Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th) (user search)
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  Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)  (Read 147236 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« on: October 02, 2022, 05:28:51 PM »
If Bolsonaro does better than expected and there's a second round, how does he spin this to his "he will win in the first round" supporters? Will he try to encourage them to vote for him again on the offchance he wins in the second round, or still try to burn it all down?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2022, 07:05:40 PM »
Atlas-style
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2022, 07:09:16 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on October 02, 2022, 07:07:59 PM
It feels very reminiscient of 2018, except with a few states flipped and the margins much stronger for the left/weaker for the right.
If anybody has state-by-state results for the first (or second) round of 2018, I can try to make an Atlas-style swing map to go with this.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2022, 07:14:06 PM »

Yep.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2022, 08:04:03 PM »
Here's the swing map for 2018-2022 first round only, going by PT-Bolsonaro margin. Since it's first round only, it'll have some numbers skewed by non-top-tier candidates. Now that I have everything in Excel, I'll mess with the data a bit more later and see what else I can do, but I'm logging off for a few hours.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2022, 10:55:58 PM »
More maps!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2022, 05:52:29 PM »
Atlas-style map



Looks like the only state Bolsonaro has flipped since the first round is Amapá, which makes sense, since that was one of Tebet's best states in the first round. And Bolsonaro's current lead there is only 2.8%.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2022, 10:56:18 PM »
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2022, 11:56:54 PM »
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 30, 2022, 11:02:06 PM
Quote from: Miscellaneous Top Secret Crumpets on October 30, 2022, 10:56:18 PM


UPHOLD LULISM-BIDENISM-MADURISM

Hasta la Ruthkanda siempre!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2022, 02:50:29 PM »
Apparently my crush thinks Lula is sexy. What do you guys think of my new look?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,736
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2022, 01:08:55 AM »
Quote from: Kamala's side hoe on October 31, 2022, 10:20:23 PM
Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)


Quote
A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Tossup Iran and China! Democracy lives!
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