160?s=21&t=YgtJ53d_3Dlp...

There’s much, much, more out there about Russian war crimes…

[rc18]

Yeah, no indication this is the beginning of a ceasefire in the slightest. Quite the opposite.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1508841966490071040?s=20&t=XVHlBfgi4...

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1508842565990289412?s=20&t=7HS9LGtZ_...

[WMS]

As usual, I look for things that haven’t been mentioned yet to post.

...

Second, Russia and China are proclaiming the Russia-China-India axis opposing the West, but India is not on board with that:
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1507722499747987459?s=21&t=K68rAswnaceFGk2lPs8MpA

Third, China is currently establishing indoctrination of Russian propaganda on Ukraine in their education system:
https://twitter.com/polijunkie_aus/status/1507443852407623680?s=21&t=ZmZT7W9I0fwFbyPhghGBoA

...

Ukraine needed to be  "taught a lesson"?

I guess that lesson is the Russian military is significantly weaker than propagandized and has fundamental flaws.
 
https://twitter.com/dikaioslin/status/1507893928959250433?s=20&t=rmovwq1rCqz...

Well China has always been one for dominating and subjugating its neighbors since time immemorial so supporting Russia, while monstrous, is consistent with its history, if not with its supposed opposition to intervening in the internal affairs of other countries.

And it’s not like Chinese students are going to be taught anything but propaganda, so they will doubtless continue to believe that Russia stronk and all that.

[Cashew]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

Oh no not the UN. Im sure Zenensky is losing sleep at night thinking about the possibility of Nigeria trying to annex Cameroon.

[Storr]

Shocking news:

https://twitter.com/snowmanomics/status/1508852554284863505?s=20&t=_SC7yqBWf...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1508788564418605058
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1508061781536780290
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508659205527457793
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508659206890606594

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1508788564418605058
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1508061781536780290
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508659205527457793
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508659206890606594

Great, Vladimir Putin's Jihad.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I believe in might makes right and right of conquest so I really do not care about this UN charter.  I do think if the deal involves Ukraine giving up the Donetsk area is a bad idea.  It is clearly bad for Ukraine but I believe it is also bad for Russia because it creates a revanchist Ukraine.  If Putin is determined to take over that area he is better off completely overrunning Eastern Ukraine and leaving a rump Catholic Western Ukraine that is too weak to be a future threat.  By taking over the Donetsk area but leaving Ukraine intact all that means is that decades in the future in a possible period of temporary Russian weakness Ukraine will join an anti-Russian alliance to get back Donetsk.  Putin is much better off giving back Donetsk and trading that in for reversing de-Russification in Ukraine.  What Putin/Russia seems to be doing is very short-sighted in my view if they do grab Donetsk.

What does "reversing de-Russification in Ukraine" actually mean?

If it means "protecting" the Russian language, that reminds me as to what happened to the German language in the US after WWI. It "died," almost instantly. It was not by treaty, or by law, it happened organically. It was no longer a positive status symbol to embrace German culture. It became a source of embarrassment and shame and social ostracization.

I was thinking of Russia has a status in Ukraine similar to French in Canada.  I am fairly majoritarian so I totally get where Ukraine is coming from.  On PRC, for example, I always objected to the various CCP pampering of various ethnic minorities by trying to preserve some of their languages when I always felt that we should just get going with Sinicization.   Ürümqi for example used to be called 迪化 hut the CCP changed it to a Turkified 烏魯木齊.   I still hope one day it can be changed back.  Anyway, this is mostly about power.  If the PRC had a Turkic state to its Western border with a population of 4 billion I would also advise the PRC to preserve and even promote the Uyghur language in Sinkiang out of pure power politic realities.

Just to be clear, unlike the French speakers in Quebec, I don't think most Ukrainians will want to speak Russian anymore, even those who are fluent in Russian or as to whom Russian is a first language. It is also a bad idea strategically, since just like Hitler did, an area with Russian speakers provides an excuse however ersatz for Russia to have a most unhealthy and unwanted (not by not only non-Russian speakers by also Russian speakers now) marsupial relationship with with such areas. That is what Russia really lost that it will not be able to get back. It killed off any desire by those in Ukraine to have a cultural identity or affinity with Russia. Russia and all that it is about is now perceived as a very bad place on a visceral level.

That is my perception anyway. And that is why all this real-politick stuff that one learns in international relations classes is so misplaced here. It is much deeper than that.

Actually even in my beginner IR classes we went far beyond the “realpolitik” and into frameworks such as constructivism and critical theory that aligns more with what you are saying. Maybe curriculum has changed since you were in university, or maybe I just had an awesome professor.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A hero returns home: https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-snake-island-border-guard-160358031.html

[Storr]

The Antonovsky Bridge near Kherson is the only span across the Dnieper for roughly 60 miles, from the Kakhova Hydroelectric Power Plant to the mouth of the Dnieper River. I'm sure the Russians are simply conducting a routine safety inspection.

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1508862389000847364?s=20&t=plcJpMI__nTKW...

[Splash]

Allegedly, a munitions dump exploded in Belgorod, Russia. There are unconfirmed reports that a Ukrainian missile struck it but an accident resulting from the mishandling of the ammo may just be as likely.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1508874225393754114