Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/poll-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-election-1876375

"Zelensky Receives Polling Blow from His Former Top Lieutenant"



So far McClellan is well ahead of Lincoln

Polls has it at  Zaluzhny 67.5     Zelensky 32.5

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/western-allies-split-how-make-vladimir-putin-pay-russia-ukraine-war/

"Western allies split over how to make Putin pay "

Behind the scenes, the Biden administration is frustrated at Europe’s unwillingness to confiscate Moscow’s assets to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Sure.  But most of those assets are in Euroclear and if they take the money it will be their reputation on the line and not the USA.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/europe/eastern-ukraine-soldiers-civilians-fears-intl-cmd/index.html

"Soldiers and civilians fear what comes next as Russia gains momentum in eastern Ukraine"

Another woman, who asked to speak anonymously, said Ukrainian soldiers had based themselves near civilians, were drawing Russian fire on the area, and were using up local resources.

“No water, no gas, no power, nothing. When we go for water, there are soldiers getting water too. And they take all the water,” she said.

“They drive straight to the houses where people live. And fire right from the house. They hide behind the civilians’ backs.”

CNN reports that in Chasiv Yar AFU hides behinds civilians

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.newsweek.com/poll-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-election-1876375

"Zelensky Receives Polling Blow from His Former Top Lieutenant"



So far McClellan is well ahead of Lincoln

Polls has it at  Zaluzhny 67.5     Zelensky 32.5

Well elections are canceled unlike with Lincoln-McClellan in 1864, so Zelenskyy is more like Churchill here than Lincoln.

[Woody]

This summer is going to be brutal for Ukraine.

[Storr]

"The necessary amount for the purchase of 800,000 pieces of artillery ammunition for Ukraine from countries outside the European Union has been collected. Czech President Petr Pavel told journalists today during his visit to the Central Bohemian Region. Another 18 countries will participate in the assistance initiated by the Czech Republic. The ammunition should be in Ukraine in the coming weeks.

https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/pavel-castka-na-nakup-munice-pro-ukrajinu-je-shromazdena/2489100"

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1765794972387733664?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.newsweek.com/poll-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-election-1876375

"Zelensky Receives Polling Blow from His Former Top Lieutenant"

So far McClellan is well ahead of Lincoln

Polls has it at  Zaluzhny 67.5     Zelensky 32.5

Good lord that's beyond awful for Zelensky.

[Storr]

https://www.newsweek.com/poll-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-election-1876375

"Zelensky Receives Polling Blow from His Former Top Lieutenant"

So far McClellan is well ahead of Lincoln

Polls has it at  Zaluzhny 67.5     Zelensky 32.5

Good lord that's beyond awful for Zelensky.

Interesting timing:

"News: President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the candidacy of Valery Zaluzhny, former top army general dismissed in February, for the position of Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1765791973925929205?s=20

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.newsweek.com/poll-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-election-1876375

"Zelensky Receives Polling Blow from His Former Top Lieutenant"

So far McClellan is well ahead of Lincoln

Polls has it at  Zaluzhny 67.5     Zelensky 32.5

Good lord that's beyond awful for Zelensky.

Interesting timing:

"News: President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the candidacy of Valery Zaluzhny, former top army general dismissed in February, for the position of Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1765791973925929205?s=20

There were rumors of him getting offered British Ambassador prior to him being removed from command, but yeah, it was give him a cushy job in exchange for sidelining him.

Maybe in Ukraine "Ambassador to the United Kingdom" is analagous to "Secretary of Transportation".  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Cushy but still important given that the UK has generally been the strongest voice for continued/additional support for Ukraine in the broader North American/Western European space. The French Resistance and Polish Underground State guys in WWII London definitely had it easier than did their compatriots back home, but they weren't just sitting around eating crumpets.

But no, it's not surprising that the politician took a huge hit from the power struggle with the general.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1766006226024886741
Sweet and much needed

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poverty-level-russia-dropped-93-2023-says-statistics-service-2024-03-06/

"Poverty level in Russia dropped to 9.3% in 2023, says statistics service"

The impact of the war in terms of mobilization and ramp up of the war economy has continued to drive down poverty rate in Russia to a record low

[jaichind]

Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa

"Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa"

So Macron's logic is that Russia is free to advance everywhere else like on the Dnieper River or Kharkov?  If this is a valid threat then France must project that this choice is a viable option for France.  But if France CAN do this but do not unless Russia advances on Kiev or Odessa then Macron is really saying Russia is free to advance everywhere else.

[jaichind]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/08/state-department-us-embassy-ukraine-kyiv-staffing-diplomats-russia-war/

"State Department Beefs Up U.S. Diplomatic Presence in Kyiv"

One funny note from the article

For instance, Ukrainian companies aren’t licensed under U.S. export law to repair U.S.-made M777 howitzer barrels; they can make copies, but they risk infringing on intellectual property rights in doing so.

Wow, this is funny.  I guess that is what you get for dealing with a country that was founded by lawyers. 

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/poland-nato-russia-france-abd144aee256a72388c196dae8acaf7f

"Poland’s foreign minister says the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine is ‘not unthinkable’"

Poland along with France moving toward a position that NATO troops could intervene in the war

[jaichind]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/9/7445684/

"Zaluzhnyi found unfit for further military service before his appointment as ambassador to UK"

Before leaving for his position as Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, Zaluzhny had to be assessed for military duty and was assessed as unfit for military service.    The idea is anyone that who is fit for military service cannot serve as a diplomat.  So the Ukraine Minister of Defense is on record as saying that the Commander-in-chief of the Ukraine military just a few days ago is unfit for military service.

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republicans-consider-loan-program-ukraine-aid-rcna142562

"House Republicans consider a loan program for some Ukraine aid"

Possible GOP counteroffer on Ukraine aid: How about help on credit?

[jaichind]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-running-out-ukraine

"Time Is Running Out in Ukraine"

Stocks of critical ammunition for frontline Ukrainian units are dwindling, and soldiers are being forced to meet quotas... some units are experiencing significant manpower shortages

[jaichind]

Even Ukraine is getting smart and downsizing government due to fiscal pressure.  Why cannot the USA do the same?

[Storr]

Donald Tusk: "The post-war epoch is gone. We are living in new times: in a pre-war epoch. This is why NATO and solidarity between Europe and America are more important than ever before."

https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/1766448028427182382?s=20

[President Johnson]

I wonder why they even discuss troops on the ground instead of air strikes. Wouldn't that be more effective? A lack of air superiority has always been a weakspot for Ukraine. If a NATO member ever got involved, I'd launch a series of massive air strikes against Russian positions. That would also greatly limit losses, especially by using drones. I'm not a military expert, that would just make more sense to me. Of course it's theoretical as NATO would de facto become a party in the war. At latest when Russia tries to attack the bases or ships from where the drones or fighter jets are launched.

[Woody]

I wonder why they even discuss troops on the ground instead of air strikes.

Because the planes would be shot down

It would be hard even for a NATO power to achieve air superiority in Ukraine as Russians can scatter it's surface-to-air systems several kilometers behind the front lines (Pantsir & S-300/400s).

You're not fighting Saddam's Iraq.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-ukraine-should-have-courage-white-flag-negotiations-2024-03-09/

"Pope says Ukraine should have 'courage of the white flag' of negotiations"

Putin has now weaponizied the Pope?

[oldtimer]

I wonder why they even discuss troops on the ground instead of air strikes. Wouldn't that be more effective? A lack of air superiority has always been a weakspot for Ukraine. If a NATO member ever got involved, I'd launch a series of massive air strikes against Russian positions. That would also greatly limit losses, especially by using drones. I'm not a military expert, that would just make more sense to me. Of course it's theoretical as NATO would de facto become a party in the war. At latest when Russia tries to attack the bases or ships from where the drones or fighter jets are launched.

I don't think you should be personally worried about getting drafted into the war.

The german government is too weak politically and historic memories in germany too strong for that.

But if that happens you can still move to Austria, which is not yet in NATO.

Big political own goals to put the prospect of sending their own troops though, that's how anti-war movements get born, as American Presidents discovered.

It's political self-sabotage.

[oldtimer]

The French army is definitely preparing for war with Russia:

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-soldiers-under-fire-train-for-what-war-is-like/

They are going for a Combined Arms approach.