Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torrain]

Government heads from Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia are headed to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy

https://mobile.twitter.com/P_Fiala/status/1503632915334377473

[Torrain]

Here in the UK, Parliament sat for a session that ran into the wee hours of the morning, to thrash out details on the Economic Crime (Transparency and Enforcement) Act. The original bill was full of holes, but a number of loopholes appear to have been closed thanks to motions from opposition MPs.   

Almost certainly a precursor to a new round of personal sanctions on oligarchs living in London in the coming week.

Latest reporting on the bill below (unfortunately, I’ve had to use an article from the London Evening Standard, which, while reputable, is itself owned by an oligarch who is chummy with the PM, friendly enough for Boris to make him a member of the House of Lords - which helps you understand the depth on the problem…)
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-russia-oligarch-sanctions-economic-crime-bill-parliament-boris-johnson-b988095.html?amp

Information on progress/content of bill https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3120

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Government heads from Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia are headed to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy

https://mobile.twitter.com/P_Fiala/status/1503632915334377473

Very risky to do this without a ceasefire. I hope they have cleared with their deputies that their deaths would not be used as a pretext to go to war with Russia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was browsing a Japanese video site and got a Ukraine-related ad for basically the first time yet since the conflict began. (Second thing is what the ad looks like when you feed the page through Google Translate)
This is what it takes you to
Left-click, "Translate to English" if need be.
It seems they are raising money for humanitarian aid in Ukraine.
Good for them. Ukraine needs all the humanitarian help it can get.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Things looking pretty ugly in Ukraine now.



Dnipro under attack and many cities surrounded.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

This is nothing but appeasement

Please can people stop using this utterly moronic word when talking about all out nuclear war.

Thanks.

Do we really have to start explaining the basics we knew back in the 1980s all over again?

[Omega21]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

This is nothing but appeasement

Please can people stop using this utterly moronic word when talking about all out nuclear war.

Thanks.

Do we really have to start explaining the basics we learned back in the 1980s all over again?

No BrO wE NeEd To NuKe ThEm FiRsT

[CumbrianLefty]

But let's also be clear about this - nuclear weapons are literally the only thing keeping Russia remotely relevant. Without them it would be a laughable banana republic, if not a totally failed state.

The last few weeks have revealed that pretty starkly, if nothing else.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Things looking pretty ugly in Ukraine now.



Dnipro under attack and many cities surrounded.

Is Dnipro under ground attack yet? My understanding is that Zaporizhia would have to fall first if attacked from the South, and/or Izyum, Kharkiv and the heavily concentrated Ukrainian forces on the Donbas line from the north / east.

Certainly still not a great situation... Mykolaiv, Kherson and Melitopol are the only proper Ukrainian cities to have fallen iirc. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Would like a Zaporizhia update, cause that's where the bottom Red arrow is pointed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't know where that map comes from, but others are available which show things a bit differently.

[Person Man]

Don't know where that map comes from, but others are available which show things a bit differently.

It still illustrates that Russians are trying different fast advances, but not really gaining more territory at an overly concerning rate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Talks of open war against Russia are a red herring that plays right into the appeasers' hand, by shifting the conversation away from all the other things the US and Europe could be doing right now to support Ukraine but they don't do, including supplies of more advanced equipment (SAMs, fighter jets) and sanctions on Russian energy exports. Let's please keep the focus squarely on those.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Some videos like this may have already been posted, but I will continue to applaud the insanely brave response from the Ukrainian people, even in occupied cities. Imagine attending a protest in front of an armed enemy soldier! Simply badass.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1503275852334776324?s=20&t=XUmGKBWlE...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1502973427916939265?s=20&t=XUmGKBWlE...

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1503705570842456070?s=20&t=XUmGKBWlE3HDSrTyMi...

https://twitter.com/dillipmahapatra/status/1503320724869885955?s=20&t=XUmGKB...

We can only hope that peace finds its way to Ukraine ASAP before Putin decides to seriously start squashing civil resistance and commit even more war crimes.

[jaichind]

RUB strengthens to 110. Gold and oil back down to close to pre war periods.  For now the market expect the sanctions war to stabilize at status quo. 

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

This is nothing but appeasement

Please can people stop using this utterly moronic word when talking about all out nuclear war.

Thanks.

Do we really have to start explaining the basics we knew back in the 1980s all over again?

Here's a really good primer on deterrence between nuclear powers:
https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Don't know where that map comes from, but others are available which show things a bit differently.

It still illustrates that Russians are trying different fast advances, but not really gaining more territory at an overly concerning rate.

Putin's offensive appears to have stalled for the moment, while his forces blast away at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy, try to take Mariupol and consolidate their hold on Mykolaiv enough that they can try for Odessa.

Putin's forces also appear to have run out of reserves for the moment, and are scraping the bottom of the barrel in an attempt to find more bodies to throw into the war.

[Torie]

1. I don't anyone here is advocating that the US use nukes to the extent necessary to save Ukraine. The comments about some posters being war mongers or doomerist I think is unfair and misplaced and unhelpful. The risk of nukes being used arises from Putin doing it in desperation, not from the West. Nobody really knows what that man is capable of, particularly if he fails to get much out of his invasion which in turn makes his grip on power more problematical, and indeed his very life.

2. The worst news story was the one about China bailing Putin out, but the prospect of that seems to have abated, which is good news.

3. I have listened to many "experts" now say that getting to Ukraine more effective air defense missiles to take out the source of the incoming into Ukrainian cities is the most effective thing that can be done, along with whatever supplies are necessary to avert a humanitarian crises.

4. It is reasonable to ask whether any more red lines from the West are appropriate. That would be a productive discussion. Is the use of MAD (chemical, tactical nukes, biological) a red line? How about just the massive shelling of cities killing hundreds of thousands? Is that a red line where actions should be taken to stop it? Unpleasant things to think about sure, and hopefully they will not happen, and the odds that they will happen, remain low. But again, who knows what is in Putin's head, and what will trigger him? I don't. Below is a link to an article laying out red lines the author proposes. Some of them do not make much sense to me at first blush, but at least the article is a point of departure for discussion.

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/598114-warning-stark-choices-ahead-for-the-us-and-nato

5. The odds of number 4 happening are reduced if Ukraine can more effectively protect its skies with effective missiles. And Zelenksy now says Putin sounds a bit less maximalist than before. Whether that is for show or real remains to be seen.

[ugabug]

Wonder if we won't start seeing large scale Ukrainian counter attacks then.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503713698879348738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw... 

[jaichind]

WSJ: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

[Storr]

Wonder if we won't start seeing large scale Ukrainian counter attacks then.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503713698879348738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw... 

If large scale counter attacks were pursued, I wonder the Ukrainian command's top priority would be.  Maybe relieving Mairupol?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wonder if we won't start seeing large scale Ukrainian counter attacks then.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503713698879348738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
  

Some limited counterattacks should be expected, but large-scale ones could be quite difficult. Russia seems to have an edge in the air (they’ll probably do better against enemy convoys in the open), it has a huge advantage in terms of artillery and armour (even after their losses) and the weapons shipments to Ukraine lend themselves much better to defence. Urban fighting will not be easy even if most locals support the Ukrainian army.

If a large-scale counteroffensive is to succeed, it’ll likely come when Russia is much more depleted of manpower and long after all of its offensives have ground to a halt. This could take weeks or months. In the build-up to one, I’d expect to see Ukraine receiving lots of heavy weaponry (most likely ex-Soviet) instead of shipments overwhelmingly dominated by light arms.

If the Ukrainians launched a risky counteroffensive or two and took heavy losses, that could tip the balance back in Russia’s favour. It would not be done lightly.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

This is nothing but appeasement

Please can people stop using this utterly moronic word when talking about all out nuclear war.

Thanks.

Do we really have to start explaining the basics we knew back in the 1980s all over again?

Here's a really good primer on deterrence between nuclear powers:
https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/

Off topic, but that guy also has a really good primer on why the Dothraki are stupid and wrong, look it up while you are there.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wonder if we won't start seeing large scale Ukrainian counter attacks then.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503713698879348738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
  

If large scale counter attacks were pursued, I wonder the Ukrainian command's top priority would be.  Maybe relieving Mairupol?

Mariupol provides a great example of the risks of counteroffensives. The Ukrainian army must think of it as the Syrian rebels did Aleppo, as they have also lost most of the surrounding areas. The Syrian rebels launched a huge counteroffensive to reconnect the besieged, dense urban areas to the countryside and their forces in Idlib, and they did not focus on taking all of the government-held countryside first. They did this without any serious counter to Russian airstrikes.

It worked - the siege was relieved, for a couple of weeks. But in the open fields, rebels suffered heavy losses much faster and the new supply line to the city was kept thin by Syrian forces. This meant it could be (and was) constantly bombarded. The rebel force in Aleppo probably fell faster than it otherwise would have because it (and those who could occupy Syrian forces elsewhere) expended disproportionate resources on a doomed counteroffensive.

[Storr]

Translation: "The importance of good logistics should never be underestimated, just ask Putin."

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1503725108199923713?s=20&t=zDwbV0uiMIj...

[Storr]

When thinking about possible terms of a truce or settlement, the public opinion of Ukrainians is important to remember:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1503734735150923784?s=20&t=Mrf1T2...

When you invade a country, the population unites against you. Who knew?

"In particular, in 2020, 73% of Ukrainians supported the return of the occupied territories of Donbass in all possible ways . In the case of Crimea , support has increased even more - in 2020, only 68% supported the deoccupation of the peninsula."