Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[PSOL]

A shame, Lula ran one of the worst campaigns of all time offering literally nothing new but a return to a past that no Brazilian really wanted.

What is worst is that in Brazil, with the worst pr disaster of all time as president and degrading living standards; instead of creating a new path for most to trek the Afro-Brazilian, indigenous, LGBTQ+, and working class leaders among others sold out to an even bigger degree and to a wider scope than is usually seen. For what, a domestic agribusiness and multinational sellout who was destined to win irregardless or their endorsement?

It’s good for the world and for most Brazilians that he is gone, but a future where they move into better living standards is now murky with going to trails passed long ago to take us to this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Did most Gomes and Tebet voters go for Bolsonaro? Md if so why?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I know I'm like the millionth person to point this out, but the US parallels really are something. A populist hard-right president, widely scorned by the wider world but has a strong and loyal domestic following. Opponents unite around an elder (and elderly) statesman, polls show the incumbent losing massively, and while he does lose, the margin is much tighter than predicted, and the president's party doesn't have a majority in Congress (slight difference here as Biden does have a congressional majority, narrow as it is, which Lula won't), so it's very much in doubt whether the new President can actually get his platform implemented. I hope there's a peaceful transfer of power, because election disputes in South America don't historically feature fanatics in buffalo costumes, but soldiers with guns and boots.

And on goes the challenge for those of us on the right who aren't into the whole Trump/Bolsonaro style of politics. Moderates will have to co-opt some aspects of the populist right in order to push them back into the fringes, but there's a fine line between co-oping and being co-opted that can be easy to cross.

[Logical]

A little late for this but too good not to share.
https://twitter.com/_jackhy/status/1586851456887537669

[Red Velvet]

Did most Gomes and Tebet voters go for Bolsonaro? Md if so why?

With 99,99% counted:

Lula - 60,3 Million votes (50,9%)
Bolsonaro - 58,2 Million votes (49,1%)

1st round was Lula 57,3M and Bozo 51,1M

Lula gained around 3M while Bozo gained 7M - a transfer of 70% to Bolsonaro and 30% to Lula.

I suspect the huge amount of votes Bolsonaro gained possibly included some few people who had voted for Lula in 1st round though, shifting to Bolsonaro after all the huge amount of economic populism and economic mirages he created in the last month . So it’s not necessarily only that Ciro and Tebet voter mostly shifting Bolsonaro tbh.

The Bozo 70% transfer I had predicted it would correlate with 50,5% Lula victory with 120M votes total, ended up being 50,9% with 118,5M votes overall.

For Bolsonaro to had won with same 118,5 votes, he actually needed to get that 80% transfer for himself minimum, but he fell short.

Funny how the transfer keeps getting more and more concentrated on one single candidate for the runoff, excluding the outlier that was 2006.

2002 - Serra transfer of 52%
2010 - Serra transfer of 55%
2014 - Aécio transfer of 60%
2018 - Haddad transfer of 66%
2022 - Bolsonaro transfer of 70%

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A real victory for global democracy and freedom as well as the environment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A little late for this but too good not to share.
https://twitter.com/_jackhy/status/1586851456887537669

I don't get what "Fabinho's wife" is talking about. I see a name "Rebeca Tavares". I click on her Instagram to see if she's posted anything political. While it's loading, I see its logo...which reminds me of the logo of Rede Globo.
That's what listening to hours of Globo coverage does to you.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did most Gomes and Tebet voters go for Bolsonaro? Md if so why?

With 99,99% counted:

Lula - 60,3 Million votes (50,9%)
Bolsonaro - 58,2 Million votes (49,1%)

1st round was Lula 57,3M and Bozo 51,1M

Lula gained around 3M while Bozo gained 7M - a transfer of 70% to Bolsonaro and 30% to Lula.

I suspect the huge amount of votes Bolsonaro gained possibly included some few people who had voted for Lula in 1st round though, shifting to Bolsonaro after all the huge amount of economic populism and economic mirages he created in the last month . So it’s not necessarily only that Ciro and Tebet voter mostly shifting Bolsonaro tbh.

The Bozo 70% transfer I had predicted it would correlate with 50,5% Lula victory with 120M votes total, ended up being 50,9% with 118,5M votes overall.

For Bolsonaro to had won with same 118,5 votes, he actually needed to get that 80% transfer for himself minimum, but he fell short.

Funny how the transfer keeps getting more and more concentrated on one single candidate for the runoff, excluding the outlier that was 2006.

2002 - Serra transfer of 52%
2010 - Serra transfer of 55%
2014 - Aécio transfer of 60%
2018 - Haddad transfer of 66%
2022 - Bolsonaro transfer of 70%

Also funny how these transfers get bigger and bigger, yet somehow the candidate they boost keeps losing.

[Mike88]

100.00% of the precincts reporting: (472,075/472,075)

50.90% Lula (60,345,999 votes)
49.10% Bolsonaro (58,206,354)

  4.59% Invalid/Blank (5,700,443)

79.42% Turnout (124,252,796)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Typical fascist L

[Pres Mike]

Bravo to Brazil. 80% turnout. 99% of the vote reporting within two hours. Very impressive for a third world nation. US states like Nevada and New York should really do better...

[buritobr]

In every presidential election in Brazil in which there was runoff, the frontrunner in the 1st round was the winner in the runoff too.
However, in every presidential election in Brazil in which there was runoff, except 2006, the margin between the 1st and the 2nd declines in the runoff.

2022 was not different

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

UPHOLD LULISM-BIDENISM-MADURISM

[Frodo]

It's good to see that Brazilian democracy and the Amazon rainforest (with its indigenous communities) now have a second chance at survival.  

[2952-0-0]

More on the Biden Administration's quiet efforts to pressure the Brazilian army not to indulge in anti-democratic fantasies

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

Just when you think you've seen the weirdest political coalition...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

I know lefties are running victory laps here but the real story is that literally every Latin American government that ruled during the pandemic and held an election afterwards has lost.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

UPHOLD LULISM-BIDENISM-MADURISM

Hasta la Ruthkanda siempre!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bravo to Brazil. 80% turnout. 99% of the vote reporting within two hours. Very impressive for a third world nation. US states like Nevada and New York should really do better...

Brazil has mandatory voting although the penalty for not is a very small fine and it's not particularly enforced anyway. But that's why the turnout is well beyond the US.

[South Dakota Democrat]

A shame, Lula ran one of the worst campaigns of all time offering literally nothing new but a return to a past that no Brazilian really wanted.

What is worst is that in Brazil, with the worst pr disaster of all time as president and degrading living standards; instead of creating a new path for most to trek the Afro-Brazilian, indigenous, LGBTQ+, and working class leaders among others sold out to an even bigger degree and to a wider scope than is usually seen. For what, a domestic agribusiness and multinational sellout who was destined to win irregardless or their endorsement?

It’s good for the world and for most Brazilians that he is gone, but a future where they move into better living standards is now murky with going to trails passed long ago to take us to this point.

Irregardless isn't a word.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Apparently some cities in northeast Brazil are holding fireworks celebrations now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good riddance, Messias!

Still kind of shocking an outright fascist got nearly 50% of the vote again. Especially since all the polls throughout the year saw a clear Lula lead. Makes me wonder whether Lula could have won 2018 in the first place.

Anyways, a very good news for climate and the rainforests.

And wait, Lula's VP is the dude that ran against him in 2006? Interesting.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1586992073491845121

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

I know lefties are running victory laps here but the real story is that literally every Latin American government that ruled during the pandemic and held an election afterwards has lost.

Is this a correlation or a causation though?