Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Russian offensive continues West of Avdivka.  Not that not only does Russia not have to deal with fortified positions like in Avdivka but they have the edge of attacking from the high ground

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-anniversary-west-lost-b2501626.html

"Two years of war: Ukraine warns West it will be Putin’s next target if Russia is allowed to win"



Ukraine's version of domino theory

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"



Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"



Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"

Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

I would think so.   The largest cause of death on the battlefield is being killed by artillery so if Ukraine is running short on shells that takes away their ability to inflict losses on the Russians 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"

Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

I would think so.   The largest cause of death on the battlefield is being killed by artillery so if Ukraine is running short on shells that takes away their ability to inflict losses on the Russians 

And the military tactics for both Ukraine and Russia are reliant on artillery to become dominant on the battlefield. This means they are particularly hungry for shells.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1762055913081385170

Russian troops are now storming Tonenke. The momentum after the fall of Avdivka has not stopped and the Russian army is taking advantage of the Ukrainian withdrawal to seize control of the towns to the west until it reaches the Ukrainian defence line. The situation of the Ukrainian army is worrying, as it is losing personnel at the cost of holding on to frontline positions for a short time before being forced to abandon them. The smart thing to do would be to withdraw to the defence line between Karlivske Reservoir and Ocheretyne and from there shell the attacking Russian forces, which would advance slowly through the abandoned area under Ukrainian artillery and drone fire. This technique was used by the Russian army during the successful Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov. Outnumbered and outgunned, Russian troops withdrew beyond the Oskil River to build a new line of defence around the Svatove heights. Ukrainian troops seized a large area on this bank of the river. However, they were unable to advance any further.
The reasons for this decision may possibly lie in the frictions in the Ukrainian manod after Zaluznhy's dismissal and the Ukrainian government's need to avoid territorial losses as a bargaining chip for new aid packages.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"

Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

I would think so.   The largest cause of death on the battlefield is being killed by artillery so if Ukraine is running short on shells that takes away their ability to inflict losses on the Russians  

And the military tactics for both Ukraine and Russia are reliant on artillery to become dominant on the battlefield. This means they are particularly hungry for shells.

That was always Soviet defense structure to worship the god of artillery (they're both post-Soviet states). Some Western military comments after the start of the conflict was one reason the Russians performed poorly at the outset was they were trying to win without artillery in a U.S. in Iraq-style delusion of "they will welcome us as liberators" when heavy artillery use was how their army was setup strategically and was how they always trained.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"

Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

I would think so.   The largest cause of death on the battlefield is being killed by artillery so if Ukraine is running short on shells that takes away their ability to inflict losses on the Russians 

And the military tactics for both Ukraine and Russia are reliant on artillery to become dominant on the battlefield. This means they are particularly hungry for shells.

That was always Soviet defense structure to worship the god of artillery (they're both post-Soviet states). Some Western military comments after the start of the conflict was one reason the Russians performed poorly at the outset was they were trying to win without artillery in a U.S. in Iraq-style delusion of "they will welcome us as liberators" when heavy artillery use was how their army was setup strategically and was how they always trained.

That conclusion isn't disagreeable, It's a pretty decent explanation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"

Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

I would think so.   The largest cause of death on the battlefield is being killed by artillery so if Ukraine is running short on shells that takes away their ability to inflict losses on the Russians  

And the military tactics for both Ukraine and Russia are reliant on artillery to become dominant on the battlefield. This means they are particularly hungry for shells.

That was always Soviet defense structure to worship the god of artillery (they're both post-Soviet states). Some Western military comments after the start of the conflict was one reason the Russians performed poorly at the outset was they were trying to win without artillery in a U.S. in Iraq-style delusion of "they will welcome us as liberators" when heavy artillery use was how their army was setup strategically and was how they always trained.

The misuse of their airforce in the beginning was probably the bigger one with airport battle being the prime example

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-missiles-drones-kharkiv-dnipropetrovsk-eu-leaders-summit-elysee-zelenskiy

"Russia-Ukraine war: several Nato and EU members considering sending soldiers to Ukraine, Slovak PM claims – as it happened
"



Fico says some EU members are now talking about sending troops into Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-missiles-drones-kharkiv-dnipropetrovsk-eu-leaders-summit-elysee-zelenskiy

"Russia-Ukraine war: several Nato and EU members considering sending soldiers to Ukraine, Slovak PM claims – as it happened
"



Fico says some EU members are now talking about sending troops into Ukraine.

This coming from Fico is interesting. Is he catering to domestic supporters here?

[Storr]

"⚡Der Spiegel: Germany conducting negotiations to procure ammunition from India."

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1762062810497114185?s=20

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-missiles-drones-kharkiv-dnipropetrovsk-eu-leaders-summit-elysee-zelenskiy

"Russia-Ukraine war: several Nato and EU members considering sending soldiers to Ukraine, Slovak PM claims – as it happened
"



Fico says some EU members are now talking about sending troops into Ukraine.

This coming from Fico is interesting. Is he catering to domestic supporters here?

Doesn't really match the tone of this Politico Brussels Playbook Newsletter from today. https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/europes-leaders-want-their-mojo-back-to-help-ukraine-win/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"⚡Der Spiegel: Germany conducting negotiations to procure ammunition from India."

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1762062810497114185?s=20

India continues to be among the biggest winners from the war.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doesn't really match the tone of this Politico Brussels Playbook Newsletter from today. https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/europes-leaders-want-their-mojo-back-to-help-ukraine-win/

I guess this is more evidence Fico is playing a double game here. Where that leads him is uncertain, ofc.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/politics/republicans-trump-ukraine-aid/index.html

"Many Republicans will snub Zelensky’s desperate plea for aid. Here’s why"



The reason is simple.  The GOP base is turning against aid to Ukraine, at least turning aid to Ukraine without some concessions in other areas.  That is Trump's position and Trump is winning a massive majority of the GOP vote in the primaries. 

[jaichind]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So how much territory does UA lose around Avdiivka anyway? When Russia stops advancing?

[jaichind]

So how much territory does UA lose around Avdiivka anyway? When Russia stops advancing?

I think this.  I think the Russians will keep on advancing until they have logistics issues to prevent the Ukrainians from forming a defensive line.  This was another reason Advivka is important since it was also a rail junction and capturing it hleps the Russians with logistics. 

Russian offensive continues West of Avdivka.  Not that not only does Russia not have to deal with fortified positions like in Avdivka but they have the edge of attacking from the high ground

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So how much territory does UA lose around Avdiivka anyway? When Russia stops advancing?

I think this.  I think the Russians will keep on advancing until they have logistics issues to prevent the Ukrainians from forming a defensive line.  This was another reason Advivka is important since it was also a rail junction and capturing it hleps the Russians with logistics. 

Russian offensive continues West of Avdivka.  Not that not only does Russia not have to deal with fortified positions like in Avdivka but they have the edge of attacking from the high ground

Huh, so not as much land as expected...still a net good for the Russians ofc.

[Woody]

So how much territory does UA lose around Avdiivka anyway? When Russia stops advancing?

Best case scenario: The Ukrainians somehow manage to form a stable defensive line behind the 'Durna' river (Green line). If the Russians manage to even breach beyond those lines who knows how far they will advance. Day-by-day they are advancing faster than I imagined they would.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1762199969295945870

[Hollywood]

So how much territory does UA lose around Avdiivka anyway? When Russia stops advancing?

Best case scenario: The Ukrainians somehow manage to form a stable defensive line behind the 'Durna' river (Green line). If the Russians manage to even breach beyond those lines who knows how far they will advance. Day-by-day they are advancing faster than I imagined they would.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1762199969295945870

Unfortunately for them, this small ridge won't be enough to stop the Russians.  Its roads are not well-protected, and there gaps that aren't well-covered or fortified.  To make matters worse, another large force that's been waiting in Donetsk is preparing to take the High Ground North of this area, and they will wrap around from rail line that passes through Ocheretyne in order to flank that small ridge, as well as the next defensive line along Novoprokrovske. The situation is dire for Ukrainians in this part of the front. Meanwhile, Russia is already taking positions in SE Ivanivske, as well as the heights between that town and Chasiv Yar.  Successes in both relatively close sectors would allow Russia to attack behind Ukraine's most powerful stronghold on the Eastern Front - Toretsk- from opposite directions.   

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

[Hollywood]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July.