Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

Nice.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504945187126132739?s=20&t=682-s-E...
Link to ISW March 18th Russian offensive campaign assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

"The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term."

The successful ambushing of Russian units behind the lines strikes me as a particularly good message to send out to Russia as and when it ponders just how viable a long term occupation might be.

It would be a very significant development if Ukraine is able to push the Russians back across the Dnieper. Edit: This would still be true even if Mariupol falls.

https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1504943113273495556?s=20&t=XpteDz7g_z...

See that M-14 bridge to the east? Take and blow that bridge and you’ve indefinitely halted the Russian advance around Mykolaiv and any designs they have on Odessa.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Interesting article on the women in Vladimir Putin's life:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-19/the-secret-life-of-vladimir-putin/100898550

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Interesting article on the women in Vladimir Putin's life:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-19/the-secret-life-of-vladimir-putin/100898550

Vlad has many girlfriends. They go to different school, this why maybe you never hear of them da?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

Nice.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504945187126132739?s=20&t=682-s-E...
Link to ISW March 18th Russian offensive campaign assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

"The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term."

Buried in that ISW report is a refutation of the earlier US report that Russia had captured Izium: it asses that the town centre is still in Ukrainian hands. This is good new for Ukrainian defenders and I retract my earlier comments about the British MoD's assessment being too rosy.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I'm not sure how intentional it was; but three Russian cosmonaut's arrived on the ISS wearing Ukrainian colors. Given the education of most Astronauts and the necessary cooperation with others of all nationalities their work requires though it wouldn't surprise me.

[Yoda]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

Definitely cheated on his wife and had a kid with the mistress. That’s not that great. As a Californian, I’d agree that he was a bad governor, not a great person, idk about his acting, but as said, he is at least using his pulpit to support democracy, which is more than a lot of Republicans can say and should be lauded.

Don't get me wrong, I DO NOT think he did a good job as governor. He was great on environmental issues, but outside of that he left with a higher deficit than he came in with (which is why Gray Davis was recalled) and I don't like that he pushed for independent redistricting while republicans all over the country were pretty much gerrymandering 80% of the rest of the country. To his credit he's pushed for gerrymandering reform in other GOP controlled states as well since he left office - like Ohio - but the constitutional amendments he endorsed and helped pass did not take the power out of politicians' hands and so they haven't really fixed anything. I'd love it if went all-in and helped to push an amendment that created a truly independent commission.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385

Seems like pretty standard stuff. It doesn't seem like the White House is signaling a major shift in Beijing's position, at least not based on this.

Beijing's position is a lameass "war is bad, but we won't say aloud that Russia is bad too" that probably won't change for quite a while.

Clearly Joe did not have any intention of bargaining to get China to move in his favor but instead tried to browbeat Xi into submission with "freedom and democracy" rhetoric and threatening sanctions. Thus the result is what we see, the Chinese position remains unchanged, we're keeping the option open to supply Russia, and the Americans are disappointed.

By the way, there has been some stuff written that China's state media is changing its coverage on the war, I watched some of its coverage today and I think there is a game being played by CCTV. On its English language channel, indeed the coverage is less focused on Russia's view and more on the humanitarian and Ukrainian view, but on the Chinese language channel the coverage is still slanted pretty heavily in Russia's favor. Since I can understand both this is kind of amusing to observe, but apparently the game is successful in the sense that it has fooled NYT and WaPo.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385

Seems like pretty standard stuff. It doesn't seem like the White House is signaling a major shift in Beijing's position, at least not based on this.

Beijing's position is a lameass "war is bad, but we won't say aloud that Russia is bad too" that probably won't change for quite a while.

Clearly Joe did not have any intention of bargaining to get China to move in his favor but instead tried to browbeat Xi into submission with "freedom and democracy" rhetoric and threatening sanctions. Thus the result is what we see, the Chinese position remains unchanged, we're keeping the option open to supply Russia, and the Americans are disappointed.

A lack of change in Beijing's position is not actually as disappointing to us dastardly foreign devils as you seem to think, since a day or two ago Blinken was implying that the concern was that China might start very overtly aiding Russia's increasingly incoherent war aims (whatever the hell those are), which is not currently happening. Sure, Blinken is an idiot, but he's also the Secretary of State and presumably had somebody's permission to stoke fears (or hopes, if one enjoys unprovoked mass slaughter as much as you keep claiming not to) of that.

the humanitarian and Ukrainian view,

Mask off. Not a clown but the whole circus. Saying the quiet part out loud. Whatever else people are saying these days about this sort of remark.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385

Seems like pretty standard stuff. It doesn't seem like the White House is signaling a major shift in Beijing's position, at least not based on this.

Beijing's position is a lameass "war is bad, but we won't say aloud that Russia is bad too" that probably won't change for quite a while.

Clearly Joe did not have any intention of bargaining to get China to move in his favor but instead tried to browbeat Xi into submission with "freedom and democracy" rhetoric and threatening sanctions. Thus the result is what we see, the Chinese position remains unchanged, we're keeping the option open to supply Russia, and the Americans are disappointed.

A lack of change in Beijing's position is not actually as disappointing to us dastardly foreign devils as you seem to think, since a day or two ago Blinken was implying that the concern was that China might start very overtly aiding Russia's increasingly incoherent war aims (whatever the hell those are), which is not currently happening. Sure, Blinken is an idiot, but he's also the Secretary of State and presumably had somebody's permission to stoke fears (or hopes, if one enjoys unprovoked mass slaughter as much as you keep claiming not to) of that.

the humanitarian and Ukrainian view,

Mask off. Not a clown but the whole circus. Saying the quiet part out loud. Whatever else people are saying these days about this sort of remark.

I mean, I personally would dispute just the bolded, but I agree with literally everything else that you said.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AhmedBaba_/status/1504985656354918404

[GoTfan]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

Nice.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504945187126132739?s=20&t=682-s-E...
Link to ISW March 18th Russian offensive campaign assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

"The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term."

Buried in that ISW report is a refutation of the earlier US report that Russia had captured Izium: it asses that the town centre is still in Ukrainian hands. This is good new for Ukrainian defenders and I retract my earlier comments about the British MoD's assessment being too rosy.

So I was right. Things have stalemated somewhat.

[Frodo]

It has been obvious from the beginning, Putin doesn't want a diplomatic solution. While Macron and Scholz have good intentions, their calls are a waste of time. Tbh, as much as I like the bloodshed to end, at this point I don't even want a false peace agreement and forced neutrality, I hope Russia is defeated in the war, resulting in an end of Putler's reign, including a return of Crimea.

You're not alone in that sentiment.  We are on the cusp of seeing Russia lose its status as a Great Power as a result of the war in Ukraine.  And with Vladimir Putin gone and Russia much shrunken in its power and influence, there is also the prospect of a great authoritarian Eurasian Axis alliance being stillborn with the People's Republic of China being shorn of its greatest ally and left to face a vengeful West alone led by the United States. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

I think most of this would be a straight out bad idea for similar reasons to why Russian invading ukraine was a bad idea, but even more so (vague casus beli, hostile populace, invading nations with little experience about wars of conquest, flying in the face of international law) which is why it won't ever happen, but the one exception is Georgia. If Russian troops are indeed flying out of the puppet states to back up Ukraine, what is really stopping the Georgian government just waltzing in, like when Italy simply walked into Rome when Napoleon III's Papal Protection Guard were recalled for other purposes?

I mean, they won't (most Georgians, even though they have little sympathy for russia and want their country united, do not really want war, especially to be the aggressive party) but perhaps in the longterm this means Abkhazia could edge closer to Tbilisi if Moscow is a less reliable backer. The current government in Georgia has a lot of prewar Zelensky vibes, so who knows how the actual population would react

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't want to be Dr Strangelove

.......but I will go ahead and do so anyway

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

I think most of this would be a straight out bad idea for similar reasons to why Russian invading ukraine was a bad idea, but even more so (vague casus beli, hostile populace, invading nations with little experience about wars of conquest, flying in the face of international law) which is why it won't ever happen, but the one exception is Georgia. If Russian troops are indeed flying out of the puppet states to back up Ukraine, what is really stopping the Georgian government just waltzing in, like when Italy simply walked into Rome when Napoleon III's Papal Protection Guard were recalled for other purposes?

I mean, they won't (most Georgians, even though they have little sympathy for russia and want their country united, do not really want war, especially to be the aggressive party) but perhaps in the longterm this means Abkhazia could edge closer to Tbilisi if Moscow is a less reliable backer. The current government in Georgia has a lot of prewar Zelensky vibes, so who knows how the actual population would react

I've been thinking to myself for a while that this might be an opportunity for smaller nations to "resolve" a few frozen conflicts. AFAIK, Azerbaijan, well-armed and flush with enthusiasm from recent victories, appears the only one with such an appetite--a development I view negatively.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This might very well be the best time in decades for nations to engage in "reclamation efforts" against long-term Russian expansion. One can only imagine what might happen if there was a coordinated effort where Japan tried to retake the Kurils, Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Finland with Karelia (maybe even Kaliningrad by Germany, Poland and/or Lithuania)...

I think most of this would be a straight out bad idea for similar reasons to why Russian invading ukraine was a bad idea, but even more so (vague casus beli, hostile populace, invading nations with little experience about wars of conquest, flying in the face of international law) which is why it won't ever happen, but the one exception is Georgia. If Russian troops are indeed flying out of the puppet states to back up Ukraine, what is really stopping the Georgian government just waltzing in, like when Italy simply walked into Rome when Napoleon III's Papal Protection Guard were recalled for other purposes?

I mean, they won't (most Georgians, even though they have little sympathy for russia and want their country united, do not really want war, especially to be the aggressive party) but perhaps in the longterm this means Abkhazia could edge closer to Tbilisi if Moscow is a less reliable backer. The current government in Georgia has a lot of prewar Zelensky vibes, so who knows how the actual population would react

I've been thinking to myself for a while that this might be an opportunity for smaller nations to "resolve" a few frozen conflicts. AFAIK, Azerbaijan, well-armed and flush with enthusiasm from recent victories, appears the only one with such an appetite--a development I view negatively.

Yeah, that could happen (if i was Armenia i would be desperately seeking a better patron, and they do seem to be playing both sides in the UN General assembly/European Council). The other question is the moribund Syria conflict where Turkey and its proxies could start testing the waters more while Russia is distracted.

[CumbrianLefty]

It has been obvious from the beginning, Putin doesn't want a diplomatic solution. While Macron and Scholz have good intentions, their calls are a waste of time. Tbh, as much as I like the bloodshed to end, at this point I don't even want a false peace agreement and forced neutrality, I hope Russia is defeated in the war, resulting in an end of Putler's reign, including a return of Crimea.

You're not alone in that sentiment.  We are on the cusp of seeing Russia lose its status as a Great Power as a result of the war in Ukraine.  And with Vladimir Putin gone and Russia much shrunken in its power and influence, there is also the prospect of a great authoritarian Eurasian Axis alliance being stillborn with the People's Republic of China being shorn of its greatest ally and left to face a vengeful West alone led by the United States. 

If this (still rather optimistic) scenario actually comes to pass, we should surely be generous* towards China rather than "vengeful". They have quite a lot to offer the world, potentially.

(*this doesn't preclude pressing them where that is required, of course)

[Logical]

The most lethal Russian bomb/missile strike and a terrible blunder from the Ukrainians. Why are they still sleeping together in the barracks so close to the frontlines?
https://twitter.com/ramaekers_robin/status/1505072180790444033

[Meclazine for Israel]

I don't want to be Dr Strangelove

.......but I will go ahead and do so anyway

And voila....there you go.

New Russian missile technology being used for the first time today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-19/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-says-time-for-meaningful-talk-russia/100923654

Some new hypersonic missile that travels 10 times the speed of sound and has a range of 2,000km.

Vladimir Putin is going to test his full range of military capability (thermobaric, chemical) on Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

He is making sure Russia is match-fit for future conflicts.

[Logical]

I don't want to be Dr Strangelove

.......but I will go ahead and do so anyway

And voila....there you go.

New Russian missile technology being used for the first time today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-19/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-says-time-for-meaningful-talk-russia/100923654

Some new hypersonic missile that travels 10 times the speed of sound and has a range of 2,000km.

Vladimir Putin is going to test his full range of military capability (thermobaric, chemical) on Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

He is making sure Russia is match-fit for future conflicts.

Using a hypersonic missile to destroy a static storage target is what one would call overkill. No, the purpose of this strike is to signal the West that Russia still has functioning standoff munitions.

[dead0man]

or that the only missiles they have left are prototypes and sh**t from the 70s.



Also, "hypersonic" missiles are as over rated as nunchucks or katanas.  Maybe, maybe they are useful as anti-ship missiles (debatable), but what advantage do they have over traditional ballistic missiles when firing at stationary land targets?

[Storr]

Bye.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505094666684882944?s=20&t=lGDHUUQs-znSRR...

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504956562502303744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...
awesome

[dead0man]

Russia suspends grain exports to central Asia, prices do what they do

The Russian government has announced that it intends to extend its ban on the export of grain and sugar to fellow members of a trading bloc until the end of August in a move that has sparked fear of food shortages around the region.

The Economic Development Ministry said on March 10 that the decision was motivated by the need to “ensure the country’s food security and to help protect the domestic market in the current climate.”

All the other member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU, which comprise Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, will be deprived of the opportunity to import wheat, rye, barley, and corn from Russia until that designated date. Officials in Moscow insist that Russia currently has stocks of grain well in excess of its needs, but that the temporary prohibition has been instituted in part to prevent the re-export of crops to third countries.

“EAEU countries have already bought the amounts they need, free of duty, over the current season,” the Economic Development Ministry said in its statement.

Kazakhstan may take a different view, however. Last year, Kazakhs increased their volume of grain purchases from Russia by 77 percent, or around 2.3 million tons, coming behind only Turkey and Egypt as the main global buyers of Russian grain. Industry insiders say the real volume may be even greater, as official Russian data does not account for transactions made in the gray economy.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia suspends grain exports to central Asia, prices do what they do

Australia will be happy to plant more grain for these countries.

China has imposed sanctions on our agricultural exports over the last 12-24 months throughout COVID so replacing our export markets will not be a problem now.