Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385

Seems like pretty standard stuff. It doesn't seem like the White House is signaling a major shift in Beijing's position, at least not based on this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It really takes a special kind of craven, hollow cynicism to look at this conflict and have "muh tribes fighting" be your whole takeaway. The best part is that these kinds of people think they are demonstrating a superior intellect and ability to "cut through the bullsh*t" and look at the cold, hard facts, when they're actually doing the opposite: whitewashing a situation that is as morally clear-cut as you can possibly find them in geopolitics with a series of facile platitudes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's also especially rich when people denigrate Ukrainian democracy as a corrupt sham, when their politics are precisely the kinds of politics that contribute to the erosion of democratic legitimacy in their own countries. And frankly, while Ukraine's political class is certainly plenty corrupt, I suspect that the emphasis on their corruption is largely a product of ethnic prejudice ("those Eastern Europeans are all so sleazy amirite?") along with the fact that a lot of the stuff that is called corruption in non-Western countries is legally tolerated or even plainly legal in Western countries (especially the US). The Ukrainian political class throughout these weeks has certainly shown more courage, dignity, and care for their own people than I've ever seen from the majority of Western politicians. Do you seriously expect that if the US was under a credible threat of invasion, many members of Congress would actually pick up a gun and fight?? Ted Cruz couldn't be assed to stay during a f**king snowstorm, there's no doubt he'd high-tail it before any tank has rolled in the vicinity.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385

Seems like pretty standard stuff. It doesn't seem like the White House is signaling a major shift in Beijing's position, at least not based on this.

RE: Taiwan
This is what always happens in these US-China meetings, the US says it supports the status quo in Taiwan, Beijing makes a public statement about how even the US refuses to support Taiwanese independence.

[Badger]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

it's the first one causing the second one, the Russians do not want to do the grind thing, nobody on offense wants to do the grind thing (even if you don't care about the numbers of your own men you kill, you would still rather not do it that way outside of extremely specific situations that probably couldn't even exist in the real world in 2022) .  The thing is though, if the front line units are just getting an erratic trickle of fuel/gear/men, even slowly grinding is impossible to sustain.  The actual men doing the fighting are going to lose what little moral they have left in such a situation.  Russia's position is likely getting worse by the day.

Take the VDV and Spetsnaz (specops) units.  Those are filled with loyal, well trained, well equipped and experienced men.  They have taken extremely heavy casualties, but are also (likely) the cause of most of Russia's gains.  These men are exhausted as they've (likely) been overly relied upon by the higher ups.  Their moral must be in the toilet if they had one to put it in.  It's unsustainable.  The fact that Belarus has done nothing, the fact that Russia is calling in men from Syria and C.A.R. puts further proof to that point.

Or I'm wrong and Putin is about to pull a quarter of a million well equipped, well trained and experienced men out of his butt and place them on the border as if he was turning in a set of Risk cards late in the game.

Speaking of VDV losses:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1504706312667643931?s=20&t=uTxMgQCM...

The 331st is part of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, which is fighting near/in Irpin, northwest of Kyiv.
This unit is one of those that had soldiers caught after "accidentally" entering Ukraine in 2014.

 May he rot in h*** for his many bloody sins.

[Badger]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

Perhaps, but one tribe is going to engage in less suppression of the other tribe than the other.

Plus the fact that, notwithstanding its flaws, the Ukraine is still fundamentally a liberal democracy whereas Russia clearly and manifestly is not.

[President Johnson]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

Perhaps, but one tribe is going to engage in less suppression of the other tribe than the other.

Plus the fact that, notwithstanding its flaws, the Ukraine is still fundamentally a liberal democracy whereas Russia clearly and manifestly is not.

Yeah, and Ukraine has made tremendous progress with reforms in recent years, as this is the main criteria for joining the EU. That's why the EU, despite its flaws, is the best multinational project of the post-war era.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385

Seems like pretty standard stuff. It doesn't seem like the White House is signaling a major shift in Beijing's position, at least not based on this.

Beijing's position is a lameass "war is bad, but we won't say aloud that Russia is bad too" that probably won't change for quite a while.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Re: Ukraine

In Ukraine you can vote the president out of office. In Russia you have to be careful that you won't end up in a gulag if you want to run against the president. How anyone can equate the two is beyond me too, although the position came a bit across as general cynicism.

[Storr]

Obligatory big if true qualifier:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

[Person Man]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

it's the first one causing the second one, the Russians do not want to do the grind thing, nobody on offense wants to do the grind thing (even if you don't care about the numbers of your own men you kill, you would still rather not do it that way outside of extremely specific situations that probably couldn't even exist in the real world in 2022) .  The thing is though, if the front line units are just getting an erratic trickle of fuel/gear/men, even slowly grinding is impossible to sustain.  The actual men doing the fighting are going to lose what little moral they have left in such a situation.  Russia's position is likely getting worse by the day.

Take the VDV and Spetsnaz (specops) units.  Those are filled with loyal, well trained, well equipped and experienced men.  They have taken extremely heavy casualties, but are also (likely) the cause of most of Russia's gains.  These men are exhausted as they've (likely) been overly relied upon by the higher ups.  Their moral must be in the toilet if they had one to put it in.  It's unsustainable.  The fact that Belarus has done nothing, the fact that Russia is calling in men from Syria and C.A.R. puts further proof to that point.

Or I'm wrong and Putin is about to pull a quarter of a million well equipped, well trained and experienced men out of his butt and place them on the border as if he was turning in a set of Risk cards late in the game.

Speaking of VDV losses:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1504706312667643931?s=20&t=uTxMgQCM...

The 331st is part of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, which is fighting near/in Irpin, northwest of Kyiv.
This unit is one of those that had soldiers caught after "accidentally" entering Ukraine in 2014.

 May he rot in h*** for his many bloody sins.

War criminals die, God laughs.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Re: Ukraine

In Ukraine you can vote the president out of office. In Russia you have to be careful that you won't end up in a gulag if you want to run against the president. How anyone can equate the two is beyond me too, although the position came a bit across as general cynicism.

Worth noting that Zelensky was elected, as best I can tell, because he was the not an oligarch candidate.

[Storr]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Obligatory big if true qualifier:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

But Forumlurker said that positive news for Ukraine was over after yesterday

[Storr]

A "tactical landing" in some farmer's wheat field. Is this the best video Russia has available to use for propaganda? oof.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504836000073269256?s=20&t=RNADCy-6W9g...

[Middle-aged Europe]

German ministry of defense says they have exhausted their possibilities within the existing army stockpiles to provide Ukraine with weapons, and are now looking at buying new weapons from arms companies to send them to Ukraine.

[Storr]

German ministry of defense says they have exhausted their possibilities within the existing army stockpiles to provide Ukraine with weapons, and are now looking at buying new weapons from arms companies to send them to Ukraine.

That seems believable. Germany sold most (all?) of their leftover Soviet Forces in Germany and East German weaponry in the 90s.

Also from February 24th. I doubt anyone in the tank could hear that dinky train whistle. Ukraine needs some American train horns.

https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1504763445589204992?s=20&t=bJS_MNqg9PHpt...

[Storr]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

Nice.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504945187126132739?s=20&t=682-s-E...

Link to ISW March 18th Russian offensive campaign assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

"The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term."

[Torie]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

Nice.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504945187126132739?s=20&t=682-s-E...
Link to ISW March 18th Russian offensive campaign assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

"The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term."

The successful ambushing of Russian units behind the lines strikes me as a particularly good message to send out to Russia as and when it ponders just how viable a long term occupation might be.

[Storr]

Obligatory big if true comment:

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1504870032312094721?s=20&t=oatDIv5S...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504861665434779651?s=20&t=oatDIv...

Some evidence!

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504906047810637828?s=20&t=RgApMn7...

Nice.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504945187126132739?s=20&t=682-s-E...
Link to ISW March 18th Russian offensive campaign assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

"The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term."

The successful ambushing of Russian units behind the lines strikes me as a particularly good message to send out to Russia as and when it ponders just how viable a long term occupation might be.

It would be a very significant development if Ukraine is able to push the Russians back across the Dnieper. Edit: This would still be true even if Mariupol falls.

https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1504943113273495556?s=20&t=XpteDz7g_z...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1504822884757352456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Storr]

A "tactical landing" in some farmer's wheat field. Is this the best video Russia has available to use for propaganda? oof.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504836000073269256?s=20&t=RNADCy-6W9g...

That tactical landing operation sure did...land.

Why did they post that clip? lmao

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1504953946506420232?s=20&t=CaGoyKW...

[Meclazine for Israel]

I don't want to be Dr Strangelove, but Putin may contemplate a 1-10 kT nuclear weapon on the Ukrainian military if things don't go his way.

Before that, he will try the oxygen consumption weapons that suck the air out of their lungs.

And if that doesn't get Zelensky to give up, Putin then moves to chemical weapons which he did in Syria.

And then if things gets nasty, a nuclear weapon. Then Zelensky will wave the white flag.

I get the feeling Putin is going to step things up to become the bigger dog in this fight.

Hopefully peace talks can de-escalate the situation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504900084844179463

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russian ambassador to Bosnia while threatening them with regards to NATO expansion: "How do you know we have no plans against Croatia, Hungary, Poland?"

This kind of talk isn't a particularly serious threat (they're just throwing out names of European countries at this point), but it is likely to further alienate all of these countries. It must be a little embarrassing for Orban to stick to his relatively lukewarm stances on this conflict (not allowing transport of military aid through Hungary, etc.).