Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Cassius]

Isn’t Lula essentially not going to be able to govern if he doesn’t have the numbers in the legislative branch?

[icc]

Isn’t Lula essentially not going to be able to govern if he doesn’t have the numbers in the legislative branch?

I wouldn't claim to be an expert, but I think it would be a mistake to view most legislators as ideologically 'left' or 'right' - there are a large number who are essentially pork-barrel politicians.

[Red Velvet]

Isn’t Lula essentially not going to be able to govern if he doesn’t have the numbers in the legislative branch?

I wouldn't claim to be an expert, but I think it would be a mistake to view most legislators as ideologically 'left' or 'right' - there are a large number who are essentially pork-barrel politicians.

This. Brazilian congress in special is way more ideologically-fluid than most people get.

[Red Velvet]

In other news, Eduardo Leite (PSDB) was re-elected as RS governor to become first out GAY governor elected.

He wasn’t publicly out when he won the 1st time, but did it so since then. And still got reelected with a HIGHER % than he did in 2018 - although that happened because this time he was against a Bolsonarist.

In 2018, Leite won RS against MDB with 53,62%. Now he won against PL with 57,12%.

Still, quite striking how the fact he’s a gay man almost didn’t matter. Some of his opponent campaign was slightly homophobic (nothing too hard in order to not look aggressive) and dumb saying RS would get a “first-lady” again - as if many people cared about that lol. They didn’t and that’s refreshing.

[Red Velvet]

For all the talk about of geographic polarization, which of course is still strong since Lula won this pushed by his crazy margins in the Northeast, we actually got depolarization compared to 2018.

Big pushes in favor of Lula in the Southeast, which made Bolsonaro win with 10% less in heavily populated states like SP and RJ - it was around 65% Bolsonaro victory in 2018, now it was around 55% only in those two. Not to mention MG flipping back to PT, even if barely, which is always important as 2nd most populous state.

The Bolsonaro victory margins were lower in the Center-South regions in 2022, while the Northeast only slightly shifted to Bolsonaro in comparison to 2018, but still maintaining big margins in favor of PT. Which made it possible for them to cover the Bolsonaro wins in the Center-South.

[icc]

For all the talk about of geographic polarization, which of course is still strong since Lula won this pushed by his crazy margins in the Northeast, we actually got depolarization compared to 2018.

Big pushes in favor of Lula in the Southeast, which made Bolsonaro win with 10% less in heavily populated states like SP and RJ - it was around 65% Bolsonaro victory in 2018, now it was around 55% only in those two. Not to mention MG flipping back to PT, even if barely, which is always important as 2nd most populous state.

The Bolsonaro victory margins were lower in the Center-South regions in 2022, while the Northeast only slightly shifted to Bolsonaro in comparison to 2018, but still maintaining big margins in favor of PT. Which made it possible for them to cover the Bolsonaro wins in the Center-South.

Change in Bolsonaro vote (second round) between 2018 and 2022:

[Oakvale]

It's a bit of a cliché comparison to draw at this point but, as others have pointed out, the parallels really are eerie. A far-right demagogue, after four disastrous years in office, is defeated - by a disturbingly narrow margin - by an ageing veteran politician making a surprising comeback in the twilight of his career. It's nearly exactly like the Klagenfurt am Wörtherse mayoral election in 1966, where the incumbent, who was controversial for his policy of pumping mustard gas into primary schools, was eventually defeated by the liberal alternative (a former SS officer).

I guess this is what Marx meant when he said history repeats itself.

[John Dule]

Why did Bolsonaro do so well in Amapá? It's northern and pretty sparsely populated from what I can tell. Does not seem like his base.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro and his wife Michelle have stopped following each other on Instagram. His son Carlos Bolsonaro is doing the same and has stopped following Michelle.

So besides no pronunciation of the president after his electoral defeat (he just disappeared, didn’t say anything to recognize or deny the results), there’s also a personal marriage crisis potentially going on.

A crisis that likely existed before this campaign but that I think they tried to be private about it until the elections in order to not make it negative headlines that prejudiced Bolsonaro’s chances for this election. But now that election is over, is the divorce happening? To be seen in scenes of the next chapters…

[Orwell]

I forgot that a left winger attempted to assassinate Bolsonaro

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's a bit of a cliché comparison to draw at this point but, as others have pointed out, the parallels really are eerie. A far-right demagogue, after four disastrous years in office, is defeated - by a disturbingly narrow margin - by an ageing veteran politician making a surprising comeback in the twilight of his career. It's nearly exactly like the Klagenfurt am Wörtherse mayoral election in 1966, where the incumbent, who was controversial for his policy of pumping mustard gas into primary schools, was eventually defeated by the liberal alternative (a former SS officer).

I guess this is what Marx meant when he said history repeats itself.

You, sir, have won the Internet with that Tenderesque reference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's a bit of a cliché comparison to draw at this point but, as others have pointed out, the parallels really are eerie. A far-right demagogue, after four disastrous years in office, is defeated - by a disturbingly narrow margin - by an ageing veteran politician making a surprising comeback in the twilight of his career. It's nearly exactly like the Klagenfurt am Wörtherse mayoral election in 1966, where the incumbent, who was controversial for his policy of pumping mustard gas into primary schools, was eventually defeated by the liberal alternative (a former SS officer).

I guess this is what Marx meant when he said history repeats itself.

It wasn't mustard gas.  The school cafeteria overcooked the sauerkraut.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any word if/when Bolsonaro is going to concede? Will he just shut up and leave on New Year's Eve or are we headed for a Brazilian version of Trump's loss?

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

I know lefties are running victory laps here but the real story is that literally every Latin American government that ruled during the pandemic and held an election afterwards has lost.

Yes, but let's have a bit of fun before the inevitable Castillo impeachment and Argentina elections next year.

[Hash]

https://twitter.com/actis_esteban/status/1586850952493076480

Excluding dictatorships without free and fair elections (you know who you are) and the 2019 Bolivian election (annulled and coup'ed), since Iván Duque's victory in Colombia in 2018, the opposition side has won every election across Latin America. A few of these cases could be debatable - either because it's unclear who was the governing party continuity candidate (Peru, Ecuador) or because the winner was more or less the same ideologically as his predecessor (Guatemala).

The trend could continue in 2023 with Argentina but the first test of whether it continues will be Paraguay in April - incidentally, the 2018 Paraguayan election was the last victory of a governing party continuity candidate in Latin America. The Paraguayan opposition is broadly united and Efraín Alegre, who lost twice already in 2013 and 2018, should be its candidate against the governing Colorado Party, whose primaries should be won by Santiago Peña (candidate of corrupt former president Horacio Cartes, internal rival and political enemy of the outgoing president) -- too early to say who will win.

[Sir Mohamed]

I know, it's extremely early for that, but is it possible Jair Bolsonaro runs again in 2026? I think it might also become an issue whether Lula runs again or not, due to advanced age. So basically this is also a post-2020 Biden-Trump situation, Brazil edition.

[Mike88]

Pro-Bolsonaro truck drivers are blocking roads across the country, in protest against Lula's election victory:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pro-Bolsonaro truck drivers are blocking roads across the country, in protest against Lula's election victory:

The butthurt begins!

[Edu]

and Argentina elections next year.

Hopefully! it could be one bright spot out of the darkness that happened since 2019

[Red Velvet]

Any word if/when Bolsonaro is going to concede? Will he just shut up and leave on New Year's Eve or are we headed for a Brazilian version of Trump's loss?

Bolsonaro just disappeared and said nothing to recognize or deny the electoral result, which sends the message of acknowledgment of defeat regardless, between the lines. It would be extremely weird and unconvincing if one week after the election he suddenly started attacking the results.

No one knows if he plans on saying something or not. But his congress opportunity allies of Centrão already recognized Lula wins.

It’s much calmer than everyone was predicting. The only sign of chaos today is these truck drivers who happen to be Bolsonarists blocking the roads in protest and making people traveling be mad they have to stay the whole day on a stopped road. That’s a minor thing though, the general vibe here is of celebration from the winners and I would say even relief in a broader sense with the hope maybe things could return to some level of peace, without so much divide.

Most of the fighting is more nonsense scaremongering than necessarily strong ideological divide imo and I think some part (not all) just want to go back to not being as obsessed by politics.

[kaoras]

and Argentina elections next year.

Hopefully! it could be one bright spot out of the darkness that happened since 2019

I know better than support Kirchnerism because "Muh leftism" but, forgive me if I'm wrong, wasn't the reason Fernandez won that Macri was also incompetent at dealing with the long-term economic issues and that the current government has only seen the continuation of that decline, exacerbated by the pandemic?

At this point I believe that Juntos por el Cambio is less incompetent that Kirchnerism but would they be really able to turn things around?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any word if/when Bolsonaro is going to concede? Will he just shut up and leave on New Year's Eve or are we headed for a Brazilian version of Trump's loss?

Apparently the Brazilian Election Commission responsible for certifying the results (which is basically a council of judges) even before the election was taking preparation and is upping security for its members. However they don't officially certify until December 19, so there's plenty of time for him to pull some hijinks. I wouldn't expect much beyond a bunch of obnoxious "Pare O Roubo" rallies though.

[Edu]

I know better than support Kirchnerism because "Muh leftism" but, forgive me if I'm wrong, wasn't the reason Fernandez won that Macri was also incompetent at dealing with the long-term economic issues and that the current government has only seen the continuation of that decline, exacerbated by the pandemic?

At this point I believe that Juntos por el Cambio is less incompetent that Kirchnerism but would they be really able to turn things around?

I answered over here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=491137.0

So we don't clutter a thread dedicated to Lula's victory

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1586836574980931593

I know lefties are running victory laps here but the real story is that literally every Latin American government that ruled during the pandemic and held an election afterwards has lost.

Yes, but let's have a bit of fun before the inevitable Castillo impeachment and Argentina elections next year.

This map is more... accurate:
https://twitter.com/bloggingsbyboz/status/1587027740808585216

[ottermax]

I'm sure this has been explained many times here but is there a reason that the biggest states with metropolitan centers like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, or even Brasilia vote quite right of the country? I feel like their equivalents in the US (CA, NY, DC) are core to the Democratic Party...

Likewise, how has PT held up in the NE? Is this simply a matter of class based politics remaining as the main dividing line? I'm just surprised that a "fascist" president would get so much support from the "educated elite" sections of the country - but maybe I just don't understand the inhabitants of Southern Brazil.