Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

UK DefSec Ben Wallace claimed yesterday (after a meeting) that countries would be sending armoured vehicles, artillery and the relevant ammunition to Ukraine (among other things). His claims about military aid have generally been more credible than American MiG/SAM hype, and given what happened after his announcement, I am going to follow his decisions a bit closer from now on.

Subsequently, Australia promised to send four (relatively simple) Bushmaster armoured cars and “look at what else was available in Europe”. Today, Germany allowed this to happen:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1509852050385154059
This is a Czechoslovakian variant of the BMP-1, an old infantry fighting vehicle that Ukraine and Russia still use. Four similar vehicles were apparently snuck in by the Slovaks earlier in the war, but this is the first significant delivery of heavy weaponry to Ukraine that wasn’t purchased prior to the start of the fighting. Expect more as Ukraine attempts to go on counteroffensives.

Edit: Spiegel reports the vehicles will need to be repaired for a few weeks before delivery, but the political shift is still significant and Ukraine can use its existing capacity differently with the knowledge that a little bit more is on the way.

[sting in the rafters]

That's a good comparison.
The problem for Ukraine is if Putin can turn that into getting the public more mobilized in his favor (turning their support from passive to active).
Ukraine would be well-advised to generally stay on Ukrainian soil, imo.

Afghan rebels did raids on Soviet supply lines in the 80s. South Korea counter-invaded the DPRK in the 6/25 war. AIUI, retaliation after repelling an illegal invasion is internationally accepted as fair game.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That's a good comparison.
The problem for Ukraine is if Putin can turn that into getting the public more mobilized in his favor (turning their support from passive to active).
Ukraine would be well-advised to generally stay on Ukrainian soil, imo.

Afghan rebels did raids on Soviet supply lines in the 80s. South Korea counter-invaded the DPRK in the 6/25 war. AIUI, retaliation after repelling an illegal invasion is internationally accepted as fair game.

Internationally accepted, yes. But the Russian people might take it differently.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

Of course they don't. They think it's a special military operation and not a war.

[jaichind]

India becoming the center of diplomatic activity since the conflict started which places India as the swing great power of the current and most likely future geopolitical conflict.

[Person Man]

India becoming the center of diplomatic activity since the conflict started which places India as the swing great power of the current and most likely future geopolitical conflict.

India, the ultimate swing state?

[compucomp]

India becoming the center of diplomatic activity since the conflict started which places India as the swing great power of the current and most likely future geopolitical conflict.

I think the Indians have played this well so far. They're doing a good job of playing both sides taking advantage of the fact that they could credibly join either side, unlike China for whom it would be a craven surrender to join the West. I disagree with the (Western) news articles that say India is put in a tough spot by Russia, on the contrary, India is putting the West, particularly the USA in a tough spot. The USA has to choose between making a stand on principle and ruin its decades long plans of using India to fight China, or bowing to geopolitics and accommodating India, and thus losing its moral credibility on the issue and handing China a win.

[Torie]

I will remember this day, April 1, 2022, as the first time I read in black and white that India was a "great power." Given its author, I have every confidence that it does not have any jocular intent whatsoever.

I need to tell Dan that if only he can throw a party in Samoa and get the right foreign ministers to attend  for fun and frolic, it too can savor the prospect of being a swing great power.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509925712635088899
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509928906513653765

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1509587852409151492

[Logical]

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kazakhstan has broken with Russia and won’t recognize Crimea or Donbas as Russian
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1509916004645748739

[Logical]

This is the most amazing video I have seen this year
https://twitter.com/zanyfen/status/1509930976687890446

[walleye26]

On my drive from Wisconsin Dells to Madison (about 40 miles) today I saw like 5 cars with Ukrainian flags on it, and several businesses in Sun Prairie had Ukrainian flags and banners.

[Storr]

This is the most amazing video I have seen this year
https://twitter.com/zanyfen/status/1509930976687890446

Ridiculous as the video is, we shouldn’t start hating Russian culture or people. Most Russians living abroad are anti-Putin anyway. The issue is the Russian government and society. There’s plenty to hate there, just look at any Russian TV unhinged rant clips on twitter

[Storr]

This is the most amazing video I have seen this year
https://twitter.com/zanyfen/status/1509930976687890446

Ridiculous as the video is, we shouldn’t start hating Russian culture or people. Most Russians living abroad are anti-Putin anyway. The issue is the Russian government and society. There’s plenty to hate there, just look at any Russian TV unhinged rant clips on twitter

Example: Bro, you invaded Ukraine. The obvious insinuation is that the US was behind Euromaidan. Reminder, the Ukrainian parliament impeached Yanukovych and he left the country on February 22, 2014. It was not a somehow a CIA manufactured coup. Russian media is the worst.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1509899126036705298?s=20&t=-a1pYEJ5mIvI...

[Storr]

 The whole of the Donbass not already occupied by Russians is going deal with Mariupol levels of destruction, especially if Ukrainian forces get cut off.

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1509994411106652171?s=20&t=-a1pYEJ5mIvIe...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ukraine is denying they were responsible for the helicopter attack.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is the most amazing video I have seen this year
https://twitter.com/zanyfen/status/1509930976687890446

Ridiculous as the video is, we shouldn’t start hating Russian culture or people. Most Russians living abroad are anti-Putin anyway. The issue is the Russian government and society. There’s plenty to hate there, just look at any Russian TV unhinged rant clips on twitter

Example: Bro, you invaded Ukraine. The obvious insinuation is that the US was behind Euromaidan. Reminder, the Ukrainian parliament impeached Yanukovych and he left the country on February 22, 2014. It was not a somehow a CIA manufactured coup. Russian media is the worst.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1509899126036705298?s=20&t=-a1pYEJ5mIvI...

The Power of PROJECTION.

[Storr]

Honestly, this is pretty sad. I don't know how much of this is due to the Russian military not having the resources or being unable to recover bodies versus lack of care. In WWII the Soviets buried their dead in mass graves. I'm not saying Russians don't care about recovering their dead, just that I wouldn't be surprised it wasn't something the leadership paid much attention to.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509971837186363399?s=20&t=tHHlfDYau9n6Uk...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509979600234987520?s=20&t=tHHlfDYau9n6Uk...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1509916006793170949
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1509883144396283904

[Storr]

This thing is probably already in Poland.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1510016088070889472?s=20&t=3kPx7ujP8IhW...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1510038124692488193

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bruh moment.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509754010160574467?s=20&t=MXD7z1s...

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1509752229900828673?s=20&t=fpvlIPru1FXv...

Come now doesn't Ukraine understand the "special military operation" is supposed to be in Ukraine not Russia.

The Ukrainians also attacked a Russian airbase in Millerovo with a missile strike.