Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[2952-0-0]

And even if this WERE possible, you ignore that Russia would never accept that kind of humiliation and would be forced to escalate in a way they do have capabilities of doing. Which would only ADD more tragedy to Ukraine situation. Your whole mindset in this forum is one of escalation when what we need is de-escalation.

There are 2 simultaneous truths regarding this whole conflict:

1. Ukraine needs to keep existing on any possible level.
2. Russia cannot have a humiliation that forces them to escalate this to something larger.

The Russians are already pulling out all their capabilities to fight this war, or at least without threatening Putin's rule. They are not holding anything back in case they "need" to escalate, because they have already escalated as far as they can.

In fact, all but one of Russia's air defences have been revealed to be ineffective against Ukrainian attacks, and the Russians are now moving their only S-500 unit - previously defending Moscow - to defend Crimea. In other words, Russia outside Crimea is now defenceless against Ukrainian air attacks just as Ukraine is receiving its first F-16s. That's already a humiliation, which according to Russia's own white paper, would justify a nuclear retaliation.

So, such a humiliation that would "force" Russia to escalate has already long come and gone. What next?

[axiomsofdominion]

And even if this WERE possible, you ignore that Russia would never accept that kind of humiliation and would be forced to escalate in a way they do have capabilities of doing. Which would only ADD more tragedy to Ukraine situation. Your whole mindset in this forum is one of escalation when what we need is de-escalation.

There are 2 simultaneous truths regarding this whole conflict:

1. Ukraine needs to keep existing on any possible level.
2. Russia cannot have a humiliation that forces them to escalate this to something larger.

The Russians are already pulling out all their capabilities to fight this war, or at least without threatening Putin's rule. They are not holding anything back in case they "need" to escalate, because they have already escalated as far as they can.

In fact, all but one of Russia's air defences have been revealed to be ineffective against Ukrainian attacks, and the Russians are now moving their only S-500 unit - previously defending Moscow - to defend Crimea. In other words, Russia outside Crimea is now defenceless against Ukrainian air attacks just as Ukraine is receiving its first F-16s. That's already a humiliation, which according to Russia's own white paper, would justify a nuclear retaliation.

So, such a humiliation that would "force" Russia to escalate has already long come and gone. What next?

I assume he means they'd start nuking stuff. In which case his opposite position on Israel, who also has nukes, makes no sense.

[2952-0-0]

I assume he means they'd start nuking stuff. In which case his opposite position on Israel, who also has nukes, makes no sense.

The Kremlin has been threatening nukes every other Thursday for the past two years. In any case, every nuclear power (except North Korea) has lost a war without ending the world. The less this is mentioned, the more credible the deterrent.

[axiomsofdominion]

I assume he means they'd start nuking stuff. In which case his opposite position on Israel, who also has nukes, makes no sense.

The Kremlin has been threatening nukes every other Thursday for the past two years. In any case, every nuclear power (except North Korea) has lost a war without ending the world. The less this is mentioned, the more credible the deterrent.

I agree, but that is the guy's argument even if it is bad.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1801725415037538566?s=12
Russian tg sources in the are collaborating this as well lol
“In Volchansk, the situation at the Aggregate Plant is still the same, some of our guys remain cut off on its territory, and it’s impossible to get through to them”
https://t.me/motopatriot/23947

[axiomsofdominion]

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615627505448088

Elimination of Russian BMP-2 and 5 troops. Russians should go home.

[jaichind]

Switzerland  Peace Conference

160 world leaders invited
57 heads of state will attend although a total of 92 will attend in some form

This report counts Kamala Harris as head of state (Biden will be attending a fundraiser and will not attend)

[jaichind]

NYT publishes 2022 Russia-Ukraine draft agreement.  Mostly the same was what Putin and the Russias have said about this deal in the past.

Both sides agreed to exclude Crimea from the agreement, leaving it under Russian control but accepted that Ukraine did not recognize this.

The two sides agreed to “resolve issues related to Crimea” in 15 years, but peacefully

Ukraine should never join NATO or other alliances.

Ukraine was only allowed to join the EU.

The document provided for limiting the number of Armed Forces and equipment. Ukrainians were ready to accept such restrictions but sought higher boundaries. They wanted a military of up to 100K, 147 mortars, and 10 combat helicopters.

The range of Ukrainian missiles should have been limited(40 km.)

Ukraine wanted its allies to commit to sending troops to Ukraine if it was attacked. Among the security guarantor countries was Russia, which tried to include Belarus there.

Russia demanded that Ukraine make Russian the state language and lift all sanctions.

Russia wanted to include the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as part of this deal.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Very fitting that jaichind‘a first posts here since his ban isn’t about the topic he loves spamming the most (Russian economic news) considering it isn’t going to well right now 😬

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/russia-overtakes-japan-to-become-the-fourth-largest-economy-in-the-world-in-ppp-terms/ar-BB1nCnto#

"Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms"



World Bank's latest assessments have Russia becoming the 4th largest economy as of 2021 and remaining ahead of Japan in 2022 and 2023.  It makes sense that the sanctions war against Russia has had a limited impact.  It is a lot harder to sanction an economy larger than Japan than an economy the size of Italy.  What also helps Russia is that PRC and India which both have large economies are also not restricting trade with Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/russia-overtakes-japan-to-become-the-fourth-largest-economy-in-the-world-in-ppp-terms/ar-BB1nCnto#

"Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms"



World Bank's latest assessments have Russia becoming the 4th largest economy as of 2021 and remaining ahead of Japan in 2022 and 2023.  It makes sense that the sanctions war against Russia has had a limited impact.  It is a lot harder to sanction an economy larger than Japan than an economy the size of Italy.  What also helps Russia is that PRC and India which both have large economies are also not restricting trade with Russia.

Weeks old article vs this week when the ruble got killed in the market lol

[KaiserDave]

The Russian proposed terms for a diplomatic settlement are so obviously a set-up for invading a few years down the line it's comical.

[jaichind]

Weeks old article vs this week when the ruble got killed in the market lol

Not sure what you are talking about.  The latest round of sanctions means Russia has moved to use CNY as the reference currency.  The proxy RUB-USD rate is now at 89.6 which if anything is stronger than it was back in April.  The JPM CPI adjusted index for RUB is at its highest since Jun 2023 and higher than the index before the war.  This means RUB is stronger than it was before the war after taking into account CPI differentials.

[oldtimer]

Weeks old article vs this week when the ruble got killed in the market lol

Not sure what you are talking about.  The latest round of sanctions means Russia has moved to use CNY as the reference currency.  The proxy RUB-USD rate is now at 89.6 which if anything is stronger than it was back in April.  The JPM CPI adjusted index for RUB is at its highest since Jun 2023 and higher than the index before the war.  This means RUB is stronger than it was before the war after taking into account CPI differentials.

Wars are determined not by currency exchange rates or CPI rates or any useless fluff.

But on the actual military production rates of aircraft, vehicles and ammunition.

Ukraine makes 100k drones a day with 100k workers on it: 1 drone per person per day.
Russia makes 20 fighter jets per year with 355k workers on it: 0.0000001 fighter per person per day.

Who do you think wins with these rates ?

[Beet]

Weeks old article vs this week when the ruble got killed in the market lol

Not sure what you are talking about.  The latest round of sanctions means Russia has moved to use CNY as the reference currency.  The proxy RUB-USD rate is now at 89.6 which if anything is stronger than it was back in April.  The JPM CPI adjusted index for RUB is at its highest since Jun 2023 and higher than the index before the war.  This means RUB is stronger than it was before the war after taking into account CPI differentials.

Wars are determined not by currency exchange rates or CPI rates or any useless fluff.

But on the actual military production rates of aircraft, vehicles and ammunition.

Ukraine makes 100k drones a day with 100k workers on it: 1 drone per person per day.
Russia makes 20 fighter jets per year with 355k workers on it: 0.0000001 fighter per person per day.

Who do you think wins with these rates ?

Nobody is "winning" this war, certainly not Ukraine. The only real winner is Peter Thiel and Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, etc.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Weeks old article vs this week when the ruble got killed in the market lol

Not sure what you are talking about.  The latest round of sanctions means Russia has moved to use CNY as the reference currency.  The proxy RUB-USD rate is now at 89.6 which if anything is stronger than it was back in April.  The JPM CPI adjusted index for RUB is at its highest since Jun 2023 and higher than the index before the war.  This means RUB is stronger than it was before the war after taking into account CPI differentials.

Wars are determined not by currency exchange rates or CPI rates or any useless fluff.

But on the actual military production rates of aircraft, vehicles and ammunition.

Ukraine makes 100k drones a day with 100k workers on it: 1 drone per person per day.
Russia makes 20 fighter jets per year with 355k workers on it: 0.0000001 fighter per person per day.

Who do you think wins with these rates ?

Nobody is "winning" this war, certainly not Ukraine. The only real winner is Peter Thiel and Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, etc.

I swear the invocation of Iraq war era rhetoric to this conflict is one is the most obnoxious developments

[Storr]

"russian occupiers in Crimea are preparing to take all museum collections from the peninsula to russia.
The heads of museum institutions of Crimea received a letter from the so-called "Ministry of Culture of the Republic of Crimea".
Managers were ordered to prepare museum valuables for "evacuation", that is, for theft."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1801904715992555672

[All Along The Watchtower]

Russia - Needs a guarantee domestically that it “won” the war (the only thing that will make it end, as its an existential matter for Russia) and achieved their initial goals and ensuring Eastern Ukraine territories become a buffer zone between the West and Russia is the best way to claim that.

How is this war an existential matter for Russia? Why should there be any “buffer zone” in Ukraine?

[CumbrianLefty]

"This war is existential for Russia" is the purest most transparent propaganda. Its about as clearly and obviously a "war of choice" as there has ever been.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia - Needs a guarantee domestically that it “won” the war (the only thing that will make it end, as its an existential matter for Russia) and achieved their initial goals and ensuring Eastern Ukraine territories become a buffer zone between the West and Russia is the best way to claim that.

How is this war an existential matter for Russia? Why should there be any “buffer zone” in Ukraine?

This literally could be applied to Israel seeing as Hamas has the whole “push the Jews to the sea” stuff going on and they also are a nuclear power but I don’t see Red rushing to say Israel’s feelings should be respected. It’s really funny how he loves to accuse pro-Ukraine posters of viewing the conflict in black vs white and “this ain’t a marvel” and all that but he literally bases his whole foreign policy positions on anti-US/Western campism.

[Red Velvet]

Russia - Needs a guarantee domestically that it “won” the war (the only thing that will make it end, as its an existential matter for Russia) and achieved their initial goals and ensuring Eastern Ukraine territories become a buffer zone between the West and Russia is the best way to claim that.

How is this war an existential matter for Russia? Why should there be any “buffer zone” in Ukraine?

This literally could be applied to Israel seeing as Hamas has the whole “push the Jews to the sea” stuff going on and they also are a nuclear power but I don’t see Red rushing to say Israel’s feelings should be respected. It’s really funny how he loves to accuse pro-Ukraine posters of viewing the conflict in black vs white and “this ain’t a marvel” and all that but he literally bases his whole foreign policy positions on anti-US/Western campism.

Be a man and actually say “Palestine” because you know that’s who is actually being targeted and punished by Israel. Civilians are the ones dying and being displaced, not Hamas terrorists.

You try to pose so much as a Ukraine + Palestine supporter but I’ve noticed that you don’t really care much about the Israel/Palestine conflict at all and often just use it in a shallow way to supposedly validate your position in Ukraine/Russia (what you’re real passionate about) after many people started with the comparisons of Israel = Russia and Palestine = Ukraine.

So you always give superficial criticism of Israel while still staying on the fence and using Pro-Israel language like that in order to implicitly suggest that what Israel is doing is validated as their target is just Hamas and not random Palestinians.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Russia - Needs a guarantee domestically that it “won” the war (the only thing that will make it end, as its an existential matter for Russia) and achieved their initial goals and ensuring Eastern Ukraine territories become a buffer zone between the West and Russia is the best way to claim that.

How is this war an existential matter for Russia? Why should there be any “buffer zone” in Ukraine?

This literally could be applied to Israel seeing as Hamas has the whole “push the Jews to the sea” stuff going on and they also are a nuclear power but I don’t see Red rushing to say Israel’s feelings should be respected. It’s really funny how he loves to accuse pro-Ukraine posters of viewing the conflict in black vs white and “this ain’t a marvel” and all that but he literally bases his whole foreign policy positions on anti-US/Western campism.

Be a man and actually say “Palestine” because you know that’s who is actually being targeted and punished by Israel. Civilians are the ones dying and being displaced, not Hamas terrorists.

You try to pose so much as a Ukraine + Palestine supporter but I’ve noticed that you don’t really care much about the Israel/Palestine conflict at all and often just use it in a shallow way to supposedly validate your position in Ukraine/Russia (what you’re real passionate about) after many people started with the comparisons of Israel = Russia and Palestine = Ukraine.

So you always give superficial criticism of Israel while still staying on the fence and using Pro-Israel language like that in order to implicitly suggest that what Israel is doing is validated as their target is just Hamas and not random Palestinians.

Both of you are wrong . Palestine is if like the Azov Battalion controlled Ukraine and then launched multiple terrorist attacks at Russia over the years .  If that was the case then Russia actually would have been justified in invading Ukraine but that was not the case so this comparison is ridiculous.

The fact is it’s actually ridiculous to see so many leftists like you two defend Radical Islamist states and demonize Israel for actually wanting to finally get rid of that regime . If you guys don’t want Israel to do it then put pressure on Egypt to invade Gaza and occupy it .

The only moral position is supporting both Ukraine and Israel . Anyway I know what you response to that is gonna be so let me say the nations I blame the most in this is France and Germany . They completely obstructed our ability to deal with Russia and went to the bat for Islamists time and time again even though it wasn’t in their interests to do either of those things

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia - Needs a guarantee domestically that it “won” the war (the only thing that will make it end, as its an existential matter for Russia) and achieved their initial goals and ensuring Eastern Ukraine territories become a buffer zone between the West and Russia is the best way to claim that.

How is this war an existential matter for Russia? Why should there be any “buffer zone” in Ukraine?

This literally could be applied to Israel seeing as Hamas has the whole “push the Jews to the sea” stuff going on and they also are a nuclear power but I don’t see Red rushing to say Israel’s feelings should be respected. It’s really funny how he loves to accuse pro-Ukraine posters of viewing the conflict in black vs white and “this ain’t a marvel” and all that but he literally bases his whole foreign policy positions on anti-US/Western campism.

Be a man and actually say “Palestine” because you know that’s who is actually being targeted and punished by Israel. Civilians are the ones dying and being displaced, not Hamas terrorists.

You try to pose so much as a Ukraine + Palestine supporter but I’ve noticed that you don’t really care much about the Israel/Palestine conflict at all and often just use it in a shallow way to supposedly validate your position in Ukraine/Russia (what you’re real passionate about) after many people started with the comparisons of Israel = Russia and Palestine = Ukraine.

So you always give superficial criticism of Israel while still staying on the fence and using Pro-Israel language like that in order to implicitly suggest that what Israel is doing is validated as their target is just Hamas and not random Palestinians.

Yes I’m aware of that and think it’s bs. I’m not giving this argument legitimacy I’m saying you can extrapolate your bad logic on Russia towards Israel and you don’t see it as you’re a complete hack. Also I’ve given to Red Cross for Gaza refugees and ended by friendships with OSR and GMac over their  disgusting positions on the conflict so don’t give me this crap I sit in the fence about it just because I don’t post in the war thread as much as this one

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia - Needs a guarantee domestically that it “won” the war (the only thing that will make it end, as its an existential matter for Russia) and achieved their initial goals and ensuring Eastern Ukraine territories become a buffer zone between the West and Russia is the best way to claim that.

How is this war an existential matter for Russia? Why should there be any “buffer zone” in Ukraine?

This literally could be applied to Israel seeing as Hamas has the whole “push the Jews to the sea” stuff going on and they also are a nuclear power but I don’t see Red rushing to say Israel’s feelings should be respected. It’s really funny how he loves to accuse pro-Ukraine posters of viewing the conflict in black vs white and “this ain’t a marvel” and all that but he literally bases his whole foreign policy positions on anti-US/Western campism.

Be a man and actually say “Palestine” because you know that’s who is actually being targeted and punished by Israel. Civilians are the ones dying and being displaced, not Hamas terrorists.

You try to pose so much as a Ukraine + Palestine supporter but I’ve noticed that you don’t really care much about the Israel/Palestine conflict at all and often just use it in a shallow way to supposedly validate your position in Ukraine/Russia (what you’re real passionate about) after many people started with the comparisons of Israel = Russia and Palestine = Ukraine.

So you always give superficial criticism of Israel while still staying on the fence and using Pro-Israel language like that in order to implicitly suggest that what Israel is doing is validated as their target is just Hamas and not random Palestinians.

Both of you are wrong . Palestine is if like the Azov Battalion controlled Ukraine and then launched multiple terrorist attacks at Russia over the years .  If that was the case then Russia actually would have been justified in invading Ukraine but that was not the case so this comparison is ridiculous.

The fact is it’s actually ridiculous to see so many leftists like you two defend Radical Islamist states and demonize Israel for actually wanting to finally get rid of that regime . If you guys don’t want Israel to do it then put pressure on Egypt to invade Gaza and occupy it .

The only moral position is supporting both Ukraine and Israel . Anyway I know what you response to that is gonna be so let me say the nations I blame the most in this is France and Germany . They completely obstructed our ability to deal with Russia and went to the bat for Islamists time and time again even though it wasn’t in their interests to do either of those things

I demonize Israel for wanting to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip.

[jaichind]

The joint communiqué of the Summit on Peace for Ukraine does not refer to “aggression” as Ukraine wants it but uses the word “war.”  I suspect this is the work of India who did attend but clearly not the head of state.