Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DaleCooper]

Zelensky just sacked two of his Senior national security officials...

Wonder what the backstory was here?

He announced he had sacked two senior members of the Ukrainian national security service on the grounds they were “traitors”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60949706

Purely speculation here, but I wonder if it has something to do with the lead-up to the invasion when there seemed to be a lot of confusion high up in Ukraine's leadership about whether or not there would even be an invasion.

Zelensky himself was playing it down until a few days before it happened.

Oh yeah, and it's because of that that I've been one of the few people who hasn't been too quick to idolize him, as much as I have admired his bravery over these past few weeks.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but if he was doing that because he was being fed duff information by certain people then it does rather alter things doesn't it?

[DaleCooper]

Yes, but if he was doing that because he was being fed duff information by certain people then it does rather alter things doesn't it?

That's why I was wondering if that was the reason for the firing.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Gazprom Starts Telling Clients How to Pay for Gas in Rubles.  "The Kremlin said on Thursday that European buyers would need to have two accounts, one in euros and one in rubles, and that Gazprombank would be responsible for making the foreign exchange conversion."

It seems Russia will go with the second Putin and compromise workflow of payment in EUR but immediate conversion into RUB ASAP.

I think the core issue is this: The purpose of Russia exporting gas is to be able to import things or else why would Russia export gas for a piece of paper known as EUR currency if not to be able to import stuff from the Eurozone.  Now Russia is saying they do not plan to import as much from Eurozone and they plan to take their business elsewhere (most likely PRC and perhaps India).

[GoTfan]

Zelensky just sacked two of his Senior national security officials...

Wonder what the backstory was here?

He announced he had sacked two senior members of the Ukrainian national security service on the grounds they were “traitors”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60949706

Purely speculation here, but I wonder if it has something to do with the lead-up to the invasion when there seemed to be a lot of confusion high up in Ukraine's leadership about whether or not there would even be an invasion.

Zelensky himself was playing it down until a few days before it happened.

There's some speculation that he was preparing for it on the quiet while downplaying it publicly to try and fool the Russians, but don't quote me on that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bloomberg reports that Gazprom Starts Telling Clients How to Pay for Gas in Rubles.  "The Kremlin said on Thursday that European buyers would need to have two accounts, one in euros and one in rubles, and that Gazprombank would be responsible for making the foreign exchange conversion."

It seems Russia will go with the second Putin and compromise workflow of payment in EUR but immediate conversion into RUB ASAP.

I think the core issue is this: The purpose of Russia exporting gas is to be able to import things or else why would Russia export gas for a piece of paper known as EUR currency if not to be able to import stuff from the Eurozone.  Now Russia is saying they do not plan to import as much from Eurozone and they plan to take their business elsewhere (most likely PRC and perhaps India).

My gas is produced via power-to-gas (using wind power) on site here in Germany, although I understand my provider doesn't take any new costumers right now given their capacities are maxed out in the current situation. So long, suckers.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Gazprom Starts Telling Clients How to Pay for Gas in Rubles.  "The Kremlin said on Thursday that European buyers would need to have two accounts, one in euros and one in rubles, and that Gazprombank would be responsible for making the foreign exchange conversion."

It seems Russia will go with the second Putin and compromise workflow of payment in EUR but immediate conversion into RUB ASAP.

I think the core issue is this: The purpose of Russia exporting gas is to be able to import things or else why would Russia export gas for a piece of paper known as EUR currency if not to be able to import stuff from the Eurozone.  Now Russia is saying they do not plan to import as much from Eurozone and they plan to take their business elsewhere (most likely PRC and perhaps India).

My gas is produced via power-to-gas (using wind power) on site here in Germany, although I understand my provider doesn't take any new costumers right now given their capacities are maxed out in the current situation. So long, suckers.

I think the main concern in Germany is not consumer users of gas which is going down anyway as the temperature rises.  It is mostly about German industrial competitiveness as it relates to their ability to consumer power at low prices.  It is very possible and likely German industry can sustain with higher power costs but on the short run it will hit their competitiveness. 

[ugabug]

Bruh moment.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509754010160574467?s=20&t=MXD7z1s...

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1509752229900828673?s=20&t=fpvlIPru1FXv...

Come now doesn't Ukraine understand the "special military operation" is supposed to be in Ukraine not Russia.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

There is good and bad for Putin in this.
The good is that he can accuse the West of directly being responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
The bad is that he now is at risk of being seen as weak.
I suspect that the latter outweighs the former, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a rally-around-the-flag effect if he plays this well (far from a given, of course).

[thumb21]

The siege of Chernihiv has been broken and the Ukrainians have made major advances near Kyiv:



Yellow: Settlements recaptured yesterday
Blue: Settlements recaptured today

Source: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972

[Hindsight was 2020]

The siege of Chernihiv has been broken and the Ukrainians have made major advances near Kyiv:



Yellow: Settlements recaptured yesterday
Blue: Settlements recaptured today

Source: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972

Wow I couldn’t open the link at first and thought it was an April Fools joke but it’s true multiple sources on Twitter are confirming the lifting of the siege 😱
https://mobile.twitter.com/Independent/status/1509815942515245097

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

There is good and bad for Putin in this.
The good is that he can accuse the West of directly being responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
The bad is that he now is at risk of being seen as weak.
I suspect that the latter outweighs the former, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a rally-around-the-flag effect if he plays this well (far from a given, of course).

I’m kind of wondering if this is like Ukraine’s “Doolittle Raid.” Attacking this oil depot doesn’t do much, but it sends a message that we can get you if we really try and want to.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German defence ministry appoves the delivery of 56 (some sources say 58) BMP-1 armored personnel carriers (also known as PbV-501) of the former East German army from the Czech Republic to Ukraine:

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-bundesregierung-genehmigt-lieferung-von-ddr-schuetzenpanzern-a-0589b5f0-915c-416b-890b-44b8bcd899e8


https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1509874252387962884


Downside is that these older vehices are not really in fighting condition right now and need to be refurbished first before shipment to Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509879636989251584

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

There is good and bad for Putin in this.
The good is that he can accuse the West of directly being responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
The bad is that he now is at risk of being seen as weak.
I suspect that the latter outweighs the former, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a rally-around-the-flag effect if he plays this well (far from a given, of course).

I’m kind of wondering if this is like Ukraine’s “Doolittle Raid.” Attacking this oil depot doesn’t do much, but it sends a message that we can get you if we really try and want to.

That's a good comparison.
The problem for Ukraine is if Putin can turn that into getting the public more mobilized in his favor (turning their support from passive to active).
Ukraine would be well-advised to generally stay on Ukrainian soil, imo.

[Logical]

Top tier April Fools joke from Ukraine. ))
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1509866278009376768

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

There is good and bad for Putin in this.
The good is that he can accuse the West of directly being responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
The bad is that he now is at risk of being seen as weak.
I suspect that the latter outweighs the former, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a rally-around-the-flag effect if he plays this well (far from a given, of course).

I’m kind of wondering if this is like Ukraine’s “Doolittle Raid.” Attacking this oil depot doesn’t do much, but it sends a message that we can get you if we really try and want to.

That's a good comparison.
The problem for Ukraine is if Putin can turn that into getting the public more mobilized in his favor (turning their support from passive to active).
Ukraine would be well-advised to generally stay on Ukrainian soil, imo.

That’s kind of my thought. It’s high-risk, high reward. It could anger Russian people into thinking “wait, I thought we were winning? They must be lying!” And lead to more anti war protests. On the other hand, obviously it could just strengthen Russia’s resolve and be spun as a win.

[Torie]

1. Putin announces a special operation into Ukraine.
2. It seems as time goes on that one thing that makes the operation "special" is that it is unusually large in scale.
3. Another thing that makes it special is that it seems to be taking a long time. The Nazis seem well entrenched and have done a good job in brainwashing the populace.
4. 5 long weeks into the operation, Nazi helicopters drop some bombs on a tank farm 20 miles inside Russia.
5. How dare Nazi Ukraine attack peaceful mother Russia in that way! The special operation was a fail! It's time to declare war! Where is the nearest enlistment station!?
6. Obviously Putin attacked the tank farm to rally his nation.

[Storr]

The Ukrainian general staff reports the Russians have taken Izyum.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1509861077252808706?s=20&t=rNLObf...

https://twitter.com/mil_in_ua/status/1509858207732322325?s=20&t=rNLObfoYQtM4...

[Middle-aged Europe]

And again people are wondering what the hell this means, whether it is a prelude to a Russian gas embargo or just intended to scare people by simulating the prelude to a gas embargo.


https://twitter.com/cleanenergywire/status/1509888784502034434

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's pretty clear that the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is over* and that the Russians have decisively lost. One battle does not a war make, but this is significant.

_{*If the capital comes under assault again then it would be a new battle.}

[Hindsight was 2020]

Donbas may be lost if Izium has fallen.

Nothing is lost. Ukraine will drive the invaders out out Donbas 🇺🇦 😎

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Donbas may be lost if Izium has fallen.

That’s not an “if”. The Ukrainian military has admitted it.

[urutzizu]

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1659850/holocaust-memorial-in-lithuania-defaced-with-symbols-of-russia-s-war-in-ukraine

Holocaust memorial in Vilnius desecrated with Z symbols and other support for Russian Aggressor. How is this possible? I thought that it was the evil anti-Russian Baltic nationalists that were supposed to be the Nazis?!

Time to unleash the full force of the state against Z and those using it.