Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

One confusing thing is: If the Russians are eavesdropping on the Germans, which I am sure they are, why would they disclose information they learned from the eavesdropping which would give away how they are doing it?  A more likely scenario is internal political factions within Germany are leaking this information to the Russians who then made it public which was the main purpose of the leak anyway.   

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3253928/europe-battles-gunpowder-shortage-supply-shells-ukraines-defence-against-russia

"Europe battles gunpowder shortage to supply shells for Ukraine’s defence against Russia"



It seems the EU gunpower shortage is made worse by the lack of cotton from the PRC.  Perhaps it is time to get rid of "Uyghur slave labor" sanctions on Xinjiang.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1764275494701125835?s=12
I’m curious if Ukraine is better utilizing AD or if Russia has their planes fly dangerous missions as there was noticeable uptick on TG of Russian jets being destroyed

[jaichind]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/canada-pledges-millions-gender-inclusive-effort-remove-landmines-ukraine

"Canada pledges millions to 'gender-inclusive' effort to remove landmines from Ukraine"



This seems to be from

https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/backgrounders/2024/02/24/canada-announces-additional-support-ukraine

Gender-inclusive demining for sustainable futures in Ukraine
Funding: $4 million
This project from the HALO Trust aims to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of Ukrainians, including women and internally displaced persons, by addressing the threat of explosive ordnance present across vast areas of the country. Project activities include conducting non-technical surveys and subsequent manual clearance in targeted communities; providing capacity building to key national stakeholders; and establishing a gender and diversity working group to promote gender-transformative mine action in Ukraine.

I wonder what is "gender-transformative mine action"?  Is this using the right pronouns as one is removing mines from Ukraine battlefield?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One confusing thing is: If the Russians are eavesdropping on the Germans, which I am sure they are, why would they disclose information they learned from the eavesdropping which would give away how they are doing it?  A more likely scenario is internal political factions within Germany are leaking this information to the Russians who then made it public which was the main purpose of the leak anyway.   

So it would be mutual using of each other essentially.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3253928/europe-battles-gunpowder-shortage-supply-shells-ukraines-defence-against-russia

"Europe battles gunpowder shortage to supply shells for Ukraine’s defence against Russia"

It seems the EU gunpower shortage is made worse by the lack of cotton from the PRC.  Perhaps it is time to get rid of "Uyghur slave labor" sanctions on Xinjiang.

That may be a wise step. You really can't get everything you want. Usually. So it's worth thinking in terms of a prioritization question more than anything else.

[jaichind]

One confusing thing is: If the Russians are eavesdropping on the Germans, which I am sure they are, why would they disclose information they learned from the eavesdropping which would give away how they are doing it?  A more likely scenario is internal political factions within Germany are leaking this information to the Russians who then made it public which was the main purpose of the leak anyway.   

So it would be mutual using of each other essentially.

In the Chinese language press, the are several versions of rumors on how it took place.  The 3 versions are which involve the PRC or Singapore listening in on the German conversation.

a) Singapore -> Russia
b) Singapore -> PRC -> Russia
c) PRC -> Russia

Of course, Russia could not release this without the approval of where they got the information, including if it was PRC or Singapore.

[lfromnj]

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-johnson-opens-door-for-alternative-ukraine-aid-package-in-house/

Seems like some house Rs agree with me. Killing Russians is good but giving money to corrupt Ukrainian bureaucracy  is a job for Europe.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/04/ukraine-mobilization-zelensky-russia/

"Zelensky in bind over how to draft more troops as Russian forces advance"

Zelensky's inability to forge a political consensus on a mobilization strategy — despite months of warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front — has fueled deep divisions in Ukraine's parliament and more broadly in Ukrainian society. It has left the military relying on a hodgepodge of recruiting efforts and sown panic among fighting-age men, some of whom have gone into hiding, worried that they will be drafted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death given that aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Washington.

[jaichind]

Bild: “Attention, Putin is listening”

What is funny is Bild says the problem is not that Germans are planning to fire rockets at Russia but the Russians found out about it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/04/ukraine-mobilization-zelensky-russia/

"Zelensky in bind over how to draft more troops as Russian forces advance"

Zelensky's inability to forge a political consensus on a mobilization strategy — despite months of warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front — has fueled deep divisions in Ukraine's parliament and more broadly in Ukrainian society. It has left the military relying on a hodgepodge of recruiting efforts and sown panic among fighting-age men, some of whom have gone into hiding, worried that they will be drafted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death given that aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Washington.

It seems this is a big giant game of hot potato.
Mobilizing more people puts a increased strain on almost everything one way or another.

[Lord Halifax]

Bild: “Attention, Putin is listening”

What is funny is Bild says the problem is not that Germans are planning to fire rockets at Russia but the Russians found out about it.

nah, that's just common sense

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bild: “Attention, Putin is listening”

What is funny is Bild says the problem is not that Germans are planning to fire rockets at Russia but the Russians found out about it.

nah, that's just common sense

What does "firing rockets at the Russians" even mean in this context specifically?

[jaichind]

What does "firing rockets at the Russians" even mean in this context specifically?

It relates to

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-claims-german-generals-discussed-blowing-crimean-bridge-1875261

"Russia Claims German Generals Discussed Blowing Up Crimean Bridge"

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spionage-verdacht-bei-der-bundeswehr-mad-ermittelt-wegen-in-russland-geleaktem-audio-a-56519a97-a3a2-4c0c-a4f9-778fd0976996

"MAD is investigating suspicions of espionage in the Bundeswehr"

Spiegel says that the Russian claimed recording seems real and the German military intelligence has launched an investigation on this breech.  

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/04/europe/russia-ukraine-vulnerable-defenses-avdiivka-intl/index.html

"Villages tumble as Russia exposes Ukraine’s vulnerable defenses"

A series of swift Russian advances have challenged Ukraine’s new line of defense set up after their withdrawal from the key town of Avdiivka and are raising fears about Kyiv’s tactics and momentum on the front lines.

[jaichind]

Another interesting quote from the article

Syrsky has been tasked with auditing the existing armed forces to find more combat-eligible troops, after Zelensky's office recently announced that of the 1 million people who have been mobilized, only about 300,000 have fought at the front lines. But nearly a month after his promotion, no one in the military leadership or the presidential administration has explained where those 700,000 are — or what they have been doing.

Remember, Zelensky said KIA is 31K.  So, yeah, where are the missing 700K people?  Maybe they have all been sent to re-paint the Presidential Palace?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/04/ukraine-mobilization-zelensky-russia/

"Zelensky in bind over how to draft more troops as Russian forces advance"

Zelensky's inability to forge a political consensus on a mobilization strategy — despite months of warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front — has fueled deep divisions in Ukraine's parliament and more broadly in Ukrainian society. It has left the military relying on a hodgepodge of recruiting efforts and sown panic among fighting-age men, some of whom have gone into hiding, worried that they will be drafted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death given that aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Washington.

[Gass3268]

Map of Russian war aims:

https://twitter.com/united24media/status/1764612947144274014?s=46

[jaichind]

Map of Russian war aims:

https://twitter.com/united24media/status/1764612947144274014?s=46

I think that map came from Medvedev a year ago and was mostly meant as a troll.  His main point was to hint at the fact that Russia would not be that interested in what happens to Western Ukraine which used to be part of Austria-Hungary and not considered part of Russia Mir and if Hungary, Poland, and Romania want to take over these areas Russia does not mind.

[Storr]

"Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov says that Russia's much vaunted T-14 Armata tank won't be used in Ukraine because it's "too expensive"

So it was designed and built solely for Victory Day parades on Red Square?
https://ria.ru/20240304/armata-1930916994.html"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1764603143277457609?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map of Russian war aims:

https://twitter.com/united24media/status/1764612947144274014?s=46

I think that map came from Medvedev a year ago and was mostly meant as a troll.  His main point was to hint at the fact that Russia would not be that interested in what happens to Western Ukraine which used to be part of Austria-Hungary and not considered part of Russia Mir and if Hungary, Poland, and Romania want to take over these areas Russia does not mind.

That would make sense what we know about Medvedev and how we've seen him act over the course of this war.

[jaichind]

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/internacional/20240303/economia-ucrania-modo-supervivencia-guerra-prolongada-98765303

"Ukraine's economy goes into survival mode for a protracted war"

Former Ukrainian minister Sheremeta: "the Ukrainian economy is experiencing great difficulties to meet both military and social expenditures.”

Loans issued to Ukraine is $114 billion or 76% of GDP

[jaichind]

https://www.merkur.de/politik/eu-armee-wehrfaehigkeit-belgien-russland-ukraine-krieg-waffen-munition-produktion-92868357.html

"“We are in deep sh**t”: Top military from Belgium raises the alarm about EU military capability"

Marc Thys, retired lieutenant general and former Vice-Chef de la Défense of the Belgian armed forces, has now sounded the alarm – again. Because he had already said: “After a few hours we would have to throw stones.” He now emphasized to Bayerischer Rundfunk (BR) that it was no joke. “Inventories are extremely low, especially when it comes to high-quality ammunition,” says Thys. But apparently it's not easy to fill them up again. You have to consider delivery times.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov says that Russia's much vaunted T-14 Armata tank won't be used in Ukraine because it's "too expensive"

So it was designed and built solely for Victory Day parades on Red Square?
https://ria.ru/20240304/armata-1930916994.html"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1764603143277457609?s=20

This reminds me of stories from the Iraq War era where US troops avoided using particularly expensive ammunition to fight insurgents.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Last month was the worst month for Ukraine in terms of net change of territory since January 2023.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1764431653345153468

[Hindsight was 2020]

EU aims to shift european arms industry to "war economy mode”
And now we’re going to see the trickle down of the House causing US to abandon Ukraine as these proposals are going to see Europe gradually cut down its purchase of U.S. weapons exports in favor of domestic development. So good going blue avatars you guys hurt both our economy and geopolitical standing. On the flip side this is great news for Ukraine as they are going to be apart of this program
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-aims-shift-european-arms-industry-war-economy-mode-2024-03-04/