Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

German company Bosch under investigation for possibly violating sanctions:

https://mobile.twitter.com/InvestingStockz/status/1504781346346053640

https://mobile.twitter.com/theb1ackswan/status/1504777332606873600


Bosch's PR department doing overtime right now:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BoschGlobal/status/1504773207081037824

[Torie]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

[CumbrianLefty]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, and is that just an unknown. If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

In truth, to a large degree it is unknowable and both viewpoints have an arguably sound basis.

What remains true, though, is that Russia in theory having enough to totally subjugate Ukraine isn't the same as their being able to do so in practice. The cost to them, both in terms of their own lives and regarding the wider effects, could at some point become too great to make that actually viable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin had convened his National Security Council today and is supposed to begin another address to the Russian people any moment now.


https://mobile.twitter.com/monique_raus/status/1504745869249294336

[Logical]

Massive pro-war rally in the Luzhniki football stadium. Expect Putin to deliver a blood and soil speech.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

[Torie]

Depressing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Defence Sec. Lloyd Austin has left Slovakia for Bulgaria today.

Yesterday, WaPo reported, Slovakia reiterated it was willing to send its S-300 as soon as it had a viable replacement or a capability guaranteed for an unspecified period of time. Germany is currently deploying some of its Patriot AA to Slovakia, which may meet the second requirement.

When asked about US supply of Patriots or alternatives to Slovakia at a press conference, Austin said: “These are things we will continue to work with all of our allies on, and certainly this is not just a U.S. issue. It’s a NATO issue.” Given how open most countries have been about supplying drones, MANPADS, etc., I think this means this isn’t a done deal.

A senior, anonymous Pentagon official told WaPo that alternatives could be supplied to Ukraine in lieu of the S-300, but this doesn't make much sense to me. Slovakia only had a few S-300s to begin with, and the other Soviet systems are supposed to be complementary (it’s unlikely to be either/or given that both medium- and long- range SAMs are getting destroyed in Ukraine).

Today, Lavrov argued the supply of these weapons would not be allowed since Soviet/Russian systems have a legal certificate meaning owners need Russia’s permission to send them to third parties. The existence of such a certificate is plausible, but it could be easily ignored and Slovakia may not recognise it anyway because it got its S-300s from the USSR (including Ukraine ), not Russia.

According to the Ta Nea newspaper, the Greek MoD has said there is no question of the S-300 being sent to Ukraine, as it is necessary for Greece’s defence.

N.B. there was no mention of replacement systems, Greece uses the Patriot system, and it didn’t buy the S-300 to begin with (it took the systems off Cyprus’ hands decades ago). I think this stance might change if Greece is offered enough of the systems it actually buys to replace its S-300s, but I could see a scenario where generals strongly prefer having a mix of these systems and refuse to trade any S-300s.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

A veritable who's who of $hitbags.

I was a bit puzzled to see the Wisconsin guy on the list with the other parade of horribles as a Putin pimp, but it turns out that he is not one, he just thinks there are higher priorities than punishing Putin:

"Grothman said he was concerned that the changes to part of that law, defining human rights abuses, could possibly be used to apply economic sanctions to countries over their stance on LGBTQ rights or abortion laws."

It is the damn queers again. They get in the way of everything.

[dead0man]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

it's the first one causing the second one, the Russians do not want to do the grind thing, nobody on offense wants to do the grind thing (even if you don't care about the numbers of your own men you kill, you would still rather not do it that way outside of extremely specific situations that probably couldn't even exist in the real world in 2022) .  The thing is though, if the front line units are just getting an erratic trickle of fuel/gear/men, even slowly grinding is impossible to sustain.  The actual men doing the fighting are going to lose what little moral they have left in such a situation.  Russia's position is likely getting worse by the day.

Take the VDV and Spetsnaz (specops) units.  Those are filled with loyal, well trained, well equipped and experienced men.  They have taken extremely heavy casualties, but are also (likely) the cause of most of Russia's gains.  These men are exhausted as they've (likely) been overly relied upon by the higher ups.  Their moral must be in the toilet if they had one to put it in.  It's unsustainable.  The fact that Belarus has done nothing, the fact that Russia is calling in men from Syria and C.A.R. puts further proof to that point.

Or I'm wrong and Putin is about to pull a quarter of a million well equipped, well trained and experienced men out of his butt and place them on the border as if he was turning in a set of Risk cards late in the game.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dwnews/status/1504769398506205185

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1504795048797421568

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

it's the first one causing the second one, the Russians do not want to do the grind thing, nobody on offense wants to do the grind thing (even if you don't care about the numbers of your own men you kill, you would still rather not do it that way outside of extremely specific situations that probably couldn't even exist in the real world in 2022) .  The thing is though, if the front line units are just getting an erratic trickle of fuel/gear/men, even slowly grinding is impossible to sustain.  The actual men doing the fighting are going to lose what little moral they have left in such a situation.  Russia's position is likely getting worse by the day.

Take the VDV and Spetsnaz (specops) units.  Those are filled with loyal, well trained, well equipped and experienced men.  They have taken extremely heavy casualties, but are also (likely) the cause of most of Russia's gains.  These men are exhausted as they've (likely) been overly relied upon by the higher ups.  Their moral must be in the toilet if they had one to put it in.  It's unsustainable.  The fact that Belarus has done nothing, the fact that Russia is calling in men from Syria and C.A.R. puts further proof to that point.

Or I'm wrong and Putin is about to pull a quarter of a million well equipped, well trained and experienced men out of his butt and place them on the border as if he was turning in a set of Risk cards late in the game.

Isn’t this somewhat compensated by Russian conscripts gaining battlefield experience?

[Torie]

"Putin blamed Kyiv for delaying negotiations by "putting forward more and more unrealistic proposals," the Kremlin said."

How many Russian provinces was Ukraine demanding that Russia cede to it?

"Isn’t this somewhat compensated by Russian conscripts gaining battlefield experience?"

You mean like punching holes in your gas tank and abandoning your vehicles when there is incoming because those that do have gas turn into fireballs?

Sorry I could not help it. Just pretend this post does not exist. Thank you.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm pretty sure Putin is going to carry on saying the things he says until the moment there is a deal. I am even starting to think that one effectively being agreed "over his head" and then presented to him by others in the Russian power structure as a fait accompli, can no longer be ruled out.

[dead0man]

Isn’t this somewhat compensated by Russian conscripts gaining battlefield experience?

yes, some, but nowhere near enough with the overall losses they are sustaining.

[Storr]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

it's the first one causing the second one, the Russians do not want to do the grind thing, nobody on offense wants to do the grind thing (even if you don't care about the numbers of your own men you kill, you would still rather not do it that way outside of extremely specific situations that probably couldn't even exist in the real world in 2022) .  The thing is though, if the front line units are just getting an erratic trickle of fuel/gear/men, even slowly grinding is impossible to sustain.  The actual men doing the fighting are going to lose what little moral they have left in such a situation.  Russia's position is likely getting worse by the day.

Take the VDV and Spetsnaz (specops) units.  Those are filled with loyal, well trained, well equipped and experienced men.  They have taken extremely heavy casualties, but are also (likely) the cause of most of Russia's gains.  These men are exhausted as they've (likely) been overly relied upon by the higher ups.  Their moral must be in the toilet if they had one to put it in.  It's unsustainable.  The fact that Belarus has done nothing, the fact that Russia is calling in men from Syria and C.A.R. puts further proof to that point.

Or I'm wrong and Putin is about to pull a quarter of a million well equipped, well trained and experienced men out of his butt and place them on the border as if he was turning in a set of Risk cards late in the game.

Speaking of VDV losses:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1504706312667643931?s=20&t=uTxMgQCM...

The 331st is part of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, which is fighting near/in Irpin, northwest of Kyiv.
This unit is one of those that had soldiers caught after "accidentally" entering Ukraine in 2014.

[compucomp]

Today the Shandong (China's aircraft carrier) sailed through the Taiwan Strait, undoubtedly a provocative signal. So despite the signals from before, we're still playing both sides and looking out for our own interests. Xi and Biden have begun their video chat, we'll see what results. I do think China can make accommodations to the Americans on the war, if the Americans accommodate China on an important issue, like on tariffs. Honestly this is in American interests as well as it is the easiest way to reduce inflation. However if Biden offers nothing and just lectures Xi about "democracy and freedom" like he's done in the past, then Xi will not concede anything and the meeting will have no result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Massive pro-war rally in the Luzhniki football stadium. Expect Putin to deliver a blood and soil speech.

Bit of a fiasco. People (esp. state employees) were bussed in as per the old Soviet traditions and a number left as soon as their tickets were stamped, and the TV feed for Putin's speech rather bizarrely cut off shortly before the conclusion.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Today the Shandong (China's aircraft carrier) sailed through the Taiwan Strait, undoubtedly a provocative signal. So despite the signals from before, we're still playing both sides and looking out for our own interests. Xi and Biden have begun their video chat, we'll see what results. I do think China can make accommodations to the Americans on the war, if the Americans accommodate China on an important issue, like on tariffs. Honestly this is in American interests as well as it is the easiest way to reduce inflation. However if Biden offers nothing and just lectures Xi about "democracy and freedom" like he's done in the past, then Xi will not concede anything and the meeting will have no result.

Why does Joe Biden keep making the poor Chinese ethnically cleanse minorities and threaten to forcibly annex it’s neighbor?

[Sir Mohamed]

It has been obvious from the beginning, Putin doesn't want a diplomatic solution. While Macron and Scholz have good intentions, their calls are a waste of time. Tbh, as much as I like the bloodshed to end, at this point I don't even want a false peace agreement and forced neutrality, I hope Russia is defeated in the war, resulting in an end of Putler's reign, including a return of Crimea.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Massive pro-war rally in the Luzhniki football stadium. Expect Putin to deliver a blood and soil speech.

Bit of a fiasco. People (esp. state employees) were bussed in as per the old Soviet traditions and a number left as soon as their tickets were stamped, and the TV feed for Putin's speech rather bizarrely cut off shortly before the conclusion.

Was there anything of interest in the speech or was it the same "we have to nazify Ukraine in order to denazify it" crapola as always?

[Thunder98]

Such a pathetic response by the South African President by blaming “NATO” for Russia invading Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1504695342507474964?s=20&t=t3UEuadJ041ejh...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It has been obvious from the beginning, Putin doesn't want a diplomatic solution.

Whether he wants one or not isn't particularly relevant. What matters is whether he can be persuaded to accept - and sooner rather than later - that doing so would now be the least-worst option for him to take.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was there anything of interest in the speech or was it the same "we have to nazify Ukraine in order to denazify it" crapola as always?

Pure wind. The bit that got accidentally cut out by his own state broadcaster was a rambling anecdote about the invasi Special Military Operation beginning on the birthday of Fyodor Ushakhov (1745-1817) who is now the patron saint of the Russian Navy and the Russian Nuclear Bombers Fleet but, more importantly, was instrumental in the conquest of the Crimea and the founding of Sevastopol and various ports along the Black Sea coast, including Kherson.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, that's weird.


https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504812170709811204


https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1504815542250704897


He must have had bad ratings or something.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504770349187149848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...