Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093

"Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace"



This seems to be the deal that Putin was talking about a year ago so most of these terms are fairly well known

The deal being discussed were

1) Ukraine potentially joining the EU but not military alliances like NATO

2) Crimea remains under unconditional Russian control. The future of the Donass be determined in personal negotiations between Zelensky and Putin.

3) Other occupied territories by Russia after February 24, 2022, were not mentioned in the article, but it was stated that Russian troops agreed to withdraw from them.

4) Foreign weapons and troops cannot be sent to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army was to be reduced to certain levels.

5) The Russian language was to be used alongside Ukrainian in official spheres, but Ukraine did not agree. (It seems Ukraine has rejected this item during talks)

6) Security for Ukraine in the agreement would be guaranteed by the 5 Permanent members of the  Security Council.

6) International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea. Russia wanted Belarus to be added as a guarantor, while Ukraine wanted Turkey. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Russia proposed that all guarantor states agree on a response, but Ukraine opposed this, wanting its airspace to be closed and requiring the guarantor states to establish a no-fly zone and provide weapons. Russia disagreed with this.

-> At this stage any peace terms will be much harder than this.  I think the EU for Ukraine will be out and there will be clear territorial losses as well as no NATO.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Macron runs his mouth off, but his government is still blocking the purchase of ammunition from outside the EU despite his claim that this would no longer happen. Don’t put much stock in his word.

Just watch, the Franco-Spanish-Swedish expeditionary force is going to go into Ukraine any day now. Who ever said that the Europeans don't have independent foreign policies?

The French have a real military. Swedes have a decent military up to a point due to being Swiss-style neutral forever although I think theirs is more naval in character which is of very limited use for Ukraine. Spain is WTF, maybe it's influenced by anti-Catalan independence/borders are sacrosanct and should not be changed vibes.

It's just their militaries can't compare to the juggernaut of NATO, the U.S.

I disagree if anything the Swedish military strength is in the sky. Gripens are absolute beasts of fighter jets

No one talks about Swedish industrial capacity but they have it. In a previous life I worked with Bromma a lot and them and a Chinese company named RAM pretty much control all cargo port crane spreader business globally.

6) International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea. Russia wanted Belarus to be added as a guarantor, while Ukraine wanted Turkey. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Russia proposed that all guarantor states agree on a response, but Ukraine opposed this, wanting its airspace to be closed and requiring the guarantor states to establish a no-fly zone and provide weapons. Russia disagreed with this.

If you're the Russians, I think you'd be glad with Turkey. Historical regional rivals and they are a NATO member, but that's Erdogan Turkey. I get why they'd want Belarus, but Belarus doesn't really add much to Ukraine's security just looking at military capacity nuts and bolts.

[CumbrianLefty]

Scholz was definitely out of order saying what he did.

[Storr]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093

"Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace"



This seems to be the deal that Putin was talking about a year ago so most of these terms are fairly well known

The deal being discussed were

1) Ukraine potentially joining the EU but not military alliances like NATO

2) Crimea remains under unconditional Russian control. The future of the Donass be determined in personal negotiations between Zelensky and Putin.

3) Other occupied territories by Russia after February 24, 2022, were not mentioned in the article, but it was stated that Russian troops agreed to withdraw from them.

4) Foreign weapons and troops cannot be sent to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army was to be reduced to certain levels.

5) The Russian language was to be used alongside Ukrainian in official spheres, but Ukraine did not agree. (It seems Ukraine has rejected this item during talks)

6) Security for Ukraine in the agreement would be guaranteed by the 5 Permanent members of the  Security Council.

6) International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea. Russia wanted Belarus to be added as a guarantor, while Ukraine wanted Turkey. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Russia proposed that all guarantor states agree on a response, but Ukraine opposed this, wanting its airspace to be closed and requiring the guarantor states to establish a no-fly zone and provide weapons. Russia disagreed with this.

-> At this stage any peace terms will be much harder than this.  I think the EU for Ukraine will be out and there will be clear territorial losses as well as no NATO.

Such an agreement would have left Ukraine defenseless. Their military would have been cut to a size where it could not defend the country from a future Russian invasion. Additionally, nothing in the proposed agreement (such as NATO membership) would have prevented Russia from violating whatever security agreement the peace deal involved, similar to how Russia has violated multiple international agreements since 2014. Basically this agreement meant peace = Ukrainian disarmament.

 

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-claims-german-generals-discussed-blowing-crimean-bridge-1875261

"Russia Claims German Generals Discussed Blowing Up Crimean Bridge"

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spionage-verdacht-bei-der-bundeswehr-mad-ermittelt-wegen-in-russland-geleaktem-audio-a-56519a97-a3a2-4c0c-a4f9-778fd0976996

"MAD is investigating suspicions of espionage in the Bundeswehr"

Spiegel says that the Russian claimed recording seems real and the German military intelligence has launched an investigation on this breech.  

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-f-16-fighter-jets-war-russia-base-runway/

"Diva jets: Why ‘sensitive’ F-16s will be hard work for Ukraine"

But getting the fighters flying will be hugely difficult. The bases will be prime targets for Russian attack, the planes themselves will be marked by Russian air defense systems, repairing them will be a challenge and even using unprepared runways could sabotage the delicate aircraft.

Excuses are already making the rounds.  This article is mostly about protecting the F-16 brand as far as international sales are concerned if it underperforms when it shows up in Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-finance-meeting-marred-by-divisions-over-seizing-russian-assets-2024-02-28/

"G7 finance meeting marred by divisions over seizing Russian assets"

The main issue here is there is clear pushback on key financial institutions within the G7 including the central banks

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-defenses-avdiivka.html

"Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance"
 

[jaichind]

https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/entreprises/defense/economie-de-guerre-comment-la-france-fait-face-a-la-penurie-de-poudre-pour-la-production-d-obus_AV-202403010084.html

"WAR ECONOMY: HOW FRANCE FACES THE SHORTAGE OF POWDER FOR SHELL PRODUCTION"



France is faced with an acute shortage of gunpowder necessary for the production of large-caliber missiles for the AFU

[Hindsight was 2020]

At this point the spamming is less awful than the fact that said spam is the same stuff over and over with nothing new to contribute

[Storr]

Hopefully this is true:

"Ukraine may receive the first batch of 800,000 shells "within weeks" as part of a Czech-led initiative to finance the purchase of 155mm artillery shells from third countries, Bloomberg reported on 2 March."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763915915287040411?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-finance-meeting-marred-by-divisions-over-seizing-russian-assets-2024-02-28/

"G7 finance meeting marred by divisions over seizing Russian assets"

The main issue here is there is clear pushback on key financial institutions within the G7 including the central banks

So, the people who have skin in the game object to it the most. That's how it is...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully this is true:

"Ukraine may receive the first batch of 800,000 shells "within weeks" as part of a Czech-led initiative to finance the purchase of 155mm artillery shells from third countries, Bloomberg reported on 2 March."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763915915287040411?s=20

One wonders how much third world military industries would profit from this shell shortage. Are shell prices impacted by supply and demand in a 1:1 way?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093

"Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace"



This seems to be the deal that Putin was talking about a year ago so most of these terms are fairly well known

The deal being discussed were

1) Ukraine potentially joining the EU but not military alliances like NATO

2) Crimea remains under unconditional Russian control. The future of the Donass be determined in personal negotiations between Zelensky and Putin.

3) Other occupied territories by Russia after February 24, 2022, were not mentioned in the article, but it was stated that Russian troops agreed to withdraw from them.

4) Foreign weapons and troops cannot be sent to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army was to be reduced to certain levels.

5) The Russian language was to be used alongside Ukrainian in official spheres, but Ukraine did not agree. (It seems Ukraine has rejected this item during talks)

6) Security for Ukraine in the agreement would be guaranteed by the 5 Permanent members of the  Security Council.

6) International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea. Russia wanted Belarus to be added as a guarantor, while Ukraine wanted Turkey. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Russia proposed that all guarantor states agree on a response, but Ukraine opposed this, wanting its airspace to be closed and requiring the guarantor states to establish a no-fly zone and provide weapons. Russia disagreed with this.

-> At this stage any peace terms will be much harder than this.  I think the EU for Ukraine will be out and there will be clear territorial losses as well as no NATO.

Number 4 is a massive dealbreaker .

[lfromnj]

Hopefully this is true:

"Ukraine may receive the first batch of 800,000 shells "within weeks" as part of a Czech-led initiative to finance the purchase of 155mm artillery shells from third countries, Bloomberg reported on 2 March."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763915915287040411?s=20

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093


4) Foreign weapons and troops cannot be sent to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army was to be reduced to certain levels.

Number 4 is a massive dealbreaker .

number 4 shows how confident Russia was here. Maybe one or two of the elements of it might be part of a deal between two entities, but the entire thing together turns it into a Versailles type deal minus the war blame provision.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

South Korea, India, Pakistan, and Egypt all strike me as possible candidates.

[lfromnj]

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

South Korea, India, Pakistan, and Egypt all strike me as possible candidates.

Pakistan is already known, Egypt is pretty likely as well due to the financial situation. I doubt India is involved and South Korea has somewhat already done something indirectly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

South Korea, India, Pakistan, and Egypt all strike me as possible candidates.

Pakistan is already known, Egypt is pretty likely as well due to the financial situation. I doubt India is involved and South Korea has somewhat already done something indirectly.

Well, if there's anything to Indian foreign policy it's that it's willing to go its own way to help India, above all else. So I wouldn't put it past them.

[rc18]

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

South Korea, India, Pakistan, and Egypt all strike me as possible candidates.

Pakistan is already known, Egypt is pretty likely as well due to the financial situation. I doubt India is involved and South Korea has somewhat already done something indirectly.

Indian-made 155mm munitions have already been seen being used by Krabs.

[Badger]

https://time.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger/

"Ukraine Can’t Win the War"



Yes, Ukraine cannot win the war in the sense that 1991 or even 2022 borders are no longer possible. But there is every reason to believe they can avoid losing the war.

These thinkpieces show that the press are willing to try to profit from selling doom. If there's not enough evidence for that already.

That's not how this works. Stuff like this doesn't get written unless high-up people in government are already whispering it to them. You can throw in to that also op-eds from connected folks in the New York Times and Washington Post.

Hahahahaha! No.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

South Korea, India, Pakistan, and Egypt all strike me as possible candidates.

Pakistan is already known, Egypt is pretty likely as well due to the financial situation. I doubt India is involved and South Korea has somewhat already done something indirectly.

Indian-made 155mm munitions have already been seen being used by Krabs.

Par for course.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/mar/1/american-tech-fueling-russian-war-machine-lawmaker/

"American tech fueling Russian war machine, lawmakers say"

“American manufacturers are fueling and supporting the growing and gargantuan Russian war machine,” the Connecticut Democrat said. “They are used in missiles, drones, munitions and other weapons of war. The Russians are relying on American technology.”

[jaichind]

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/verteidigungsministerium-bestaetigt-einen-abhoerfall-bei-der-luftwaffe-19559221-p2.html

"Ministry of Defense confirms an interception case in the Air Force"



Despite the scandal surrounding the interception of a conversation between German officers by the Russians, Scholz’s position on the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine has not changed due to his assertion that such systems will require German troops to be in Ukraine to operate the system.

[jaichind]

And the includes the topic of aid to Ukraine without significant Dem concessions on border security/immigration.