Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Crumpets]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Tossup Iran and China! Democracy lives!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

[H. Ross Peron]

Now, talking about the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ
2022 was the 3rd time PT lost in the city. The other 2 were 1994 and 1998. It is the first time in the New Republic (1985-present) that the left wins a presidential election without winning Rio. Before 2022, the last time a candidate supported by a labor party was elected president without winning Rio was Juscelino Kubitschek in 1955.
In 2022, there was no clear income polarization in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro won Barra da Tijuca, a wealthy neighborhood in the West Zone, but he also won the poor neighborhoods in the West Zone. Lula won all the wealthy South Zone (neighborhoods of Leblon, Ipanema, Copacabana, Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras) and also some favelas in the North Zone. Bolsonaro won some poor neighborhoods which are not favelas in the North Zone.
The "bourgueous elites" live in Barra da Tijuca. The "bohemian elites" live in the South Zone.
It's only the third time PT wins in the South Zone. The other 2 were 1989 and 2002. In 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, PT won Rio de Janeiro without winning the South Zone.
Rio de Janeiro used to have a classic income polarization, but a realigment took place in the 2010s. It starts when the leftist Marcelo Freixo ran for mayor, lost the election but won the South Zone. At the beggining, it look like that those results were only a consequence of Freixo's popularity in the South Zone, but after that, all the elections in Rio de Janeiro started to have similar votting pattern: left doing better in the Zone South

Great Rio analysis. It’s exactly like that. The ones who vote for Lula here are different from the rest of the country.

The “cultured well-educated upper classes” from South Zone + Residents of Favelas are the ones who voted for Lula

Meanwhile the “uncultured dumb rich who want to live isolated from the world by living in Barra da Tijuca” + Residents of Militia areas or Poorer non-favela areas voted for Bolsonaro.

Excellent analysis. Have a few questions:

1. Is this the first time since at least the mid 20th Century Sao Paulo voted to the left of Rio?

2. What is the social characteristic of "militia" areas in Rio? Are they working class or more lower middle class? I guess the difference between the favelas and pro Bolsonaro lower income areas are that the former are totally destitute as opposed to just low income?

[Red Velvet]

Now, talking about the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ
2022 was the 3rd time PT lost in the city. The other 2 were 1994 and 1998. It is the first time in the New Republic (1985-present) that the left wins a presidential election without winning Rio. Before 2022, the last time a candidate supported by a labor party was elected president without winning Rio was Juscelino Kubitschek in 1955.
In 2022, there was no clear income polarization in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro won Barra da Tijuca, a wealthy neighborhood in the West Zone, but he also won the poor neighborhoods in the West Zone. Lula won all the wealthy South Zone (neighborhoods of Leblon, Ipanema, Copacabana, Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras) and also some favelas in the North Zone. Bolsonaro won some poor neighborhoods which are not favelas in the North Zone.
The "bourgueous elites" live in Barra da Tijuca. The "bohemian elites" live in the South Zone.
It's only the third time PT wins in the South Zone. The other 2 were 1989 and 2002. In 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, PT won Rio de Janeiro without winning the South Zone.
Rio de Janeiro used to have a classic income polarization, but a realigment took place in the 2010s. It starts when the leftist Marcelo Freixo ran for mayor, lost the election but won the South Zone. At the beggining, it look like that those results were only a consequence of Freixo's popularity in the South Zone, but after that, all the elections in Rio de Janeiro started to have similar votting pattern: left doing better in the Zone South

Great Rio analysis. It’s exactly like that. The ones who vote for Lula here are different from the rest of the country.

The “cultured well-educated upper classes” from South Zone + Residents of Favelas are the ones who voted for Lula

Meanwhile the “uncultured dumb rich who want to live isolated from the world by living in Barra da Tijuca” + Residents of Militia areas or Poorer non-favela areas voted for Bolsonaro.

Excellent analysis. Have a few questions:

1. Is this the first time since at least the mid 20th Century Sao Paulo voted to the left of Rio?

2. What is the social characteristic of "militia" areas in Rio? Are they working class or more lower middle class? I guess the difference between the favelas and pro Bolsonaro lower income areas are that the former are totally destitute as opposed to just low income?

Not sure about the specific data, but Rio used to vote for the left of São Paulo. Maybe it is, although in 2018 Rio already shifted a lot to the right with Bolsonaro (but SP still didn’t shift as left as they did now so idk)

Militia areas are often lower middle class but not a rule. They can spread from poorer areas than that to even areas of upper class neighborhoods, like Recreio and Barra da Tijuca. Of course militias “adapt” their behavior accordingly to the place they operate.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Has Bolsonaro been sighted yet?

[Red Velvet]

Has Bolsonaro been sighted yet?

No, he just disappeared completely since Election Day.

[crals]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

They are mostly of Japanese descent and follow the pattern of other Japanese-Brazilians

[DL]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Huge difference between Brazilians in continental countries in Eastern Asia, and ones in island nations nearby.
Why is that?

There is a large Brazilian population only in the US, Canada, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan. In the other countries, there are so few Brazilians that the result of the vote is very random. Depends on the political views of the members of the small group.

How did Brazilians in Canada vote?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Huge difference between Brazilians in continental countries in Eastern Asia, and ones in island nations nearby.
Why is that?

There is a large Brazilian population only in the US, Canada, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan. In the other countries, there are so few Brazilians that the result of the vote is very random. Depends on the political views of the members of the small group.

How did Brazilians in Canada vote?

Somewhere between Lula 55%-67.5% if I had to guess.

[MaxQue]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Huge difference between Brazilians in continental countries in Eastern Asia, and ones in island nations nearby.
Why is that?

There is a large Brazilian population only in the US, Canada, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan. In the other countries, there are so few Brazilians that the result of the vote is very random. Depends on the political views of the members of the small group.

How did Brazilians in Canada vote?

62-38 for Lula. He got 71% in Quebec City, 69% in Montreal, 66% in Vancouver, 64% in Ottawa, 56% in Toronto, 54% in Winnipeg and 53% in Calgary.

[Pres Mike]

What time is Bolsonaro expected to speak today?

[Red Velvet]

What time is Bolsonaro expected to speak today?

He isn’t. There’s nothing scheduled, that was only a media expectation based on conversation with people on his team. He may or may not say something today. Or in other days.

[Aurelius]

For all the talk about of geographic polarization, which of course is still strong since Lula won this pushed by his crazy margins in the Northeast, we actually got depolarization compared to 2018.

Big pushes in favor of Lula in the Southeast, which made Bolsonaro win with 10% less in heavily populated states like SP and RJ - it was around 65% Bolsonaro victory in 2018, now it was around 55% only in those two. Not to mention MG flipping back to PT, even if barely, which is always important as 2nd most populous state.

The Bolsonaro victory margins were lower in the Center-South regions in 2022, while the Northeast only slightly shifted to Bolsonaro in comparison to 2018, but still maintaining big margins in favor of PT. Which made it possible for them to cover the Bolsonaro wins in the Center-South.

Change in Bolsonaro vote (second round) between 2018 and 2022:

Eerily similar to the US trends from 2016 to 2020.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm very surprised Brazilians in singapore went for Lula, I would think it would attract finance workers and other sorts of professionals that would be inclined to support Bolsonaro

[Mike88]

It seems that Bolsonaro wanted to meet with the Judges of the Supreme Court, but they rejected saying they will only talk to him when he concedes the election.

[DL]

I'm very surprised Brazilians in singapore went for Lula, I would think it would attract finance workers and other sorts of professionals that would be inclined to support Bolsonaro

Its possible that many are also working as domestics etc...

[President Johnson]

So apparently Bolsonaro will accept his defeat.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1587526408418611200

[jaymichaud]

Lmao a PT-supporting friend (originally from a city in the North) said that Bolsonaro supporters were calling for impeachment 2 hours after Lula won.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm very surprised Brazilians in singapore went for Lula, I would think it would attract finance workers and other sorts of professionals that would be inclined to support Bolsonaro

Its possible that many are also working as domestics etc...

I would be extremely suprised, almost all of those workers come from SEA or asia, brazil isn't that poor that blue collar work like that would come here.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro just made a very short 2 minute speech saying that he will follow the constitution. A minister of his later said they will initiate government transition procedures.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bolsonaro just made a very short 2 minute speech saying that he will follow the constitution. A minister of his later said they will initiate government transition procedures.

"I'm not saying that I lost, but according to the constitution I will stop being president."

[buritobr]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amazing that Bolsonaro is turning out to be the Virgin Sore Loser when we all expected him to be the Chad Sore Loser.

[mileslunn]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

[Mike88]

Bolsonaro just made a very short 2 minute speech saying that he will follow the constitution. A minister of his later said they will initiate government transition procedures.

"I'm not saying that I lost, but according to the consititution I will stop being president."

Taking into account the personality and the circumstances, it's better than nothing.