Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

Very grim news for the Ukrainian Forces on the Donbass. Izyum is an important crossroad over the Donets and the most defendable point between Kharkiv and Donbass. Their rear is now open to attack and they could be cut off soon.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504522422258737154

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia’s fumbling invasion, visualized





Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/17/russias-fumbling-invasion-visualized/

If that's true...then a no-fly zone wouldn't even mean much.

[President Johnson]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

It also seems like Ahnold created a channel on Telegram yesterday to spread this video.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/tumarov/status/1504373168575766533?s=21

Uzbekistan? More like Uzbasedistan.

[Torie]

Yes Arnold's speech was extremely well written and delivered. I was impressed.

[Sol]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

[Storr]

Complete annihilation. With that level of destruction, I'm guessing artillery was used.

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1504481352980205570?s=20&t=xqAv4EItE...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

Gosar and Cawthorn voted for it? Huh.

Anyway:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504461917779283976?s=20&t=V8r6AirHfCa...

[Yoda]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

Weak, scared, empty threats.

The Russians are not crazy, they are not suicidal. They understand the doctrine of MAD.

They make themselves sound reckless and fearless in order to scare Western countries into inaction.

[Torie]

That is what happens when you don't have to pay market rates for gas.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/susinsky/status/1504539430392061960

[Storr]

Canada's diplomatic social media team is just as based as it was in 2014:

https://twitter.com/fionajarvis4/status/1504495341344854017?s=20&t=ko6cXtDox...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage like they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

The truth is an actual nuclear exchange between the US and Russia while it would no doubt be an utterly devastating and traumatic event would go far worse for Russia, and probably wouldn't mean the end of the world. For one we don't know how many Russian warheads are even still operational or deployable via ICBM (we've already seen how effective the Russian military is) and the US has missile defense system capable of intercepting probably most. Now that doesn't mean that it should be brushed off as no problem because "most" doesn't mean "all" and even one or two warheads slipping through would cause the death of thousands and leave presumably some major city essentially permanently uninhabitable...but it's nothing in comparison to the US counterstrike against Russia where the country might as well not cease to exist later. And even if Putin is too crazy to not realize this, almost everyone else in the Russian military and chain of command isn't.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Canada's diplomatic social media team is just as based as it was in 2014:

https://twitter.com/fionajarvis4/status/1504495341344854017?s=20&t=ko6cXtDox...

And Russia scrapped the vote on its "humanitarian" resolution...

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_NewArab/status/1504578663815303168

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uzbekistan falling is one hell of a domino, considering it's definitely not a place you'd expect to be concerned with human rights at all to put it mildly. (Even if it's not as bad now as it was under Islam Karimov, still not saying much!)

[It’s so Joever]

With Izium falling it’s likely the SE front is going to be the first domino to collapse. It was a good show of unity and I do fully expect the Ukrainian national identity to be strengthened even when the country is invaded and occupied…but I think this is where the positivity will soon decline on the actual frontlines.

[Torie]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage like they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

The truth is an actual nuclear exchange between the US and Russia while it would no doubt be an utterly devastating and traumatic event would go far worse for Russia, and probably wouldn't mean the end of the world. For one we don't know how many Russian warheads are even still operational or deployable via ICBM (we've already seen how effective the Russian military is) and the US has missile defense system capable of intercepting probably most. Now that doesn't mean that it should be brushed off as no problem because "most" doesn't mean "all" and even one or two warheads slipping through would cause the death of thousands and leave presumably some major city essentially permanently uninhabitable...but it's nothing in comparison to the US counterstrike against Russia where the country might as well not cease to exist later. And even if Putin is too crazy to not realize this, almost everyone else in the Russian military and chain of command isn't.

Good post BRTD, but I have read that the chain of command in Russia between Putin says let's end it all, and the missile launch is very truncated. That does not mean that many will not refuse to push whatever buttons need to be pushed. And I agree as an uber non-expert that the most likely outcome is that Russia will cease to exist in any meaningful way on this earth as opposed to something far more "pandemic." But even if just a few missiles are launched the result will be utterly horrific in human suffering. And then there is all the radiation in the air.

The issue is 1) will Putin accept he can't get what he wants in lieu or trying to blow the planet up, and 2) if he tries to blow the planet up, can he do it given the questionable state of his hardware, and whatever underlings are needed to launch will obey his orders. It is a very low risk any of this will happen, but if it is 1% or 2%, that is very concerning obviously.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...

More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

Those were the ones sent before the war. The ones being sent now are Switchblades. They can do reconnaissance, but they are also "kamikaze" drones that can blow up lightly armoured vehicles/tanks, depending on the model (the ones being sent are probably the earlier, weaker and more numerous ones).

They don't compare to the Bayraktar, but they give Ukraine a short-term boost to its capacity to harass convoys, and one that could be renewed with the supply of more switchblades - in theory.

I have written about my scepticism of this because there was no indication that Ukraine had training with switchblades. If there wasn't covert training, there are three scenarios: (a)the learning curve is really fast, (b)there is a significant delay while Ukraine trains with weapons it can't use, and (c)Ukraine puts them into use ineffectively with underprepared operators.

The switchblades are relatively new tech and the US stocks and production of them is rather limited. Even if Ukraine uses them well, resupply of these drones to the extent that e.g. anti-tank missiles are resupplied could become unrealistic.

…if the U.S. actually supplies the Switchblades they’ll be used effectively…

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...

More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

If China today were a person he would be a libertarian masquerading as a hardline communist and you can’t convince me otherwise.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...

More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.