Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Now, talking about the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ
2022 was the 3rd time PT lost in the city. The other 2 were 1994 and 1998. It is the first time in the New Republic (1985-present) that the left wins a presidential election without winning Rio. Before 2022, the last time a candidate supported by a labor party was elected president without winning Rio was Juscelino Kubitschek in 1955.
In 2022, there was no clear income polarization in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro won Barra da Tijuca, a wealthy neighborhood in the West Zone, but he also won the poor neighborhoods in the West Zone. Lula won all the wealthy South Zone (neighborhoods of Leblon, Ipanema, Copacabana, Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras) and also some favelas in the North Zone. Bolsonaro won some poor neighborhoods which are not favelas in the North Zone.
The "bourgueous elites" live in Barra da Tijuca. The "bohemian elites" live in the South Zone.
It's only the third time PT wins in the South Zone. The other 2 were 1989 and 2002. In 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, PT won Rio de Janeiro without winning the South Zone.
Rio de Janeiro used to have a classic income polarization, but a realigment took place in the 2010s. It starts when the leftist Marcelo Freixo ran for mayor, lost the election but won the South Zone. At the beggining, it look like that those results were only a consequence of Freixo's popularity in the South Zone, but after that, all the elections in Rio de Janeiro started to have similar votting pattern: left doing better in the Zone South

[RicardoCampos]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

??

It's an extremely common talking point. It's a huge oversemplification of extremely complex global climate patterns, of course, but the underlying point that the Amazon is pretty freaking important to the planet's ecosystem is pretty universally agreed-upon aside from complete cranks.

We've often heard that rainforests are the lungs of the Earth, providing us with most of our required oxygen. While it is indeed true that rainforests may produce up to a quarter of atmospheric oxygen, most of it is consumed by the rainforests themselves by degradation of organic matter. Most of our atmospheric oxygen actually comes from the oceans.

Oxygen is produced during photosynthesis and all of the oxygen in the atmosphere has been produced by photosynthesising plants and bacteria. Because rainforests are luscious and fast-growing, it has become common to think of them as the lungs of the Earth. It is true that a lot of oxygen is produced there, but almost all of it is consumed simultaneously.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/jdabre11/status/1587197310727065601?s=20&t=zxqs72Nq8xcVn...

I... better not say anything this time.

[RicardoCampos]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

For you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

I just mean it's sad that the world's oldest active democracy is on the rocks worse than a developing nation and young democracy in a region notorious for coups and dictatorships. It's obviously good for Brazil.

Despite the reference to the "region" that was not even named, much of the world, including Europe, has had numerous dictatorships in recent periods. The US supported and conspired in favor of many of them.

The US also has a history of internal wars and recent elections with extremely controversial results.

[Red Velvet]

Well, in 2018 didn’t Bolsonaro get around 92% or so in Miami?

So it’s actually a big swing for Lula there in that city, for Bolsonaro to end up with only 81%. I expected Bolsonaro to be at 85% at worst there. We all know the exact kind of immigrant that goes to live in Florida tbh, not just from Brazil.

[Red Velvet]

Now, talking about the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ
2022 was the 3rd time PT lost in the city. The other 2 were 1994 and 1998. It is the first time in the New Republic (1985-present) that the left wins a presidential election without winning Rio. Before 2022, the last time a candidate supported by a labor party was elected president without winning Rio was Juscelino Kubitschek in 1955.
In 2022, there was no clear income polarization in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro won Barra da Tijuca, a wealthy neighborhood in the West Zone, but he also won the poor neighborhoods in the West Zone. Lula won all the wealthy South Zone (neighborhoods of Leblon, Ipanema, Copacabana, Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras) and also some favelas in the North Zone. Bolsonaro won some poor neighborhoods which are not favelas in the North Zone.
The "bourgueous elites" live in Barra da Tijuca. The "bohemian elites" live in the South Zone.
It's only the third time PT wins in the South Zone. The other 2 were 1989 and 2002. In 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, PT won Rio de Janeiro without winning the South Zone.
Rio de Janeiro used to have a classic income polarization, but a realigment took place in the 2010s. It starts when the leftist Marcelo Freixo ran for mayor, lost the election but won the South Zone. At the beggining, it look like that those results were only a consequence of Freixo's popularity in the South Zone, but after that, all the elections in Rio de Janeiro started to have similar votting pattern: left doing better in the Zone South

Great Rio analysis. It’s exactly like that. The ones who vote for Lula here are different from the rest of the country.

The “cultured well-educated upper classes” from South Zone + Residents of Favelas are the ones who voted for Lula

Meanwhile the “uncultured dumb rich who want to live isolated from the world by living in Barra da Tijuca” + Residents of Militia areas or Poorer non-favela areas voted for Bolsonaro.

[RicardoCampos]

https://twitter.com/jdabre11/status/1587197310727065601?s=20&t=zxqs72Nq8xcVn...
I... better not say anything this time.

No surprises. That's where Brazil's rich go. In times of favorable exchange rates, even the lower middle class would go there, walk around and buy tax-free video games and return to Brazil with the same amount they would have spent to buy a video game in the country.

In fact, Brazil has a very different immigration to the United States than Mexico and the countries of Central America. In these, many poor people are able to make their way over land and seek social assistance in the country, usually from the Democratic Party.

In Brazil, this is impossible given the distance. Most of those who come to the United States to live instead of for tourist reasons are people of a decadent middle class who have a cultural level that allows them to go to the United States on reasonable terms, but some financial difficulty that makes them take that desperate attitude of moving to another country. Most like the free market and love everything that appears in Hollywood advertisements and of course they will vote for Trump and Bolsonaro.

[Alben Barkley]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

For you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

I just mean it's sad that the world's oldest active democracy is on the rocks worse than a developing nation and young democracy in a region notorious for coups and dictatorships. It's obviously good for Brazil.

Despite the reference to the "region" that was not even named, much of the world, including Europe, has had numerous dictatorships in recent periods. The US supported and conspired in favor of many of them.

The US also has a history of internal wars and recent elections with extremely controversial results.

I'm not trying to make some American exceptionalism argument here or something, no need to reach for that. I'm lamenting my own country's democratic backsliding, not putting down any other country.

[buritobr]

Now, talking about the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ
2022 was the 3rd time PT lost in the city. The other 2 were 1994 and 1998. It is the first time in the New Republic (1985-present) that the left wins a presidential election without winning Rio. Before 2022, the last time a candidate supported by a labor party was elected president without winning Rio was Juscelino Kubitschek in 1955.
In 2022, there was no clear income polarization in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro won Barra da Tijuca, a wealthy neighborhood in the West Zone, but he also won the poor neighborhoods in the West Zone. Lula won all the wealthy South Zone (neighborhoods of Leblon, Ipanema, Copacabana, Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras) and also some favelas in the North Zone. Bolsonaro won some poor neighborhoods which are not favelas in the North Zone.
The "bourgueous elites" live in Barra da Tijuca. The "bohemian elites" live in the South Zone.
It's only the third time PT wins in the South Zone. The other 2 were 1989 and 2002. In 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, PT won Rio de Janeiro without winning the South Zone.
Rio de Janeiro used to have a classic income polarization, but a realigment took place in the 2010s. It starts when the leftist Marcelo Freixo ran for mayor, lost the election but won the South Zone. At the beggining, it look like that those results were only a consequence of Freixo's popularity in the South Zone, but after that, all the elections in Rio de Janeiro started to have similar votting pattern: left doing better in the Zone South

Great Rio analysis. It’s exactly like that. The ones who vote for Lula here are different from the rest of the country.

The “cultured well-educated upper classes” from South Zone + Residents of Favelas are the ones who voted for Lula

Meanwhile the “uncultured dumb rich who want to live isolated from the world by living in Barra da Tijuca” + Residents of Militia areas or Poorer non-favela areas voted for Bolsonaro.

Not only the city, but also the state of Rio de Janeiro, is the one which has a divide most similar to the modern US democratic vs republican divide

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/jdabre11/status/1587197310727065601?s=20&t=zxqs72Nq8xcVn...
I... better not say anything this time.

No surprises. That's where Brazil's rich go. In times of favorable exchange rates, even the lower middle class would go there, walk around and buy tax-free video games and return to Brazil with the same amount they would have spent to buy a video game in the country.

In fact, Brazil has a very different immigration to the United States than Mexico and the countries of Central America. In these, many poor people are able to make their way over land and seek social assistance in the country, usually from the Democratic Party.

In Brazil, this is impossible given the distance. Most of those who come to the United States to live instead of for tourist reasons are people of a decadent middle class who have a cultural level that allows them to go to the United States on reasonable terms, but some financial difficulty that makes them take that desperate attitude of moving to another country. Most like the free market and love everything that appears in Hollywood advertisements and of course they will vote for Trump and Bolsonaro.

It’s not limited to Brazil at all! It’s immigrants in Florida in general, which receives lots of wealthy immigration from ALL Latin America and even beyond. Watch how they vote every election lmao

Which is why I always find HILARIOUS when Democrats act like these people are the kind of average Latinos they should cater to while basically giving the middle finger to the Mexicans and Central Americans (mostly) that live in the border states of their country, being way more reliable and easy to create an electoral relationship with.

The more democrats try to cater to these people in Florida, the more Bolsonaro-like they will have to sound.

[buritobr]

Does anyone have exit polls about how different demographics voted? I can't find that on the Wikipedia article.

There was no exit poll, since vote proceeding is very fast. You can check the demographics of the October 29th polls

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

??

It's an extremely common talking point. It's a huge oversemplification of extremely complex global climate patterns, of course, but the underlying point that the Amazon is pretty freaking important to the planet's ecosystem is pretty universally agreed-upon aside from complete cranks.

We've often heard that rainforests are the lungs of the Earth, providing us with most of our required oxygen. While it is indeed true that rainforests may produce up to a quarter of atmospheric oxygen, most of it is consumed by the rainforests themselves by degradation of organic matter. Most of our atmospheric oxygen actually comes from the oceans.

Oxygen is produced during photosynthesis and all of the oxygen in the atmosphere has been produced by photosynthesising plants and bacteria. Because rainforests are luscious and fast-growing, it has become common to think of them as the lungs of the Earth. It is true that a lot of oxygen is produced there, but almost all of it is consumed simultaneously.

Yes, as far as I understand the Amazon's main ecological role is capturing carbon off the atmosphere (you know, the thing that's causing climate change), not producing oxygen. Still a pretty important role no matter how you want to put it.

[RicardoCampos]

I can finally post links! I will start with the comparison of votes by municipality of the 2nd round of 2018 and 2022:

[RicardoCampos]

https://twitter.com/jdabre11/status/1587197310727065601?s=20&t=zxqs72Nq8xcVn...
I... better not say anything this time.

No surprises. That's where Brazil's rich go. In times of favorable exchange rates, even the lower middle class would go there, walk around and buy tax-free video games and return to Brazil with the same amount they would have spent to buy a video game in the country.

In fact, Brazil has a very different immigration to the United States than Mexico and the countries of Central America. In these, many poor people are able to make their way over land and seek social assistance in the country, usually from the Democratic Party.

In Brazil, this is impossible given the distance. Most of those who come to the United States to live instead of for tourist reasons are people of a decadent middle class who have a cultural level that allows them to go to the United States on reasonable terms, but some financial difficulty that makes them take that desperate attitude of moving to another country. Most like the free market and love everything that appears in Hollywood advertisements and of course they will vote for Trump and Bolsonaro.

It’s not limited to Brazil at all! It’s immigrants in Florida in general, which receives lots of wealthy immigration from ALL Latin America and even beyond. Watch how they vote every election lmao

Which is why I always find HILARIOUS when Democrats act like these people are the kind of average Latinos they should cater to while basically giving the middle finger to the Mexicans and Central Americans (mostly) that live in the border states of their country, being way more reliable and easy to create an electoral relationship with.

The more democrats try to cater to these people in Florida, the more Bolsonaro-like they will have to sound.

It's that old American custom of thinking that everyone in other countries is the same person.

Normally, this seems just bullsh**t from internet debates, but see how in this case this attitude interferes with American domestic politics itself.

[RicardoCampos]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

??

It's an extremely common talking point. It's a huge oversemplification of extremely complex global climate patterns, of course, but the underlying point that the Amazon is pretty freaking important to the planet's ecosystem is pretty universally agreed-upon aside from complete cranks.

We've often heard that rainforests are the lungs of the Earth, providing us with most of our required oxygen. While it is indeed true that rainforests may produce up to a quarter of atmospheric oxygen, most of it is consumed by the rainforests themselves by degradation of organic matter. Most of our atmospheric oxygen actually comes from the oceans.

Oxygen is produced during photosynthesis and all of the oxygen in the atmosphere has been produced by photosynthesising plants and bacteria. Because rainforests are luscious and fast-growing, it has become common to think of them as the lungs of the Earth. It is true that a lot of oxygen is produced there, but almost all of it is consumed simultaneously.

Yes, as far as I understand the Amazon's main ecological role is capturing carbon off the atmosphere (you know, the thing that's causing climate change), not producing oxygen. Still a pretty important role no matter how you want to put it.

And that's why calling it the lungs of the world is fake news.

For its importance to the world, the Amazon might as well be a metaphorical pair of lungs, and this analogy may have been helpful in galvanizing action around deforestation. But to most researchers, it doesn’t make much sense—not least because actual lungs inhale oxygen rather than exhaling it.

“If people want to relate it to a fundamental part of their body that maintains stability and maintains life, maintains wellbeing—symbolically, you can make some kind of association,” says Nobre. “But physically speaking, it’s not really the lungs of the world, no.”

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/why-amazon-doesnt-produce-20-percent-worlds-oxygen

[RicardoCampos]

Presidential vote in Brazil's largest city:
Apuração da Eleição 2022 por zona eleitoral para Presidente | SP - São Paulo | g1

The city center voting for Lula ✓
The periphery voting for Lula ✓
Upper/lower middle class voting for Bolsonaro ✓

The unusual: some wealthy neighborhoods in the West Zone voting for Lula

[RicardoCampos]

Mapa da apuração no Brasil para Governador | Eleições | 2022 | g1

The Brazil Governors Map is certainly the most bizarre map among all the countries on earth. I can't imagine any place that has so many parties with virtually no cohesion. If anyone knows, let me know, I would be very curious.

[Mike88]

Been playing around with the G1 website city map and, for fun, decided to make a comparison between the cities with the same names in Portugal and Brazil. Here are a few: (comparing this election with the Portuguese January election)

Barcelos BR: 65% Lula; 35% Bolsonaro
Barcelos PT: 53% Right; 44% Left

Santarém BR: 56% Bolsonaro; 44% Lula
Santarém PT: 52% Left; 45% Right

Portalegre BR: 70% Lula; 30% Bolsonaro
Portalegre PT: 53% Left; 45% Right

Aveiro BR: 60% Lula; 40% Bolsonaro
Aveiro PT: 49% Right; 48% Left

Vila Flor BR: 76% Lula; 24% Bolsonaro
Vila Flor PT: 50% Right; 47% Left

Alcobaça BR: 71% Lula; 29% Bolsonaro
Alcobaça PT: 52% Right; 44% Left

Almeirim BR: 70% Lula; 30% Bolsonaro
Almeirim PT: 59% Left; 38% Right

Borba BR: 79% Lula; 21% Bolsonaro
Borba PT: 68% Left; 30% Right

Batalha BR: 68% Lula; 32% Bolsonaro
Batalha PT: 60% Right; 36% Left

Coimbra BR: 64% Lula; 36% Bolsonaro
Coimbra PT: 58% Left; 39% Right

Porto BR: 76% Lula; 24% Bolsonaro
Porto PT: 50% Left; 48% Right

Faro BR: 80% Lula; 20% Bolsonaro
Faro PT: 55% Left; 41% Right

Ourém BR: 74% Lula; 26% Bolsonaro
Ourém PT: 65% Right; 31% Left

Just a few examples. Didn't realize that there are a ton of cities and villages with exact same names. Listing them all would be almost impossible.

[RicardoCampos]

Bolsonaro may be slow to respond to the election result, but part of his base has been rocket-fast.

Jovem Pan, the Brazilian Fox News, started making mass layoffs 1 day after Lula's election. The chosen ones: the most radical Bolsonaro supporters.

 

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Huge difference between Brazilians in continental countries in Eastern Asia, and ones in island nations nearby.
Why is that?

[buritobr]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

There are some cities in the US in which Brazilians voted in their consulates. The result in each city doesn't need to follow the democratic vs republican divide in the US, since the Brazilians didn't need to be similar to the Americans who live in these cities. So, it's possible that Bolsonaro win in a very heavy democratic city like Boston.

[buritobr]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Huge difference between Brazilians in continental countries in Eastern Asia, and ones in island nations nearby.
Why is that?

There is a large Brazilian population only in the US, Canada, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan. In the other countries, there are so few Brazilians that the result of the vote is very random. Depends on the political views of the members of the small group.

[buritobr]

Been playing around with the G1 website city map and, for fun, decided to make a comparison between the cities with the same names in Portugal and Brazil. Here are a few: (comparing this election with the Portuguese January election)

Barcelos BR: 65% Lula; 35% Bolsonaro
Barcelos PT: 53% Right; 44% Left

Santarém BR: 56% Bolsonaro; 44% Lula
Santarém PT: 52% Left; 45% Right

Portalegre BR: 70% Lula; 30% Bolsonaro
Portalegre PT: 53% Left; 45% Right

Aveiro BR: 60% Lula; 40% Bolsonaro
Aveiro PT: 49% Right; 48% Left

Vila Flor BR: 76% Lula; 24% Bolsonaro
Vila Flor PT: 50% Right; 47% Left

Alcobaça BR: 71% Lula; 29% Bolsonaro
Alcobaça PT: 52% Right; 44% Left

Almeirim BR: 70% Lula; 30% Bolsonaro
Almeirim PT: 59% Left; 38% Right

Borba BR: 79% Lula; 21% Bolsonaro
Borba PT: 68% Left; 30% Right

Batalha BR: 68% Lula; 32% Bolsonaro
Batalha PT: 60% Right; 36% Left

Coimbra BR: 64% Lula; 36% Bolsonaro
Coimbra PT: 58% Left; 39% Right

Porto BR: 76% Lula; 24% Bolsonaro
Porto PT: 50% Left; 48% Right

Faro BR: 80% Lula; 20% Bolsonaro
Faro PT: 55% Left; 41% Right

Ourém BR: 74% Lula; 26% Bolsonaro
Ourém PT: 65% Right; 31% Left

Just a few examples. Didn't realize that there are a ton of cities and villages with exact same names. Listing them all would be almost impossible.

Many cities in the state of Pará have similar name to cities in Portugal.

[RicardoCampos]

Voting map compared to various demographic maps:



Larger size maps:

• Vote
• GDP (per capita)
• Racial
• HDI
• Climate
• Densiti
• Religion

Racial map legend:

• Blue: white
• Green: multiracial
• Red: black
• Yellow: asian
• Brown: indigenous

Religion map: Other religions do not have a majority. Map source: Scielo. I found a map with more religions, but it's from 2002.