Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[BlueSwan]

If Russia does manage to turn itself into a functional (somewhat liberal) democracy, the only sane thing to do is Marshall Plan 2.0.

That’s a very big if. But yes, I 100% agree that this would be the thing to do. Both from a security perspective and a financial perspective. A truly democratic Russia would be a huge benefit to the west and to world peace in general.

[NOVA Green]

ISR assets around Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1500173852260777985

[Storr]

By the end of all this, Russia will be (permanently) so cut down to size as a Great Power that we may no longer have to hold Europe's hand next time -they will be more than capable of dealing with Russia on their own if it misbehaves again.  

I've been pondering how a break up of Russia could work (Putin and Russian officials and propagandists have frequently hyped up the prospect of disintegration due to "foreign actors" as a reason to support the government). North Caucasus independence is an obvious outcome. I'm not sure about what else because almost all (hello Tuva and Tatarstan) of what would be left is homogenous ethnically Russian.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is so weird... At 0:17, you can see Putin's hand just going through the microphone. He's not in the room with those people:

https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/1500125004062679041

Putin is so magic, he can touch and walk through things others can't!

Nope, the truth is now out: Vladmir Putin is just a virtual simulation.  Have any of you ever actually met him in person?  I suspect not.

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether, once this is said and done, Russia will be forced to pay reparations or whether there will be a dispute over the question of lifting sanctions, possibly beyond Putin's reign. Since this is an unprovoked attack on a sovereign country, Russia definitely must pay reparations to the government and the people of Ukraine for everything they have done.

Sure, if the West wants to follow emotions instead of logic and reason, it should impose reparations.

Remember who was forced to pay reparations after WW1, and what that lead to?

There is a reason America didnt suck Germany/Japan/the Axis dry after WW2. They realized that it does not work, breeds resentment & instability, and ultimately leads back to square 1.

If Russia does manage to turn itself into a functional (somewhat liberal) democracy, the only sane thing to do is Marshall Plan 2.0.

One doesn't rule out the other. Russia is still rich of natural ressources and giving at least something to Ukrainians for the immense suffering inflicted on them. I'm not talking about punishing the regular Russian just trying to feed his family.

If the current regime and their elites were gone (big if), I guess that would benefit a lot of common people in Russia. Let's not forget many of them live in poverty while oligarchs enrich themselves from the ressources.

[Person Man]

I wonder whether, once this is said and done, Russia will be forced to pay reparations or whether there will be a dispute over the question of lifting sanctions, possibly beyond Putin's reign. Since this is an unprovoked attack on a sovereign country, Russia definitely must pay reparations to the government and the people of Ukraine for everything they have done.

Sure, if the West wants to follow emotions instead of logic and reason, it should impose reparations.

Remember who was forced to pay reparations after WW1, and what that lead to?

There is a reason America didnt suck Germany/Japan/the Axis dry after WW2. They realized that it does not work, breeds resentment & instability, and ultimately leads back to square 1.

If Russia does manage to turn itself into a functional (somewhat liberal) democracy, the only sane thing to do is Marshall Plan 2.0.

One doesn't rule out the other. Russia is still rich of natural ressources and giving at least something to Ukrainians for the immense suffering inflicted on them. I'm not talking about punishing the regular Russian just trying to feed his family.

If the current regime and their elites were gone (big if), I guess that would benefit a lot of common people in Russia. Let's not forget many of them live in poverty while oligarchs enrich themselves from the ressources.

All I know is that Russians shouldn’t be trusted with running their own affairs so long as they can’t without putting the lives of millions in danger.

[WMS]

Hmm maybe some more hopeful things:

https://twitter.com/nowarn0/status/1500210903027175424?s=21

https://twitter.com/catalishus2/status/1498110460373180418?s=21

https://twitter.com/jane5daisy/status/1498109649064710146?s=21

Everything the World Central Kitchen does is wonderful.

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1498048308878594048?s=21
Like this.

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1499946090644353026?s=21
Maybe, about those jets?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1500172904406921219

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Putin will be a DEAD MAN walking once the United States has a Republican President in 2025. Given the Comments made by Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina there is every indication once the US switches Power to a Republican President that President could then authorize a Special Operation just like Obama did with Bin Laden in 2010 to capture or kill Putin.

Remember: Soft Joe Biden was even against capturing or killing Bin Laden in 2010 and Obama had to overrule him!

Trump will hug and kiss him to death?

Trump will not be President. Pence, DeSantis I suspect could indeed authorize such a Special Operation. Putin has to stand TRAIL, period!

Sure, because it will be super easy taking Putin out.

Lindsey Graham and Mike Pence can talk all they want, they don`t hold any responsibility.

Biden on the other hand has to deal with reality. He has to be carefull with all his moves. Because WWIII and nuclear war are real possibilities.  

Failure to sanction gas and oil is not to prevent WWIII. This administration has openly sent deadly weaponry to Ukraine, which was more likely (although still extremely unlikely) to start WWIII.

This is about consumerism and Biden's reelection, or (as Scholz's administration put it) "social peace in Germany."

[Logical]

Something very strange about the death of the Ukrainian negotiator killed today. First reports say he was killed for resisting arrest as he was a double agent, but now the Ukrainian military intelligence agency honored him as one of their own. Most perplexing story of this war yet.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500209804878430208

[politicallefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1500139415062069257?cxt=HHwWkoCyxbK2y...

I'm sure his intentions are pure. More likely, he's waiting for the US to impose sanctions or outright ban Russian oil and then blame high gas prices on the Biden Administration. If we as Americans are not prepared to accept $5-6/gallon gas prices, we have truly lost our way. I do think the federal government should do everything it can to help alleviate those prices within the domestic sphere, but not at the expense at easing the pressure on Putin. It's a minor sacrifice. If we can't accept an inconvenience such as that and would rather keep the money flowing to Putin and his oligarchs, we are probably the most pathetic nation on Earth. I don't think and I certainly hope the American people aren't that self-centred.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1499946090644353026?s=21
Maybe, about those jets?

There was this today, which strongly implies the jets haven't been sent in any significant numbers (if at all):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1500174453115953157
A number of Senators have started publicly calling for it to happen, which is good news for the UkrAF if it can hold out long enough for support to build in the right places. Not sure why Zelensky isn't also demanding more long-range SAMs; perhaps the price tag makes that a less achievable goal.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Battle of the embassies in South Africa


https://mobile.twitter.com/GermanEmbassySA/status/1500032894261211138

[Frodo]

By the end of all this, Russia will be (permanently) so cut down to size as a Great Power that we may no longer have to hold Europe's hand next time -they will be more than capable of dealing with Russia on their own if it misbehaves again.  

I've been pondering how a break up of Russia could work (Putin and Russian officials and propagandists have frequently hyped up the prospect of disintegration due to "foreign actors" as a reason to support the government). North Caucasus independence is an obvious outcome. I'm not sure about what else because almost all (hello Tuva and Tatarstan) of what would be left is homogenous ethnically Russian.  

I didn't mean in terms of territory.  I mean that I want Russia so weak it can't undertake any foreign adventures, but strong enough that it can still guard its borders effectively and stay territorially intact. 

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe this has been posted yet although I did provide some previous coverage of MNC's in the Oil Sector pulling out of Russia a couple days ago.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8504528#msg8504528


Basically after pulling out of Russia, Shell bought Russian oil within a few days at bottom basement bargain prices (providing the Russian Gvt with critical money), and will now be "donating all of their profits of Ukrainian refugees".

Slippery weasels.... they really thought people wouldn't notice?

(Per CNN 1 Hour ago)

"Shell Oil commits profits from Russian oil purchase to Ukrainian refugees

Shell Oil, Europe’s largest oil company, has said it will donate the profits from a recent purchase of Russian crude oil to a fund designed to help Ukrainian refugees following criticism from Ukraine's foreign minister.

“We will commit profits from the limited amount of Russian oil we have to purchase to a dedicated fund," the company said in a statement. "We will work with aid partners and humanitarian agencies over the coming days and weeks to determine where the monies from this fund are best placed to alleviate the terrible consequences that this war is having on the people of Ukraine.”
Shell Oil purchased the oil at a significant discount, saying it had to in order to meet and satisfy purchase orders from prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, said the oil smelled of "Ukrainian blood" in a Saturday tweet.

"I call on all conscious people around the globe to demand multinational companies to cut all business ties with Russia," he said.

"

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-05-22/index.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1500230617404956678

Vogel writes that there are discussions to use Venezuelan oil as a substitute for Russian oil (presumably, after lifting sanctions on one and imposing them on the other). These are different kinds of crude oil (Venezuela's is heavier and dirtier), so I'm not sure this would actually work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1500225329595617286

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1500230617404956678

Vogel writes that there are discussions to use Venezuelan oil as a substitute for Russian oil (presumably, after lifting sanctions on one and imposing them on the other). These are different kinds of crude oil (Venezuela's is heavier and dirtier), so I'm not sure this would actually work.

This is punishment for Miami Dade.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1500225329595617286

While the "gentle" part is objectively true for the first few days of the invasion (not anymore), how the hell does he not see anything heroic about an actor suddenly turning Commander & leading his forces from the front line in a David vs Goliath type of scenario...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1500234311802437637

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1500234311802437637

Mastercard too:

https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/1500236064107249664

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is so weird... At 0:17, you can see Putin's hand just going through the microphone. He's not in the room with those people:

https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/1500125004062679041

He is - it's sh**t Twitter compression. The BBC have verified that the video is real and you can watch a higher-quality version on Youtube.

Not the first time the bird app's bad algorithms have been conflated with greenscreens.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1500236562713530369

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1500234311802437637

Mastercard too:

https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/1500236064107249664

Paypal as well... saw it earlier today but didn't post the link.

"PayPal Suspends Operations in Russia

PayPal Holdings Inc. said Saturday it is suspending operations in Russia, the latest financial services company to distance itself from the country because of the attack on Ukraine.

The move follows the big U.S. payments company’s decision earlier this week to suspend taking on new accounts in Russia. Together they reinforce actions that isolate Russia from the global financial system. A PayPal spokesman said the company had a small number of employees in Russia.

“Under the current circumstances, we are suspending PayPal services in Russia,” Dan Schulman, PayPal’s chief executive, said in a statement. The exit will take some time as the company works to process customer withdrawals to ensure that account balances are dispersed in line with applicable laws and regulations, a PayPal spokesperson said.

Earlier this month, U.S. payment card networks, Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. stopped handling transactions for Russian-sanctioned financial institutions. In practice, this means that many Russians are blocked from making purchases of goods or services outside the country.

PayPal said it is also suspending its international money-transfer service Xoom in Russia. That is consistent with rivals such as Remitly Global Inc. and Wise PLC that have taken the same action. Russia’s central bank has blocked or placed limits on customers moving money out of the country using banks and money transfer services."

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/paypal-suspends-operations-in-russia-6KSnhALVjRYwU0aTApFY

[Ferguson97]

Some more details on Visa/MasterCard.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1500239116625379329