Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1503533835035811841

Breaking news: The Libertarian Party has officially asked Putin to invade the US.

[afleitch]

Lukashenko is only in power because of Russia. If Belarus over extends and commits troops that he doesn't have control over, he will be ousted because and Russia won't waste resources (yet), in propping him up. If Russia overextends in Ukraine and has to lick it's wounds he's also more likely to 'welcome' even stronger Russian attempts to cuck him in Belarus to compensate for the Ukraine misadventure.

[Person Man]

Lukashenko is only in power because of Russia. If Belarus over extends and commits troops that he doesn't have control over, he will be ousted because and Russia won't waste resources (yet), in propping him up. If Russia overextends in Ukraine and has to lick it's wounds he's also more likely to 'welcome' even stronger Russian attempts to cuck him in Belarus to compensate for the Ukraine misadventure.

It's not inconceivable that Russia might lose BOTH Ukraine and Belarus but none of us are that lucky. That's why we post on Atlas.

[Storr]

The losses really are piling up for the Russians:

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1503496313232662532?s=20&t=AC3fKGh...

there are some deaths reported in media not yet included on the list, like Captain Alexey Glushchak of the GRU (Russian military intelligence) and others not included on the above list, but on this one I found on reddit:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-gru-general-killed-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-b987888.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/te0dt3/list_of_killedcaptured_russian_officers_march_14/

I've been focusing and posting on Russian officer casualties because it's rather depressing to read about the enlisted getting killed, whom are mostly younger than I. Even if the Russians are clearly on the "wrong side" in the war, which they are, 19 year olds aren't the ones who are making the decisions.

19 year old Yegor Alexandrovich Kanatnikov of Orel, Orel Oblast

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503438929445498882?s=20&t=1Ej3s64KirU...

19 year old Nikolai Sergeevich Kalinin of Borovichi, Novgorod Oblast

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503049253542928385?s=20&t=1Ej3s64KirU...

19 year old Kirill Seravkin of Artyom, Primorsky Krai

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503484018926538762?s=20&t=1Ej3s64KirU...

Not to copy our friend from Oregon, Nova Green, but reading about 19 year old casualties in Ukraine reminded me of a song: Paul Hardcastle's 1985 hit 19.
He "was inspired to create the song after watching Vietnam Requiem and comparing his own life at 19 to those of the soldiers featured: "...what struck me was how young the soldiers were: the documentary said their average age was 19. I was out having fun in pubs and clubs when I was 19, not being shoved into jungles and shot at.""

link for the official music video, which is age restricted, so embedding it on the forum would result in a notice and hyperlink to watch it on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sajngb0W6I

Speaking of:
 

The tweet says the fate of the passports' owners "is not exactly known", but in the comments a local Russian article announcing Shurmanov's death was shared.

The documents are Russian internal passports, which all Russians are required to get at age 14. Replacement is required within 30 days of reaching ages 20 and 45, which these two will never have to do.

Alexander Vadimovich Shurmanov - born February 4th, 2002 Novouralsk, Sverdlovsk Oblast

Daniel Evgenyevich Bakumenko - born March 20th, 2002 Magnitogorsk, Chelyabinsk Oblast

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503665936364097539?s=20&t=H-BV3BUhxBh...

[Logical]

Hilarious thread of Russian failures over unencrypted communications.
https://twitter.com/MorozMichael/status/1503751800247263234

[Storr]

Updated map of Russian forces in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1503777741191192579?s=20&t=idjdvM1h...

GTD = Guards Tank Division
GMRD = Guards Motor Rifle Division
MRD = Motor Rifle Division


Also the wiki page for NATO Joint Military Symbology, which was really helpful in understanding the map:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Joint_Military_Symbology

[Omega21]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

[Middle-aged Europe]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

Moscow Man

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

But...As far as I'm aware...the employees are simply being fired/laid off en-masse, the buildings aren't being dozed.

Lmao.

[President Johnson]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

Moscow Man

Not to be confused with Moscow Mitch.

[President Johnson]

Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slowenia arrived in Kyiv by train for talks.

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1503782996444340224

[It’s so Joever]

Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slowenia arrived in Kyiv by train for talks.

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1503782996444340224

BASED!
Biden should go as well.

[Omega21]

Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slowenia arrived in Kyiv by train for talks.

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1503782996444340224

BASED!
Biden should go as well.

Hear me out:

Adidas wearing Russian Gopnik drunk on Vodka vs American Walmart shopper with blood grease levels of 50%

Winner takes Ukraine

A true battle of the common people

[It’s so Joever]

Another question doves really need to answer, is Russian leadership currently willing to go to war with NATO?

If yes…then what exactly is stopping them from taking Latvia and Lithuania next? Their morality?

If no, then why do we assume leadership won’t back down and sue for negotiations if we raise the stakes in Ukraine?

[Person Man]

Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slowenia arrived in Kyiv by train for talks.

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1503782996444340224

BASED!
Biden should go as well.

Hear me out:

Adidas wearing Russian Gopnik drunk on Vodka vs American Walmart shopper with blood grease levels of 50%

Winner takes Ukraine

A true battle of the common people

This saga will only be complete with the arrival of Florida Man.

[Omega21]

Another question doves really need to answer, is Russian leadership currently willing to go to war with NATO?

If yes…then what exactly is stopping them from taking Latvia and Lithuania next? Their morality?

If no, then why do we assume leadership won’t back down and sue for negotiations if we raise the stakes in Ukraine?

Simple really... They'd get REKT, that's it.

Russia is by no measure weak militarily in European terms, but they can't take on dozens of countries with total military spending up in the trillions.

[Person Man]

Another question doves really need to answer, is Russian leadership currently willing to go to war with NATO?

If yes…then what exactly is stopping them from taking Latvia and Lithuania next? Their morality?

If no, then why do we assume leadership won’t back down and sue for negotiations if we raise the stakes in Ukraine?

Simple really... They'd get REKT, that's it.

Russia is by no measure weak militarily in European terms, but they can't take on dozens of countries with total military spending up in the trillions.

They would be outspent 5-7:1, yes. It would be fun to see them try. It would be fun to see the Kremlin as a glass-surfaced crater.

[urutzizu]

Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang in WaPo Opinion piece:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/15/china-ambassador-us-where-we-stand-in-ukraine/

There have been claims that China had prior knowledge of Russia’s military action and demanded Russia delay it until the Winter Olympics concluded. Recent rumors further claimed that Russia was seeking military assistance from China. Let me say this responsibly: Assertions that China knew about, acquiesced to or tacitly supported this war are purely disinformation. (Note: the word "War", not "military operation"/"Ukraine issue"/"Ukraine crisis" as used in many other/pervious statements)

On Ukraine, China’s position is objective and impartial: The purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter must be fully observed; the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously; and all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.

Given this, threats against Chinese entities and businesses, as uttered by some U.S. officials, are unacceptable. (note: referring to possible secondary sanctions against Chinese businesses) Neither war nor sanctions can deliver peace. Wielding the baton of sanctions at Chinese companies while seeking China’s support and cooperation simply won’t work.

Some people are linking Taiwan and Ukraine to play up the risks of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This is a mistake. These are totally different things. Ukraine is a sovereign state, while Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory.

Increasing and clear distancing from Russia by China. On another note, like, Qin Gang is excellent. Especially on the difference between Taiwan and Ukraine. He both lays out the common sense and decent view while also embedding the veiled allusion to the American double standard and sinophobia: As stated clearly multiple times by President Biden, US will defend a territory (Taiwan) by military force, which it itself (and the World, and Taiwan's constitution) recognizes as Chinese. Yet it steadfastly and explicitly refuses to intervene when an actual internationally recognized sovereign state is subject to a war of aggression by a larger neighbor.

[Silent Hunter]

Another question doves really need to answer, is Russian leadership currently willing to go to war with NATO?

If yes…then what exactly is stopping them from taking Latvia and Lithuania next? Their morality?

If no, then why do we assume leadership won’t back down and sue for negotiations if we raise the stakes in Ukraine?

Simple really... They'd get REKT, that's it.

Russia is by no measure weak militarily in European terms, but they can't take on dozens of countries with total military spending up in the trillions.

They would be outspent 5-7:1, yes. It would be fun to see them try. It would be fun to see the Kremlin as a glass-surfaced crater.

But you wouldn't be able to see it because you wouldn't be able to get there after the nuclear war.

[Storr]

Mmmmm....spicy foreign military volunteer drama:

https://twitter.com/KassyDillon/status/1503801724791836676?s=20&t=7F4i3P5_cB...

https://twitter.com/KassyDillon/status/1503818901095858182?s=20&t=7F4i3P5_cB...

https://twitter.com/KassyDillon/status/1503826062232403971?s=20&t=7F4i3P5_cB...

[Storr]

Forgetting petty drama, this could be big news:

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1503848942995488777?s=20&t=ITHLMaiQg1Vv...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Forgetting petty drama, this could be big news:

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1503848942995488777?s=20&t=ITHLMaiQg1Vv...

Obviously these countries should have their inventories backfilled should they choose to sell critical weaponry to Ukraine, but that they seem not to have sent certain things already without the guarantee of backfill proves that the solidarity only runs so deep and that strength of feeling does not translate into seamless cooperation. They understand their fate is tied to Ukraine's to some extent, but fixate on local peacetime defence as opposed to sending equipment to where it is most needed.

I hope this meeting signals a turning point, but I'm a little skeptical. For reference:

- Poland has MiG-29s (they can't count on US support in this matter and I'd doubt Britain if I were them, but France should have been enough support)
- The Czech Republic and Poland both have SAMs more powerful than MANPADS that have not, to our knowledge, been sent to Ukraine

Czechia announced their largest yet package of military aid yesterday and did not disclose the details, and all of the Prime Ministers involved said aid (from their countries and the EU as a whole) was discussed with Zelensky today, so perhaps this is about to change, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Edit: Zelensky is meeting the US Congress tomorrow. Perhaps it can start to apply pressure in the right places with regards to the systems Ukraine needs most, although the push for jets (unfortunately) seems to have fractured along partisan lines.

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1503864619932205065

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1503864619932205065

Assuming those helicopters were operational before they got cooked (which is likely), this is the most significant strike for which there is public video evidence. This looks to be the second-worst day for Russia's air force so far.

[Meclazine for Israel]

DW reporting from inside Mariupol which is in a dire state. Russians are increasing the intensity of artillery of shelling in Kiev.

Mariupol Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKke0HZFwzk

In other news, female journalist Marina Ovsyannikova has been fined for protesting on national Russian TV. Her Instagram page is still live despite Vladimir Putin threatening to ban Instagram. Maybe it's just banned inside Russia.

https://www.instagram.com/ovsiannikova62167/

Marina was fined 30,000 roubles. Marina is posting her news on Instagram stories flat out.

And further developments on the Germans getting their Luftwaffe back up and running with F-35's.